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The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility? Part 2
Tue, 2011-09-06 11:22
#1
The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility? Part 2
Thu, 2011-09-08 01:45
#2
The Analyst
Looks like the Tories have succeded in snatching defeat from the Jaws of Victory.
Thu, 2011-09-08 18:50
#3
Here are my maps with all the links fixed:
- Manitoba 2007 Election Results - Northern Manitoba - New (2011) Map
- Manitoba 2007 Election Results - Southwestern Manitoba - New (2011) Map
- Manitoba 2007 Election Results - Brandon - New (2011) Map
- Manitoba 2007 Election Results - Southeastern Manitoba - New (2011) Map
- Manitoba 2007 Election Results - Winnipeg - New (2011) Map
Thu, 2011-09-08 20:14
#4
What a lame answer by Hugh! "Everyone has opinions". The Tory 'war room' had to know the NDP was going to make this an issue - this is the best they could come up with?
Hard to believe that Hugh is backed by the same team that got Katz re-elected and moved Winnipeg South Centre and Elmwood-Transcona into the Conservative column.
Thu, 2011-09-08 20:57
#5
How's that? The election is still almost 4 weeks away - a lot can happen during the campaign.
I will say, however, that as I predicted in the previous thread, Gord Steeves' musings about privatizing MPI are already coming back to haunt the Tories.
PC Leader Hugh McFadyen has repeatedly said that he is not interested in privatizing public corporations.But videos circulating online show Gord Steeves, the Tories' star candidate in Seine River, talking about private-sector auto insurance.
"For me, this comes down to a very basic philosophical question: is auto insurance a service that government needs to provide, or could this service be provided by the private sector? The obvious answer to me is yes, it could," Steeves told Shaw TV in an interview earlier this year, before he became a PC candidate.
Steeves was not made available to comment on Wednesday, but McFadyen maintained that his party does not wish to privatize Manitoba's Crown corporations.
"I think we've made it clear: we're not coming in to privatize crown corporations," McFadyen told reporters.
"Everybody has opinions. That's not party policy."
But the New Democrats have been citing Steeves's comments to illustrate what they believe is the Progressive Conservatives' plan to privatize Manitoba Hydro and Manitoba Public Insurance.
"The opposition, and Hugh McFadyen's Conservatives, would like to raise electricity rates to market rates," Selinger said.
"One of his leading candidates has suggested privatizing auto insurance is an option that he thinks is a viable option."
What a lame answer by Hugh! "Everyone has opinions". The Tory 'war room' had to know the NDP was going to make this an issue - this is the best they could come up with?
Fri, 2011-09-09 18:14
#6
Well there are weeks left. Maybe Steeves said that as a trial balloon to see how it went. I do not drive a vehicle but I think MPI's rates are probably the second lowest in the country. Someone needs to do a flip-phone ambush on McFadyen/McFayden while wearing a suit and say "hey Hugh just between you and me, we will sell MPI won't we?"
Sun, 2011-09-18 09:42
#7
Does anyone have a transposition of the votes in the last provincial election applied to the new boundaries?
Wed, 2011-09-21 00:23
#8
If there is one thing this election has clearly shown, it's that the entire political class in this province is out of steam and needs renewal.
First, we have the governing NDP. Once a party has been in office for so long, the need for renewal begins to show, as a party that has been in office a long time tends to hunker down rather than reach out and be bold. Despite the fact that the majority feel the province is headed in the right direction overall, there is a sense that maybe it's time for a change. Plus the fact that the NDP has been interfering in local nomination races is not good, and gives off an air of entitlement that turns voters off. And trying to fear-monger that McFadyen will privatize everything he can get his hands on? That routine is getting really old.
Next we have the PCs. Their campaign slogan is "vision, change, progress," but what exactly that means, I don't know. Their campaign is very confused, on the one hand using the same right-wing talking points about crime that resonate only with their base, yet on the other hand trying to out-NDP the NDP on health spending. One minute they want to balance the budget at all costs, the next they plan to balance the budget 4 years later than what would happen under the economic action plan launched by the current government.
