This puts Horwath in a healthy position to take credit sometimes for putting pressure on the Liberals, but never have to take responsibility for anything that goes wrong.
Ontario 2011 election results
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:31
#152
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:34
#153
Disappointing result in Windsor West. The scuttlebutt seems to be that the NDP did not nominate a particularly strong candidate.
CBC said Ken Lewenza (CAW) was up on stage with McGuinty during the campaign, thanking him for his support.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:38
#154
Looks like it is all over. Liberals denied a majority by 1 seat.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:39
#155
Undeclareds according to CBC:
Kitchener Centre (Liberals leading)
Niagara Falls (Liberals leading)
Northumberland-Quinte West (Tories leading)
Perth-Wellington (Tories leading)
York South-Weston (Liberals leading) - not sure why this one is not declared, Ferreira can't possibly close the gap with only 5 polls left.
ETA: Globe is calling Perth-Wellington for the Tories and York-South Weston for the Liberals.
The electoral landscape looks very similar to the 2008 federal election - Liberals holding steady in Fortress GTA, the Tories dominating rural southern Ontario, and the NDP doing well in the North, Hammertown and downtown Toronto.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:43
#156
There is a poll coming out tomorrow in the Yukon. Will it show the NDP ahead? Last poll had the NDP 5% behind first place, Liberals distant third.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:43
#157
CBC declares Liberal minority government.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:44
#158
Liberal lead in Kitchener Centre is a 200 vote gap but only 4 polls left. Liberal lead in Niagara has a 500 vote gap but 40 polls or so remaining. No updates in Northumberalnd-QW where the PC lead is 600 but 10 polls left and no updates in the last 15 minutes. As long as John Milloy holds in the first riding, it's all riding on Kim Craitor and Lou Rinaldi. If the first can survive and teh second come back from behind (10 polls left means it isn't implausible) then the Liberals have their majority.
So many close races. Majority/minority could be decided on the recounts. Or a last minute change-of-heart floor-crossing.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:46
#159
PCs elected in Northumberland. The best the Liberals will do is 53 seats, and could finish with 51 if Niagara Falls and Kitchener Centre flip.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:47
#160
Disappointing result in Windsor West. The scuttlebutt seems to be that the NDP did not nominate a particularly strong candidate.
CBC said Ken Lewenza (CAW) was up on stage with McGuinty during the campaign, thanking him for his support.
Christ...is the CAW EVER going to stop punishing the ONDP for the Rae years? Rae was turfed out fifteen years ago and now HE's a Liberal. What's it going to take to get the CAW to finally let this go?
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:49
#161
Any update on polls left in Davenport? LAst I saw there were 20 or 30
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:51
#162
Agree. CAW needs to know that the NDP are their only true friends.
Congrads Jagmeet! Wished he had won Federally, though.
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:51
#163
At least McGuinty won't be able to say the last government lied about the finances!!!
Thu, 2011-10-06 23:56
#164
Too many journalists are showing their ignorance tonight.
A bunch are talking about refusing the speaker role because if the Liberals give speaker to the opposition then that would be a majority.
Of course that is not true-- since there is an odd number of seats that would create a deadlock with the speaker voting. So it makes no difference. no excuse to get this basic math wrong.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:02
#165
Both Milloy (Lib) and Milligan (PC) are pulling ahead in Kitchener and Northmb. so yep it looks like 53 barring flips in Davenport and Niagara Falls (both 30 odd polls to go) and recounts and switcheroos. With only one seat necessary there's gotta be a PCer (less likely any of the New Dems) willing to cross the floor. Wouldn't rule it out.
Exciting photo finish.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:08
#166
Yes, except the Speaker must always vote in favour of the 'status quo', which in a confidence situation means voting with the government.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:10
#167
Has Hudak said whether he's staying on as opposition leader yet?
He can probably blame whoever put out the transgender-bashing leaflet for the Tory defeat, given the margin.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:12
#168
Milloy has got about a 300-vote lead in Kitchener Centre with only 1 poll to report, so it appears he's hung on.
Globe not calling Davenport for the NDP yet - 700-vote lead but still almost 30 polls left to report.
Craitor has a 650-vote lead in Niagara Falls with almost 40 polls left to report.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:12
#169
Am I the only one who finds McGuinty opening his speech by talking about the Liberals moving forward without mentioning that he heard the message that voters sent him a trifle arrogant? What's this crap about "Ontarians voting to move forward the Ontario way?" Earth to Dalton: out of what looks like an even declining share of Ontarians who voted, they unequivocally rebuked your administration and told you that the status quo is not good enough.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:16
#170
I think this is a reasonable Liberal win considering they didn't go down in flames like their federal counterparts, and they were a few hundred votes short of a majority after two full terms and held on to beachhead ridings in Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Windsor and Toronto and London. The PCs and NDP didn't make any staggering inroads in places where they weren't favoured to win, Jagmeet Singh aside.
