NDP Leadership Thread - Part 4

ottawaobserver wrote:

Possibilities considered by one or more Babblers or pundits:

 * Jack Harris
 * Guy Caron
 * Romeo Saganash
 * Françoise Boivin
 * David Miller
 * Niki Ashton
 * Ryan Meili
 * Pat Atkinson
 * Lewis Cardinal
 * Nathan Cullen

Sentimental favourites of some Babblers, but who are considered unlikely:

 * Stephen Lewis
 * Avi Lewis
 * Naomi Klein
 * Libby Davies

How'd I do so far? [I've amended this post a few times to keep it comprehensive and grammatically sound.]

There has also been some media buzz about Olivia Chow - though I would pout her in that lower "sentimental favourite but unlikely to run" category. Then there is "person X". I heard Capstick muse about someone enter the race from outside politics or that Brian Topp might be a "stalking horse" for a 'player to be named later".

Mulcair live here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/08/30/pol-ndp-leadership-cand...

Kady O'Malley calls it the shortest Mulcair scrum in history.

Could we retire the word moderate.  The word has no definable meaning and is a subjective term based solely on the observers political biases. To me it says a left liberal by another name is still a liberal. 

 I suspect that all the afore mentioned politicians would hold views that are nuanced. For instance a NATO hawk might still have a a passion for human rights.  Are they a moderate or not?  Pretty hard to determine.  Some of the potential candidates might have voted to criminalize gay sex for teenagers but still hold other more left wing views on women's rights.  

Checked the article about Mulcaire.  That picture says a lot about the CBC these days.  Media manipulation alright. Somebody there doesn't like Mulcaire. Don't know anything about him really, but I sure hate that kind of stuff from our public broadcaster. Cue my own hypocracy - unless it's aimed at Harper of course.  Then it shows his true character.

The wiki ndp leadership page is starting to come together. Unlike ottawaobserver's insightful list, wiki does not categorize the candidates. It does have a handy, although still incomplete, Bilingual yes/no column

Stockholm wrote:

Then there is "person X". I heard Capstick muse about someone enter the race from outside politics or that Brian Topp might be a "stalking horse" for a 'player to be named later".

I do hope so (and my longshot hope is that she's Michaelle Jean). Regardless, a fresh and unexpected face - so long as the candidacy is credible - would be great for the party and for politics, regardless of the outcome.

SRB wrote:

Sarann wrote:

Checked the article about Mulcaire.  That picture says a lot about the CBC these days.  Media manipulation alright. Somebody there doesn't like Mulcaire. Don't know anything about him really, but I sure hate that kind of stuff from our public broadcaster. Cue my own hypocracy - unless it's aimed at Harper of course.  Then it shows his true character.

I think he's one of the more credible candidates in the NDP, and perhaps in the minds of some at CBC this makes him a threat to the Liberals or something.  They've long posted unflattering pictures of him and stories about him, even when Jack was still leader. They had an even more unflattering picture of him up recently, obviously fighting tears after receiving a hug from Libby.

As for Mulcair's announcement, he will still have to win support throughout the country as well as signing up new members -- just like every other candidate for the leadership.

As far as signing up new members is concerned, the last date for that in the 2003 Leadership election was December 10th, 2002. Given similar timelines, that still gives over three months to sign up new members. 

Sarann wrote:

A cautionary tale.  I was a Blaikey supporter, being an old prairie Tommy Douglas social democrat, but I asked my local MP (an NDP of course) who he thought would be the best person to lead the party and he said Jack Layton.  He was right.  I think you have to work at close quarters with people to tell who has the best leadership qualities. All the media speculation and all the outside of party speculation is just nonsense.

Yeah, this is exactly where I'm at these days. I voted for Blaikie last time, enthusiastically, but it didn't take long after Jack won for me to realize that I'd been misguided. So I'm going to try to be open to everyone this time, and give each of them a real chance to convince me.

I have read Naomi Klein mentioned and Avi Lewis and even Louise Arbour (now wouldn't that drive the conservatives crazy).

Is there a way I can watch P&P online? I've been looking on the cbc website...

