If you peel out Quebec, it looks like the CONs will have almost 70% of the remaining (non-Quebec) seats in Canada (NDP about 18% of the non-Quebec seats and LIB/GRN/BQ about 13% of non-Quebec seats).
So, is the NDP more of a regional party?
Also, will the majority of the 30-some LIBs tend to vote more towards the CONs or the NDP?
No the NDP is not a regional party, it just a shitty political system.
The NDP won alot more then 18 percent of the popular vote in ROC.
Go back to sleep Sven.
I wonder how you arrive at a silly question like that when, if current outcomes hold, has managed to surpass (albeit by a single seat) its previous highest seat total before factoring in the 58 seats it seems to have won in Quebec? I second NorthReport's suggestion, time for you to go back to bed.
good grief...harper gets 39% of the popular vote and 60% of Canadians go unre4presented and we get a empty question statement like that...
Okay. It was late...and I did go to sleep!...but lemme rephrase my question: Why did the NDP do so exceedingly well in Quebec relative to the ROC?
Christ...now I'm shilling for the NDP. Take a look at this map Sven, and drill down where applicable.
Christ...now I'm shilling for the NDP. Take a look at this map Sven, and drill down where applicable.
Ha! I was following that very map last night!
But, it doesn't tell me why the NDP did overwhelmingly well in Quebec yet, relative to Quebec, not very well in the ROC. Obviously, the NDP had a historic performance in much of the ROC but the disparity between Quebec and the ROC is striking, at least to me, as an outsider.
The other thing that I wasn't quite following were the comments that the election results in Quebec will stir up separatist feelings in Quebec. Why is that so?
The NDP did well in Quebec because their policies are what Quebecers want. The BLOC had two groups of supporters - one group that voted BLOC because of "separation" and another that voted BLOC because of its social democratic policies. There were people who belonged to both groups. If the BLOC no longer runs candidates in future elections (I think they might not because they might decide it does not help their "separatist" cause), then 1/2 of their vote this election will naturally migrate to the NDP as well. There is very little support for the Liberals due to scandals and not fond memories of past Liberal politicians from Quebec (Trudeau being one) and not much more for the Conservatives because most of Quebec views the party's policies as the opposite of what they believe in.
We got 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan. I think the NDP is a solid competitive party in every province of Canada. This will only improve in the next election if we work hard in Opposition and campaigning
The other thing that I wasn't quite following were the comments that the election results in Quebec will stir up separatist feelings in Quebec. Why is that so?
It will stir up separatist feelings in Quebec because it accentuates how different Quebec values are from the Rest of Canada. It is due to the FPTP (first past the post system). Because 43% of Quebecers voted NDP (and 26% voted BLOC), there were almost 70% which voted for left-of-centre parties. The lion's share of the seats went to the two parties (62/75, I think).
On the other hand, on the Prairies, the Conservatives got almost all the ridings, even though the NDP got about 25% of the vote.
The results make it look like there are almost no Canadians from the rest of Canada who share Quebec values. This will lead to a higher separatist sentiment.
If we had proportional representation, the NDP would have 5 members from Alberta, 5 from Saskatchewan and 4 from Manitoba (instead of 2 in the three provinces). This would be more representative of the reality there. Then, it would be more obvious that there is a sizeable part of the ROC that does agree with Quebec views on social democratic policies.
There are reasons related to personalities of prominent Conservative politicians but I won't get into that. I'll leave that to others.
Hey, Northern-54...thanks for those comments. They are very interesting.
The dynamics involving the political differences between Quebec and the ROC are something I'm only vaguely familiar with. Frankly, my only sense is that there is a "tension" but I don't know anything about the history of that tension...or what impact that may have on future political developments.
So, is the NDP more of a regional party?
No, it is a national party. It has elected MPs from 8 of 10 provinces and 1 of the territories.
The NDP did well in Quebec because it should do well there. Ever since the mid-70s it's seemed to me that the electorate in Quebec had political views similar to those of NDP supporters. The problem with translating those opinions into NDP votes has been the PQ and the Bloc. Now that sovereignty isn't much of an issue, the voters migrated away from the Bloc and toward the federalist party that is best aligned with most Quebeckers' views.
Back in 2003, I thought Pierre Ducasse had the best speech at the leadership convention, and that it was a shame he wasn't chosen leader, as he would have done a lot to bring Quebec into the NDP camp. Fortunately for Jack Layton, this is happening anyway.
