Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath 2

Thomas Walkom: 

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1067853

Quote:

. . what should the McGuinty minority government do to forestall another slump? Not all the economists cited here will agree. But the elements do seem clear to me:

Spend on needed social and physical infrastructure; postpone budget-balancing if necessary; continue using the state to encourage new productive forms of manufacturing and — like Brazil, China, the U.S. and many others — don’t be shy about protecting domestic industries.

The beauty of this is that McGuinty has already tentatively started down this path. If pushed by Horwath, who now does hold the balance of power in the legislature, he could do considerably more.

Hamilton Spectator:

http://www.thespec.com/news/elections/article/607465--mcguinty-meets-lieutenant-governor-horwath-wants-to-get-to-work

Quote:

Horwath sent a letter Tuesday to McGuinty and Hudak, asking for a “meeting with both of you to discuss workable solutions for the short term and a plan for the long term sustainability of our province.”

The Liberals were quick to pan Horwath’s idea.

“The premier met with the Lieutenant Governor this morning to inform him that he intends to form a strong, stable Ontario Liberal government,” said Jane Almeida, McGuinty’s press secretary, in an email.

“The economy is the government’s top priority. The premier has asked Finance Minister Dwight Duncan to prepare an economic update to present to Ontarians, so we know the impact the crisis in the European Union is having on job growth here in Ontario,” she said.

“There will be lots of opportunity for input from the opposition as the legislature resumes.”

. . . there has yet to be a decision on when the House will resume . . .

Don't wait too long, Dalton, you just lost your majority. Liberals told Harper he had to meet the House, not prorogue, remember? 

Here's the turnout by riding.  In a lot of GTA seats, it was 45% or less.  There was a cluster in the southwest: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, that had higher turnout, probably due to opposition to the Green Energy Act. 

http://www.globaltoronto.com/ontarioelection/111007_turnoutmap_2.html

Nine new NDP MPPs:

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/CindyForster_media.j...

Cindy Forster, 58, Registered Nurse and former Mayor of Welland, works for Ontario Nurses Association as labour relations officer.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MoniqueTaylor-croppe...

Monique Taylor, 39, Assistant to Councillor Scott Duvall.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Sarah-Campbell-cropp...

Sarah Campbell, 29, Constituency Assistant and Outreach Coordinator for former NDP leader Howard Hampton, and represents Oxdrift on the Kenora District Services Board.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/TheresaArmstrong-med...

Teresa Armstrong, 45, insurance broker, immigrated from Portugal in 1968.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/jagmeetSingh_media1....

Jagmeet Singh, 32, lawyer

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/JohnVantof-media-300...

John Vanthof, 48, dairy farmer, ten-year President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture, four-year Dairy Farmers of Ontario Director, and 12-year municipal councillor

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MichaelMantha-media1...

Mike Mantha, former Steelworkers' staffer.

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/TarasNatyshak-Essex-...

Taras Natyshak, 33, Labourers' Union Director of Training

[img]http://ontariondp.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/JonahSchein-media.jp...

Jonah Schein, social worker, has worked as a coordinator of the Civic Engagement Program since 2006. 

Kormos will be missed.  But I'm glad there's another bright criminal lawyer in the ONDP caucus.

First salvo of citizen lobbying of minority legislature. Many more will follow:

http://www.theobserver.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3329314

Quote:

Ideally, the opposition will force the Liberals into abandoning the fiscally-irresponsible move to close jails in Sarnia, Walkerton and Owen Sound.

Opponents to the move have pointed out in great detail the added costs that transporting prisoners to and from a super jail in Windsor would bring to taxpayers.

Following the election, the Opposition holds the balance of power on the voting floor and this will force McGuinty and his government to facilitate more input into their policies. Olive branches will have to be extended and compromises reached if the Liberals will have any hope of getting any part of its legislative agenda passed. The iron fist method of rule will finally be gone. The public has no appetite for another election any time soon, which will force the Liberals into operating in a much more co-operative way. If they don't, nothing will be accomplish and they can guarantee an even bigger backlash during the next election.

