Election talk (15)

takeitslowly wrote:

will giving tax cuts to small business really create jobs? does anyone know?

Contrary to what corporations would have Canadians think, it is actually small to medium businesses that are job creators and have the largest segment of employees.

Corporations are actually a minus job producer and a drag on communities. yet they get the most tax breaks and subsidies.

@takeitslowly:

The key part of the proposal is the condition it create jobs in Canada that stay here. I have read many such proposals from people like Jim Stafford, and Armin Yalnizyan of the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives, among others, have advanced these ideas in various similar formats. While it isn't a solution on its own, it should target money towards the kind of real small business companies that create and then offer meaningful employment.

I am not an economist, but have read a great deal on this. This is a good proposal, as it doesn't throw money towards large corporations who generally keep this money to pad profits, and pay out higher amounts of employee compensation, and larger dividends to stock holders.

If there are any professional economists or economics professors lurking around here, now would be a great time to give us some more insight into this.

I'll add another dark horse to the mix: Bramalea-Gore-Malton

In a brief CP piece on the G&M site, Alan Gregg discusses the NDP surge in quite dramatic terms, the unprecedented engagement of the electorate and the desperate LPC & CPC response to it. Among other things he makes the critical point that the tried and true strategy of demonizing the NDP no longer works because "the NDP isn't scary anymore". He characterizes a NDP official opposition of over 100 seat as quite conceivable. This is a conservative pollster talking...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/video/video-polls-show-ndp-gaining-o...

North Report I thought we agreed that there will be the highest number of close races. It is too early to say Liberals will have 35-40 seats max. They are polling between 21-23 now and could in fact increase slightly. They also have advantages of a large number of incumbents. If the NDP polled 21-23 we would expect about 50 seats. I can see the Liberals get anywhere between 25 and 70 seats. I can't see how you can say their upper limit is 40.

Let's do the math on the Liberals chances:

West 2-10 There are currently several seats that were 2-way races between the Cons and Liberals-- with them now 3-way races the Liberals might squeak through in some cases. They also have chances in Manitoba of saving a couple seats and Wascana.

Ontario 15-40 There are a pile of ridings where the NDP was almost in the single digits. Even if the NDP makes those 3-way races -- the Liberals are going to win some. The Cons are not that strong. If they go down to 15-- we are looking at a massive Con Majority.

Quebec 1-5 With the BQ this week and the real chance of 4-way races in Quebec you have to assume the Liberals or any of the 4 parties could win in some places.

Atlantic Canada 7-15 The Liberals depending on the splits could get as many as 15 including possible sweeping the 4 PEI seats.

That is a range of 25-70 and they could still keep Yukon.

The NDP's range is just as great probably between 50 and 100 seats.

The BQ could do anywhere between 15 and 30 seats (they could lose a pile but also take from both the cons and Liberals.

The Cons could do anywhere between 100 and 165 but likely will sit at the low end of that.

We have the highest number of undecided seats that could go anywhere on Monday.

We have a full 3 days of red scare tactics with full court media press to go through before voting begins.

BC could make a huge the difference this election, so a huge rally is imparitive to create momentum right before election day.

JACK’S BACK!

Join Jack Layton and your BC New Democrat team for one final, massive rally this Saturday.

Date: Saturday, April 30
Time: 12:30pm
Location: First Avenue Film Studio
4088 1st Ave, Burnaby BC.
Southwest Corner of First Ave. and Gilmore Ave.

Closest Skytrain is Gilmore Skytrain Station

Event Date and Time
Saturday, April 30 - 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm

Event Location
First Avenue Film Studio 4088 1st Ave, Burnaby BC. Southwest Corner of First Ave. and Gilmore Ave.

Transit directions:
From Gilmore Skytrain station, walk 500m NORTH along Gilmore Avenue.

The rally is next to Gilmore Skytrain Station so it's easy to get to.

Gilmore Station is on the Millennium Line.

(While travelling to the event via Skytrain people can contemplate how an NDP government could improve public transit)

If this election campaign could go on until Jack Layton's NDP hit its peak in the polls, what would you all say that peak would be? +40% and majority government in terms of seats?

How resilient would this NDP surge be to a more drawn-out, small-c conservative backlash?

those polls all cover the same period (e.g. same days) so it's a good thing they all show the NDP at the same strength. More tellingly though, the ones that run a few days later have the NDP higher...when voters see how close Layton is to Harper (e.g. today and yesterday), will that give the numbers a boost (not registered by the polls until Sunday, if at all)? I think so.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982356--exclusive-ma...

Toronto Star just released a front page exclusive claiming Tory insiders have confided that a majority is now out of reach. This is actually great news for the NDP campaign, as the focus of the campaign can be shifted towards whether Harper's minority can survive.