Pierre Ducasse
Whatever became of him? I hope to hear from him more often. It's too bad he decided not to run this time, he could have won.
Okay. It was late...and I did go to sleep!...but lemme rephrase my question: Why did the NDP do so exceedingly well in Quebec relative to the ROC?
Sven, during the election campaign, I made an entry on another thread about how the Quebec electorate has made incredible shifts in their voting patterns for the past few cycles of each generation:
1957-1958-1962 elections;
1980-1984-1988-1993 elections;
2011 election.
The cycle started again on May 2nd.
Those are uninterpreted data. There may indeed be a cycle here, but you don't address Sven's "why?"
Pierre DucasseWhatever became of him? I hope to hear from him more often. It's too bad he decided not to run this time, he could have won.
Didn't he opt to start a family (or something)?
Pierre is at CUPE. They just had a baby before the campaign, and he had already run municipally last year, so he stepped aside for Nycole Turmel. He was in the warroom during the campaign, apparently, and I saw him on the french CPAC panels quite a bit in April.
The NDP won a lot more then 18 percent of the popular vote in ROC.
To be precise, 26.4%. Curiously, the NDP got 26.5% in the West, 25.6% in Ontario, and 29.5% in the Atlantic Provinces.
We got 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan. I think the NDP is a solid competitive party in every province of Canada. This will only improve in the next election if we work hard in Opposition and campaigning.
Amazingly, the NDP got excellent results in every province but Alberta and PEI. British Columbia (33% of the vote and 33% of the seats), Saskatchewan (32% of the vote and no seats), Nova Scotia (30% of the vote and 27% of the seats), Manitoba (26% of the vote and 14% of the seats), and Ontario (26% of the vote and 21% of the seats). The big news was Quebec (43% of the vote and 79% of the seats). But even in Newfoundland and Labrador the NDP jumped up to 33% of the vote and 29% of the seats, and in New Brunswick 30% of the vote but only 10% of the seats.
The NDP did well in Quebec because their policies are what Quebecers want.
Not exactly. Quebeckers didn't suddenly wake up and learn the NDP's policies. The NDP did well because:
1. There is a huge anti-Harper movement here - one which viscerally pits the "values" of the Québec nation against what is perceived to be Harper's anti-social, anti-woman, anti-environment, anti-worker values.
2. Almost everyone you spoke to wanted to stop a Harper majority - but no one knew how. The Liberals are a spent force. The Bloc misplayed its hand and couldn't answer the question, "How can you stop this? Who will ally with you?" And suddenly Layton, hitherto unknown (and still unknown!), emerged as a voice of progress, of solidarity, of humility, of cooperation - a voice not shy to talk about coalitions and with potential support all across Canada.
3. And - for the first time ever, the NDP was not afraid to openly mention the conclusions of the Sherbrooke Declaration, including asymmetrical federalism. To Quebeckers, they had a feeling that the NDP was maybe no longer the party painted as wanting to remove all powers from the provinces, ergo from Québec. And the Clarity Act went by the wayside (thank you, Jack!).
So Quebeckers took a chance on something new (as they have so often done in the past) and voted with their hearts ("values") and heads (find an effective way to oppose Harperite policies).
Sadly, the FPTP and Ontario weren't on board.
What we needed was strategic pro-NDP voting... But there's no leadership to unite those forces across Canada.
This is a phenomenon that can't be repeated in the same form, and certainly not through inertia. It was too clearly based on a chance conjuncture of the stars. But the NDP, if it stops listening to its Ontario strategists, eschews fear of getting too close to Quebeckers, and reaches out to other potential allies (QS, environmental groups, etc.), can certainly do much to avert one-hit-wonder-hood.
If the NDP really hammers home all of the enviornmental policies that they've been advocating over the years, one can always hope that (so-called) Green Party supporters might also feel that the NDP is the best way to effect change, and continue coming it's way. I have a sneaking suspicion that Elizabeth May isn't going to enjoy solo status as an Independent MP, and will be welcomed with open arms into the Liberal caucus some time before the next election. There's a half-million votes of potential growth for the NDP.
And if the Bloc Quebecois continues to go the way of the Social Credit party in the late 70's, there's almost 900,000 votes that could also look to the NDP.
Plus, there also could be more Liberal voters who wanted to vote NDP in the past, but were brain-washed into thinking that the Liberal Party was their only choice.