The new minority Liberal government could be very good for Ontarians. Talk of Sarnia Mayor Mike Bradley working with mayors of Chatham-Kent and London to form a southwestern Ontario political alliance will also help our opposition backbenchers gain more strength in Queen's Park.

lil.Tommy wrote:

So criticism time, Windsor and Thunder Bay should have been gains? Any feedback on that?

Turnouts even lower than putrid provincial average:

Thunder Bay - Atikokan 47.00%

Thunder Bay - Superior North 49.40%

Windsor - Tecumseh 45.10%

Windsor West 42.30%

Oshawa 44.90%

York South - Weston 46.30%

Scarborough - Rouge River 44.00%

Scarborough Southwest 48.90%

York West 40.10%

Scarborough Centre 45.50%

Brant 48.70%

Cambridge 47.10%

Kingston and the Islands 46.60%

But these are exceptions; in tight races, especially three-way races, turnout should be higher than average. It was in Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie, Ottawa Centre, Stormont - Dundas - South Glengarry, Peterborough, Toronto Centre, Guelph, Huron-Bruce, London West, Elgin - Middlesex - London, Sarnia - Lambton, and others, as well as the pick-ups in Algoma - Manitoulin, Timiskaming - Cochrane, Hamilton Mountain and Essex.

Big improvement for the NDP caucus. It is one thing to see a gain of 70% in seats. It is another thing to have a lot of the new MPPs being so accomplished and diverse. The Ontario NDP has a real good mix developing. With the recent success it may also allow MPPs that may want to retire, but might have worried about retaining their seats, to consider other options.

I know this will probably sound like sacrilege here, but I would like the Ontario NDP to work with the PCs on issues of affordability that they both campaigned on in the last election. I don't think that we should give the PCs credibility but the cost of inaction, particularly given McGuinty's recent bravado and arrogance, is too costly.

lil.Tommy wrote:

We can't just blame turnout can we?

Turnout is not an abstraction. I never met a voter who decided to go to the polls and then decided who to vote for.

Potential NDP voters in Thunder Bay and Windsor didn't vote enough to win those ridings.

Now, it's conceivable that the low turnout on Thunder Bay and Windsor was entirely discouraged PC voters who knew they were running third. I doubt it, since PC voters are more loyal and less easily discouraged than Liberal voters and NDP voters.

In ridings where the NDP is in contention, low turnout is a failure of the NDP campaign.

This is an entirely separate issue from potential NDP voters staying home in ridings where they think their vote will be futile. That's a rational decision.

Bob Hepburn:

Quote:

Since he has only a minority, McGuinty needs the support of either the NDP or the Conservatives to pass any piece of legislation, big or small. More often than not, that support will likely come from the NDP.

It’s been 26 years since the Ontario NDP had such power — and the urge to flex its muscles will be tempting.

In the coming months, Horwath will demand concessions from the Liberals on everything from tax cuts to public transit fare freezes and implementation of a “Buy Ontario” policy. Few of her demands will be met, though, because McGuinty will correctly gamble that none of them are do-or-die issues for the NDP.

Health care, however, could be a totally different issue. That’s because health spending will come under severe challenges due to the financial crisis facing the province as a result of the economic downturn.

On health, Horwath can use her new-found clout most effectively by holding McGuinty to his word to boost spending. She can also withdraw the NDP’s support if, in his bid to balance the budget, McGuinty makes deep cuts to services, closes hospitals or fails to make significant strides in improving the delivery of services.

McGuinty promised during the election to increase spending on health care, reduce emergency room wait times, invest in new hospitals and focus more on home care and community care.

It all sounds great, but Ontario residents have heard it before.

True, the Liberals have made some progress in all those areas over the past seven years in office. However, they have fallen far short of meeting even their own modest promises, especially in home care and community care.

In the past year, two major studies — one by the Ontario auditor general’s office and the other prepared for the government by the consulting firm Deloitte — documented a health-care system in chaos, with huge waiting lists for home care and school care and how Queen’s Park had held back hundreds of millions of dollars promised to help seniors live in their own homes.

. . . Horwath needs to decide what, realistically, she wants McGuinty to do on health care and let him know exactly what would happen if he fails to meet her demands at least part way.

The timing is right for these moves because McGuinty, wanting to convey the idea of renewed commitment toward health, is rumoured to be looking at Kathleen Wynne, a former education minister, to replace Deb Matthews as health minister.