Martin says if he doesn't hear someone talking up cooperation with the Liberals, he'll jump in and be the "unity" candidate.

Pat Martin, Unity Candidate sounds, well, hilarious.

How exactly will anyone be able to tear the NDP apart?  Media type needs sensational story, let's give it to them!  The more exciting the better.

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Any suggestions about media sources to follow the leadership race where they don't/won't play these sensationalist (set the foxes among the chickens) games? On a side note, it would make me very happy if any future announced leadership contenders would make a point of reaching out to progressive media (e.g. rabble, the tyee, etc) so we could get to know them better (e.g. beyond the yellow headlines and sound bites).

One of the pundits on P&P suggested it will take one more federal election - hinting that the Conservatives will win again - for folks to realize maybe a merger isn't such a bad idea.

We don't need to defeat Conservatives in the next election.  We need to defeat the beliefs that they stand for.  To do that we need to speak with a consistent message.  That will not happen with a merger.

Boom Boom wrote:

Pat Martin's call for "unity" does raise an important question, though: what is the best way to defeat the Conservatives in 2015? 

I'll be looking at the polling carefully now. Polling should show the degree of support that would exist if the NDP and Liberals merged, versus their stand-alone support. I think there was polling along these lines before the last election when the NDP became the Official Opposition. There should be new polling now that the NDP are the OO - does the voting public believe the NDP can go further and actually form government, or would the Conservatives be more likely to be defeated by a united Liberal/NDP?

Personally, I'm not concerned with the NDP maintaining Official Opposition status in the next election - I want the Conservatives defeated. What is the best way to achieve that? I'd suggest electing a new leader with a high charisma factor as well as proven electoral smarts - someone who might entice the Liberals to jump ship and join with the NDP.

OO and Lou Arab have started laying out some great ideas in this vein.

One of their ideas I would like to echo is the need to energise Canada's First Nations communities to engage with the democratic process. If you look at the numbers, I think there is a strong case to be made that as thing stand the NDP is probably very competitive in every single "northern" riding in Canada. If you added a surge in First Nation participation, to the benefit of the NDP, to that mix, I believe the NDP could sweep every riding north of 54 degrees lattitude. The keys are candidate recruitment, a communications and organising campaign, greater voter enfranchisement(e.g. polls)/registration, policies to help the young populations of these communities connect with a brighter future, and addressing critical infrastructure gaps/needs.

Another issue is the collapsing Liberal party in Atlantic Canada. This is a moment of opportunity, those votes are very much up for grabs between the NDP and Conservatives in the provinces of Newfoundland & Labrador (where the NDP is going from strength to strength), Nova Scotia (where outside of the former NDP stronghold of Cape Breton the Liberals are in increasing trouble), New Brunswick (where for the first time in history the Liberals were driven in to 3rd place [virtually province-wide] and the NDP missed winning Moncton [for the first time ever] by a couple thousand votes with virtually no ground game).

In Québec, I think every seat is potentially at play. The weakest region for the NDP is clearly Southeastern Québec, but even there they ran a strong second. Probably the hardest seats to win would be the rich anglo seats in Montréal, but if Cotler and Dion retire, and the NDP recruits star candidates, these seats will fall too. Cotler and Dion are impediments to the NDP because they are left of centre Liberals with a great deal of integrity. As Jack said to Cotler once, they're in the wrong party (although I'm sure some NDPers would be fine not have Cotler's strong support of Israel or Dion's sword-crossing with sovereigntists within the NDP tent). I can dream of a day in which the only non-NDP seat in Québec might be Scarpallegia's. A seat the Liberals have been trying to push him out of for the last several years now so that they can "bring in some new blood." Anyways, the NDP needs to press hard in to the demographics of the seats that remain in rivals hands in Québec not so much because they can expect big gains in the province but because the best defence (with so many incumbents to defend and the BQ not yet retired) is offence, and any seat losses can be offset with seat gains so long as the NDP is playing for keeps.

