That's also been my experience. One lives in hope. (and I see Jim Stanford has something to say in a column about why gas prices haven't been an issue. I'm going to take a gander at it).
Seat Projections (2)
Sat, 2011-04-30 21:40
#102
Sat, 2011-04-30 22:34
#103
I have calculated my first prediction of the campaign-- I may revise tomorrow
Conservative 145
NDP 94
Liberal 48
BQ 21
I hope the NDP is higher becuase this is a difficult result with the NDP and Liberals below the cons and below a majority.It would leave Harper in power I think.
There are so many seats in play though that the possibilities range from an NDP plurality to a Con Majority. Most possible however is the need for all 3 opposition parties to vote together to be more than the Cons.
Sat, 2011-04-30 22:36
#104
I think you ignore the BQ's strength on the ground, and the relative inexperience of the NDP campaigners in Quebec.
Bang on. The NDP's get out the vote system is second to none. The problem is you need people and expertise to run it, and need to run it for a whole campaign in order to use it to full advantage.
I think it will be more difficult to turn phone opinions into voters than many realize, particularly if people are stretched so think in Québec that they're taking away from other campaigns/ridings.
Sat, 2011-04-30 23:05
#105
peterjcassidy
moved to election prediction contest
Sat, 2011-04-30 23:07
#106
.
Sun, 2011-05-01 00:05
#107
Potential NDP gains by the latest Angus Reid (naming a few interesting winners I hadn't heard much of):
Winnipeg North
St. John's South--Mount Pearl
Parkdale--High Park
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar
Davenport
Beaches--East York
Gatineau
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour
York South--Weston
Halifax West
Hull--Aylmer
Jeanne-Le Ber
Saint-Lambert: Sadia Groguhé
Drummond
Ahuntsic
Alfred-Pellan: environmental Master's student Rosane Doré Lefebvre
Laval
Brossard--La Prairie: lawyer Hoang Mai
Brome--Missisquoi
South Shore--St. Margaret's
Random--Burin--St. George's
Surrey North
Oshawa
Sydney--Victoria: CUPE Rep Kathy Macleod
Westmount--Ville-Marie
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie
Laurier--Sainte-Marie: former foreign service officer (and sociology Ph.D) Hélène Laverdière (defeating Gilles Duceppe)
Newton--North Delta
Repentigny
Verchères--Les Patriotes
York West
Hochelaga: union activist and anthropologist at Musée d'archéologie de Montréal Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet
Nunavut
Montcalm: former municipal councillor Manon Perreault
Terrebonne--Blainville: McGill NDP co-president Charmaine Borg
Rivière-du-Nord
Sherbrooke
Cape Breton--Canso: Mayor of the Town of Mulgrace Marney Simmons
Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant
Chambly--Borduas
Kings--Hants
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert: Algerian-born doctor Djaouida Sellah
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Papineau: CSN rep, and Dominican Republic native, Marcos Tejada
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot: Marie-Claude Morin
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel: Mylène Freeman
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine: Isabelle Morin
LaSalle--Émard: Hélène LeBlanc
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: Laurin Liu
Shefford
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca
Honoré-Mercier: Teacher (and Chilean exile) Paulina Ayala
Beauharnois--Salaberry: Anne Minh Thu Quach
Joliette: Francine Raynault (although that might be a surprise)
Compton--Stanstead
Saint-Jean: Tarik Brahmi
Laval--Les Îles
Bourassa: Julie Demers
Abitibi--Témiscamingue: local nurse Christine Moore
Lac-Saint-Louis
Beauséjour, New Brunswick: former Band Chief Susan Levi-Peters (defeating Dominic LeBlanc)
Scarborough Southwest
Beauport--Limoilou: Raymond Côté is in the lead
Louis-Hébert: Denis Blanchette is in the lead
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles: Anne-Marie Day is in the lead
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier: Elaine Michaud is in the lead over Andre Arthur
Québec: Annick Papillon is tied for first
Louis-Saint-Laurent : Alexandrine Latendresse is tied for first
Scarborough Centre: Natalie Hundt
Ottawa--Vanier: Trevor Haché
Etobicoke North: ETFO leader, French teacher and anti-racism activist Diana Andrews
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques: potential cabinet member Guy Caron
Pontiac
Vancouver Centre: Karen Shillington
Scarborough--Guildwood: NDP staffer Danielle Ouellette
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Trois-Rivieres: Robert Aubin
Saint-Maurice--Champlain: Lise St-Denis
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Pierrefonds--Dollard: Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou: Romeo Saganash
That would leave nine Bloc MPs.