Then the Liberals. I give them marks for raising some social issues that remain unresolved, but the Liberal brand simply has no traction in this province. Dr. Gerrard, despite having been around for 12 years, has simply not caught on. He seems to think he can be all things to all people, despite the fact that sometimes you have to make decisions that will inherently leave some unhappy. They've raised a couple of issues like beat cops and rapid transit, unfortunately those issues are primarily decided by the city and I really doubt that they would twist the arms of the current civic administration that much anyways. The Liberals will be absolutely squeezed out in the polarized race between the top 2 parties. If the Liberals avoid being wiped out, it will be because community activist Paul Hesse wins the Fort Rouge race on his own merits, not as a result of any affection for the Liberal brand.
Then we have the Greens. They are running the most candidates they ever have. Unfortunately, their vote is not concentrated enough to make a huge impact in any part of the province, and they simply do not have the infrastructure needed to get their message out and inspire people. Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May came to Manitoba to try and energize things, but I don't know how people feel about a federal politician representing another province coming and telling Manitobans what they should or shouldn't do.
Sat, 2011-09-24 17:25
#9
I love to bash the NDP nearly as much as anyone but I do not actually recall them mentioning privitization as much as this current election. I was working 60 hours a week during the last election so I easily could have missed a lot. What I do recall (and please correct me) was that they really, really emphasized Gary Doer and his smile. I think even local candidate signs emphasized Gary Doer over the NDP.
...First, we have the governing NDP. Once a party has been in office for so long, the need for renewal begins to show, as a party that has been in office a long time tends to hunker down rather than reach out and be bold. Despite the fact that the majority feel the province is headed in the right direction overall, there is a sense that maybe it's time for a change. Plus the fact that the NDP has been interfering in local nomination races is not good, and gives off an air of entitlement that turns voters off. And trying to fear-monger that McFadyen will privatize everything he can get his hands on? That routine is getting really old.
Sat, 2011-09-24 21:22
#10
dacckon
I watched the debate, Greg held together well. He should have added some hst attacks onto all of his opponents. He missed alot of one-liner knockout opportunities.
Sat, 2011-09-24 22:04
#11
laine lowe
I watched the debate, Greg held together well. He should have added some hst attacks onto all of his opponents. He missed alot of one-liner knockout opportunities.
That's good to hear. I have a sinking feeling that it's going to be a slam-dunk victory for the Conservatives. Hugh McFayden is the only face you see on campaign posters. The party isn't even much bothered with the credentials of individual candidates. It's very reminiscent of how the Federal conservatives have been running their campaign. It's totally focused on voting for a leader and not your representative.
Sun, 2011-09-25 20:09
#12
Just curious why you feel it's going to be a 'slam-dunk victory' for the Tories. My brother lives in Winnipeg and he's a Tory supporter, and he still thinks the NDP is going to win.
Running leader-centred campaigns is nothing new. The Tories used to run as the 'Gary Filmon Team' and put the party name in microscopic print on everything. The last two elections it was "Gary Doer and Today's NDP."
That said, if the Tories are really putting the leader front and centre, that's stupid strategy on their part. Selinger may be dull, but people seem to think he's a safe pair of hands at least. Hugh comes across as a smirking frat boy lightweight. Last election, the Tories' numbers actually went *down* during the campaign - the more people saw of Hugh, the less they liked. I think he's a total liability for them (my brother thinks so too), but with a caucus full of has-beens and never-will-bes, I suppose they don't have much choice. If they are really putting all their chips down on the 'leadership' issue, that's a dangerous game they're playing.
Sun, 2011-09-25 22:11
#13
laine lowe
I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.
Sun, 2011-09-25 23:07
#14
Have there been any poll results released so far in the election campaign to see how the parties are doing at this point?
Mon, 2011-09-26 03:13
#15
Have there been any poll results released so far in the election campaign to see how the parties are doing at this point?
Last poll was in June
Mon, 2011-09-26 10:05
#16
New poll out in Manitoba. NDP leads PCs by 41-32 with Liberals at 5.
Mon, 2011-09-26 17:39
#17
And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.
A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm. If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.
Mon, 2011-09-26 20:16
#18
600? That is a really, really small sample size. I wonder if that relates to more and more people just hanging up on pollsters?
And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.
A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm. If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.
Mon, 2011-09-26 20:19
#19
What in particular leads to the impression that Jennifer Howard works hard for her constituents? Not a rhetorical question.
