Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 4

It's weird how the Sun could endorse the Red Tory John Tory but then think the much more right-wing Hudak is too wishy-washy.

Stockholm wrote:

Now McGuinty is declaring that he refuses ANY form of cooperation with anyone. He WILL NOT TALK to any other parties - its just his way or the highway "No coalition, no accord, no agreement, no entente". My response is WHAT ARROGANCE!!!

In all fairness where are you getting that?

He says no coalition -- he does nto say no cooperation.

He is in an election saying he is running for a Liberal government only. That is exactly what we cheer the NDP for saying. It is a hypothetical question with an answer in between. Most parties avoid the question.

So all we have is that McGuinty is not talking to anyone now and will not entertain a coalition or Accord later.

Suits me fine-- I hope the NDP think the same.

Let the one that becomes government govern on a case by case basis seeking support for each individual thing.

I do not want the NDP to enter a coalition with the Liberals either- I want them to allow them to govern based on constant negotiation to get the support of the House for each bit of legislation. There is no way we should trust the Liberals for more and no reason for the Liberals to presume that we could.

For that reason I won't attack McGuinty for understanding that there will be no blank cheques from the NDP, no trust and no extension of his power beyond the number of MPs he has. If he cannot get anything passed beyond that he better start negotiating on each thing.

And if the NDP have more MPs then that is a different case. Then we would want to form a government and seek approval for our legislation.

In that case then it would be fine for the parties to have an open budget process where in the end they would have to look at each other and see who can get a first budget passed-- and then let them try to repeat their consensus building.

I think McGuinty is perfectly safe saying "no coalition, no accord". He knows the NDP will be loathe to prop up a Tory minority government and the Tories will be loathe to give the kind of concessions that would be required for the NDP's support. All McGuinty has to do is do what Liberals do best: play both ends against the middle. On any one issue, he only needs to secure the support of one of the opposition parties, so that means he can either throw a right-wing bone to the Tories or a left-wing bone to the NDP as it suits him.

Its also very funny to hear McGoofball talk about the need for "stability" but then flatly rule out anything that might give us stability in the years ahead - a medium term accord to keep a minority government going for a fixed period. I guess McGuinty thinks daily games of Russian roulette are "stability"!

Yes, they feel that they are entitled to their phony majorities, and that we voters have some sort of unwritten obligation to hand absolute power to them no strings attached. Having to negotiate with democratically elected representives of other parties and the democratic process in general are strange ideas for the two old line parties. 

A major reason for the NDP rise is the vanishing Green vote, down from 8% last elction to 1.2% in the latest poll.

It looks like "The Globe & Mail" has endorsed Dalton McGuinty.

Is this another blow to Hudak?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/dalton-mcguintys...

Is Brampton the sort of place that would respond favorably to such tactics?  It was the location of Davis' old riding, but the PC's of his era weren't THAT obsessed with sexuality, IIRC.

Stockholm wrote:

In the meantime - it is GOLD for the NDP to have cry-baby McGuinty having a temper tantrum in the sandbox and saying "No coalition, no accord, no agreement, no entente" of any kind.

Well, that's exactly the strategy that led Michael Ignatieff to his landslide majority in May...right?

howeird beale wrote:

What exactly has May done the last few months?

I saw her getting *very* chummy with Bob Rae at the EGALE gala evening, if that helps.

Doug wrote:

Brampton PC candidates thought they'd help themselves out with a homophobic and transphobic flyer.

 

That might not go down so well elsewhere.

If the account is correct, this is very ugly politics. 

Howard wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

howeird beale wrote:

What exactly has May done the last few months?

I saw her getting *very* chummy with Bob Rae at the EGALE gala evening, if that helps.

She's been busy campaigning against the extreme dangers of wifi, by blackberry wifi, on her twitter account.

She also voted against bombing Libya.

I'm not an EMay fan but a) I don't see the need to bash her in unrelated threads and b) I don't mind giving her credit for things she's done right.  If your asking what she's done then people are going to tell you, and it's not really on topic for the thread.

Here is the CBC article:

The provincial NDP candidate for Ottawa-Centre has Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu in his corner days before voters take to the polls.

Tutu, a renowned South African activist and a retired Anglican bishop, won the Nobel prize in 1984 for his fight against legal racial segregation, or apartheid, in his home country.

In a release from NDP candidate Anil Naidoo's camp Monday, Tutu endorses the South African-born candidate.

"Anil Naidoo has been an advocate for the human right to water, the rights of nature and progressive environmental causes," Tutu wrote from his home in South Africa, according to the release.

"I share these values and support Mr. Naidoo so that he can continue this important work as an elected representative."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/10/03/ottawa-n...

