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How can the NDP hang onto its gains in Quebec if it picks a leader from outside Quebec?

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Thu, 2011-09-29 04:27

#1

Ken Burch

How can the NDP hang onto its gains in Quebec if it picks a leader from outside Quebec?

Anyone supporting a non-Quebec candidate for the NDP leadership will need to wrestle with this question.

There is a real danger of the party, if it chooses a leader from someplace else, facing the same backlash that the Diefenbaker Tories faced in the early 60's. In the 1958 election, the Tories swept Quebec for the first time in decades...but then Dief pissed away Quebec support by not naming any Quebec MP's to any important ministries(possibly because of Dief's personal prejudices against francophones and Catholics, both of which are well-documented.) This was interpreted by Quebecers as a declaration that THAT party had no intention of rewarding them for their support. Result: Tory support collapsed in Quebec in 1962, and didn't recover until 1984-22 years later.

I think there's a real danger that if the NDP, after the massive Quebec gains of 2010, chooses a new leader from somewhere else, Quebec voters will take that as a slap in the face(and probably go straight back to the Bloc). And it's likely that it would take at least as long for the NDP to recover as it did for the PC's.

Which non-Quebec NDP leadership candidate, as you folks see it, has the best chance of keeping Quebec in the NDP column, and, regardless of who you support, what do you think the NDP will have to do to prevent mass Quebec defections in the event of the election of a non-Quebec leader? And which such candidate has enough strong points that they're actually worth taking the risk of losing dozens of Quebec seats? If you're backing a non-Quebec candidate, that's a question that candidate will have to answer and answer extremely convincingly.

And one final question...

I know some people have argued that the NDP also has to make gains in the West to win next time(and of course this is true)but won't those gains be meaningless if their accompanied with heavy Quebec losses?

Thu, 2011-09-29 07:22

#2

David Young

Why is there this constant narrative that the NDP is doomed to lose support in Quebec no matter who is elected leader?

Give the new MPs the chance over the next four years to show what they can do. After watching them so far, I can safely say that they are an outstanding group.

That will be the determining factor as to whether or not Quebec voters decide to show support to the NDP again, not necessarily who the next leader turns out to be.

Thu, 2011-09-29 09:46

#3

genstrike

Well, clearly Quebecers will only vote for the NDP if their leader is from Quebec. I mean, it's obvious that the NDP would never do well in Quebec under a leader who spent his last 40 years or so living in Toronto and built pretty much his entire career beyond undergraduate student politics there.

Oh wait.

Thu, 2011-09-29 09:56

#4

Ken Burch

Layton was born in Quebec, though, and had that story about sneaking francophone friends into his dad's bigoted club.

Thu, 2011-09-29 10:59

#5

duncan cameron

I think the point worth making is that a leader must be both bilingual and at ease in both national linguistic communities in order to succeed. Most of the M.P.s running for the party and winning over the last few decades would never have expected to have in their midst unilingual Francophones, and to find that Canadians from outside Quebec would be in the majorty in the caucus. That is the new reality.

Charles Taylor used to make the point that new arrivals to Canada could be expected to be welcomed in one of two languages, that is the Canadian reality. A leader has to be able to flourish in dealings with both communities.

For an Anglophone, speaking French is necessary for anyone expecting to hold a significant position in the party.

Thu, 2011-09-29 11:06

#6

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

M. Spector's picture

The answer to the question posed in the thread title is : By coming up with a clear and coherent analysis of the national question that recognizes the right of Quebec to self-determination.

Quebec leader or no, the NDP will not live long and prosper in Quebec as long as it tries to be just another federalist party.

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:17

#7

Ken Burch

That's a good response, Spector.

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:35

#8

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

Ken I don't share your less than flattering idea that most Quebecois are so shallow as to be insulted unless one of their own is elected leader. I think the NDP won seats in Quebec because of what the party stood for and the quality of the candidates they recruited in what most thought would be largely losing races. I think the people of Quebec are open to ideas and leaders from other parts of the confederation and are not nearly as parochial as you appear to believe they are. As I have said before I think at the end of the campaign you will see that many of the 59 MP's Quebecers put their faith in will be supporting candidates from other provinces. That is how to keep the party together. The NDP will gain from this leadership campaign if all the candidates appeal to members from all regions. If it becomes an Us against Them battle both the party and Canada will lose.

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:04

#9

wage zombie

Northern Shoveler wrote:

Ken I don't share your less than flattering idea that most Quebecois are so shallow as to be insulted unless one of their own is elected leader.