I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.
Mon, 2011-09-26 21:23
#20
laine lowe
What in particular leads to the impression that Jennifer Howard works hard for her constituents? Not a rhetorical question.
I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.
She certainly send more regular updates than Pat Martin or (in my new federal riding) Joyce Bateman. Plus her performance at the Leg has been very decent. And finally, she does not rely on robo-calls for seeking support.
Mon, 2011-09-26 21:24
#21
600? That is a really, really small sample size. I wonder if that relates to more and more people just hanging up on pollsters?
And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.
A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm. If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.
It might be a small sample size, but Manitoba has a small population, about 1.2M. If 1.2M is the population, and not all Manitobans are eligible voters, and a confidence level of 95% is desired with sample size of 600, then pollsters can be 95% certain of results with +/- 4% margin of error. As far as statistical sampling goes, randomness of opinions is more important than either sample or population size.
Mon, 2011-09-26 21:56
#22
Well, I guess I spoke too soon - the Environics poll for CP has the Tories with a slight lead, which I suspect is within the margin of error:
PC 45
NDP 42
Lib 10
Basically, it's a dead heat. There are no regional breakdowns but the sample size was much bigger than the Viewpoints poll - 1,000 vs. under 600. That said, this poll is not all bad news for Team Orange: the undecideds favour the NDP. Selinger beats McFadyen handily on the leadership/approval front. The Tory vote is generally less efficient than the NDP vote, so even a tie in the popular vote is likely to produce a narrow NDP majority (as happened in 1986).
Plus even the Free Press seems to be taking this poll with a grain of salt:
Unlike traditional telephone polling, in which respondents are randomly selected, the Environics survey was conducted online among 1,000 respondents, all of whom were chosen from a larger pool of people who were recruited and compensated for participating. Environics then adjusts the sample to reflect a broad spectrum of the population.The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine statistically how accurately the results reflect the opinions of the population at large.
Although Viewpoints is clearly connected to the NDP, they are a local firm which has done a ton of polling on Manitoba politics. I'd trust their local expertise more than a bunch of number-crunchers playing with computers in faraway Toronto.
The results of this poll are similar to the one that came out just before the 1999 election that had the NDP and the Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent with the Liberals a distant third. The NDP won 45 percent and 32 seats on election day versus 40 percent and 24 seats for the Tories.
Looks like the Probe/Free Press poll may be the tie-breaker. Either way, it's going to be a close election. I am still standing by my prediction of 30 NDP, 27 PC, but the message for NDPers to take away from this is: Work like hell until next Tuesday!
Wed, 2011-09-28 00:58
#23
Selinger may be dull, but people seem to think he's a safe pair of hands at least. Hugh comes across as a smirking frat boy lightweight. Last election, the Tories' numbers actually went *down* during the campaign - the more people saw of Hugh, the less they liked. I think he's a total liability for them (my brother thinks so too), but with a caucus full of has-beens and never-will-bes, I suppose they don't have much choice. If they are really putting all their chips down on the 'leadership' issue, that's a dangerous game they're playing.
Leeann Rowat would be an effective leader and would make any government slip-ups stick, plus she would also eat into the female demographic that the NDP relies on, but I have doubts as to whether the power brokers within the party would allow that. Kind of like how they ended Denis Rocan's political career.
Wed, 2011-09-28 20:17
#24
Is there a history of such on-line polls being close to predicting anything? I think the Freep should have taken a kilo of salt given its nature. I have suspicions about both polls; I am rarely out and about but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.
Well, I guess I spoke too soon - the Environics poll for CP has the Tories with a slight lead, which I suspect is within the margin of error:
PC 45
NDP 42
Lib 10
Basically, it's a dead heat. There are no regional breakdowns but the sample size was much bigger than the Viewpoints poll - 1,000 vs. under 600. That said, this poll is not all bad news for Team Orange: the undecideds favour the NDP. Selinger beats McFadyen handily on the leadership/approval front. The Tory vote is generally less efficient than the NDP vote, so even a tie in the popular vote is likely to produce a narrow NDP majority (as happened in 1986).
