Hey janfromthebruce, did you leave Ryan Dolby [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-candidate-quits-endorses-l... message[/url] yet? If so, any reply?
NDP candidate quits: Endorses Liberal candidate in bid to unseat the Tories 2
Sun, 2011-04-03 12:31
#52
Sun, 2011-04-03 13:35
#53
Speaking of a party member/candidate bolting to another party - here's Canada's creme de la creme case of same.
BC's riding of South Surrey-White Rock is represented by the infamous, useless, right-wing, so-con - Russ Hiebert, who claimed the highest MP expenses in Canada one year ago. His riding association and local Con party members are now split - and how split they are in terms of local candidates:
Con: Russ Hiebert
Lib: Hardy Staub (former 3-term White Rock mayor who was part of the local Con executive)
Green: Larry Colero (local Con member who has never been an environmentalist)
Christian Heritage Party: Mike Schouten (local Con member who despises Hiebert)
Ind: Aart Looye (local Con member and part of executive who despises Heibert)
So we have 5 Con party members now running for different parties and four of them are running in order to defeat disgraced Hiebert.
And the only REAL opposition candidate in the riding is progressive New Democrat Susan Keeping who has won the YWCA's Women of Distinction Award!
And inspite of 5 cons running against a con, watch the infamous, useless, right wing, so-con Russ Hiebert win again. That riding mainly comprises rich and/or old and we all know how those people vote. The local media is not doing too bad of a job tho
Sun, 2011-04-03 15:14
#54
this statigic move is step in right direcetion partian politic aside, cause its the question willl there be a next time / what will the landscape look like?
our only option to save Canada. Vote NDP, Vote Bloc, if in Quebec, Vote Liberal. Any thing But Conservative or Green!
So as it lay's the probability and how many feel this is the particular May 2, 2011 election
is the tipping point that is going to decide Canada's ultimate Direction.
below is a statement more aimed at the greens but resonates to all
http://www.flatustheflower.org/?p=491
Sun, 2011-04-03 21:38
#55
This seems like kind of a gutsy move on Layton's part and really takes the bull by the horns on this incident! what do others think?
"On Monday Mr. Layton said he will make an important announcement about retirement security. He also takes his campaign bus to the riding of Elgin-Middlesex-London where last week his candidate Ryan Dolby quit and gave his support to the Liberals to mount a greater attack against Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.
Mr. Layton will hold a rally with his new candidate, Fred Sinclair, the former riding association president who stepped in to fill the vacancy."
Mon, 2011-04-04 00:17
#56
[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auVGvM4_9XU]Elgin-Middlesex-London sticks with the NDP[/url]
Tue, 2021-11-23 19:44
#57
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Mon, 2011-04-04 20:26
#58
Fred Sinclair is a better candidate than Ryan Dolby.
Mon, 2011-04-04 20:30
#59
Please remove Ryan Dolby's name from the riding's donation page: https://secure.ndp.ca/riding/index.php?riding=35020&language=e
Mon, 2011-04-04 21:06
#60
Fred Sinclair is a better candidate than Ryan Dolby.
Not to disparage Fred Sinclair, but an old battered Teddy Ruxpin would be a better candidate than Ryan Dolby.
Mon, 2011-04-04 22:15
#61
Check this out!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-gamb...
"It was a bit of gamble for NDP Leader Jack Layton to hold a rally in the southwestern Ontario riding where one of his candidates defected just days into the election campaign to throw his support behind the Liberals....In the end, it was a gamble that seemed to pay off. An exuberant crowd of 400 filled the hall."
Tue, 2021-11-23 19:56
#62
.
Mon, 2011-04-04 22:32
#63
Hope this gives us momentum in that riding and the NDP actually does better than the libs, even if we lose to the cons. I never thought I woudl say that, but the backroom doyle guy has left a bad taste in my mouth.
Mon, 2011-04-04 22:43
#64
Arthur Cramer
Anybody else want to vote strageically?