...

The NDP will gain from this leadership campaign if all the candidates appeal to members from all regions. If it becomes an Us against Them battle both the party and Canada will lose.

Agreed.

Ken, I agree with most of your political views but I think you write a lot of "the sky is falling" posts for someone who doesn't live in Canada.

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:09

Ken Burch

It wasn't meant to be a "the sky is falling" thread. It just struck me that this could be a real issue, based on some past events(like the Tory collapse in Quebec in 1962). I hope Quebec keeps voting NDP no matter what.

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:12

KenS

And ikf you want to get into the utilitarian pragmatics- there are downside possibilities all over the place....

But in my opinion, Quebec is more ready for another 'Quebec friendly' NDP leader who they like regardless that per is an 'outsider'..... than the NDP supporter universe in the West (and possibly Maritimes) is ready to wholeheartedly welcome a new NDP leader who is from and very much first politicaly based in Quebec.

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:37

Pogo

Pogo's picture

I think this is different from the last race in that the Quebec credentials required is more than the ability to survive a debate in french. The leader has to not only hold the right views on Quebec's important issues but he/she has to understand these issues fully.

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:54

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

M. Spector's picture

Pogo wrote:

The leader has to not only hold the right views on Quebec's important issues but he/she has to understand these issues fully.

D'oh! No more faking it! [img]http://archive.rabble.ca/babble/eek.gif[/img]

But it's not just the "leader"; it's the entire party that needs to understand Quebec's issues. This will require a massive internal party discussion and education program, as well as a wholesale re-evaluation of party policy on Quebec.

Thu, 2011-09-29 17:03

wage zombie

M. Spector wrote:

But it's not just the "leader"; it's the entire party that needs to understand Quebec's issues. This will require a massive internal party discussion and education program, as well as a wholesale re-evaluation of party policy on Quebec.

Yes, I agree.

Thu, 2011-09-29 18:58

Ken Burch

David Young wrote:

Why is there this constant narrative that the NDP is doomed to lose support in Quebec no matter who is elected leader?

That wasn't what this thread was saying, David. I realize that there's a good chance that the next NDP leader WON'T be from Quebec. The question then becomes, what does that leader need to do to hold on to NDP support there? We can assume that a leader with no ties at all to Quebec will have at least some more trouble with that.

Thu, 2011-09-29 20:50

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

M. Spector wrote:

But it's not just the "leader"; it's the entire party that needs to understand Quebec's issues. This will require a massive internal party discussion and education program, as well as a wholesale re-evaluation of party policy on Quebec.

Again that is a problem that should rectify itself with this leadership campaign. For the Quebec voice to heard there needs to be viable riding associations in at least 59 if not all the ridings. When that voice arises in the party the resulting dialogue will take the direction those voices choose for it to take. I hope that the at least 5% of the people who voted for the party last time want to have a dialogue. Only Quebec voters can build a vibrant provincial wing of the party.

I am always wary of "education" programs in political parties. I am not totally opposed but only if all sides of issues are presented. There is no consensus on how to restructure the country in any province in the country. Quebec itself is deeply divided and Ontario is terrified of losing its spouse. However all the rest of the family needs their voices to be heard as well. People engaging in open and honest dialogue with no preconceived outcomes is IMO the best way to come up with new innovations and policies.

Thu, 2011-09-29 22:04

Ken Burch

Why are you assuming that Quebec is in league with Ontario AGAINST the West? You do realize that Quebec and Ontario have, historically, been severely at odds with each other, don't you? And that living in Quebec and Ontario is not a guarantee of economic privilege for the majority of the population.

The issue is class, not region. Working-class people in B.C., Ontario AND Quebec have much more in common than not. What has to happen is the realizition of that common ground. Regionalism is a useless tool for political organizing in this day and age.

Fri, 2011-09-30 00:48

theleftyinvestor

Peter Julian is a leader from outside Quebec but with serious legitimacy there.

I also think that Paul Dewar, despite not being so strong in French, knows his issues and would go over well in Quebec.

I don't know enough about Brian Topp to say much on that front.

Fri, 2011-09-30 02:57

Malcolm

Malcolm's picture

Brian Topp was born in Quebec and lived there until he was a young adult. FRench is his first language.

Fri, 2011-09-30 03:01

Malcolm

Malcolm's picture

Oh, and from 1990 until 2007, he had the distinction of being the only New Democrat who had ever managed a winning election campaign in the Province of Quebec. (He was campaign manager for Phil Edmonston, 1990 byelection victory.)