While the surge does seem to have plateaued over the past three days, we should also note the significant movement on the leadership numbers, with Jack passing Harper in NANOS, Harris-Decima and a coouple of others.  As Nanon has noted (and as we saw earlier in the campaign), a boost in leadership numbers often prefigures a comparable boost in voter choice of parties.

The surge has plateaued.  It may not be over.

If you want to know the real reason why Quebeckers are voting for the NDP this time, why not let them speak for themselves?

Globe comes out for Harper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/the-globes-election-endorsement-facing-up-to-our-challenges/article2001610/

 I'm so old I can remember the'72 election, when the Star and Globe switched roles, with the Globe endorsing Trudeau's Liberals and the liberal Star going for Stanfield and the Conservatives

 but usually the Globe is Red Tory on its editorial board; if there had been a convincing Liberal Party they made have switched

Quote:

age plays tricks on your memory

No problem - I'm finding the same even in my 30s!

We'll have to agree to disagree on Mulroney's legacy - frankly I am hard-pressed to think of even one positive thing he did, apart from his steadfast support of sanctions against apartheid South Africa. No knock against Stephen Lewis and his work at the UN, but even his appointment was used by Mulroney as a fig leaf to cover a series of outrageous patronage appointments.

sorry, I changed the above to 1972 election :

age plays tricks on your memory

that was all the more shocking since Trudeaumania '68 had worn off so quickly for the Star and others (War Measures Act, inflation, arrogance etc.)

there was a famous Macpherson cartoon in the Star of the Globe and Star as whipping boys, but each switching from their usual targets...

 and

 re the Red Tory Globe, yes, it is: that is what opened the breach on its Right 10 years ago for the National Post, which could not stand Globe's tolerance of the mixed economy, some socially progressive initiatives etc.

 and re Mulroney, remember, around here he is All Bad, but he nominated Stephen Lewis to the UN, and for me was exactly right with the Meech negotiations, denounced by his whole right side(and Trudeau), and despite many denunciations introduced pretty much the same value-added tax/GST that every social democrat in Europe has enacted and many US liberals today want enacted

so, of his Big Three -- Meech, GST, free trade -- I go full-in for 2 of them

Looks like it's true, some BQ affiliates have written letters to their newspapers encouraging BQ voters to cast their ballot for the NDP.

Robert Fife: Conservatives are also apparently making an ad buy in Ontario to target the NDP and Liberals. Ad buy in Ontario to focus on cost of NDP platform and ask "business" Liberals to vote for the Conservatives to stop the NDP. Ad buy in BC to focus on an NDP coalition with the BQ and Liberals.

Sounds like a last minute effort from the Tories to save their government. As we hit Friday, the aftermath of the royal wedding, and now the weekend, the media coverage is going to go down. The NDP seems to be focussing its efforts today and tomorrow in BC where the party has a serious ground game. 

On election day, Layton is in Toronto.

NDP should run ads on how the NDP budget makes sense is costed, is Canadians priorities-- even if they don't want to go neg on Con plan should not let it be out there that the NDP plan is a weakness

Could also have run one on the NDP team -- one of strength..

You don't have to respond to attacks by going negative

If they are like protest marches you take the MSM number and the organizer's number and usually the reality is close to double the MSM number and just under the organizers inflation.

Others have already done mea culpas for having scoffed at North Report's boosterism. I did not say out loud what I thought of that silly prediction of 80 seats and the endeless threads about being the Official Opposition.

I cant imagine a mea culpa I am happier to make. And it is more than just having scoffed at NR. I was having a hard time finding when I could come to Michigan. There was a window that included E-day and the week after. Not being here for a boring and predictable election was not a tough choice. We all need to do our part even when it isnt inspiring. Bt something had to give, and I barely even thought about the choice.

I will do pennance by working the phones in Central Nova- see if we can knock off Peter McKay. If they are not set up for me to long distance pull the vote, maybe I'll do Oshawa.

edmundoconnor wrote:

SRB wrote:

How are these numbers arrived at anyway?

Take the number of Tory jaws hitting the floor, multiply by 3 or so.

To say nothing of the number of fainting Liberals, those without NDP signs on their lawn or in their window.

Yeah, that's what scares me about that article; it might still be a ploy to push down some of the NDP surge by making some of the anti-Harper crowd feel like they don't have to vote or can safely go back to the Liberals.

Does anyone know what are Jon Pammet's of Carleton U's politics?

Does anyone know:

1. If there are any Layton rallies in Toronto before the end of the campaign?

2. Where is Layton's party on Monday night?