That's 118 NDP MPs.
Now, if the Liberals can hold on to 38 or more seats -- a modest target, I hope -- that holds the Conservatives down to 143 or less.
An NDP government with Liberal participation, support or tolerance would not need support from the Bloc.
This matters because the NDP platform says "If the mandate we receive justifies it, we will work with other federalist parties, through informal or appropriate stable arrangements."
Sun, 2011-05-01 00:50
#108
Boom Boom
I have calculated my first prediction of the campaign-- I may revise tomorrow
Conservative 145
NDP 94
Liberal 48
BQ 21
I hope the NDP is higher becuase this is a difficult result with the NDP and Liberals below the cons and below a majority.It would leave Harper in power I think.
Definitely would leave Harper in power, and if the Opposition voted down the Budget then Harper will force another election - and almost no chance the G-G would ask the Opposition if they could govern. Who besides the Cons would be able to afford another election? And if another election is forced - can you just imagine the outrage from the population? Rather than allow this to happen I see the Liberals propping the Cons up for another five years - during which time the Libs do absolutely nothing but try to rebuild their party.
Sun, 2011-05-01 09:29
#109
Sun, 2011-05-01 09:41
#110
I have no idea where you are getting that from Boom Boom as chances are very high that the GG would ask the 2nd party to try and form a government in the case of an early defeat of the government in a confidence vote, throne speech, etc.
Definitely would leave Harper in power, and if the Opposition voted down the Budget then Harper will force another election - and almost no chance the G-G would ask the Opposition if they could govern. Who besides the Cons would be able to afford another election? And if another election is forced - can you just imagine the outrage from the population? Rather than allow this to happen I see the Liberals propping the Cons up for another five years - during which time the Libs do absolutely nothing but try to rebuild their party.
Sun, 2011-05-01 10:36
#111
Sun, 2011-05-01 12:29
#112
Cons 142
NDP 114
Libs 39
Bloc 12
Ind 1
http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/2011/05/01/1055
Some real howlers in that one
Pontiac: NDP 46.9, Con 21.6
Jonquire-Alma: Con 40.5, BQ 30.8, NDP 24.3
Laurier-Ste Marie: NDP 55, BQ 28
Outremont: NDP 79.1, Lib 12.0
Westmount: NDP 65.4, Lib 23.3
Vancouver Centre: NDP 30.9, Lib 28.9, Con 24.4, Grn 14.0
Also picks the NDP to win "St. John's North" & the Conservatives to win "North Nova"
Sun, 2011-05-01 12:37
#113
Cons 147
NDP 107
Liberals 38
Bloc 14
Green 1
Indp 1
So the site predicts the Conservatives 8 short of a majority, yet
my model predicts only a 3.9% chance that the Conservatives will win a majority government
Sun, 2011-05-01 12:49
#114
In Saskatchewan, I'd say that 3 are probable: Palliser; Desnethe Missinippi Churchill River; and Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar
I think 3 are "have a shot, but not quite probable": Regina Qu'appelle; Saskatoon Humbolt and, yes, Regina Lumsden. My own riding, Blackstrap is too rural to be in play, I think, but will be closer than the last two. I am going to say 4 NDs elected in Saskatchewan.
Sun, 2011-05-01 12:58
#115
Closed for length.
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