Yes, except the Speaker must always vote in favour of the 'status quo', which in a confidence situation means voting with the government.
If that's the case, then an NDP or PC speaker results in a Liberal majority on confidence items?
Think it's likely that no-one puts themselves forward for speaker, from any party?
Perhaps that is why, in the British House of Commons, they still have the bizarre tradition of subjecting the M.P.'s nominated for the speakership to a kind of ceremonial kidnapping...holding them hostage until after the vote has been taken.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:19
#171
Aristotle-- his digs at Hudak over the foreigner thing not that friendly either.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:20
#172
Quite a devastating nite for the Liberals, losing their majority and 18 seats, and this will be McGuinty's last kick at the can. Now that Canadians are showing they are tiring of the Liberals, maybe some Liberals may see the writing on the wall and jump ship before too long. You know, the folks that get passed over for the cabinets posts, etc.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:24
#173
If that's the case, then an NDP or PC speaker results in a Liberal majority on confidence items?
Think it's likely that no-one puts themselves forward for speaker, from any party?
I would be very, very surprised if either the NDP or PCs allowed one of their members to stand for speaker. Peter Milliken was able to stand (and be elected) as Speaker in the 2006 and 2008 minority Parliaments because there was no chance he would have to break a tie on a confidence vote - even with an Opposition MP in the Speaker's chair, the Opposition parties still had plenty of votes to ensure the Government's defeat. You can be sure that if Harper was one seat short of a majority that nobody from the Opposition parties would have run for Speaker - they would have forced them to elect one of their own MPs.
I didn't know the U.K. had a tradition of ceremonially 'kidnapping' MPs who are candidates for Speaker. I only thought that they ceremonially held one MP 'hostage' at Buckingham Palace during the Throne Speech, in order to ensure the safe return of the Sovereign. I do know there is a tradition of "dragging" the Speaker to the chair (which is also followed in Canada) that dates back to the days when the Speaker literally was the spokesman for Parliament to the Sovereign. If the Sovereign didn't like what Parliament had to say, the Speaker might find his head detached from his neck. Hence the tradition of the person elected as Speaker pretending to resist being dragged to the chair.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:26
#174
Does anyone know the popular vote counts?
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:28
#175
Too many journalists are showing their ignorance tonight.
A bunch are talking about refusing the speaker role because if the Liberals give speaker to the opposition then that would be a majority.
Of course that is not true-- since there is an odd number of seats that would create a deadlock with the speaker voting. So it makes no difference. no excuse to get this basic math wrong.
If I heard correctly, I think one "analyst" on CBC said the Liberals won Parkdale-High Park in the last federal election.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:31
#176
If that's the case, then an NDP or PC speaker results in a Liberal majority on confidence items?
Think it's likely that no-one puts themselves forward for speaker, from any party?I would be very, very surprised if either the NDP or PCs allowed one of their members to stand for speaker. Peter Milliken was able to stand (and be elected) as Speaker in the 2006 and 2008 minority Parliaments because there was no chance he would have to break a tie on a confidence vote - even with an Opposition MP in the Speaker's chair, the Opposition parties still had plenty of votes to ensure the Government's defeat. You can be sure that if Harper was one seat short of a majority that nobody from the Opposition parties would have run for Speaker - they would have forced them to elect one of their own MPs.
I didn't know the U.K. had a tradition of ceremonially 'kidnapping' MPs who are candidates for Speaker. I only thought that they ceremonially held one MP 'hostage' at Buckingham Palace during the Throne Speech, in order to ensure the safe return of the Sovereign.
Maybe that was it. I'll have to research the matter further. Still it's an inherently undesirable job unless you're an MP or MLA heading for retirement, since it's considered bad form for a former Speaker to try to return to party politics.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:31
#177
The gaps in Davenport and Niagara Falls have widened and there are only a handful of polls left to report, so I think they can be called for the NDP and Liberals, respectively.
I don't disagree with Ciabatta2's assessment that it could have been a lot worse for the Liberals (especially the way things looked just a few months ago), but at the time same time, given the pro-incumbent sentiment that seems to be in the air across the country and the completely inept campaign run by Hudak and the PCs, finishing barely 2 points ahead of the Tories and losing 18 seats (and their majority) is not exactly a stunning achievement. Proof, I suppose, that campaigns really do matter.
I'd love to have seen the look on Warren Kinsella's face when he realized his vaunted Liberal war room came up one lousy seat short of a majority.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:35
#178
So, when can we expect a visit from Debater crowing about the Dear Leader's sweeping victory?
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:39
#179
Tomorrow, when he's sober enough to post, probably.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:42
#180
Does anyone know the popular vote counts?
As of this second, 37.5%, 35.32%, 22.94%, 2.95%
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:43
#181
Aristotle-- his digs at Hudak over the foreigner thing not that friendly either.