If Hudak doesn't get a minority, or actually loses seats, he's done. Expect a change of PC leadership within a year. He had his best possible shot, and he blew it.

A disappointing poll from EKOS. But then again, Frank Graves was completely wrong in his polling leading up to May 2 vote for the federal election:

FRANK GRAVES:
No sign of Ontario shifting to Tories

Posted on Mon, Oct 3, 2011, 5:05 am by Frank Graves

Direction of province (Ontario):

• 59% right direction
• 41% wrong direction

Direction of provincial government (Ontario):

• 53% right direction
• 47% wrong direction

Impact of majority Conservative federal government on provincial vote intention:

• 42% less likely to vote Ontario PC
• 34% neither more or less likely
• 16% more likely to vote Ontario PC
• 8% DK/NR

Emotions towards McGuinty government:

• 27% Discouraged
• 26% Angry
• 24% Hopeful
• 11% Happy
• 11% DK/NR

Please note that the methodology is provided at the end of this document.

In our most recent roll up of roughly 1,200 eligible voters in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty's Liberal Party is opening up a stable and widening lead over rivals PC leader Tim Hudak and Andrea Horwath of the NDP. While the patterns that we have seen over the last week show that the debate had no discernable impact on the fortunes of the three parties, the Ontario Liberals appear to be moving ahead slightly while the NDP appears to be wobbling slightly in the home stretch. Progressive Conservative support remains firm, but simply not sufficient at this point to wrest power from McGuinty's Liberals.

Although the Liberal lead is highly statistically significant and appears to have widened, it is still unclear whether this will be a minority or majority government. The answer may very well lie in the issue of voter turnout which produced some major surprises in the May 2nd federal election. Stephen Harper's Conservative Party found a majority victory on the strength of a major turnout advantage in Ontario in May. The obvious question is how turnout will work in this election. Indeed, if the provincial Tories were to achieve the same turnout advantage that their federal cousins enjoyed, they could easily be vaulted into government. A careful analysis of the underlying forces at work suggests this is unlikely and it is the Ontario Liberals who will be very close if not over the cusp of majority on Thursday.

The main reasons for these assertions are based on an analysis of the demographics and the underlying emotional orientations of the constituencies for the main contenders. The most important predictor of turnout in Ontario's last federal election was age. Youth voters had the most anaemic participation rates; gen X, (25-45), somewhat better; boomers much better; and seniors (over 65) the highest rates. In the last federal election, the Conservative Party of Canada virtually owned the senior vote in Ontario with nearly twice the support that the Liberals found there. The federal Conservatives also had a large lead with boomers, though they fared relatively poorly with younger voters (who mostly stayed home).

In this election, however, there is a profoundly different demographic. The Ontario Liberals have an insignificant lead with seniors (which may be growing) and they are also leading with the crucial boomer segment. The Progressive Conservatives do well with seniors and men but they also do well with lower-educated voters who are less likely to vote. The Ontario Liberal Party has a massive lead with the university educated who are very likely to vote and may be emotionally engaged by the Liberals as well. The NDP does well with all of the groups that are softer voters (younger and lower socioeconomic status groups) and there is some evidence that they are not emotionally engaged enough to actually show up in the same proportions that they are found in our surveys.

The other crucial driver of voter turnout (other than party machinery) is emotional engagement. Ontario Liberal supporters show a strong mixture of optimism (primary) and happiness (secondary). Both of these positive sentiments are linked to higher voter turnout. It is also the case that Liberal supporters are nearly unanimously pleased with the direction of the Ontario government. Turning to the Progressive Conservative supporters, they are also emotionally engaged with a response that is largely "angry" although there may be a growth in the less motivating "discouraged" category which is the dominant emotional response to the current government within NDP supporters.

It is also notable that in addition to being more discouraged than mad, NDP supporters are not overly upset with the direction of the provincial government. This may be why much of the enlarged NDP base from May 2nd has gone to the Ontario Liberal Party (about 25% of current Ontario Liberal supporters voted NDP in May). When we put all of this together, we expect that the actual turnout will see the NDP (and the very soft Green Party vote) decline on Thursday.

We have constructed a preliminary estimate of voter support among the most likely voters. It sees the following result:

There is one other clear finding that is worth commenting on. We see that Ontario voters are clearly leaning to the idea that it is best to hedge bets with the senior levels of government in Ottawa and Queen's Park. Nowhere is this lean to saying that the presence of strong majority Conservative government will make more voters lean to a non-Conservative choice than in Toronto. The ruins of the federal Liberal fortress are not applying to this election where Toronto voters say that the Conservative majority in Ottawa makes them 5 times more likely to vote non-Conservative than Conservative.