Plus even the Free Press seems to be taking this poll with a grain of salt:
Unlike traditional telephone polling, in which respondents are randomly selected, the Environics survey was conducted online among 1,000 respondents, all of whom were chosen from a larger pool of people who were recruited and compensated for participating. Environics then adjusts the sample to reflect a broad spectrum of the population.
The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine statistically how accurately the results reflect the opinions of the population at large.
Although Viewpoints is clearly connected to the NDP, they are a local firm which has done a ton of polling on Manitoba politics. I'd trust their local expertise more than a bunch of number-crunchers playing with computers in faraway Toronto.
The results of this poll are similar to the one that came out just before the 1999 election that had the NDP and the Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent with the Liberals a distant third. The NDP won 45 percent and 32 seats on election day versus 40 percent and 24 seats for the Tories.
Looks like the Probe/Free Press poll may be the tie-breaker. Either way, it's going to be a close election. I am still standing by my prediction of 30 NDP, 27 PC, but the message for NDPers to take away from this is: Work like hell until next Tuesday!
Thu, 2011-09-29 00:34
#25
but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.
And voter fatigue, with the civic election last fall and the federal in spring.
Thu, 2011-09-29 07:31
#26
But I just read an article on the CBC web-site stating that advance voter turnout is much higher than in the previous provincial election.
Doesn't that usually mean a higher turnout on voting day?
Thu, 2011-09-29 11:12
#27
But I just read an article on the CBC web-site stating that advance voter turnout is much higher than in the previous provincial election.Doesn't that usually mean a higher turnout on voting day?
Not necessarily. It could mean (and the facts will probably bear this out) that those who wanted to vote will vote earlier instead of on election day without much change in overall numbers.
Thu, 2011-09-29 13:12
#28
I am rarely out and about but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.
I was in Brandon for part of the campaign, and when I was there, it seemed to me that there were about as many signs on private property as there were on public. Heck, it seems there were even more signs on private property during the 2006 municipal elections than what I saw recently, and municipal turn-out is generally lower than provincial.
Fri, 2011-09-30 08:08
#29
Looks like the NDP will win. The final Probe poll says the NDP leads 46-43 with a mammoth lead in Winnipeg!
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/ndp-clingin...
Fri, 2011-09-30 10:47
#30
Looks like the NDP will win. The final Probe poll says the NDP leads 46-43 with a mammoth lead in Winnipeg! http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/ndp-clingin...Assuming the poll results are a) accurate and b) hold. Last sprint to the ballot box.
Fri, 2011-09-30 18:55
#31
Shades of 1999, when the last poll had the NDP and Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent. Final numbers were 45 NDP to 40 PC, which was good for 32 seats for the NDP. The Probe poll is closer to the Environics poll, but Environics was in the field after Viewpoints, so it's possible that the NDP slipped in the days following the Viewpoints poll and then regained a bit of ground recently. When the polling is this close, either party could realistically get anything from 40 to 50 percent of the vote on election day, depending on turnout, margins of error, etc.
The bad news for the Tories is that they need to beat the NDP by a good 6 or 7 points in the popular vote to win a majority. They are also not gaining ground where they need to - ie, Winnipeg. I fully expect them to gain a few seats outside the Perimeter - they will win the new La Verendrye for sure, and have a few other serious possibilities in Brandon East, Dauphin and Dawson Trail, maybe even Gimli, Interlake and Swan River. I don't see a pickup of more than 3 seats at the absolute most. More likely is that the Tories will just run up even bigger majorities in the 'yellow dog' rural seats they already hold.
Probe and the Free Press did their usual darndest to downplay the negatives for the Tories, but there's no sugar-coating the Winnipeg numbers - the Tories are nearly 20 points back and are trailing everywhere except the southwest, where they have a statistically insignificant lead. (Although I would imagine these 'regional breakdown' sample sizes are pretty small, so we should probably not read *too* much into them.)