In Ontario, I feel strongly that the NDP needs to reach out to visible minority populations (who have been abandoning the Liberals in droves) and the francophone community in Eastern Ontario. As it stands, francophone Eastern Ontario has changed from a Liberal fortress with the NDP in the single digits, to a genuine three-way race. In the last election, part of the dynamic that was playing out in Québec began playing itself out here and these communities are also quite tied in to Ottawa, including through (mostly francophone) public servants that make the commute back and forth. Ottawa-Vanier, for instance, needs a star candidate and full targetting next time. On the visible minority front, it is the low and middle income areas around Toronto that need to be targetted (e.g. Miss, Brampton, Scarborough, Etobicoke) on the basis of economic status and the NDP's historic championing of minorities. The NDP also needs to target Ontario's small cities, with urbanised populations of professionals (e.g. London, Waterloo, Kitchener, Guelph, Peterborough, etc). A platform that targets these cities infrastructural needs and addresses concerns about quality of life and sustainability can raise the NDP's fortunes here. Lastly, I think the NDP needs to put in an effort but be realistic about its chances in rural Ontario. In many areas of rural Ontario, the NDP is running up against large Conservative majorities. Winning these seats is at best a two (probably three)-election process, because the margins are so disproportionate. With the exception of rural areas tied to manufacturing bases with urban sections in the riding (e.g. Essex, Lambton-, Sarnia, Elgin-Middlesex-London), the NDP is running up against a serious head wind in these areas.

In the praries, redistribution will play a key role in the NDP's fortunes in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and less likely British Columbia. In Manitoba, the path forward is to have a very detailed and audacious plan to sweep Winnipeg, while trying to stir up an NDP upwelling in Selkirk-Interlake and Saint Boniface. This relatively tight area of targetting should make a win do-able with the right amount of planning. One factor the NDP has to consider is how to manage its optical distance from provincial politics so as to avoid swoons in popular support while not jettisoning the NDP's strong base of provincial support.

In Saskatchewan, redistribution will play a key role, but the party badly needs a renewal here. The activist base needs to be rebuilt, the party needs to become younger, more democratic, and much more (rebellious)/populist. The NDP should run on platforms of economic populism mixed with hammering the Tories over health care. On health care, blame games and throwing money at problems aren't the answer, innovation (as Layton would argue) is the answer. What can the NDP put forward in the way of innovative ideas for revitalising health care? Without greatly adding to the fiscal burden?

In BC, the NDP needs to work on candidate recruitment, resource development questions, and green issues to push forward on three fronts: 1) sweeping Vancouver Island (with the exception of Saanich-Gulf Islands, this is truly doable; resource development, fiscal policy, and health care innovation are key, the unheld Island is a weird mix mix of rural areas, urban retirees, and the Comox airbase [which could mean have a more robust policy direction on the Canadian air force]) 2) Eroding the Liberal grip on upper middle class Greater Vancouver (green issues, fiscal policy issues) and ethnic communities (candidate recruitment, bread and butter issues...this is a very similar campaign as has to be run in the areas around Toronto) 3) Consolidating small pockets of support in the Conservative interior (resource issues, economic populism, candidate recruitment, and energising First Nations are the key...very few ridings are seriously at play though so targetting must be limited and very strategic).

That's my vision of the campaign road map. In the air war, the NDP needs to mitigate its weaknesses on the economic file, big time. It also needs to identify the Conservatives key polling weaknesses on social issues and try to expand these during the next sessions of Parliament. To quote Sun Tzu, "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

JeffWells wrote:

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Does this include Bob Rae?

[quote=Lord Palmerston]

[quote=JeffWells]

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

[/quote]

Does this include Bob Rae?

That's something the MSM seems to be totally deaf to.(sorry about the dangling participle) Some commenters seem to think as an ex dipper he'd be the one to build bridges.   Bob Rae is about as welcome within NDP circles as Mad Cow Disease at the Royal Winter Fair.

[/quote]

Lord Palmerston wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

I agree with what Cheri diNovo posted on FB this afternoon, re merger:

To my Liberal friends and colleagues: you are welcome to become New Democrats at any time. Just call any of our campaign offices.

Does this include Bob Rae?

Sure, let him take out a membership. I don't believe he could win a riding's nomination if he tried, though.