This suggests that the vision of Conservative "trifecta" has clearly dampened the Progressive Conservative Party's prospects throughout the Greater Toronto Area. It should be noted, however, that this aversion to multiple Conservative governments isn't rooted in some kind of "buyer's remorse" with regards to the current federal Conservative government; the Conservative Party of Canada still leads handily in Ontario.  As you can see, this result would put the Ontario Liberals in government again. In fact, if turnout is as predicted now, it would produce a slim but clear majority. Over the final few days of the campaign, we will track the key predictors of turnout but based on the stability and trajectory, it appears that what would have been an unthinkable prospect of a third majority is now once again in the grasp of the Ontario Liberals.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/10/03/frank-graves-no-sign-ontario-shifting-to-tories/

The EKOS poll has the Liberals much too high, PCs a little low, and the NDP much too low.

Sorry, but voting Liberal in Huron-Bruce will ENSURE a CONSERVATIVE win.  The only way to stop the Conservatives in this riding is voting for the surging NDP campaign of Grant Robertson.  Carol Mitchell is far back in third in this riding.  You can see it in the faces of the Liberal workers and Carol herself.  They look beaten already.

You have learned ALL the WRONG lessons from the federal campaign in your post.  It was the Liberals clinging to the fantasy of relevancy that ensured Conservatives won when if they had VOTED STRATEGICALLY FOR THE NDP, Harper would not have a majority right now.   Funny how that call for strategic voting never means vote NDP for you people.

So if you want to stop the Conservatives, especially in southwestern Ontario get out and vote NDP and take at least one non-voting friend with you.

Debater wrote:

It happens to be a fact that the increase in the NDP vote in Liberal-held ridings across the country (Eg. starting in Moncton on the East Coast, proceeding over to ridings like Willowdale in the GTA, and continuing out west to Winnipeg South Centre) caused all these Liberal ridings to go Conservative.  You can see it in the riding numbers.  Allan Gregg even mentioned in on election night on CBC.

The Conservatives didn't win because lefties divided their votes between the Liberals and the NDP, the Conservatives won because people voted Conservative. Period. Why Allen Greg is repeating these Liberal lies, I don't know, but [url=http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/05/mommy-they-split-my-vote/]Alice Funke[/url] has done a good job debunking them.

It's interesting you mention Winnipeg South Centre. I live in Winnipeg, and Anita was not a strong community representative. If she was, she may very well have held on. As for the GTA, the NDP came in 2nd in Bramalea-Gore-Malton out of nowhere, and if it wasn't for people screaming to "vote strategically," it's very likely that this seat would not be represented by a Conservative.

I don't live in Ontario but I can't believe you are having this strategic voting argument again. Vote NDP even if you think your candidate will lose. The higher the popular vote is this time the more serious we will be next time.

new article:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1064090--liberal...

Massive new Forum Research poll. 23,000 polled in 27 marginals:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1...

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (L, 41.2)

Lib 43.5 PC 33.6 NDP 16.2 Gr 3.6

Bramalea-Gore-Malton (L, 47.0)

NDP 35.4 Lib 31.7 PC 24.4 Gr 5.6

Brampton-Springdale (L, 50.7)

Lib 43.1 PC 38.4 NDP 13.8 Gr 3.6

Kitchener Centre (L, 45.9)

PC 39.3 Lib 37.3 NDP 18.2 Gr 3.5

Kitchener-Conestoga (L, 41.8)

PC 38.5 Lib 37.6 NDP 18.6 Gr 4.1

Kitchener-Waterloo (PC, 40.8)

PC 40.5 Lib 37.8 NDP 16.7 Gr 4.1

London North Centre (L, 47.2)

Lib 42.2 PC 27.8 NDP 23.7 Gr 4.4

London West (L, 52.4)

Lib 45.1 PC 27.4 NDP 23.1 Gr 3.2

Mississauga East-Cooksville (L, 58.9)

Lib 40.1 PC 38.6 NDP 14 Gr 5.3

Mississauga-Erindale (L, 47.9)

Lib 41.9 PC 36.8 NDP 16.9 Gr 3

Mississauga South (L, 46.7)

Lib 48.6 PC 34.6 NDP 11.8 Gr 3.5

Niagara Falls (L, 47.5)

PC 36.2 Lib 33.3 NDP 26.9 Gr 1.9

Oak Ridges-Markham (L, 48.2)

Lib 42.2 PC 39.8 NDP 12.1 Gr 4.5

Ottawa South (L, 50.1)

Lib 44.9 PC 37.6 NDP 12.6 Gr 3.8

Pickering-Scarborough East (L, 48.6)