The northwest Winnipeg numbers are interesting. Jim Rondeau won Assiniboia by huge margins in 2003 and 2007, so even with 'star candidate' Susan Auch running for the Tories, that's a tough hill for them to climb. I suspect the Tories are more of a threat in Kirkfield Park (a seat the NDP never won before 2007) and in St. James, where there is no incumbent. Those southeast numbers have to be discouraging for the Tories, because they've put such a big push into seats like Seine River, Riel and Southdale. With those kinds of numbers, it's hard to see them winning those seats. Similarly, there's no indication that the Tories are going to replicate their success at the federal level in northeast Winnipeg, which probably speaks more about the weakness of Jim Maloway as a federal candidate than the NDP 'brand'. At this point, I think the Tories have got St. Norbert in the bag as a pickup, and I suspect they will likely regain Kirkfield Park as well as snatching River Heights from Gerrard. But they've got uphill battles to defeat the NDP just about everywhere else in the city.
In the end result, I think we're going to see a result very similar to 1999, but slightly closer. I still believe the NDP will win 30-31 seats, the Tories 26-27, and the Liberals will be lucky to re-elect Gerrard.
Fri, 2011-09-30 19:39
#32
The bad news for the Tories is that they need to beat the NDP by a good 6 or 7 points in the popular vote to win a majority. They are also not gaining ground where they need to - ie, Winnipeg. I fully expect them to gain a few seats outside the Perimeter - they will win the new La Verendrye for sure, and have a few other serious possibilities in Brandon East, Dauphin and Dawson Trail, maybe even Gimli, Interlake and Swan River. I don't see a pickup of more than 3 seats at the absolute most. More likely is that the Tories will just run up even bigger majorities in the 'yellow dog' rural seats they already hold.
Despite Navakshoff's gaffe on the flood, the person who won the PC nomination earlier was punted and is running as an independent, so the NDP should hold that one. Brandon East is looking like the NDP will squeak by, and there is a good shot at the NDP re-taking Brandon-West (which, to your point about how well the Tories need to do in Winnipeg, makes it that much harder for them). Portage and Lac du Bonnet would also definitely be in play if we were at a different point in the political cycle.
In the end result, I think we're going to see a result very similar to 1999, but slightly closer. I still believe the NDP will win 30-31 seats, the Tories 26-27, and the Liberals will be lucky to re-elect Gerrard.
The Liberals may well take Fort Rouge, but if they do it will be entirely due to the work that Paul Hesse has done and has nothing to do with the Liberal brand itself.
If these results hold, the main take-away is that Sellinger would not have won, McFadyen would have lost. People are tired of the NDP after 12 years, but feel it better to "stick with the devil they know," especially since Manitoba has not been as hard hit by the recession as other areas, and the fact that McFadyen has not done well. Additionally, no third party has emerged to shake up the status quo, and I suspect that the Greens could very well overtake the Liberals as Manitoba's third party. This is reflected in the fact that people's impressions of all the political parties has worsened over the course of the campaign.
Looking ahead, I expect the NDP to lose in 2015. 16 years is a long time, and this is not Alberta. Additionally, Manitoba is in for a tough time, considering that more economic fall-out is around the corner and the bill for this year's flood has yet to come. I also have a strong suspicion that Harper will cut severely cut transfer payments in the coming years, and I expect that Manitoba especially will be targeted in that regard. We'll probably see something similar to what happened in Saskatchewan, in that I expect support for the Manitoba NDP to collapse below the Tories in the next year and to stay there.
I can only hope in this climate that the NDP manages to defeat Sam Katz municipally in 2014 and can also send the majority of Manitoba's Conservative MPs packing in 2015.
Fri, 2011-09-30 19:49
#33
Just saw the Brandon Sun headline for Friday September 30, 2011. In big bold letters, it reads:
"NDP 4-PEAT?"
Sat, 2011-10-01 00:00
#34
Good point about Brandon West. The Tories are also defending a very slim majority of 50 votes in River East, so that's not in the bag for them either.
I have usually been pretty impressed with Paul Hesse as a candidate (regardless of party affiliation) and as a spokesman/activist for urban issues. I would have liked to have seen him run for City Council, rather than running against one of the NDP's more progressive/left-leaning ministers in Jen Howard. I think he will do well, and against a weaker candidate I think he would very likely win, but everyone thought he had a real shot in Fort Rouge last time when it was an open seat, and Jen Howard still won fairly comfortably. This time he's running against an incumbent cabinet minister and the Liberals are polling in single digits. We might be surprised on election night, but right now I just don't see it.