Far from being a high-water mark of support, the support the NDP earned in the 2011 election has the potential to keep growing, all accross Canada.
The NDP only picked up about 8 seats in the ROC despite having their most popular leader and best result of all time. That is something that should concern the NDP. Particularly in Ontario, it looks like voters moved to the Conservatives to block the NDP.
If the NDP cannot expand its base over the next few years, there will be an opportunity for the Liberals to re-emerge as the main alternative to the Conservatives since only the Liberals are likely to be able to appeal to both sides of the political spectrum and win back right of centre Libs who preferred the Cons to the NDP.
Editorial opinion of late also appears to confirm the preference for the Liberals over the NDP as the alternative to the Conservatives (eg. the recent Calgary Herlad editorial).
Yes, the big business elite and the oil patch likes having two conservative parties that can alternate in power - the Conservative (conservative) Party and Liberal (conservative) Party.
They don't like the idea that a non-conservative party might ever take power.
I'm not sure why these big "L" Liberals went on anhd on about how we all needed to "stop Harper" - when its clear that they agree with him about 98% of the time. i guess its what's called the narcissism of small difference. I think I saw some election research that showed that the only and only "issue" that unites Liberal supporters is personal dislike of Stephen Harper - but none of them mind his actual policies.
Anyways, rightwing liberals have as much right to exist as anyone - but don't come here trying to pretend to be "progressive" and then approvingly quote a red-baiting editorial from the calgary Herald!
The NDP only picked up about 8 seats in the ROC despite having their most popular leader and best result of all time. That is something that should concern the NDP.
Gee, isn't that funny, I was just thinking that the Liberals ought to be concerned about LOSING 43 seats despite all the support of the elites and all the status and money they had going into the election as the "natural government party" and "official opposition".
Chretien's election finance reforms hurt the Liberals more than any other party as they had been far too dependent on big corporate donations and they've never recovered. The business community and corporate elite gave up on the Liberals after Paul Martin lost in 2006. The Conservatives have pretty much become the equivalent to the "bourgeois" parties in Western Europe. However there is some concern among elites that when Canadians turn on the Tories and/or the Cheryl Gallant types wield too much influence in a Harper majority, there may be no "second party of business" to turn to.
HAHAHAHA Editorial Opinion of Liberal and Tory bootlickers, as if we don't know what THEY are going to say...
Even *I* can see through that, and I am politically confused at the best of times...
3. And - for the first time ever, the NDP was not afraid to openly mention the conclusions of the Sherbrooke Declaration, including asymmetrical federalism. To Quebeckers, they had a feeling that the NDP was maybe no longer the party painted as wanting to remove all powers from the provinces, ergo from Québec. And the Clarity Act went by the wayside (thank you, Jack!).
Well, it didn't last for long... Seems Layton backed away from the Sherbrooke Declaration yesterday, according to this Le Devoir headline story this morning.
Top blogs and columns are sanguine. Jean-Françoois Lisée published an obit for the 'NDP pro-Quebec stand' , while Josée Legault snarks about "Quebec's new 'voice' in Ottawa"
And the French wire of the Canadian Press tells the rest of the story:
QUEBEC - N'en déplaise à Jack Layton, la souveraineté du Québec se décidera à la majorité simple si un troisième référendum devait se tenir, ont affirmé mercredi libéraux et péquistes.
Layton just can't win in a pissing match with the Quebec liberals, péquistes. and Amir Khadir. Except for Mulcair, who's quite embarrassed, Layton's team is completely out of sync with regards to Quebec.
Take this statement on Victoria Day where he celebrates "our roots in Europe". Well, tell that to the Irish or to the sons and daughters of Patriots hanged on behalf of the British monarchy in 1839! And by the way, this holiday is called "Jour des Patriotes" in Quebec.Is that creating the kind of "winning conditions for Canada in Quebec", may I ask?
Bob Rae had a great explanation on P&P today for the Orange Wave: it was the Hula Hoop craze of 1957 all over again. 
Top blogs and columns are sanguine. Jean-Françoois Lisée published an obit for the 'NDP pro-Quebec stand' , while Josée Legault snarks about "Quebec's new 'voice' in Ottawa"
I'm shocked SHOCKED that two columnists who are hard core pur et dur sovereignists and have been all their lives are criticising a federalist party. Get me the smelling salts to revive me!
It is reasonably left wing to support national self-determination.
