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Election talk (15)
Thu, 2011-04-28 14:16
#1
Election talk (15)
Thu, 2011-04-28 14:27
#2
It is very important to stay om message and not get sidetracted by the attacks on the NDP, and probably the best way of doing that is listen to what Jack is saying at the rallies because we don't seem to be getting many talking points from Head Office. You can check the NDP.ca website, and watch and listen to Layton at his rallies on CPAC, and CTV has reasonably good coverage as well, at least compared to the CBC.
Today Layton is attacking subsidies and tax breaks to large oil companies and banks who do not need any finacial assistance as they are extremely profitable as it is. So use what Jack says as your cue.
Thu, 2011-04-28 14:34
#3
Why has Harper allowed gas prices to rise in Canada when we have an abundance of oil in Canada? Why hasn't Harper proteced the Canadian consumer by shifting us into green energy?
Harper predicts pain at gas pumps should Layton grab share of power
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/harper-predicts-pain-at-gas-pumps-should-layton-grab-share-of-power/article2002089/
Thu, 2011-04-28 14:43
#4
Here you go.
Short answer- money is going to be the least of the Liberals problems.And I dont just mean that the other problems are so bad.
Its not true that their supporters will bail them out. Yes, the Liberals can always get a lot of bodies to a rally. But thats it, for 10 years their ability to raise money and run campaigns has been eroding. All they can do is get those loyal bodies to the rally.
But the LPC has little debt. While their fundraising is weak, they are in our league on that score. Their big issue is the bloated administration that the brain trust[s] have unable to force change and cuts against the resistnace of the grassroots. That dead end discussion has just been 'resolved'. The LPC organization will have to be rebuilt entirely- way too big and way too stupid. That isnt going to be easy- but the size of the new organization will simply be matching the revenue.
It was in response to a post by Pogo in the previous topic.
Thu, 2011-04-28 14:50
#5
KenS, do you know how in debt the Liberals are? How easy is it to guess at their revenue prospects with a 25% 50-60 seat election?
Short answer- money is going to be the least of the Liberals problems.
And I dont just mean that the other problems are so bad.
Its not true that their supporters will bail them out. Yes, the Liberals can always get a lot of bodies to a rally. But thats it, for 10 years their ability to raise money and run campaigns has been eroding. All they can do is get those loyal bodies to the rally.
But the LPC has little debt. While their fundraising is weak, they are in our league on that score. Their big issue is the bloated administration that the brain trust[s] have unable to force change and cuts against the resistnace of the grassroots. That dead end discussion has just been 'resolved'. The LPC organization will have to be rebuilt entirely- way too big and way too stupid. That isnt going to be easy- but the size of the new organization will simply be matching the revenue.
Thu, 2011-04-28 14:57
#6
Thanks for doing that.
I found the post on a 'loose window'. My connection is so mindnumbingly slow that I probably re-posted it several minutes before you did.
Thu, 2011-04-28 15:03
#7
Platforms pro-internet, except Conservative: report
Big investments in Canadian internet access and changes to the way the internet is regulated have been promised all major federal parties except the Conservatives, a survey by an internet lobby group says.
"The major parties - with the notable exception of the Conservatives - have responded to the desire for pro-internet commitments this election," said a statement Thursday by Vancouver-based Open Media, a group that lobbies for an "open an innovative communications system in Canada."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2011/04/28/technology-internet-e...
Thu, 2011-04-28 15:33
#8
Layton is on CPAC right now up in the Territories getting thoroughly grilled by the media - he's handling it well but it is very intense.
Thu, 2011-04-28 16:13
#9
I was watching the same thing on CPAC and the media was going after him. The vacation candidate and one candidate that did not knew french in a Quebec riding. Jack gave the stock answer on first(fixed election dates) and he said that other knew french. After a couple minutes they gave up and moved on to new questions. You got to accept Jack is going to get some tough questions. The media is looking for a weakness to pounce on but he gave stock answers(we have a great team and thats it). Maybe the political shows will run something on it. Jack gave answers that can not used to attack the party.