To make things worse for the Liberals, John Harvard and Anita Neville have both issued a statement endorsing Theresa Oswald over Gord Steeves in Seine River. Harvard also issued a statement endorsing Sharon Blady in Kirkfield Park. Both have urged Liberals to vote 'strategically' for the NDP in those ridings to ensure the Tories don't win. What's left of the federal party in Manitoba is basically abandoning the provincial wing.
I'm starting to think it might almost be better for the Liberals if Gerrard loses his seat - he would have to resign as leader more or less immediately and that would open the door to some fresh blood like Hesse taking the reins. As it stands, the Liberals are facing total irrelevance - they have slid all the way down to Doug Lauchlan territory (and if you get that reference, you know way too much about Manitoba politics!)
Sat, 2011-10-01 00:31
#35
I have usually been pretty impressed with Paul Hesse as a candidate (regardless of party affiliation) and as a spokesman/activist for urban issues. I would have liked to have seen him run for City Council, rather than running against one of the NDP's more progressive/left-leaning ministers in Jen Howard. I think he will do well, and against a weaker candidate I think he would very likely win, but everyone thought he had a real shot in Fort Rouge last time when it was an open seat, and Jen Howard still won fairly comfortably. This time he's running against an incumbent cabinet minister and the Liberals are polling in single digits. We might be surprised on election night, but right now I just don't see it.
Hesse has had more time to make himself known in his community. Having said that, I think this is more or less correct. While the Liberals have raised pertinent issues like cuts in community policing and rapid transit, most people who follow those issues closely will place the blame on Sam Katz rather than the province. The province can support municipal initiatives and provide incentives, but ultimately cannot force the City of Winnipeg to do anything. As for Hesse, it is too bad that his party affiliation is not helping him, and I agree that with the issues he has raised that civic politics would be a much better fit. He was actually going to run in the civic by-election to replace Brenda Leipsic, but stepped aside for John Orlikow.
I'm starting to think it might almost be better for the Liberals if Gerrard loses his seat - he would have to resign as leader more or less immediately and that would open the door to some fresh blood like Hesse taking the reins.
If you look at the polling, the Greens are actually statistically tied with the Liberals, and the Greens aren't even running a full slate. I strongly suspect that the Greens will emerge from this election as Manitoba's new third party, given how much trouble the Liberal brand is in.
As it stands, the Liberals are facing total irrelevance - they have slid all the way down to Doug Lauchlan territory (and if you get that reference, you know way too much about Manitoba politics!)
Is there such a thing as knowing too much about Manitoba politics? :p
He was the Liberal leader in the 1981 general election. (Okay, I didn't actually know that, I had to check Wikipedia.)
Sun, 2011-10-02 00:18
#36
And now, crystal ball time. Here's how this prediction works: Any riding not named is predicted to stay with the same party, those ridings that are named are predicted to change from 2007. The changes include:
Brandon West: PC ---> NDP
Tyndall Park: Liberal ---> NDP
River East: PC ---> NDP
Kirkfield Park: NDP ---> PC
River Heights: Liberal ---> PC
Riel: NDP ---> PC
St. Norbert: NDP ---> PC
Showing a net swing from 2007 of:
NDP even
PC +2
Liberals -2
Leaving us with:
NDP 38
PC 21
Liberals eliminated
Any other predictions?
Sun, 2011-10-02 00:31
#37
He was the Liberal leader in the 1981 general election. (Okay, I didn't actually know that, I had to check Wikipedia.)
He was also a candidate in Calgary during the 1979 Federal Election. I remember his print ads: "Hello, I'm Doug Lauchlan."
Sun, 2011-10-02 01:40
#38
Aristotle, from the beginning of your post, you've predicted they won't change hands, but I'm interested as to who you're perceiving as holding the seats of Dawson Trail and La Verendrye. I seem to remember reading that Ron Lemieux is running in Dawson Trail, since his current riding of La Verendrye was drastically changed in the last redistribution, and he thought he'd be more easily re-elected there (Dawson Trail) than in La Verendrye. And, in all honesty, I don't see very many people seriously predicting that the NDP will hold La Verendrye (Dawson Trail is more contested, predictions-wise).
Sun, 2011-10-02 01:49
#39
The Tories will win La Verendrye easily. I expect Lemieux to hold on to Dawson Trail. The result is a wash for the parties because although the Tories nominally 'gain' La Verendrye, they lose a seat in southwest Manitoba (Minnedosa) because of redistribution.
