For Avalon, ottawaobserver might have some connections.
Which ridings would you like to see rabble.ca profile?
Thu, 2011-04-28 17:12
#52
Thu, 2011-04-28 17:45
#53
alex
Thanks for your help! We'll get in touch...
Thu, 2011-04-28 19:07
#54
My pleasure.
Fri, 2011-04-29 14:00
#55
My profile of a Calgary Riding...Calgary City Center
Calgary has two 'star' Liberal candidates. The first is Heesung Kim in Calgary Center who has built quite the following of Liberal voters. So much so that she was one of the few Liberals in Calgary to retain a second place finish next to the green and NDP...and the green had a pretty impressive 2008 campaign in the city center that heavily hit her voter base. There is some degree of Liberal popularity here, which does translate to provincial alberta liberal seats coming from the city center. However, Heesung Kim will not be running in city center this election (I think she's bowed out of politics, but i may be wrong there).
Calgary's second star Liberal is Jennifer Pollack. In the past she's ran a very effective campaign against Rob Anders in the Calgary S.W (she alone will account for over 30% of all liberal votes from calgary), but she's running a campaign in the most conservative section of Calgary (calgary S.W. is white picket fences and hummers/SUV's as far as the eyes can see...little boxes on the hillside, lil boxes made of ticky tacky). She has an exceedingly strong campaign team, a recognizable face (she's one of the few that almost always has her face on campagin signage), and a pretty strong following within Calgary (she is argueably the face of the calgary federal liberals).
The big game changer...Jennifer Pollack is now running in my downtown riding taking her name and face to the riding most likely to bring a non-conservative into parliment from calgary...and fighting with Lee Richardson, which is kinda a conservative no name to my knowledge. As far as I can see...the green vote here has completely collapsed (in the downtown riding, I think it may be semi-intentional) and may end up aligning behind Jennifer. Ugh, I think I might be talking myself into a strategic vote here...she's got an impressive campaign presence (possibly the only presence in much of the Beltline) while our NDP campaign is not gaining the most traction vs Pollack.
It's going to be interesting come election day...I've already been approached by 2 conservative door-knockers that were only really urging their conservative following to get out and vote (conservative campaigning here is basically getting their voters to vote, outside of that they are inept). Last time I saw this...it was because they were in risk of losing the calgary center to the provincial liberals. Perhaps this is a sign of some conservative uneasiness in the heart of calgary...Jennifers onmi-present campaign in downtown might have them wondering.
Sun, 2011-05-01 16:31
#56
Interesting profile of Burnaby-Douglas.
Sun, 2011-05-01 23:28
#57
And thanks for the insights on Calgary Centre. I look forward to the day it seems more progressive representation federally.
Sun, 2011-05-01 23:48
#58
Catchfire
Thanks, Searosia--Did you see Aheli Picazo's profile of Calgary East?
And I agree, Anonymouse, Michael's profile is excellent.
Mon, 2011-05-02 13:05
#59
Catchfire - thanks for pointing it out....I've read now :) The Liberal camapign (in particular Jen Pollack) caught me off guard here in city centre...and I think she may have done the same to the Conservatives. There is an effort to get the green vote to goto Pollack it seems (by the looks of it, most of the city center green team in '08 never returned for '11)
To the East riding profile...I like, but over concentrated on Obhrai (though everything it says on Obhrai is accurate). I'm surprised he was able to do an article that begins with the title 'apathy' without mentioning that voter turnout was 50.45% in 2006 (I'm using wiki for source) and has dropped off since then.
Nor much of a mention towards our struggles in the opposition. Best reason to avoid candidate debates is candidate debates amount to free exposure, free campaigining.
To show why free campaigning = good for opposition horrid for Obhrai...2008 financials : This goes party, number of votes, and campaign dollars spent.
Conservative
21,311
$77,330
New Democrat
3,768
$831
Green
3,403
$2,722
Liberal
3,255
$6,934
Communist
323
$417
Total valid votes/Expense limit 32,060 $83,826
Wow...that pasted well...I've never been amazed by the success of a rabble paste action before.
In any case...I'd like to draw your attention to the NDP and greens spending under $1 per vote gained (communists spend more per calgary vote they get than the NDP?) and Deepak Obhrai spending somewhere in the range of 92% of every dollar spent in calgary east. Obhrai is smart not to attend anything where the s opposition can get free exposure because most of the time we can't afford to get ny other type of exposure.
32k voters turned out.... Riding size (2006 number is listed) =
Calgary East AB110,479
(I use [url=http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/riding-profiles.html]here[/url] for riding sizes)
Could probably get into Calgary east issues if you'd like. It's heavily our immigrant community (foreign nationalities...immigrants from other parts of canada trend N.W. it seems) which sets it aside from other calgary ridings. Barb Higgens really cleaned up the vote municipally here (If you only have rabbit ears for tv, odds are you were like me and watched her on the news daily). NDP policies do fly well here (mind you we can't afford to print literature so most voters don't know what those policies are) and is in the top 3 'potentials' for the calgary NDP (City centre and centre north being the other 2).