Fri, 2011-09-30 07:03

KenS

Ken, you are digging deeper with your very limited understanding of the subtleties and interplay of regionalism in Canada.

Fri, 2011-09-30 12:53

flight from kamakura

imo, there's no way the ndp can hold the quebec gains without a quebec leader or a leader who has a very very compelling quebec narrative. a non-quebec leader wouldn't lose all the seats maybe not even half, but definitely can't hold them all, there's just no way.

Fri, 2011-09-30 14:21

NorthReport

I'm not sure how folks are defining a Quebec leader. Was Jack a Quebec leader or was he an Ontario leader. Which is it? ;)

Harper was born in Toronto yet has very much cultivated a Western image of himself.

The NDP is in very good hands now in Quebec - but we do need to win the West to form government, and it would be helpful politically if the next leader had some kind of connection there -either through birth or living there, although it is the person themself that will make or break us. Yes of coursethe NDP is a team but to underrate the importance of the leader is not politically astute.

I'm from Quebec and understand the real cultural concerns about living surrounded by a sea of English, but Canada is changing quite dramatically, and unless we grasp and effectively work with this multiculturalism fact now the NDP will be doomed.

It's great we now have people such as Filipino Mable Elmore Jenny Kwan, Olivia Chow, and Romeo Saganash representing us, but I almost want an affirmative multicultural action plan to bring visible minorities off the back pages and onto the front pages of our society.

Fri, 2011-09-30 15:10

theleftyinvestor

In regards to multiculturalism - it seems to me at the BC & federal that the wave of visible minorities in the NDP's electorate and caucuses was relatively recent enough that many minorities are still only future stars. Trailblazers like Jenny and Olivia have certainly inspired a lot of people. I think the next leadership race after this one, whenever that may be, is going to be a *lot* less white. And I look forward to that.

Fri, 2011-09-30 15:13

NorthReport

Why wait for spring, let's do it now!

Fri, 2011-09-30 16:53

Polunatic2

If Mulclair doesn't become leader, will there be consequences? e.g. Will he jump ship to the Libs? Will he try to create a new party? Am I looking for intrigue where none exists?

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:08

Gaian

It would be very instructive if we could hear from inside Quebec. Lots of yacking from elsewhere.
Any chance, Rabble?

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:13

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

Polunatic2 wrote:

If Mulclair doesn't become leader, will there be consequences? e.g. Will he jump ship to the Libs? Will he try to create a new party? Am I looking for intrigue where none exists?

If he was that shallow he would not have run for the NDP when he first did. So yes I would say looking for intrigue where there is none.

So far I have no problem with a leader form Quebec however if the mantra becomes it MUST be a leader from Quebec then that will not promote unity within the party. The mantra has been MUST be fluently bilingual and that is more or less universally accepted within the party. Taking it too the extent that the party is now obligated to elect a Quebec leader is quite the leap in a democracy.

So is it separatists that are pushing this must be a Quebec leader or the NDP is toast story?

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:15

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

North Report and Flight from K not good enough for you? I think we have a couple of other Quebecois posting as well on this subject but it is always hard to tell what province a poster is from.

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:25

Unionist

Gaian wrote:
It would be very instructive if we could hear from inside Quebec. Lots of yacking from elsewhere. Any chance, Rabble?

I'm inside Québec. Here's my opinion (in brief).

Quebeckers voted for the NDP because: 1. They viscerally wanted to defeat Harper and the values he represents. 2. They gave up hope that voting for the Bloc could accomplish that. 3. They became enamoured of Jack Layton - his personal courage, his humour and humility, his lack of fear about coalitions etc.

#1 failed, #2 is still true, #3 ended tragically.

So, if I were an NDP booster, I'd concentrate on #1. Is there a future leader that can actually project that aim, that can say and do what is needed (building alliances, engaging in extra-parliamentary actions, etc.) to make that happen? If yes, pick her and carry on. Don't wait for another Jack - the law of averages is working against you. And be quick about it. Your honeymoon will soon come to an end.

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:29

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

M. Spector's picture

Northern Shoveler wrote:

Taking it to the extent that the party is now obligated to elect a Quebec leader is quite the leap in a democracy.

For many years there was an unofficial tradition in the Liberal Party of Canada that its leaders would be elected alternately from English and French Canada. Candidates for party leader were routinely ruled out or ruled in on that basis. Nobody ever complained that that was incompatible with a democracy.