I thought that for sure, based on the federal results, that McGuinty would tank and that the Liberals would come in third. I was wrong, but as they say, pride goes before the fall. Hearing McGuinty's concession speech, he's not merely planting the seeds for a Liberal implosion, he is actively watering and fertilizing those seeds as well.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:47
#182
Quite a devastating nite for the Liberals, losing their majority and 18 seats, and this will be McGuinty's last kick at the can.
It might have been if they hadn't been expected to lose badly a couple of months ago. On balance, I think they'll take it and be happy.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:53
#183
Does anyone know the popular vote counts?
Liberal 37.5%
Conservative 35.3%
NDP 22.9%
Greens 2.9%
Other 1.4% (by my calculation)
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:55
#184
Quite a devastating nite for the Liberals, losing their majority and 18 seats, and this will be McGuinty's last kick at the can. Now that Canadians are showing they are tiring of the Liberals, maybe some Liberals may see the writing on the wall and jump ship before too long. You know, the folks that get passed over for the cabinets posts, etc.
Nonsense of course. Almost everyone in the political class in Ontario knows this was a devastating night for the PC's, not the Liberals. Dalton McGuinty made history by becoming the first Ontario Liberal Premier in over 100 years to win 3 terms, and almost won 3 back to back majorities. He entered the election behind Tim Hudak in the polls who had all but been anointed the next Premier, and yet managed to get re-elected despite a tough economy.
And of course this was McGuinty's last election. Pointing that out is irrelevant. It will obviously be time for a new leader after 3 terms. Very few Premiers stay longer than that.
Fri, 2011-10-07 00:58
#185
Tomorrow, when he's sober enough to post, probably.
I don't drink, but thanks anyway. 
I was at a victory party though in the Ottawa area tonight for the Ottawa Liberal MPP's where it was a clean sweep of the region: Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa South, Ottawa Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa Centre and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.
Fri, 2011-10-07 01:03
#186
And of course this was McGuinty's last election. Pointing that out is irrelevant. It will obviously be time for a new leader after 3 terms. Very few Premiers stay longer than that.
If the tone of McGuinty's speech was any indication, he's not going to step down voluntarily.
Fri, 2011-10-07 01:05
#187
A final point I would make for tonight: it's interesting to see how much weaker the NDP vote was in Toronto compared to the federal election. The NDP did not win Davenport by the large margin expected, barely held onto Trinity-Spadina, lost out in York South-Weston, and won ridings like Beaches East-York and Toronto-Danforth by smaller margins than in the federal election in May.
This could indicate that with a good federal leader, the Liberals could pick up most of these ridings at the federal level again if last May's Liberal collapse in Toronto turns out to be mainly an anti-Ignatieff vote.
Fri, 2011-10-07 01:12
#188
A final point I would make for tonight: it's interesting to see how much weaker the NDP vote was in Toronto compared to the federal election. The NDP did not win Davenport by the large margin expected, barely held onto Trinity-Spadina, lost out in York South-Weston, and won ridings like Beaches East-York and Toronto-Danforth by smaller margins than in the federal election in May.This could indicate that with a good federal leader, the Liberals could pick up most of these ridings at the federal level again if last May's Liberal collapse in Toronto turns out to be mainly an anti-Ignatieff vote.
True ture. Nothing should ever be taken for granted.
Fri, 2011-10-07 01:18
#189
A final point I would make for tonight: it's interesting to see how much weaker the NDP vote was in Toronto compared to the federal election. The NDP did not win Davenport by the large margin expected, barely held onto Trinity-Spadina, lost out in York South-Weston, and won ridings like Beaches East-York and Toronto-Danforth by smaller margins than in the federal election in May.
This could indicate that with a good federal leader, the Liberals could pick up most of these ridings at the federal level again if last May's Liberal collapse in Toronto turns out to be mainly an anti-Ignatieff vote.
Like the federal Tory result in Manitoba translated to the provincial scene. Oh wait...
The Liberals were up against a WEAK Tory leader. They almost tied in popular vote and the Liberals lost almost 20 seats. Now, Horwarth has McGuinty on a leash.
As for the NDP, they're finally shaking off the shackles from your federal interim leader. Their vote went up 7 points from 2007 and they won 7 new seats. They're back in the game. And for a couple close ones we won, there were several close ones we lost that will be targeted in the next election when the Liberals fall even further than they did tonight.
Fri, 2011-10-07 01:30
#190
Someone almost nailed it (missed by one)
A political
rabble-rouser
Member: 11438
Joined: Sep 19 2005
October 4, 2011 - 11:58am
#6 (permalink)
Well here are my predictions
Liberal 54
PC 37
NDP 16
No Tories seats in Toronto.
Fri, 2011-10-07 01:33
#191
Catchfire
Yikes! Next thread plz!
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