Lenin wrote "The Right of Nations to Self-Determination."
http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1914/self-det/index.htm
I guess the NDP is trying to prove to the Globe and Mail that it is not left wing.
I would laugh if the Quebec NDP caucus said "screw this. Let's form a Bloc"...
Especially before the House sat for the first time.
I would laugh if the Quebec NDP caucus said "screw this. Let's form a Bloc"...
(I read somewhere yesterday that a third of the Quebec NDP caucus is sovereignist - I'll look for the link. I think it was a Rabble article)
One-third of the Liberal caucus is from Atlantic Canada - which has about 5% of the national population.
(I read somewhere yesterday that a third of the Quebec NDP caucus is sovereignist - I'll look for the link. I think it was a Rabble article)
My hunch is that it's probably closer to 50%—or higher, even.
Can't find the Rabble link I was looking for, but saw this:
Quebec separation issue dogs NDP
excerpt:
One-third of the NDP’s voters still say they would vote Yes if another sovereignty referendum were held.
Can't find the Rabble link I was looking for, but saw this:
Quebec separation issue dogs NDP
excerpt:
One-third of the NDP’s voters still say they would vote Yes if another sovereignty referendum were held.
Well that is a little different from saying one third of the NDP's caucus is sovereigntist. Since polls show about 43% of Quebecers would vote Yes if another referendum was held, I imagine all parties, including the Liberals, have at least some supporters who are also sympathetic to sovereignty. But as long as Quebec is going to be a part of Canada, it is not inconsistent for a sovereigntist voter to want a representative who will actually try to achieve something for them in Ottawa, whether that representative is federalist or sovereigntist. The Bloc was perceived to have failed (or at least outlived its usefulness) so some sovereigntist voters decided to give the NDP a try, even though it was admittedly a federalist party.
Let's make sure that "Federalism" isn't just Anglo chauvanism...
Top blogs and columns are sanguine. Jean-Françoois Lisée published an obit for the 'NDP pro-Quebec stand' , while Josée Legault snarks about "Quebec's new 'voice' in Ottawa"
I'm shocked SHOCKED that two columnists who are hard core pur et dur sovereignists and have been all their lives are criticising a federalist party. Get me the smelling salts to revive me!
Well, Jack did the right thing. He gave a radio interview to Michel Desautels broadcast late Wednesday afternoon on Radio-Canada to confirm the Sherbrooke Declaration was still alive. He even mentioned "50%+1", not once, but twice.
As for the "Hard core pur et dur" columnist dissed offhandedly by Stockholm, they're not to be confused with http://vigile.net . And, by the way, the "Pur et dur" coalition today included distinguished radicals such as Quebec intergovernmental affairs minister Pierre Moreau, Bernard Drainville, Gérard Deltell and Amir Khadir. Pretty much widespread, I dare say.
And, just so you know, Lisée even has readers in the NDP caucus. Well, at least one confirmed reader. Dany Morin, the new MP from Chicoutimi Le Fjord made sure Lisée knew about the Layton interview on Desautels...
The guys at the NDP head office will have to start paying attention to what's going on in Quebec, or you'll get bitten in the arse ;)
I couldn't find the link I was looking for, but I agree with Bärlüer that probably, possibly more than 1/3 of the Quebec NDP MPs are sovereignists. Just a hunch. I guess we'll know eventually, although I don't see any reason why an MP would declare their position on sovereignty unless asked directly.
What does it mean to be a "sovereignist" in the first place? Does it mean that you are someone who is 100% committed to the total indepndence of Quebec any time and any place and that you are 100% certain to vote YES in any future referendum no matter what the wording and no matter what the context? If that's how you define a sovereignist then I suspect that 0% of the NDP caucus are sovereignists.
If on the other hand we mean someone who does not rule out the possibility that they might conceivably vote Yes in a hypothetical referendum in the distant future IF the PQ wins two majority governments in a row and IF they manage to create "winning conditions" for a new referendum and IF the rest of Canada/the Harper government does something that is so provocative and such a calculated insult to Quebec that it cannot be ignored and IF the federal government under Harper imposes an extreme rightwing reign of terror including banning abortion rights and same sex marriage and has Canada send troops into a new imperialist war etc...then I'm sure a lot of NDP MPs in Quebec as well as outside Quebec might potentially be sovereignists. Under those circumstances, I would vote YES in a referendum to have the City of Toronto secede from Canada!