I can't really disagree with any of Aristotle's predictions (except I think he meant NDP 36, PC 21) although I'm not so optimistic about the NDP taking River East and I think the overall result will be somewhat closer to the 1999 election. I think the window of opportunity in River East was there in 2007 when the Tories got an anemic 28 percent in Winnipeg, but with them bouncing back (such as it is) to around 35 percent, Mitchelson should scrape through again. I didn't think Riel was more vulnerable than say Southdale or Seine River, but it wouldn't shock me as Christine Melnick is by far the weakest cabinet minister.
Sun, 2011-10-02 14:29
#40
I'm not so optimistic about the NDP taking River East
I made that call because of the [url=http://biketothefuture.org/news/archives/2011/09/21/ndp-promises-safe-cr... of active transportation.[/url]
Sun, 2011-10-02 14:41
#41
I dunno. I admit I haven't lived there for a decade, but people in North Kildonan were pretty car-obsessed when I lived there. A few speed bumps were enough to end the career of Mark Lubosch, but I'd be surprised if a promise to create a safe crossing for a bike trail had the same kind of traction.
That being said, I am sure that Kurt Penner, who I have known for many years and who I know to be a very hard worker, has been diligently working the riding since his near-miss last time. And it may be that voters finally decide that Bonnie has passed her best-before date - she's been there for 25 years after all. Hard to say how the boundary tweaks will change things - the riding picked up some NDP-friendly territory along Donwood Drive from Rossmere, but there have also been a lot of McMansions going up in the new subdivisions along Headmaster and Bonner between Gateway and DeVries.
Sun, 2011-10-02 14:59
#42
Ghoris, are you familiar with the bike path built on what used to be the Marconi rail line? That path basically ends at the Perimeter. There are also bike path improvements in Birds Hill Provincial Park, including a bridge that crosses Highway 59 and is on the same side of Highway 59 as the Marconi trail. Certainly Kildonan doesn't fit the urban/cycling/hippie kind of area that you would expect in Wolseley or Fort Rouge, but biking in Birds Hill Provincial Park is a popular activity. For cyclists to currently try and cross the Perimeter is dangerous, and I could easily see this idea resonating in the area, especially for those who may wish to take children with them, even if they drive their SUVs all over the city for work during the week.
Sun, 2011-10-02 19:00
#43
I'm quite familiar with the bike path because it is within sight of my parents' house. It seems to be reasonably popular (at least for the four months of the year when it's pleasant to bike outside). The idea might get some traction, but I'll bet you dollars to donuts most of the people who bike in Birds' Hill Park are throwing the bikes in the back of the SUV and driving up there, and are going to continue to do so regardless of whether there's a crossing at the Perimeter or not. I'm not saying it's not a good idea or that it won't be a vote-getter, I just don't think it's likely to be a 'headline-grabbing' promise in most people's minds.
Mon, 2011-10-03 12:11
#44
well, apartment buildings can be very hard to enumerate
No they're not. Elections Manitoba buzzes the caretaker's number and announces him or herself. By law, they must let them in. They then go and knock on all the doors and ask the relevant questions. If nobody's home, they slip something under the door saying the occupant, "sorry I missed you, but you need to register to vote, here's how."
Do you know of anyone else who has had a similar experience? You should definitely say something about it.
Mon, 2011-10-03 12:20
#45
I will pursue this, Aristotleded. Any suggestions as to who I should contact who I haven't already? And isn't it bizarre the reaction I got from both NDP offices??
Mon, 2011-10-03 12:30
#46
How far up the Elections Manitoba food chain have you gone? Maybe you should find some other people this happened to and get rabble.ca to publish it?
Mon, 2011-10-03 12:45
#47
I spoke to the returning officer at EM. But I think a letter to the Free Press would be the first order of business. That is, if the NDP isn't going to give a shit.
I think part of the problem is that the NDP assumes they are going to win your area anyways, and are "picking their battles." If this happened in the south end of the city or in Brandon, I think you would get a much different response. I'm not saying that's right, but that's unfortunately how things go when the crunch comes.