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Mon, 2011-04-04 23:31
#65
Of course, it helps Layton that he has representation in the area already (Irene M.) to piggyback off; so it's not as quixotic a campaign-trail gesture as it may appear,,,
Mon, 2011-04-04 23:31
#66
Of course, it helps Layton that he has representation in the area already (Irene M.) to piggyback off; so it's not as quixotic a campaign-trail gesture as it may appear,,,
Tue, 2011-04-05 09:10
#67
Layton has been very good about visiting EML over the years. Mathyssen wins her riding by outworking everyone on the ground.
Doug, I know Sinclair seems like a champ compared to Dolby right now. But Dolby put in a great deal of time and effort supporting and representing the NDP. It's possible that his exit will galvanize an ant-Preston movement in the riding.
Sinclair is a much harder edged and blunt candidate. Dolby was a little too hesitant, and I have to wonder if the local NDP may have wedged him into the position.
It's a thankless job getting your ass kicked. Sinclair is more equiped to deal some damage along the way to a re-election for Preston.
Sat, 2011-05-07 12:14
#68
I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:
CON 28,958
NDP 12,436
LIB 6,812
Sat, 2011-05-07 12:20
#69
knownothing
Yep let the truth be told! Strategic Voting is Liberal Propoganda!
The Liberals made a strategic attack on the NDP at the start of the campaign.
- Bob Rae campaigned in Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar
- Vote Compass
- Left-wing platform
- Strategic Voting Campaign
Anybody got any others?
Sat, 2011-05-07 12:29
#70
Arthur Cramer
NDP candidate got twice the votes as the Lib? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sat, 2011-05-07 12:51
#71
Maybe at the NDP convention in Vancouver next month - they should give out a Ryan Dolby Memorial Award! or better yet - we should hold a "Dinner for Losers" and invite the following people:
Ryan Dolby
Christelle Bogosta
Jean-Claude Rocheleau
Paul Summerville
Chris Axworthy
...and as Bob Rae and Ujjal Dosanjh to take turns as honorary MCs at the event!
Tue, 2021-11-23 19:58
#72
.
Sat, 2011-05-07 16:02
#73
Though in the meantime, we can shoehorn this in as a token obligatory gesture
Sat, 2011-05-07 16:58
#74
You know, maybe some of those above mentioned folk would like to come back into the fold and personally I don't really like the attack. Let's not act like others do in the MSM. So are my thoughts!
Thanks for voicing that - I've been thinking much the same.
While I personally don't have any desire to see any of these folks standing for the NDP again, I am reminded that the challenge/opportunity right now is (partially) whether or not we can earn the votes of folks who have never or rarely voted NDP in the past.
A good number of those will need to be non-voters and new voters. Some of those may even be folks who have voted Conservative before (populist Reformers who may someday become disillusioned, prairie farmers who get screwed over by Harper's corporatism, new Canadians temporarily taken in by Kenney's tactics, middle class voters who finally realise that Harper is hurting them, etc...).
But a good part of those new NDP voters will probably come from the ranks of former Liberal voters. There are a good number of them who hold progressive viewpoints on most issues, and whose vision of Canadian society is probably pretty congruent with the NDPs. They've been voting Liberal out of a belief that the LPC holds those same values, or as a lesser of evils vote against the Conservatives, or because there was no viable NDP presence in their riding, etc... We need to be able to reach these voters, we need to figure out how to deliver a message that they can hear and respond to in language that makes sense to them.
I share the disdain for the turncoats and opportunists who have deserted the NDP, and I totally understand (and to some extent engage in) the ritual of ridiculing them now that the shoe has been moved to the other foot. While we shouldn't deny ourselves some of that pleasure, neither should we revel too much in it or be too smug about it.
Our message and language needs to be one of openness and welcoming to the folks we want to attract for future elections. Too much disdain and personal attacks on the people they have been voting for doesn't seem like the best way to reach them.
