Seat Projections (2)

I don't know who these guys are (found this on Kinsella's page), but Democratic Space has:

26 APRIL

Cons 161

Libs    57

NDP    53

BQ     36

Ind      1

My PREDICTION

WAVE CONTINUING AS IT IS TO HARD TO STOP NOW,

ESTABLISHMENT WILL HIT BACK BUT WILL ONLY WORK WITH OLDER VOTERS

Hit back will not affect younger voters and the more they hear the more they will turn out

NDP   175

CONSERVATIVES 89

LIBERALS 23

BLOC 11

i may be crazy but this looks like diefenbaker election

NorthReport wrote:

Everyone needs to read and reread what Alice's analysis of seat projection sites.

My understanding of Democratic Space is that the owner has a history of hostility towards the NDP

 

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/rubber-hits-the-road-for-parties-and-...

He got burned last time by having the Cons too low.  Now he adds three points to their vote total over the average.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

This is the scary thing take the last four projections in post 47, 45, 43, 39

They all show the Cons quite high.

They also show them below a majority based on one thing only--

Liberals getting over 60 seats.

 

I had the Liberals under 60 and the Cons with a minority.

I think you can either know the rate of change or the absolute values, but not both. The NDP wave is still going strong, so we don't really know what the next seats are going to be that go NDP. I think if there is a little bit of an NDP surge, it benefits the Tories, but if it continues it only benefits itself. I think it is past the point of benefitting the Tories. From a Toronto-centric viewpoint I had said I thought Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York were done, and now it looks like Davenport and York South Weston are going to go NDP as well, to bring the total in the 416 up to 6. The other 416 Liberal ridings are the core of the Liberal support, and it seems that the national Liberal support would have to drop into the high teens for them to be lost to the NDP or the Tories. If Carolyn Bennett loses St. Paul's, the Liberals are finished.

Then there is an odd possibility some Tory vote would prop up some NDP seats, but so would some Liberal vote. We will see how that plays out.

I think all bets are off and trying to guess the number of seats would be too difficult for me. I might be able to say something qualitatively however. With each successive poll, when I plug the poll results into the seat projector, we see more seats for the NDP, less seats for the Liberals. and a variable number for the Conservatives.

I do have a strong feeling the Canadian people are going to make history on May 2.

Evan Soloman (of all people! ) is promising this afternoon to highlight the firing of the former assistant chief adviser to Harper, Patrick Muttart, who is still on the Conservative payroll for distributing a phony photo of Ignatieff in an American army uniform supporting American troops in Afghanistan from before the time he became Liberal leader. While this is probably going to be a slap at Sun media (his new competitor) considering the way he announced it on Carole McNeil's program, it will once again raise the issue of trust regarding Harper. Could happen at a better time to a nicer guy! If this gets a lot of media play in the few remaining days before the election it could cause a major change in voting patterns, especially considering how little trust Harper generates.

Garth Brasseur wrote:

I'm not sure about Ontario but it looks like strategic voting will come into play in the West as it is now obvious who the logical choice is in most ridings.  When asked by Angus Reid whether they would consider a strategic vote to defeat an opponent, many Liberal and NDP supporters said that they would.  According to Ekos, the over-whelming second choice of either party is the other.  For strategic voting to be effective, it would need to be fairly obvious which party can beat the Conservatives. 

I am worried about the Western Arctic because it is not obvious which of the two opponents to the Conservatives has the best chance to win.  I am hoping that Jack coming to town tomorrow might help us turn the corner here.  The advance poll was high in areas of NDP strength in the riding so I'm hoping that is a positive sign.  The national trend may also help as it looks like the NDP is the main competition to the Conservatives.  We have had the aboriginal leadership endorse the Liberal candidate (again).  I'm hoping it is as effective as last time but the Liberal candidate is a lot stronger. 

The polls from Atlantic Canada the last few days seem to indicate a sharp swing to the NDP from both other parties.  I am hoping last night's jump in Quebec by Nanos (a 49% night for the NDP by my crude way of calculating it) is due to Parizeau joining the campaign for the BLOC and that he keeps in the news for the next four or five days. It looks like a bandwagon effect going on there.

 

Yes it does, and not just in Quebec. I think people waited for the Quebec polls to agree before starting to switch to the NDP in the rest of the country, and for us to pass the Liberals decisevely to turn it into a tsunami that may be too late to stop. I'm not too worried about Western Arctic given Bevington's incumbancy. If I were the Conservatives I'd be worried about Nunavut.