If he replaces Matthews, it will be a clear sign McGuinty senses that health care will be a make-or-break issue for his minority government.

That’s why Horwath must refocus on health care — and in doing so make a real difference in the lives of all Ontario residents.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1068699--hepburn-horwath-s-chance-to-make-a-difference

Farmpunk wrote:

Natyshak's ag experience is minimal from what I understand.  He's a great talker, mind you, and has a lot of energy.  But he's going to have to appease a lot of rural and farming people in Essex without government support for NDP ideas.  I would guess his support came from Belle River, Harrow, Colchester, Amherstburg, the town of Essex, and less from rural people in "the county". 

I didn't even think of Essex as a rural riding; is it much more than 20% rural?

Adam Radwanski:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/how-bold-can-mcguinty-be/article2199468/?from=sec431

Quote:

Some Liberals will be wary of making their next budget too provocative, since it will be the first big opportunity for the opposition parties to bring them down. But others contend that neither the NDP nor the Progressive Conservatives will be looking to force another election within a few months of the last one, and that the latter in particular would be hard-pressed to campaign against belt-tightening.

Suddenly I picture Hudak having to send some of his guys out of the room while the NDP stands up against a brutal budget. I love the picture!

But I actually prefer working with the Liberals to save Ontario from that outcome. If they are willing, which we don't know yet.

They're part of the family but quite distant cousins. There is a pretty big chasm between the supply-managed sectors, traditional farmers in sectors that aren't supply-managed, and organic farms.  In particular for the latter that assert that they're squeezed between the supply management regs that restrict their ability to grow their businesses in supply-managed sectors and the traditional guys that undercut them on price.  Of course, this is a generalization but Farmpunk is essentially correct.  Each group has their own unique set of pressures that makes their needs and priorities quite distinct.

Vanthof can be a strong ag voice but his cred will be knocked down a few pegs outside of the dairy world, since he comes from a sector where income is nearly guaranteed and many farmers are millionaires, on paper at least.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Vanthof can be a strong ag voice but his cred will be knocked down a few pegs outside of the dairy world, since he comes from a sector where income is nearly guaranteed and many farmers are millionaires, on paper at least.

Then how come he was for ten years President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture?

Wilf Day wrote:

Then how come he was for ten years President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture?

Because dairy farmers can afford the luxury of spending LOTS of time on the Fed.

Re: LTU you are correct, supply management doesn't restrict organic production; it does restrict non-quota production.  Most organic production is non-quota. It depends on the scope of the operation.  For many organic farmers, small flock exemptions are more than enough.  But for a others, the exemptions aren't.

Quote:

Then how come he was for ten years President of the Temiskaming Federation of Agriculture?

There are two big ag sectors in the claybelt - beef cattle and dairy. The dairy guys are full-time, comparatively well-off, and very organized.  The beef guys are more of a mixed bag - more part-timers than the dairy crew, some hoobyists (you can't really be a hobbyist in the milk world), not unlike the old MPP Ramsay who was a farmer while also a municipal administrator (and a college teacher too maybe? not sure.)  There is other ag activity up there, some oilseeds/grain, other livestock, but it's minimal compared to the two.

I'm not suggesting that Vanthof can't be a good ag voice. But as a dairy farmer he is not representative at all of most farmers. It's not the end of the world but it's something he'll have to overcome. I also agree that Robertson would have been an excellent ag rep.

I'm sorry it is not incorrect at all.  I encourage you to go back and read what was written.

No one here is knocking supply management, advocating its dismantling or saying organic farming can't be integrated into the supply management system.

All that's been said are two things.  1) that lots of organic farming is done outside the supply management sphere.  You can scale it all you want but that's the truth. Dairy is a red herring because of the costs - you're not going to invest in the all the equipment if you don't have quota.   In eastern Ontario, where I'm from, very few of the organic egg and poultry guys I know are quota.  Families that I've known have run up against the system and they're anything but right-wing smash-the-system libertarians.  It's a constant point of discussion.

and that 2) some in the organic community are *asserting* that supply management limits organic production.  Yes, you and I agree that that assertion is wrong.   But that doesn't mean the criticism doesn't exist, that this isn't a topic of debate, and that it isn't a part of the dynamic between the different communities within the industry.  These are the types of issues Vanthof is going to come up against and plugging his ears and going "la-la-la..." will get him nowhere fast.