Sat, 2011-05-07 17:34
#75
I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:
CON 28,958
NDP 12,436
LIB 6,812
2004: 4,473
2006: 9,899
2008: 11,801
2011: 15,522
Sat, 2011-05-07 19:02
#76
I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:
CON 28,958
NDP 12,436
LIB 6,812
2004: 4,473
2006: 9,899
2008: 11,801
2011: 15,522
Probably makes sense to look at ALL the relevant numbers if we want to understand what is going on in EML
2004
Con: 20,415 (44%); LIB 15,860 (34%); NDP 6,763 (15%); Green 2,033 (4%); CHP 1,246 (3%)
2006:
Con: 23,416 (46%); LIB 13,517 (26%); NDP 9,873 (19%); Green 2,873 (6%); CHP 1,039 (2%)
2008:
Con: 22,970 (48%); LIB 11,169 (24%); NDP 9,135 (19%); Green 3,241 (7%); CHP 619 (1%)
2011:
Con: 28,958 (57%); LIB 6,812 (14%); NDP 12,436 (25%); Green 1,529 (3%); CHP 582 (1%)
So over the past 4 elections, several trends are clear.
Two parties have seen their share of the vote rise each election:
The Conservatives have seen a steady rise in their vote, from 44% to 57%, an increase of 13%.
The NDP have gone from 15% to 25%, an increase of 10%
One party has seen a steady decline in their vote over the same time:
The Liberal vote has decreased in each election, from 34% to 14%, a drop of 20%
The two minor parties have both seen fluctuations over the elections.
The Greens have dropped 1% from their 2004 performance, going from 4% to 3% (with better performances during the 2 intervening elections.
The CHP have dropped steadily from a high of 3% in 2004 to 1% in 2011.
In general it can be presumed that the Conservative increase (13%) corresponds to gaining from the Liberals (11%), while also gobbling up 2% from the CHP. Similarly, the NDP increase (10%) corresponds to gaining 9% from the Liberals and 1% from the Greens. [Obviously it is impossible to look at those numbers in anything other than generalities, in reality individual voter behaviour changes cannot be definitively accounted for, nor can the changes created by new voters entering the electorate or past voters not voting.]
With the dramatic collapse of the Liberal vote over past elections, and the Conservative rising to win a fairly strong majority over the same time, it makes no sense to talk of this riding as one as a strategic voting target in the current electoral environment. Barring a major reversal in party fortunes, incumbent retirement, or dramatic redistribution changes, it seems that EML has moved into the category of being a fairly safe Conservative seat. The Liberals are no longer in contention for the seat, and it remains to be seen if the NDP vote will continue to grow at the same rate it has in past elections. But anyone arguing that NDP supporters here should vote Liberal to defeat the Conservative (as did Ryan Dolby) clearly can find no evidence in recent voting trends.
Tue, 2021-11-23 20:00
#77
.
Sat, 2011-05-07 19:51
#78
I think magnaminity is well placed with defeated opponents who are people of principle and honour.
It is missplaced on the prefidious.
Did you know Bennedict Arnold died penniless? No one in Britain-- not even John Company-- would employ him. It's not a matter of an archaic version of honour. It's just being smart about not placing trust in someone who has violated trust in the past.
So no, you certainly don't welcome those with a proven track record of perfidy back into the fold.
They are deserters, and don't merit mention by name without subsequent expectoration, nor should we entertain any intercourse with them.
Ever.
Sat, 2011-05-07 20:55
#79
Arthur Cramer
Who is Joyce?
Sat, 2011-05-07 21:09
#80
Who is Joyce?
I would assume it is Joyce Murray, Liberal MP from Vancouver Quadra.
Tue, 2021-11-23 20:01
#81
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Tue, 2021-11-23 20:02
#82
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Sat, 2011-05-07 22:35
#83
With the dramatic collapse of the Liberal vote over past elections, and the Conservative rising to win a fairly strong majority over the same time, it makes no sense to talk of this riding as one as a strategic voting target in the current electoral environment. Barring a major reversal in party fortunes, incumbent retirement, or dramatic redistribution changes, it seems that EML has moved into the category of being a fairly safe Conservative seat.
Maybe so, technically--but esp. if the NDP has a "three hundred and eight" strategy in the works (no, not as in the website), it's worth preparing for the unexpected. After all, it went NDP provincially in 1990 (yeah, I know). and both St Thomas and the rump of urban London have a certain latent "NDP-friendliness" to them...