If the Liberals fall below 20% they will probably be looking at twenty odd seats, because while much of their vote is concentrated in the GTA, much of it is sprinkled over the rest of the country in places it won't help them. It won't be a Kim Campbell style wipeout, but they will do worse than 1984. And with this wave, we will be the benificiary in more places than the Conservatives.

I'm thinking that we may win at least a plurality in seats, and that the Conservatives and Liberals between them may not have enough for a majority.

The Torys will be lucky to hold onto 100 seats. If the Liberal, Bloc, Green, and Tory vote moves to the NDP like it appears it is, the Torys will be outmatched in most regions of the country. Especially with the NDP rising in Ontario.

Also, forget startegic voting. The Torys already have a majority in the House with the Libs supporting them on their right-wing policies.

Here's a heartbreaker scenario to consider: that the NDP could climb all the way to 130 seats or so and the Conservatives might still get a majority, due to the scale of Lib-Bloc collapse.  Probably unlikely, but...

Though given that at least one of these polls (Ekos?) showed CPC a scant #1 in the 416, and with consideration to past elections where CPC led or contended in Toronto mid-election only to be skunked in the end...I'm still wondering if the Grit figures are being lowballed, given how there are still plenty of Torontonians who can't trust Harper.  That is, the Tories may be doing even worse, or more sluggishly, than polls are indicating...

NorthReport wrote:

The Liberal election projection project is useless.

 

 

http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/index.php

 

Well, there's still plenty "not called".  Still, I get your drift--in the comments, something seems to have been knocked off-orbit by the NDP surge, to the point where even "thoughtful" regulars (like Bear & Ape) seem to be confusedly clinging to straws...

Wilf Day wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Cons - 139 seat

NDP - 98 seats

Libs - 56 seats

Bloc - 14 seats

Ind - 1 seat

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/seat_projection_april_28_2011.pdf 

A great prediction for use in all Get Out The Vote campaigns; every seat counts, the NDP and Liberals could have 154 seats, exactly half of the 308. Do you want the Bloc to keep paralyzing our politics with only 14 seats? VOTE. 

Yes, a useful motivator, but realistically, do you think the Bloc will collapse that completely? I still see them taking 20-25 seats. I suspect the CPC estimate is fairly accurate though.

I'm surprised nobody mentions that Ignatieff was first elected to parliament in a conservative riding after the CPC pretty much gave it to him.  And he has since supported the Conservatives in parliament in every major right wing decision they needed to make.  Why would anybody think that Igantief would partner with Jack Layton to form government when he has nothing in common with the NDP.  Has Ignatieff not already rejected that a couple of years ago and chose to support Harper's minority instead?

No matter how many seats the NDP takes on May 2nd. Harper will again form government with the support of Ignatieff and his new liberals.

CPC - 147 - 35.67%
NDP - 95 - 28.25%
Lib - 48 - 22.44%
BQ - 17 - 7.09%

http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/

yep, the Liberals in ON need to step back and vote NDP. it is the only thing that is correct that they can do.

Can anyone access democraticspace?

The national low for the NDP should be 57 seats (rather than 44 seats) based on totalling the regional lows.

Or, Dave, it may alter your perceptions of on-the-ground changes. I think that the 'low' seat counts aren't going to be reliable. This election is too difficult to make any defintive statements on, but my laziest friends are not having to be pestered to vote. That says something, given our age as 20-somethings.

• I put the floor for the Bloc at 20 seats, more likely 25.
• I put the floor for the Liberals at 50 seats
• I put the floor for the Cons at 140 seats

Which means the ceiling for the NDP is 98, but I don't honestly think we'll get there. I'd put our floor at 70 seats, and would hope to see 75 to 85 in reality. Which leaves at least 13 seats in play, and more likely around 25 - more than enough to provide Harper his majority. Unless we all, every single Canadian who opposes the Banana Republican agenda, work our asses off in the next three days.

Let's do it.

I think you ignore the BQ's strength on the ground, and the relative inexperience of the NDP campaigners in Quebec.

So is there a new alignment in Canadian politics.  No longer is it east versus west or the old Reform line, "the West wants in." It is the 401 car culture of Ontario and the oil patch in Alberta against the rest of the country who are steamed about climate change.  

CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Apr 29)

See http://democraticspace.com/canada2011/ds-projections.pdf to download PDF of riding-by-riding projections.