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:44

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

Yes and us anglos were offered John Turner as a "western" english candidate. You know at the time of the Reform awakening. But then after John's quick departure they had three leaders in a row from Quebec but since Martin was an anglo-Quebecer he was the english leader. So tell me after Dion, who was the third leader in a row from La Belle province, how have the Liberals been doing. Gee, maybe, just maybe Quebec voters are not as parochial as you presume.

Peter Julian is fluently bilingual but now he must be from QUebec as well. A mere 13 years living and working in French in Quebec is irrelevant since he is not from Quebec. Topp who has not spent as much of his adult life in Quebec as Julian was born in Quebec so does he qualify and Peter doesn't? Arbitrary rules are usually fatally flawed.

I have never belonged to the Liberal party but from afar it was never my standard for how to run a party democratically. Back room deals are us was the Liberal party message to its supporters. I was hoping that the members of the New DEMOCRATIC Party would have the say over things like the leadership not the elite movers and shakers.

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:51

Boom Boom

Boom Boom's picture

I just watched the interview with Nathan Cullen on P&P - wow, he looks and sounds great! He said he is fully competent in French, not to the degree of Thomas Mulcair, but still very competent. I wasn't sure he was going to enter the race, but now that he has, I hope he does really, really well - I like him. He really attacked Harper and Campbell over the HST in BC, by the way.

Fri, 2011-09-30 17:59

Ken Burch

Julian and Topp would probably not cause a problem, having at least some Quebec connections. The issue would mainly come in with those candidates who had no ties to Quebec at all and hadn't expressed any interest in reaching out to it.

Northern, at some point you're going to have to let go of the idea that someone can either speak for "the West" or Central Canada,(or the Maritimes)but not all of them. The NDP needs to have appeal throughout the country and needs to base this appeal on not playing the regions against each other.

And, in this day and age, can anyone really still argue that "the West" is disadvantaged as a region?

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:02

wage zombie

I really hope Peter Julian runs.

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:08

Sean in Ottawa

I would not assume all people from Quebec have the same opinion on the importance of the next leader being from or heavily associated with Quebec.

It is incredibly insulting to Mulcair to presume he would leave if he did not win. I find the suggestion offensive unless there is some evidence. Mulcair himself has been the most passionate about questions of his loyalty.

NDP MPs feel they can almost taste winning and want to do everything right to get there. I am not endorsing Davies' decision but is seems it is part of a desire to chose someone who can win. (I also suspect there could be Mid-east politics in the background and a stop Mulcair bid but that does not mean he would leave the party if he lost).

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:12

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

Nathan has been a strong voice in the House for many years. He is great on the environment and will bring a much needed perspective to the race. I beleive that in terms of travel time his ridiing is the farthest away from Ottawa. He represents an extremely large and mostly rural riding. Some of the biggest battles over the environment are currently being waged in his riding. He has worked extensively with the FN's in the area to oppose any pipeline to a deep water tanker port. The race needs articulate candidates and he certainly is one. So far of the declared candidates I have Nathan and Romeo as my preferences. Libby has me respecting Brian more than I did before but not enough to convince me to vote for him. As for Thomas I am extremely wary of the fact that he was a Liberal cabinet minister.

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:18

Ken Burch

I agree with most of that analysis.

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:22

Sean in Ottawa

Well if we could have an NDP premier find his true home in the Liberals it is possible a Liberal could find his home in the NDP. Remember that when Mulcair was a Liberal provincially there was no QS and no Quebec NDP.

Sorry but I am tiring of the criticism of Mulcair for being a Liberal given that this was a time when Quebec had only two viable parties and were not divided by ideology as opposed to approaches to nationalism. I think he has been vocal enough on NDP issues and has earned respect as a New Democrat.

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:33

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Northern Shoveler's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Northern, at some point you're going to have to let go of the idea that someone can either speak for "the West" or Central Canada,(or the Maritimes)but not all of them. The NDP needs to have appeal throughout the country and needs to base this appeal on not playing the regions against each other.

I do not believe that. In fact what I am arguing is for not playing the regions off against each other. Saying that the next leader has to be from Quebec is IMO playing the regions off against each other. It is precisely because of that dynamic that I object to those kinds of arbitrary rules.

If you go back and read my posts you will see I have been saying what the NDP needs is for its Quebec voters to build the party and that the central office should run an effect campaign to reach out to NDP voters in Quebec and convince them to get involved as members. I do not believe there is a consensus on the constitutional issue amongst the people who voted NDP in Quebec. I believe the party's biggest mistake would be to jump into the constitutional issue without a broad based membership in Quebec. Any constitutional policy must arise from a membership base in Quebec otherwise it is just playing politics not engaging in democracy.