Mon, 2011-05-02 14:02
#60
bagkitty
@Searosia
It is not my intention to be excessively harsh, but may I suggest that, before you volunteer to "get into" Calgary East issues, perhaps you should do a little fact checking about what you know about the riding.
Calgary East is not, as you put it "[...] heavily our immigrant community". If you check the riding demographics that CBC has posted, you will see that at 24% "immigrant community", Calgary East (while exceeding the provinicial average of 16%) is almost exactly the Calgary average... as is the riding you are in (Calgary Centre at 23%). I believe you mistaking it for Calgary Northeast which comes in at 37%. (As to your remark about the NW - actually Calgary Nose Hill has the second highest proportion of "immigrants" at 31%.)
What distinguishes Calgary East is the proportion of seniors (12.96%) -- it is only one of three ridings in Calgary where the percentage of seniors is over 10% of the population (the others being Calgary Southeast at 11.58% and Calgary West at 10.8%). It also stands out as being one of the less affluent ridings with an average of household income of just over $97K (a quick and dirty calculation of the city average based on figures taken from the previously mentioned CBC demographic descriptions suggests the city average is $107K) although comes in significantly higher than the two poorest ridings (Calgary Centre-North at $71K and Calgary Northeast at $78K).
I would suggest that your attempts to describe the current federal election through the optics of the recent municipal election have to take into account more than your perceptions of the riding/ward overlap and your perceptions of the "make-up" of the riding/ward. You correctly point out that the one ward that went for Barb Higgins largely overlaps the boundaries of Calgary East - much like the only ward that went for Ric McIver is almost entirely contained by Calgary Southeast (a riding that is distinguished by being, on average, the most affluent, having the lowest percentage of "immigrants", and the second largest number of seniors). The distinguishing characteristic of the two wards that didn't go over to Nenshi (although he was a very respectable second in both) is that they contain a higher proportion of seniors than the rest of the city -- that they stand out from the rest in "generational" terms only.
Mon, 2011-05-02 16:52
#61
No worries Bagkitty...I like comments that force me to rethink what I've assumed. Though so you're aware...Calgary East is the riding in which I was born and lived in until the age of 17 and again in the 2000-2003 range. Probably changed since my time there, but I'm decently familiar with the peoples living in the riding. I'm actually quite surprised to see the median income as high as it states here (The riding includes Forest Lawn which is oft regarded as the poorest of calgary...wiki lists the median household income at a lil over 40k). The riding itself covers a pretty diverse area...I'm thinking you'll see one of the most varying levels of family income in this riding as it also includes riverbend, which has a household income nearly double that of forest lawn.
I believe you mistaking it for Calgary Northeast which comes in at 37%. (As to your remark about the NW - actually Calgary Nose Hill has the second highest proportion of "immigrants" at 31%.)
You're correct there, I've kinda mashed North East and East into my profiling. If you look at the riding itself, [url=http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/PopUpWindows.asp?ED=48002]here[/url], I'm heavily (and errouneously) really only referring to 16th N and 17th S and everything in between as Calgary East...which I think my immigrant population remark does apply to quite well. Incidentally, Josipa Petrunic, the liberal candidate, lists immigration reform as the most important issue for the riding. ""The problem with the immigration system as it stands is easily the biggest, most prominent issue in the riding." from [url=http://www.calgaryherald.com/RIDING+PROFILE+Calgary+East/4664250/story.h... herald[/url]
Mon, 2011-05-02 17:29
#62
Did some research since you have me second guessing... All this comes from wiki (and I'm pretty sure they are calgary east...I use 16th ave N as the divide line there)
Applewood Park - As of 2000, 38.6% of the residents were immigrants
Abbeydale - As of 2000, 27.1% of the residents
Marlborough Park (I beleive there is also a concentration of the senior vote here)- As of 2000, 27.6%
Penbrooke - As of 2000, 32.6% of the residents
Marlborough - As of 2000, 30.1% of the residents
The Northern section of the Calgary East riding is definately immigrant heavy (and I know this from growing up going to school in 2 of the communities listed above...parents moved me in grade 5 :P), and I think many of these are new canadians (not immigration from rest of canada...back to the N.W. is where the rest of canada seems to concentrate when they move here)
Is that the only fact checking point you had me on? I'd like to correct anywhere else that my knowledge is off.
Mon, 2011-05-02 17:54
#63
bagkitty
Yes Searosia, I was also born and raised in Calgary East, Forest Lawn actually - and perhaps have a longer experience with the riding having been born in 1959 and 3 of 4 of my immediate family members still reside there (I see them weekly).
Mon, 2011-05-02 18:32
#64
Hey sweet, nice to have another N.E ghetto babbler here (don't ask why, but thats how all my friends I grew up with now refer to marlborough)...though I guess i'm 20 years later.
and lil apology if I came off as dismisal of your points or suggest you didn't know the area...wasn't my intention, I'm just sharing my experience on it and reading yours. Does the NW hosting 'rest of canada' immigrants seem off to you? It's another one that's based heavily personal experience and I'm not sure if i can statistically back it up.