Thu, 2011-04-28 16:52
#10
If there is any way to get those candidates back in their ridings it would be helpful. And apparently the candidate is bilingual. Liberals feed the media a lot of lies.
Thu, 2011-04-28 17:01
#11
Not again!
Conservative volunteer charged with breaching bail after trip with MP
http://www.brandonsun.com/national/breaking-news/conservative-volunteer-...
Thu, 2011-04-28 17:29
#12
Malcolm
Another useful line re: the one candidate would be something to the effect of:
- So, if a 30-something single mother who works in the service industry and has no desire to be a career politician "accidentally" becomes a Member of Parliament, why exactly is that so bad?
Thu, 2011-04-28 17:38
#13
Thu, 2011-04-28 17:58
#14
Northern Shoveler
The shadow candidates that all parties run is not a big secret for many Canadians. Good on Jack to throw the names of the Liberal place holders back in Iggy's face. I loved the tag line on the Globe piece. On March 31 I would have bet a million dollars I wouldn't be quoting the Globe coverage in the last week.
But with the NDP now far ahead of all other parties in Quebec, many of these placeholders could find themselves in Parliament. When similar political wildfires ignited mass stampedes to a political party in the past – such as to Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives in 1984 or to Bob Rae’s NDP in Ontario in 1990 – some of the new arrivals acquitted themselves well, while others proved embarrassing.
But when it comes to having candidates elected in ridings that were once considered longer-than-long shots, the Liberal Leader should have such troubles.
Thu, 2011-04-28 18:36
#15
Steve_Shutt
Has Jack, or the other leaders, expressed any condolences or offers of support to those hit by the US tornados?
Thu, 2011-04-28 18:42
#16
Harper is now warning that NDP will harm relationship with the US. That will sure explain why he appointed Gary Doer to be our US Ambassador.
Thu, 2011-04-28 18:54
#17
Watching Power and Politics panel right now with Judy WL (NDP), Jaime Watt (Tory) and Alf Apps (Liberal). They've got Watt and Apps sitting next to each other in the studio, with Judy via satellite. With their physical resemblance, Watt and Apps look like Tweedle-dee and Tweedle-dum sitting next to each other there. They are training all their fire on Judy and the NDP and are sounding hysterical and angry doing it.
I think the image for the viewers is great: a) they both sound hysterical about the NDP and b) it reinforces the fact that there is no real difference between the Liberals and Tories - all they know how to do is be negative. Feeds right into the NDP's narrative for the whole campaign.
Solomon doesn't like the tag-team on Judy and he's just got a couple good shots in at Apps and Watt.
Judy just scored a good point on Apps' arrogant attitude and said that it shows why the Liberals are in such a mess right now.
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:02
#18
Harper is now warning that NDP will harm relationship with the US. That will sure explain why he appointed Gary Doer to be our US Ambassador.
Exactly. We won't even have to change ambassadors. Everything will be fine.
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:06
#19
Wakie, wakie Tim, you're a little late coming to the party.
Tim Harper: Winds of change buffet Harper
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982316--tim-harper-w...
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:14
#20
Harper is now warning that NDP will harm relationship with the US. That will sure explain why he appointed Gary Doer to be our US Ambassador.
Exactly. We won't even have to change ambassadors. Everything will be fine.
What do you mean? The least Jack could do would be to appoint a social democrat.
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:20
#21
Ha! 
I suppose they will have to revise their spying assessment of Canada's current political situation
Another very misleading headline from the CBC.
'No hope' NDP will govern: 2008 WikiLeaks cable
Layton, NDP's election plan detailed in leaked U.S. document
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/28/cv-elec...
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:26
#22
Catchfire
I know a version of this thread is still active, but I think it might be a good time to revisit NorthReport's preposterous prediction (made in November of last year!) that The Layton-led NDP will become the Official Opposition after the next election. Incredibly, it appears that NR simply was not ambitious enough. NR also ludicrously suggested that the NDP's breakthrough would come in Québec; and, as if that wasn't enough, NR mused that it wouldn't be long before Michael Harris lost his job at the Sun!
Surely this is an example of stopped-clock syndrome, isn't it? Or does babble really have its own electoral Nostradamus?