I presume that with 59 MP's the caucus will be getting a large Quebec perspective and the party messaging will change accordingly. I have also noted that to win and build the party all the candidates are going to need support from all the regions. That is how you build a nation. I objected to your misguided attempt at defining western alienation and I always object to the Quebec versus RoC duality because that to me is an Us against Them way of approaching the problem and it is counter productive to Canadian unity.

Stating that BC is not Nfld and neither one of their voices will be heard in a Ontario dominated duality is not an evil thought just my view of my country. We have been a confederation for over a hundred years and Nfld only joined after WWII so I have no problem saying that I think Canada needs constitutional reform but not by turning our confederation into a duality. Before someone misinterprets IMO Quebec has the right to chose to leave the confederation and become a separate state.

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:57

KenS

I dont think its an issue, but since it was asked, it will float around....

Front runners for leadership who do not get it, know frequently that there will not be another crack. Or very unlikely. And even if they intended to stick with it, the process is a burn out and often leaves a bad taste. So people often move on not too much later, even when they did not intend to.

Tom Mulcair is no different than any other politician with enough ambition and drive to be doing what they are. So, if he doesnt get it, it is likely to be the beginning of the end for him and the NDP.

But the question was, would he go back to the Liberals?

No.

I expect that would be it for electoral politics... unless he wanted to tackle the thankless task of Montreal municipal politics.

That goes for most people in that posititon. All the more true, since Mulcair has already shown he will leave what is not working for him politicaly- regardless of not having some ready made niche to hop to.

Fri, 2011-09-30 18:59

Malcolm

Malcolm's picture

Unionists's analysis (which has the advantage of coming from someone who lives and works in Quebec) strikes me as essentially sound. Quebec voters are not so shallow and parochial as some babblers assume. (Of course, those same babblers seem to assume that every alienated westerner is a mouth-breathing homophobe, so their analysis isn't worth the bandwidth it's transmitted over.)

Whoever wins the leadership will do so because they have presented a compelling narative and because they have demonstrated some strength in every region of the country - especially Quebec. There is not a New Democrat anywhere who wants to put the breakthrough at risk.

Frankly, whoever wins will have earned it.

Personally, I'm leaning to a current third tier candidate who I believe will be able to present a compellng narrative, who launched her political career by standing up for LGBTQTS, and who has built strong relationships with and will garner "surprise" endorsements from several new MPs from Quebec and elsewhere. Campaigns matter, and I believe this candidate can win and can help to move the party forward, but even if unsuccessful (by the world's standards) will bring something to the debate.

Fri, 2011-09-30 19:02

KenS

Lefties have a bad habit of equating having been a Liberal with questionable intergrity.

Integrity or the lack of it is an individual thing that cuts across party and ideological lines. Whatever you think about Mulcair's demonstrated politics... I think he has much more than adequately demonstrated he is no careerist or opportunist.

Fri, 2011-09-30 19:20

Sean in Ottawa

Why would Mulcair quit? If he does not win he at least could become a cabinet minister.

I also beleive he does want the NDP to win and cares about the party and its principles. He does not come across to me like someone who would take off if he did not get the big prize.

Fri, 2011-09-30 19:43

NorthReport

Well, probably at least understandable for some, as they reflect on the behaviour of former NDP premiers Rae and Dosanjh.

I would think being a federal cabinet minister with a major portfolio could be considered as a significant and ample reward.

KenS wrote:

Lefties have a bad habit of equating having been a Liberal with questionable intergrity.

Integrity or the lack of it is an individual thing that cuts across party and ideological lines. Whatever you think about Mulcair's demonstrated politics... I think he has much more than adequately demonstrated he is no careerist or opportunist.

Fri, 2011-09-30 19:52

knownothing knownothing's picture

knownothing's picture

It seems to me that there would be no other option for a federalist in Quebec except the Liberal party no matter what Mulcair's economic ideology is... so he could be a real lefty for all we know

Fri, 2011-09-30 20:12

Aristotleded24

The challenge with Quebec is that the Bloc Quebecois has isolated the province from the rest of the country. I remember living in Quebec in 2004 and being asked by one of my roommates if I had a girlfriend in my country, so that shows you how prevelant that sense of alienation is. The NDP breakthrough changed that. I think Layton earned tremendous respect for being the first federalist leader in 23 years to win Quebec, winning more seats than even the Bloc did at its height. The change in the dynamic means that instead of a Bloc MP voting on an issue based on whether or not it helps Quebec specifically, now that same constituency could have an NDP Cabinet Minister making decisions for the country as a whole, so we must open up a dialogue with Quebec. I think a key thing to open up this dialogue would be for Quebec MPs to get themselves into English Canadian media, while at the same time rising NDP stars in English Canada, people like Nathan Cullen, Peter Julian, Linda Duncan, Nikki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Yvon Godin, Megan Leslie (just to name a few) would be well advised to get themselves into Quebec media.

