Election talk (16)

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

@davidakin David Akin

Sun News Network: Former vice squad says Jack Layton was found naked in massage parlour in 1996. On Sun News Network now.

Interestingly enough, Sun media's David Akin has completely removed that and other similar tweets from his Twitter account. NOBODY EVER DOES THAT!!!!! 'Nuff said.

TorStar "Exclusive": Majority out of reach, Conservatives say

Quote:

Stephen Harper's Conservatives must win 23 more seats in Ontario to achieve their coveted majority, a task that senior party insiders now admit is almost impossible, the Star has learned.

High-ranking sources confide that even with the collapse of Michael Ignatieff's Liberals — and NDP Leader Jack Layton's surge, which helps split the vote in many Ontario ridings — it will be very difficult to make such immense gains in Canada's most populous province.

At the dissolution of Parliament, the minority Tories held 51 of Ontario's 106 federal seats.

Party sources say the possible loss of several British Columbia ridings to the New Democrats — and others in Quebec, where Layton is surfing an orange wave — has forced them to revise their projections.

As of Thursday, they said they needed to win at least 74 seats in Ontario to achieve a majority.

“It all comes down to Ontario and we're just not there,” a source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the party's internal polling is closely guarded.

Read what is being said at Warren Kinsella's website. Many of his supporters are asking him to resign from Sun News.

I don't often post links to Fox...but this is worth a read...

Quote:

Imagine if all the U.S. jobs lost during the recession were already back.

That would be great, right?

What if America's deficit stood at just about $50 billion?

That would be wonderful, too, right?

Well, there is a North American country where that's true. It's Canada.

Still Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper faces a tough test in Monday's election.

It does indeed gloss over the obvious details, but who cares? Do we turn to Fox for deep and intelligent analysis? It is a Fox News related article that isn't raising an absolute alarmist flag and screaming in a Mr.X terror voice the words 'CONTAINMENT' or 'DOMINO THEORY'. I do not say this as a good thing or a bad thing, but simply as a thing.

This is not going to get much notice. But for how Jack deals with it, I think this is really, really big.

Gas prices could rise, but Canadians want polluters to pay: Layton

Quote:

When pressed, however, he said he cannot guarantee that the costs [of the NDPs cap and trade policy] will not be passed on to consumers [as higher gas prices].

"What we're saying is, however, if we are moving quickly on getting higher efficiency standards for the automobiles, or moving quickly on public-transit support, we can help keep the costs of transportation down, and transform our transportation system to something that's more environmentally sound, and more affordable for Canadians."

He insisted that Canadians want oil companies to pay the costs of pollution, but the oil companies are trying to scare people.

"First of all, it's time that these companies absorbed some of the cost of their pollution. I think most people agree with that."

Jack did not come right out and acknowledge that climate change action will raise prices for all of us. But he still dealt with this pretty head-on. Mind you, he did not have much choice... but I'm not talking about some moralist score keeping on forthrightness.

The climate change policy package developed and rolled out in 2007 was excellent. And I was, and still am, dissapointed that the party did not make more of an effort to promote it. In the perod right after Jack did talk it up at media opportunities, and on the surface at least he said the same thing as here. But he shied away much more from "prices will increase".

I think the fact he didn't shows that he is working from a much more secure position.

The same article referrs to Jack answering when questioned that he felt interest rates should be held down. I'm not sure that was wise. At least, not well thought out how to deliver that. But I llike the fact that he had the confidence and apparent sense of security to say it.

Fair enough, KenS.

There is a positive article about the NDP in the National Post! 

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/30/rex-murphy-canadas-smiley...

By Rex Murphy!

Quick someone get the devil a coat, hell has apparently frozen over!

Northern-54 wrote:

There is a positive article about the NDP in the National Post! 

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/30/rex-murphy-canadas-smiley...

 

By Rex Murphy!

Saw this tweet on a seat projection site:  "Harper wants Liberals to help him stay in power."   That's the first time I've seen this level of desperation by Harper.

I think I take back everything I said about the "Imagine" ad. It is perfect for this point in the campaign. If anything, I just wish they had an extra middle aged guy, like the architect (?) working late at the office, endorsing Jack. The unremmittingly positive message and the "I won't stop until the job is done" tagline that is going to be played and replayed as Jack sprints to the finish line from Montréal to Scarborough, is well-suited to this moment. I expect the NDP will make big gains on Monday and Jack will be looking at leader of the official opposition. If the numbers bear out, AND the Liberals (in caucus) will it, then we wil also be looking at a coalition government with Jack as prime minister. Jack's popularity is undeniable, Canadian's preference for him as prime minister is palpable, and the Liberals have been there (coalition with the NDP), and done that before. 

One of the reasons that Jack might also become prime minister, is that it would be almost untenable not to have him in government if the Liberals and Tories have virtually no Québec MPs. It is near inconcievable that we would have a federal government, with few to no Québec MPs in cabinet. It would also be damaging to do so, after an election in which Québec voters may have opted away from a separatist party so strongly.

That's a very good point. I was thinking in the post-Iggy restructuring. Hell, he might not even be an MP after Monday.

Anonymouse wrote:

I think I take back everything I said about the "Imagine" ad. It is perfect for this point in the campaign. If anything, I just wish they had an extra middle aged guy, like the architect (?) working late at the office, endorsing Jack. The unremmittingly positive message and the "I won't stop until the job is done" tagline that is going to be played and replayed as Jack sprints to the finish line from Montréal to Scarborough, is well-suited to this moment. I expect the NDP will make big gains on Monday and Jack will be looking at leader of the official opposition. If the numbers bear out, AND the Liberals (in caucus) will it, then we wil also be looking at a coalition government with Jack as prime minister. Jack's popularity is undeniable, Canadian's preference for him as prime minister is palpable, and the Liberals have been there (coalition with the NDP), and done that before. 