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:47
#23
I have to admit that at the start of the campaign I thought that a modest NDP gain of 10 seats would be a significant victory. I also thought that the NDP's potential in Quebec was limited to 3 seats. While we won't know until after the votes are counted, unless the polls are way off or there is a perverse distribution of NDP support in Quebec, the NDP should see significant seat gains in Quebec. Let's hope so, because even with the current NDP surge, I don't really see a net gain of much more than 15 seats in the ROC. If the NDP is going to pass the Liberals as Official Opposition, they will need to gain at least that number in Quebec.
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:55
#24
Damn it Catchfire, what I meant to say was the NDP was going to win the most number of seats in this election, and it would be Prime-Minister elect Jack Layton late on Monday nite. 
PS That is assuming Harper was not lying again when he said that the party which wins the most number of seats gets to govern.
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:57
#25
How's this for a seat projection?
NDP - 115 seats
Cons - 110 seats
Libs - 65 seats
Bloc - 18 seats
Quote
The At Issue panel treated the surge as a fait accompli; we are, in other words, no longer at the point of shooting milk through our nose. Remember that thing I said about non-belief turning into belief, Jack is not Ed, the word on the street living in 1988, all that we need to know is that we don't actually believe what we think we believe? We're way past that point. The surge is real, people realize it's real, the other parties realize its real, the press treats it as real, and it was already real on the weekend, when people came out in disproportionate numbers to vote in the advance poll, 33-per-cent more than in 2008. If that translated on election day, we're talking 75 per cent of the population voting rather than 58 per cent. So we're talking new voters, no doubt. Ignatieff's message today is that the Liberal voters who didn't come out in 2008 are back, and he's right - they are back with a vengeance, and they're voting NDP.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:06
#26
Tory strategist says he advised Sun Media, and worked for political war room
http://www.brandonsun.com/national/breaking-news/tory-strategist-says-he...
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:16
#27
Hmm, our candidate in Surrey North, Jasbir Sandhu, was just featured on Mark Kelley's 'Connect the Vote' on CBC News and did not come across too well. He froze up twice when asked some pretty basic questions - eg "What does the NDP need to do to win this riding?". Fortunately the Tories looked worse, with Kelley mocking Dona Cadman for running a 'stealth', 'duck-and-run' campaign. He even went to her office and the volunteers couldn't even tell her where she was.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:30
#28
knownothing
Here is a Wikileaks cable about how the NDP will never govern from 2008
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/28/cv-elec...
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:34
#29
Boom Boom
Pundit on CTV's dinnertime politics show said Peter McKay and Lawrence Cannon are both going to be given the boot Monday.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:34
#30
bagkitty
ROB ANDERS SPEAKS!.... or is that he whines? Some of us were beginning to think he not only had the graveyard vote, but was part of it himself.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:36
#31
Cannon's been rumoured to be in trouble for a long time, but this is the first I've heard any pundits in the MSM suggest McKay could be facing defeat.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:40
#32
That Muttart/Peladeau thing is just weird.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:41
#33
Boom Boom
First time I heard McKay was in trouble, too. Don't know from who.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:41
#34
Dunno if this has already been posted - if so pardon me - but I had to share this, oddly also from the CBC, and surprisingly sympathetic:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/27/cv-elec...
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:49
#35
Electionprediction.org has Davenport as TCTC. Given that it's run by Liberal supporters, if even they are admitting that Silva is having a rough time of it, then Silva is in trouble.
Thu, 2011-04-28 20:56
#36
This looks promising:
NDP Leader Layton returns to Kamloops
He's back.
For the second time this election campaign, NDP Leader Jack Layton will make an appearance in the Tournament Capital.
On Friday, April 29, at 9:30 a.m., Layton will take part in a rally outside NDP candidate Michael Crawford's campaign office at 542 Tranquille Rd. in North Kamloops.
The event is open to the public.
Layton's second appearance appears to be a sign the party believes it has a good chance of winning the Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo riding.
http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_thompson_nicola/kamloopsthisweek/news/1209...
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:02
#37
If Warren Kinsella says B-EY is solid then I expect it could be the first riding to fall on election night
P.S. It would make sense too. B-EY votes NDP provincially but Davenport doesn't.