And as has been pointed out, given how several prominent politicians have lived in several places, and a larger proportion of the population (particularly those under 35) has lived all over the place, it becomes harder to define who really is "from Quebec."

Fri, 2011-09-30 22:30

Policywonk

KenS wrote:

I dont think its an issue, but since it was asked, it will float around....

Front runners for leadership who do not get it, know frequently that there will not be another crack. Or very unlikely. And even if they intended to stick with it, the process is a burn out and often leaves a bad taste. So people often move on not too much later, even when they did not intend to.

Tom Mulcair is no different than any other politician with enough ambition and drive to be doing what they are. So, if he doesnt get it, it is likely to be the beginning of the end for him and the NDP.

But the question was, would he go back to the Liberals?

No.

I expect that would be it for electoral politics... unless he wanted to tackle the thankless task of Montreal municipal politics.

That goes for most people in that posititon. All the more true, since Mulcair has already shown he will leave what is not working for him politicaly- regardless of not having some ready made niche to hop to.

Not sure whether you mean a front runner or the front runner. Certainly true with respect to Claude Wagner in 1976 (he was appointed to the Senate but died in 1979), but not Michael Ignatieff (although maybe he wishes it were so). Mulroney finished second on the first ballot in 1976 (and in 1983, but he won then). Similarly Rae finished 2nd on the first ballot in 2006. Chretien lost in 1984 on the second ballot, but won easily in 1990. Paul Martin got a second chance too. It's not clear that Mulcair is the front runner in any case.

Fri, 2011-09-30 22:43

KenS

Meant a front runner.

I'm not saying it will be a grind / burn out for Mulcair. Or that he will want to leave if he does not get the prize. The point was that it happening is very common, and that you dont read Mulcair right if you think that should that happen to him, he would go to the Liberals.

But for what its worth, I dont think there will be a second crack for Mulcair. And/or that he would want one.

Fri, 2011-09-30 23:26

Wilf Day

Unionist wrote:

Gaian wrote:
It would be very instructive if we could hear from inside Quebec. Lots of yacking from elsewhere. Any chance, Rabble?

I'm inside Québec. Here's my opinion (in brief).

Quebeckers voted for the NDP because: 1. They viscerally wanted to defeat Harper and the values he represents. 2. They gave up hope that voting for the Bloc could accomplish that. 3. They became enamoured of Jack Layton - his personal courage, his humour and humility, his lack of fear about coalitions etc.

#1 failed, #2 is still true, #3 ended tragically.

So, if I were an NDP booster, I'd concentrate on #1. Is there a future leader that can actually project that aim, that can say and do what is needed (building alliances, engaging in extra-parliamentary actions, etc.) to make that happen? If yes, pick her and carry on. Don't wait for another Jack - the law of averages is working against you. And be quick about it. Your honeymoon will soon come to an end.

Makes sense to me.

KenS wrote:

Tom Mulcair is no different than any other politician with enough ambition and drive to be doing what they are. So, if he doesnt get it, it is likely to be the beginning of the end for him and the NDP.

Umm, he was expecting to run again in 2015 under Jack Layton's leadership as his Quebec lieutenant, not as leader. Fate intervened. Would he refuse to run again in 2015 as Topp's Quebec lieutenant? Why?

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

(I also suspect there could be Mid-east politics in the background and a stop Mulcair bid but that does not mean he would leave the party if he lost).

How can anyone seriously suggest that Libby would motivate her choice for the next leader based on middle-east issues? She is proverbially well-grounded in grass-roots issues in Vancouver East and across the country. A little perspective, please.

Fri, 2011-09-30 23:59

Policywonk

Wilf Day wrote:

How can anyone seriously suggest that Libby would motivate her choice for the next leader based on middle-east issues? She is proverbially well-grounded in grass-roots issues in Vancouver East and across the country. A little perspective, please.

It's not the issue so much as how Mulcair reacted to Libby's position on the issue that is being referred to.

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