One of the reasons that Jack might also become prime minister, is that it would be almost untenable not to have him in government if the Liberals and Tories have virtually no Québec MPs. It is near inconcievable that we would have a federal government, with few to no Québec MPs in cabinet. It would also be damaging to do so, after an election in which Québec voters may have opted away from a separatist party so strongly.

This is very astute. On the other hand, the Liberal leadership probably doesn't want the NDP to form government for political reasons because it would confirm their marginalization on a national stage. I suppose it depends on whether they want to put national unity first or not?

You heard it here first: I'm predicting the share of the popular vote the Dippers end up with will be lower than that which the recent polls are showing, the Conservatives and Liberals higher. Harper may well yet get his majority.

If you look at the breakdown, the NDP gets the most support among those least likely to bother showing up to vote: young, underemployed urbanites. Further, the "wave" effect took place too early: I predict there's no shortage of relatively non-ideological baby boomer aged voters who, being bombarded with the notion of an "orange wave" in the media this week would get briefly caught up in the emotional aspect of it initially, only to have sober second thoughts as to cast a ballot approaches. Like it or not, voters fear the unknown. Even if it's bullshit, the idea of "18 cent gas hikes" or "doing what they did to Ontario to Canada" could tip a small amont of voters. And since we're talking about a 3 or 4 percent shift either way being the difference between a weak Tory minority and massive majority, that could count for something.

gyor wrote:

Clearly they did not know about the unspoken rules in Canadian politics between Journalist and politicians that you never touch someones sex life, it is off limits.

Tell that to Adam Giambrone and the Toronto Star. 

Papal Bull wrote:

Well, I think after they most unceremoniously dump Iggy in a few months we will see what government comes of this election.

We will see what kind of govt emerges, or is emerging, in days, not months. By months some government will have passed through a Throne Speech.... and that will be it for over a year at least.

Papal Bull wrote:

How many young people do you actually know? Cuz' I dunno. I live in this place, where like, we have these 'young people'. And like, we're all totally into Nickelback and voting.

Kewl.

Sunday will be a good day. Monday will be better.

Papal Bull wrote:

Sunday will be a good day. Monday will be better.

And Tuesday will be spectacular (except for the hangover...and the business of getting down to work)

Not to drag this out, but as a point of interest, Sun's David Akin just tweeted the following:

RT @jonkay: For those who care, someone tried to shop me the Layton-massage story 2 yrs ago (without docs). It was a Liberal fixer

RT @jonkay: I didnt bite because the source wasnt talking, and I couldnt get the cop's notebook through access-to-info, so I dropped it

RT @jonkay: And I mention this only because the leak itself has become the story -- with many folks unfairly assuming it must have been CPC

Curiouser and curiouser...

I do not know leaked this. However, if you read the tweets carefully, he is not denying that it could be the Cons, because he says "many folks unfairly assuming it must have been CPC", which could simply mean it could still be the Cons. In other words, if evidence comes out that it is the Cons, he can simply say I never said it wasn't. People who make evasive statements such as this are often being misleading deliberately.

A Liberal fixer? Sounds like Warren Kinsella

My experience is that smears like this can be worth a lot more than people guess.  If it is not believed or thought spurious, then it helps the target.  In this case, there is no way of knowing who the target is but I suspect 90% of voters, when asked for a guess, would say it was the Conservatives.  1% or 2% in the polls could mean the difference between a majority and minority government for the Conservatives.  3% to 4% swing to the NDP would put the NDP in government.

Glad you were out canvassing.  That is the key to winning a close election and/or increasing vote in a riding.

vermonster wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

A Liberal fixer? Sounds like Warren Kinsella

For whatever it is worth. Kinsella today wrote on his blog"

"A Sun reporter called me about this story yesterday afternoon. Before he could even describe what it was about – he said it involved “a major political figure and the police” – I told him I already knew what it was about. In Toronto, and amongst many political people, this story has been pretty well-known for years. Someone came to me about it two years ago. I looked at what they had, thought about it for about sixty seconds, and then urged this person to forget all about it. I certainly planned to. If the story ever saw the light of day, I told this person, it would hurt the source more than it would hurt the target. I still think that. If people within a political party were ultimately behind this – and there are four political parties which would have a direct interest in getting this story out – they’d better hope to God they don’t get found out before Monday night."

http://warrenkinsella.com/

Not that I trust Warren's word on much, but interesting that the timing in his recounting (2 years) is the same as Akin's.

And bizarre that he tries so hard to widen the political universe of who might be behind it ("four political parties which would have a direct interest...") -- is he trying to claim that the Greens or the Bloc shopped the story to him? But if it was a Liberal spreading the story around, it would make sense that Kinsella would seek to muddy up the waters by seeking to widen the suspect pool, no?

--

But this whole thing is a huge red herring that the voters don't care about, and is designed to distract us in the final days.

Had a great day out today campaigning for Rosemont, and I'm more convinced that ever that Monday night is going to be a great night for all of us. Let's not allow this crap to let us lose focus in the final 48 hours.

 

 

 

It was a bad move on whose ever part it was as it distracted people from the attacks on the NDP's economic policy. People stopped paying attention to that story in favour of this legless one and created tons of parania and finger pointing amoung the other parties. Which ever party did this it backfired.