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:06
#38
bagkitty
[...] and as the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats...
I thought I had issued a warning about using that phrase. Please notify your next of kin ghoris... they can identify your body by the friction burns after I beat you to death with my foam rubber baseball bat. 
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:10
#39
Electionprediction.org has Davenport as TCTC. Given that it's run by Liberal supporters, if even they are admitting that Silva is having a rough time of it, then Silva is in trouble.
Ditto Beaches-East York. Warren Kinsella, who lives in the riding, seems to think the Grits are in trouble everywhere except B-EY, telling Liberals not to worry and that Minna is "solid". The Liberals keep harping that if someone like Marilyn Churley couldn't take Minna down, a 'no-name' like Matthew Kellway has no shot. Of course, the NDP wasn't riding at 30 percent in the polls when Churley ran, and as the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats...
Incidentally, EPP is projecting 58 Liberal seats (vs. 37 NDP and 44 TCTC). Although that number struck me as high, once I started going through I only found maybe 10 Liberal calls that I thought should be TCTC rather than Liberal. There are about 30 TCTC seats that the Liberals could win. While it's doubtful they'll run the table in the TCTC seats, I still think that the Liberals are reasonably assured of at least 60 seats on E-Day, even with their current polling numbers.
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:11
#40
I live in a safe NDP seat. Tomorrow I am heading out of town to work in some ridings where the vote splits are hard to predict and a solid ground effort could make the difference.
I hope that others around the country are doing similar things. There are many ridings that are close but under-resourced where a few extra bodies with energy and commitment could be a big help.
My connection to the ridings I'll be working in is family. I haven't heard of any organized effort to get people into ridings where they need help. If those kinds of things are happening, great. If not, they should be. If anybody has those kind of connections, now would be a good time to put a bug in somebody's ear.
The progressive community has little cash, but a large network. Aside from talking a lot about policy arcana, doing a lot with a little is probably our strongest collective talent. Now would be a really great time to bring those two things to bear.
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:12
#41
@bagkitty: Didn't see the warning but I will try to refrain from using that phrase in the future.
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:12
#42
I thought I had issued a warning about using that phrase. Please notify your next of kin ghoris... they can identify your body by the friction burns after I beat you to death with my foam rubber baseball bat.
Why not set squirrels on ghoris? Kill two birds with one stone, there
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:13
#43
+ + +
The Straight slate for the 2011 federal election
Vancouver Kingsway
Don Davies (NDP)
When you see Jack Layton having such great success on the federal campaign trail, give some of the credit to the humble, hardworking incumbent politician who represented Vancouver Kingsway in the last Parliament. As the NDP's public-safety critic, Don Davies had a difficult task. The Conservatives were intent on making themselves look as tough as possible on crime, and painting their opponents as a bunch of wimps. Davies, a lawyer, fired back that the Harper government hadn't provided enough resources to law-enforcement agencies and didn't create a single police-officer position in the federal budget.
Davies also played a leading role in holding the Conservatives to account for the billion-dollar G20 security fiasco in Toronto, where scores of peaceful demonstrators were arrested. He has drawn attention to the federal government's decision to cut funding to a Vancouver aboriginal youth outreach centre, linking this to Harper's unwillingness to invest in crime prevention.
In addition, Davies has been a strong advocate for immigrants, highlighting the plight of temporary foreign workers and the mean-spirited move against family reunification.
Liberal candidate Wendy Yuan, a businesswoman, is running against Davies for a second time. It's really a two-person race, though the NDP is clearly in the preferred position, given its standing in recent election polls in B.C. Yuan has an environmental bent, having backed Stéphane Dion's Liberal leadership candidacy in 2006. Her first language is Mandarin, which gives her a communications advantage with first-generation immigrants from mainland China. She is focusing her campaign on the economy and the federal Liberals' "Canadian Learning Passport", which will provide a maximum of $6,000 in postsecondary funding to low-income students.