Mon, 2011-05-02 19:07
#65
The Herald seems somewhat vested in portraying a number of the districts in Calgary East and "crime-ridden", "poor" and "not quite our kind of people"
Agree that the herald does that...and have alot of problems with 'crime ridden' as I view it as a safer section compared to the downtown I now reside in. Not quite our people..well, you got that definition right too.
Poor...well, that link has Forest Lawn industrial with 70% as 'low income'...that really doesn't seem right. I don't think there is the really well to do neighboorhood like Mount Royal or the sort in Calgary East...maybe that contriubtes to the image?
Mon, 2011-05-02 19:12
#66
bagkitty
Yes Searosia, I was also born and raised in Calgary East, Forest Lawn actually - and perhaps have a longer experience with the riding having been born in 1959 (Forest Lawn was a separate town then - not yet incorporated into Calgary) and 3 of 4 of my immediate family members still reside there (I see them weekly).
ETA: immigrants refers to people who have immigrated to the country, a number of other words (not all of them complimentary) refer to those who have migrated internally - the CBC information is referring to individuals "born outside of Canada", not to those who currently reside in the immediate area but were born, say, in Ontario (although it is amusing to refer to Stephen Harper as an immigrant, he would not actually be represented in the "immigrants" category on the information provided for Calgary Southwest).
I also think you should pay attention to what is "oft thought" (and usually reported in the Herald) about districts within Calgary. The Herald seems somewhat vested in portraying a number of the districts in Calgary East and "crime-ridden", "poor" and "not quite our kind of people" - it takes me about 5 minutes to determine that the largest concentrations of "poor" districts in Calgary are actually in Calgary Centre [Lower Mount Royal, Vic Park, Sunalta, Lincoln Park, Cliff Bungalow] closely followed by Calgary North Centre [esp. Bridgeland/Riverside] but you can check the table at the end of the link to arrive at your own conclusions on that score -- please note though, the CBC link is referring to average family income, the link I have put in here refers to average (i.e. individual) income. I am not on my home computer, so my link to crime statistics is not immediately available but my best memory of them pretty clearly indicates that Calgary East actually has a lower incidence of most criminal activities than those reading the Herald believe. As to being "not quite our kind of people" -- well eliminate anyone who isn't quite WASPy enough, not affluent enough, not conservative enough and not employed by the oil and gas industry to determine who the Herald's "our kind of people" actually is.
[E(again)TA(further) - [in-joke]Forest Lawn is SE not NE. Sorry to be a snob, but I didn't grow up that close the airport (or even under a flight path)[/in-joke]... if you want to play with the map of crime statistics try this out.]
Mon, 2011-05-02 19:24
#67
bagkitty
Context is important, Forest Lawn Industrial is identified as having a population of 108 persons (check the table again)... as opposed to Forest Lawn itself which has a population of 7,800+. While the industrial area does cover an appreciable land area, there is, to the best of my recollection the entire population lives on a single block within the industrial area, a "transition" centre for recovering addicts that houses approximately 40 single men, and a small trailer park (which the owners are trying to sell off and force everyone out). While it may be identifiable as a geographical area, I do wonder why it is on the list as a residential area at all. It is the smallest of all the residential areas referred to, and along with the Shepard Industrial and Alyth-Bonnybrook-Manchester areas, should have been incorporated into the stats for the adjoining communities.
Mon, 2011-05-02 21:20
#68
I just came back from the polling station in my riding and it was very busy.
I thought that finding myself alone at the moment and wanting to talk to someone about the election I will post on my riding Newton North Delta because it is an interesting 3 way split riding that some pundits have picked for strategic voting and/or they predict a toss up result.
I worked on the campaigns in 2004 and 2006 but missed 2008 and this one. In both the 04 and 06 elections the NDP ran a strong candidate in Nancy Clegg. Nancy was an economics teacher at Kwantlen University College and really campained hard, knocking on doors, going to meetings and doing everything she could. She ended up losing to Sukh Dalliwal by around a thousand votes and the Conservative candidate was about a 1,000 votes below Nancy.
In 08 the NDP ran a less notable candidate along with a much less organised campaign and came in third behind Sukh and another South Asian candidate for the Conservatives.
This riding has become more and more South Asian in its ethnicity. There is a temple nearby and the South Asian population likes to live near their temples. I realise that most people don't vote based on ethnicity but there are a few and a few might make all the difference in this riding.
In this election we have the NDP running Jinny Sims the former head of the BCTF ( BC teacher's federation) who is South Asian, Sukh Dalliwal, and Mani Fallon for the Conservatives. So this time there are 3 South Asian candidates with the NDP having the best out of the three. The Conservative candidate is a young woman who is not a strong speaker and didn't seem to have a lot of knowledge about policy at the all candidates debate. ( at least she was there)
It remains to be seen if Jinny can knock out Sukh but it should be an interesting race.