Mon, 2011-10-03 12:53
#48
Yes, I think that's true. Plus it being the day before election. I was mainly commenting on the obtuseness of the NDP office personnel.
However, if it can be shown that ours was not the only building that was incompletely enumerated, isn't there a legal problem here?
Mon, 2011-10-03 16:29
#49
Thanks for the report, jas. I actually thought they did away with door-to-door enumeration some time ago, instead relying on the national register of electors which is updated through data gathered from Revenue Canada, HRDC, etc. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "voter registration cards" - are you talking about the card you get in the mail from Elections Manitoba showing you where and when to go vote? If so, I am surprised that they would not send out these voting cards. I recall our family being enumerated in Manitoba in the past and we always got polling cards in the mail to bring with us to vote, so we knew where to go and what polling subdivision we were in. (In my experience, the voting cards are intended to help the DROs as much as the voters.)
Hugh has been spending a lot of time lately in what he has identified as five 'targets' for the PCs in Winnipeg: Assiniboia, Radisson, Rossmere, St. James and St. Vital. I suspect these are 'second-tier' targets since I would have thought that seats like Dawson Trail, Kirkfield Park, Seine River, Southdale and St. Norbert were the most vulnerable. Even out of this group, St. Vital is quite safe for the NDP, and Radisson should be reasonably safe. Rossmere used to be a very competitive NDP-PC seat in the past but has not been close since 1999. Assiniboia will be a lot closer this time, I expect, but Jim Rondeau has a huge personal following in the riding and parachute candidate Susan Auch has a huge mountain of nearly 3,000 votes to overcome. St. James is competitive because it is an open seat, but I give the NDP a slight edge at the moment.
I have been labouring over my predictions for tomorrow. I was thinking it was going to be a real squeaker along the lines of 30 NDP to 27 Tories, but going seat-by-seat, I am having a hard time seeing how the Tories get more than 6 net gains. There is definitely a 'time for a change' sentiment out there, but I don't think the Tories have closed the deal to really motivate people to actually get out and vote against the NDP. From what I read in the media, a lot of people who have indicated they are going to vote Conservative have also said they are holding their noses, which means that many of them may simply stay home. Turnout will likely be low which historically has tended to favour incumbents. Plus I think we might see some additional last-minute leakage of what's left of the Liberal vote to the NDP, following the Harvard/Neville endorsement.
I am probably predicting with my heart rather than my head here, but my final numbers, for what they are worth, are NDP 32, PC 25, Liberal 0.
NDP: Assiniboia, Brandon East, Burrows, Concordia, Dawson Trail, Elmwood, Flin Flon, Fort Garry-Riverview, Fort Richmond, Fort Rouge, Gimli, Interlake, Kewatinook, Kildonan, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, Radisson, Riel, Rossmere, Seine River, Selkirk, St. Boniface, St. James, St. Johns, St. Vital, Swan River, The Maples, The Pas, Thompson, Transcona, Tyndall Park, Wolseley.
PC: Agassiz, Arthur-Virden, Brandon West, Charleswood, Dauphin, Emerson, Fort Whyte, Kirkfield Park, La Verendrye, Lac du Bonnet, Lakeside, Midland, Morden-Winkler, Morris, Portage La Prairie, Riding Mountain, Riel, River East, River Heights, Southdale, Spruce Woods, St. Norbert, St. Paul, Steinbach, Tuxedo.
Liberals: Goose egg!
Mon, 2011-10-03 16:38
#50
An Angus Reid poll out today almost exactly mirrors the Probe poll: NDP 46, PC 43, Liberals 8, Greens 3.
The NDP leads in Winnipeg with 51%, while the Tories dominate rurally with 53%.
The Tories' retention rate from 2007 is 88% versus the NDP's 78%. The Liberal and Green retention rates are dismal - the Liberals have held only half their 2007 vote and the Greens only a third. This suggests to me that the NDP has managed to squeeze some more votes out of what's left of the Liberal party to offset former NDP voters defecting to the Tories.
There is some troubling news for the NDP in that Tory support is firmer (82% of declared Tory voters will stick with them vs. 75% of NDP voters). Fully half of Liberal voters say they may yet change their minds before tomorrow. This could be a real wild card when it's this close.
Mon, 2011-10-03 18:17
#51
dp.