The Conservative candidate, Trang Nguyen, is a Vietnamese-Canadian entrepreneur. The Communist Party of Canada candidate, Kimball Cariou, is active in the peace movement and is editor of the People's Voice. He's also a dedicated social activist, but it would take a miracle for him to get elected. The Green candidate, real-estate agent Louise Boutin, cochairs the programs committee at the Kensington Community Centre.
http://www.straight.com/article-390033/vancouver/straight-slate
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:17
#44
Four things we've learned about Stephen Harper
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/four-things-weve-learned-ab...
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:21
#45
Layton vows to hit the ground running
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982408--layton-vows-...
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:24
#46
Electionprediction.org has Davenport as TCTC. Given that it's run by Liberal supporters, if even they are admitting that Silva is having a rough time of it, then Silva is in trouble.Ditto Beaches-East York. Warren Kinsella, who lives in the riding, seems to think the Grits are in trouble everywhere except B-EY, telling Liberals not to worry and that Minna is "solid". The Liberals keep harping that if someone like Marilyn Churley couldn't take Minna down, a 'no-name' like Matthew Kellway has no shot. Of course, the NDP wasn't riding at 30 percent in the polls when Churley ran, and as the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats...
And a real dark horse in that end of town is the next riding over, Scarborough Southwest--esp. given the Tamil Tiger controversy over the Conservative candidate, and Dan Harris running again.
As for EPP, I erred on the side of Silva Liberal in my entry--back in 2009; remember, the page has been up that long (and the Bryantgate ref definitely dates it)--but "with allowance".
09 09 03 A.S. 99.232.162.133 While federally, the NDP took brilliant advantage of the Charles Caccia ouster in 2004, their share has actually fallen in the two elections since (not fatally, mind you--though here, too, was that weird '08 trend of the NDP losing significant ground in formerly congenial Dufferin-Grove-ian turf). And while the Greens (benefitting, too, from local Frank De Jong's provincial leadership) had their highest-profile 2008 Toronto candidate in bike messenger activist Wayne Scott (and just the thing to steal the NDP urban-activist base), it's otherwise too poor/ethnic a seat to be Green-winnable--though there'd certainly be an inadvertent ‘Bryantgate’ dynamic if Wayne Scott ran again. Reluctantly, I'll give this to the Liberals once again; but it all depends on which (and how effective a) strategy the NDP has up its sleeve...
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:45
#47
I'd say Scarborough-Rouge River is also a dark horse, but agree that Scarborough-SW has more dark horse cred.
Thu, 2011-04-28 21:57
#48
I'd say Scarborough-Rouge River is also a dark horse, but agree that Scarborough-SW has more dark horse cred.
More *historical* dark horse cred, i.e. not just federally w/John Harney, but even more so provincially w/Stephen Lewis and Richard Johnston. And Dan Harris has a pair of millimetre-behind-CPC 20%+ finishes ('04, '06) under his belt.
S-RR, though, is a dark horse of a different feather, and the kind which'd been wildly inconceivable before the present surge--helps that it's an open seat, too. Watch this one flabbergast the pundits. (When driving through a couple of pre-surge weeks ago, I was already surprised by the NDP yard-sign action there--wonder what it's like now...)
Thu, 2011-04-28 22:09
#49
remind
Hmm, our candidate in Surrey North, Jasbir Sandhu, was just featured on Mark Kelley's 'Connect the Vote' on CBC News and did not come across too well. He froze up twice when asked some pretty basic questions - eg "What does the NDP need to do to win this riding?". Fortunately the Tories looked worse, with Kelley mocking Dona Cadman for running a 'stealth', 'duck-and-run' campaign. He even went to her office and the volunteers couldn't even tell her where she was.
Hmmmm...saw him featured on a Global clip last evening and he performed very well, and Global also made a big deal out of Cadman's non-campaign. Even going so far as to show a snip of her at the Canuck's game. Guess if her constituents want to see her and ask questions they need to go to a hockey game.
Thu, 2011-04-28 22:20
#50
S-RR, though, is a dark horse of a different feather
A horse with feathers? A strange beast, indeed.
Thu, 2011-04-28 22:27
#51
Well, "horsefeathers" is what the big media pundits would have thought of Layton contending for 24 Sussex a couple of weeks ago.