Lib 47.7 PC 32.4 NDP 15.6 Gr 3.2

Richmond Hill (L, 47.8)

Lib 42.4 PC 37.4 NDP 13.5 Gr 5.9

St. Catharines (L, 47.2)

Lib 41.7 PC 34.3 NDP 17.7 Gr 5

Sudbury (L, 58.8)

NDP 38.7 Lib 38.1 PC 17.2 Gr 4

Thornhill (PC, 45.9)

PC 48.3 Lib 38.3 NDP 8.8 Gr 2.3

Welland (NDP, 53.9)

NDP 42.1 PC 33.4 Lib 19.3 Gr 3.7

Windsor-Tecumseh (L, 49.3)

Lib 40 NDP 30.5 PC 24.4 Gr 4.5

Windsor West (L, 50.2)

Lib 35.6 NDP 33.7 PC 24.8 Gr 3.6

York Centre (L, 48.7)

Lib 40.8 PC 38.3 NDP 15 Gr 3.6

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (L, 41.2)

Lib 43.5 PC 33.6 NDP 16.2 Gr 3.6

Bramalea-Gore-Malton (L, 47.0)

NDP 35.4 Lib 31.7 PC 24.4 Gr 5.6

Brampton-Springdale (L, 50.7)

Lib 43.1 PC 38.4 NDP 13.8 Gr 3.6

Kitchener Centre (L, 45.9)

PC 39.3 Lib 37.3 NDP 18.2 Gr 3.5

Kitchener-Conestoga (L, 41.8)

PC 38.5 Lib 37.6 NDP 18.6 Gr 4.1

Kitchener-Waterloo (PC, 40.8)

PC 40.5 Lib 37.8 NDP 16.7 Gr 4.1

London North Centre (L, 47.2)

Lib 42.2 PC 27.8 NDP 23.7 Gr 4.4

London West (L, 52.4)

Lib 45.1 PC 27.4 NDP 23.1 Gr 3.2

Mississauga East-Cooksville (L, 58.9)

Lib 40.1 PC 38.6 NDP 14 Gr 5.3

Mississauga-Erindale (L, 47.9)

Lib 41.9 PC 36.8 NDP 16.9 Gr 3

Mississauga South (L, 46.7)

Lib 48.6 PC 34.6 NDP 11.8 Gr 3.5

Niagara Falls (L, 47.5)

PC 36.2 Lib 33.3 NDP 26.9 Gr 1.9

Oak Ridges-Markham (L, 48.2)

Lib 42.2 PC 39.8 NDP 12.1 Gr 4.5

Ottawa South (L, 50.1)

Lib 44.9 PC 37.6 NDP 12.6 Gr 3.8

Pickering-Scarborough East (L, 48.6)

Lib 47.7 PC 32.4 NDP 15.6 Gr 3.2

Richmond Hill (L, 47.8)

Lib 42.4 PC 37.4 NDP 13.5 Gr 5.9

St. Catharines (L, 47.2)

Lib 41.7 PC 34.3 NDP 17.7 Gr 5

Sudbury (L, 58.8)

NDP 38.7 Lib 38.1 PC 17.2 Gr 4

Thornhill (PC, 45.9)

PC 48.3 Lib 38.3 NDP 8.8 Gr 2.3

Welland (NDP, 53.9)

NDP 42.1 PC 33.4 Lib 19.3 Gr 3.7

Windsor-Tecumseh (L, 49.3)

Lib 40 NDP 30.5 PC 24.4 Gr 4.5

Windsor West (L, 50.2)

Lib 35.6 NDP 33.7 PC 24.8 Gr 3.6

York Centre (L, 48.7)

Lib 40.8 PC 38.3 NDP 15 Gr 3.6

Doug wrote:

The Globe and Mail seems to be having a hissy fit over the NDP possibly having the balance of power.

Loved this comment:

"G&M brown nosers of the financial and power elite are pressing the Panic Button.

Pathetic!"

knownothing wrote:

 

new article:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1064090--liberal...

"In spite of their fundamental ideological differences, the province's Tories have since proved better political allies with the NDP than have the Liberals."

Dan Rath was co-author of Not Without Cause: David Peterson's Fall from Grace, which analyzed the 1990 Ontario provincial election.

Typical Liberal b.s.

klexo wrote:

In case you were thinking about voting for the Libs, from the Globe article: "This is not the moderate NDP of the Manitoba or Nova Scotia governments, or even the relative prudence shown in the later years of Bob Rae's premiership. It is a radical platform that would move Ontario toward a command economy."

Good. Hopefully Dexter and Selinger will move in this direction as well.