BTW: several NDP MPs from very nationalist ridings have stated unequivocally that they consider themselves federalists. I noticed that Pierre-Luc Dussault of Sherbrooke said in an interview that he was a federalist and so did Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet who represents the supposedly ultra nationalist riding of Hochelaga!
Stockholm wrote:
"What does it mean to be a "sovereignist" in the first place? Does it mean that you are someone who is 100% committed to the total indepndence of Quebec any time and any place and that you are 100% certain to vote YES in any future referendum no matter what the wording and no matter what the context? If that's how you define a sovereignist then I suspect that 0% of the NDP caucus are sovereignists."
My reply:
Given that Quebec is governed by a federalist premier, and that the PQ are on record as saying they will not hold a referendum until winning conditions are realized, one can be committed to sovereignty without having to broadcast that fact from the rooftops daily. The BQ realized that a referendum is probably many years away, but rather than be despondent about it, they used QP to stand up for Quebec's interests.
With regard to the new NDP MPs in Quebec, because the NDP is the party of the Sherbrooke Declaration, I think it's entirely possible that a good percentage of them are sovereigntists - but they, like everyone else, know that the next referendum is still quite a ways away - so rather than shout their sovereignist credentials from the rooftops at every opportunity, they'll most likely do the intelligent thing and stand up for Quebec's interests from within their caucus.
I think a lot of Quebecers (and probably some NDP MPs) are sovereignist when Canada = Harper and would be federalist when Canada = Layton.
Hell, I've been saying that Harper has been growing the sovereignist cause for years.
...and yet, remarkably even after 5 years of Harper as PM, support for sovereignty has not budged at all - in fact it was much higher when Chretien was PM. The conventional wisdom used to be that support for sovereignty would go up if Canada had a Tory government with little or no Quebec representation - that's why Levesque was crushed when Joe Clark was turfed after 8 months and Trudeau came back.
Someone posted from a CROP poll that has sovereignth right now at 43% - that's hardly under the radar, and it seems to me as we get closer to the PQ winning the next election in two years, it is bound to get much higher, the rationale being that we know we have a federalist premier who will not entertain a referendum, and that we know the PQ will not bring in a referendum unless winning conditions are met. So, 43% under these oppressive conditions is rather remarkable.
During the press conference, Layton was asked a question along the lines of Canadians outside of Quebec perceiving the party as being too Quebec. His response was that people want to work together to build a good country for all. This is the exact right approach to take to the question, along with making sure every NDP candidate has a platform to point to and say, "this specifically is what the NDP will do do benefit this region."
So if we in Canada want to support Quebec self-determination, shouldn't we vote Tory?
This is what I am reading between the lines here...
Someone posted from a CROP poll that has sovereignth right now at 43% - that's hardly under the radar, and it seems to me as we get closer to the PQ winning the next election in two years, it is bound to get much higher, the rationale being that we know we have a federalist premier who will not entertain a referendum, and that we know the PQ will not bring in a referendum unless winning conditions are met. So, 43% under these oppressive conditions is rather remarkable.
I don't see that at all. Support for sovereignty was very high in the early 90s when Bourassa was still premier - it crashed in the early 00s when the PQ was still in power. Keep in mind that most polls also show that the vast majority of Quebecers don't want another referendum and the PQ could easily lose the next election if for no other reason than that Quebecers don't want another referendum.
[b]My prediction: The NDP will be torn apart over the national question in Quebec. It may not happen this year, it may not happen next year, but it will happen.[/b]
Un premier clivage est apparu hier entre les troupes néodémocrates et leur chef Jack Layton sur une question toute québécoise. Si un autre référendum sur la séparation du Québec devait avoir lieu, quel niveau d'appui le Oui devrait-il obtenir pour être reconnu par le NPD? 50 % + 1 des voix, disent certains députés. On verra, dit plutôt M. Layton. - [url=http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/323992/loi-sur-la-clarte-layton... Devoir[/url]
The NDP has no choice but to confront the Quebec question and attempt to develop a coherent and principled position. This can only be done through a wide-open discussion throughout the ranks of its members and supporters, and through engagement with the movement for Quebec independence — and especially with the progressive leading edge of that movement, Québec Solidaire. The debate must be conducted above all within the working class and its organizations outside Quebec, in the other provinces and territories. It is long overdue, and the NDP will pay a serious price for any further attempts to evade it. - [url=http://lifeonleft.blogspot.com/2011/05/layton-chooses-supreme-court-clar... Fidler[/url]