CANADA
CPC – avg 149 seats (37.7%) – low 131 (36.2%), high 168 (39.2%)
NDP – avg 79 (28.8%) – low 55 (27.3%), high 112 (30.3%)
LPC – avg 55 (21.3%) – low 41 (19.7%), high 70 (22.7%)
BQ – avg 24 (6.3%) – low 8 (4.8%), high 40 (7.8%)
GPC – avg 0 (4.8%) – low 0 (3.3%), high 1 (6.3%)
OTH – avg 1 (1.0%)

ONTARIO
CPC – avg 56 seats (39.3%) – low 51 (37.8%), high 64 (40.8%)
NDP – avg 20 (26.4%) – low 18 (24.9%), high 23 (27.9%)
LPC – avg 30 (28.3%) – low 21 (26.8%), high 35 (29.8%)
GPC – avg 0 (5.1%) – low 0 (3.6%), high 0 (6.6%)

QUEBEC
BQ – avg 24 seats (27.1%) – low 8 (25.6%), high 40 (28.6%)
CPC – avg 8 (16.5%) – low 3 (15.0%), high 11 (18.0%)
NDP – avg 34 (37.7%) – low 19 (36.2%), high 59 (39.2%)
LPC – avg 8 (16.2%) – low 6 (14.7%), high 13 (17.7%)
GPC – avg 0 (1.7%) – low 0 (0.2%), high 0 (3.2%)
OTH – avg 1 (0.8%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – avg 22 seats (42.7%) – low 18 (41.2%), high 25 (44.2%)
NDP – avg 11 (31.5%) – low 9 (30.0%), high 14 (33.0%)
LPC – avg 3 (16.9%) – low 2 (15.4%), high 4 (18.4%)
GPC – avg 0 (8.1%) – low 0 (6.6%), high 1 (9.6%)

ALBERTA
CPC – avg 27 seats (64.7%) – low 27 (63.2%), high 28 (66.2%)
NDP – avg 1 (15.7%) – low 0 (14.2%), high 1 (17.2%)
LPC – avg 0 (10.1%) – low 0 (8.6%), high 0 (11.6%)
GPC – avg 0 (7.1%) – low 0 (5.6%), high 0 (8.6%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – avg 21 seats (51.9%) – low 20 (50.4%), high 23 (53.4%)
NDP – avg 5 (30.1%) – low 4 (28.6%), high 6 (31.6%)
LPC – avg 2 (14.4%) – low 1 (12.9%), high 2 (15.9%)
GPC – avg 0 (2.8%) – low 0 (1.3%), high 0 (4.3%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
CPC – avg 14 seats (34.0%) – low 11 (32.5%), high 15 (35.5%)
NDP – avg 7 (32.5%) – low 5 (31.0%), high 8 (34.0%)
LPC – avg 11 (30.1%) – low 10 (28.6%), high 15 (31.6%)
GPC – avg 0 (3.3%) – low 0 (1.8%), high 0 (4.8%)

NORTH
CPC – avg 1 seat (39.4%) – low 1 (37.9%), high 2 (40.9%)
NDP – avg 1 (28.2%) – low 0 (26.7%), high 1 (29.7%)
LPC – avg 1 (25.5%) – low 1 (24.0%), high 1 (27.0%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.2%) – low 0 (4.7%), high 0 (7.7%)

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

I think you ignore the BQ's strength on the ground, and the relative inexperience of the NDP campaigners in Quebec.

Afraid you're right, LTJ.  And that also pertains to the Conservatives strength "on the ground" in many, many other well-organized ridings elsewhere.  It all rests on translating an over-the-telephone statement of intent into ballots in boxes. 

As for the alignment of Calgary's interests with "401 car culture of Ontario..." (NS: "So is there a new alignment in Canadian politics.  No longer is it east versus west or the old Reform line, "the West wants in." It is the 401 car culture of Ontario and the oil patch in Alberta against the rest of the country who are steamed about climate change." 

Others have wondered why the usual "car culture" complaints about rising gas prices have not appeared in this election. We know why Calgary would not be first in line complaining. Have the Conservatives been able to muzzle the 401 drivers? Or are the 82 per cent of Canadians who want a universal policy to fight climate change really, really serious this time out? It's a guilt-driven silence?

Northern Shoveler wrote:

The first election I worked on an environmentalist ran for the NDP in Sudbury and got buried by his opposition.  Nobody wanted to hear about acid rain even though they has used the local landscape for moon simulation.  Jobs or pollution is never a good political choice to give to voters.  

That's because it's a false choice, and why jobs and a clean environment, or "green jobs" are so important.