I'm from a farming family - farms on two sides; one organic out in eastern Ont, one traditional, in southwestern Ont; neither supply managed - and both have always been and always will be strongly 100 percent in favour of supply management regardless of not being in the system.  As you have implied, it's necessary for our economy and security.  My father, the cattleman, always rued the day his predeccessors decided to go it alone.  If they hadn't I'd probably be running the farm now.  Both always spoke fondly of their colleagues in dairy, egg and poultry (dairy in particular is a gruelling lifestyle); many of the others I grew up with, however, were less than charitable.

But just because that how I've been raised and that's what I believe in doesn't mean I'm going to pretend that every guy with an issue with the system is a whacko, or that the conflict doesn't exist - because I've lived it.  That kind of attitude will only serve to weaken support for supply management, not strengthen it.

I think that the vast majority of voters (as opposed to geography) in Essex riding are in suburban Windsor and in some satellite towns like Leamington and Amherstberg. The number of actual farmers in that riding is quite small.

I'm not arguing the stats.  And I did say Natyshak's support probably came from the urban areas in Essex.  

Look at at the riding on a map compared to an urban riding like Windsor-West.  Then tell me it's not "rural".  Drive through Essex and tell me it's not rural.    

No one from "the city" would consider Leamington all that urban.  Heck, even I don't.  It has more greenhouses than houses.  

I'd compare Essex to Haldimand-Norfolk and Elgin-Middlesex-London.

Whatever it is, Natyshak won it by being tenacious and a good communicator.  We'll see if he can squeeze the same kind of support from the province (and Windsor-Tecumseh Finance Minister Duncan) that the former Lib, Crozier, was able to achieve. 

Here's a map showing the poll-by-poll results of the 2011 federal election in Essex.  You can see where Taras Natyshak got his votes (and where he didn't).

Can we at least agree that the ONDP has a rural problem (outside the north) and needs to work hard to address it?  It may only be a handful of seats, but it will be the difference between government and opposition, maybe even thrid party status to official opposition.  THe NDP clearly had a strategy that work very well to gain support and seats in the north.  Something similar, by actually paying attention to rural issues, could propel the NDP onto the government benches in the years to come, both federally and provincially.

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Can we at least agree that the ONDP has a rural problem (outside the north) and needs to work hard to address it?  It may only be a handful of seats, but it will be the difference between government and opposition, maybe even thrid party status to official opposition.  THe NDP clearly had a strategy that work very well to gain support and seats in the north.  Something similar, by actually paying attention to rural issues, could propel the NDP onto the government benches in the years to come, both federally and provincially.

I've only spent a total of three years in northern Ontario. But always the economic position of New Democrats elected there is not very distinguishable from the others. New Democrats meet with chambers of commerce (gasp) and agonize over the saving of industry and small business. What tips the balance for them is support from labour.

I mentioned this to our leader last winter, pointing out that during the provincial leadership battles a couple of years ago, the northern pretenders to the throne all had core concerns about our collective economic future - the big picture. Andria promised better organization and communication. I'm not sure that she appreciates that northern/southern distinction.

Actually I heard someone just today that called the McGuinty government illegitimate on one of our local radio stations because it does not represent all of Ontario (ie rural Ontario)

In some ways the NDP is in a special postion with representatives from some of the most urban concentrated ridings in the province and some of the least concentrated and biggest land areas in the province.  If the NDP can learn to bridge the gap in between, such as in southwestern Ontario it could very well find itself in government.   They need to hire some people though that speak the 'language' of rural Ontario and understand our concerns.  The NDP recognizes the need to do that in the GTA, the north and so on.  The rural platorm this election was really good (thanks I suspect to Grant Robertson in large part), but we never heard a peep about it.  Not so the northern platform.  Look at it this way.  Agriculture and food now is the largest economic sector in Ontario having surpassed auto in the last few years with its troubles.  Ag and food creates a very large number of urban jobs too.   And it was never mentioned in the debate, never mentioned much during the campaign and I didn't hear the NDP mention rural issues once beyond a visit to Essex.  That needs to change if the NDP wants government.