Windsor West = urban
Windsor-Tecumseh = suburban
Essex = exurban (?)
Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath 2
Fri, 2011-10-14 16:45
#52
Fri, 2011-10-14 16:45
#53
... Haldimand Norfolk is a bad comparison since that is a totally rural seat with no urban areas at all. ...
Haldimand-Norfolk most certainly does have urban areas. The [url=http://www.norfolkcounty.ca/download/countymaps/Wards2010_Mapbook.pdf]Ward Map for Norfolk[/url] makes it clear that the geographically small Ward 5 which elects two councillors (as opposed to the one councillor elected for the geogaphically large areas) is community of about eight to ten thousand people. As well, Dunnville and Caledonia in Haldimand are clearly urban areas though smaller than Simcoe, like Delhi and Port Rowan in Norfolk. Not being a Toronto metropolitan area does not equate with not being an urban area at all.
Fri, 2011-10-14 16:57
#54
I will leave it to others to judge whether a community with a population of less than 10,000 would be considered urban or rural - or maybe just "small town".
Fri, 2011-10-14 17:32
#55
What it is officially depends on where it is.
Unofficially, for the purposes of political analysis in Canada, when we talk 'rural vs. urbam'- with all the limitations that has- a stand alone town is generaly 'rural'. And in that sense, liekly even if its work and commerce orientation is largely exurban.
In Nova Scotia, even 7-8,000 would put you in the top 5 towns [size ranked after the city-municipalities of HRM and CBRM. Even here when people say 'rural' in political analysis, Kentville and Truro [both modest growth centres typical to urban areas of population shrinking provinces] are 'rural'.
Fri, 2011-10-14 17:39
#56
This just sort of proves what I was saying about the ONDP needing someone who 'gets' rural Ontario. In my area 10,000 is a big town (not a city, but not really just a 'town' either- certainly not a 'small town'), whereas something with a few thousand would be a 'town' and something with say 750 a 'village'. Yet to me they are all 'urban'. The language is different. These sorts of things become glaring for folks in the hinterlands. It is why I am suggesting the NDP needs someone who can communicate in these areas without thinking about this sort of thing, but knows them in their bones. John Vanthof might be able to do it, but he will be doing it from a near north perspective and again that is different. Taras might be able to do it as he has some good NFU advisors, but it won't be in the bones as it were.
In the end though the ONDP and the federal NDP for that matter, need to get these sort of areas getting what the NDP is talking about if they want to succeed. I see great opportunities, but it is going to take some effort and thought.
Fri, 2011-10-14 21:25
#57
I'm not sure this is useful Life. But I'm very much a hinterland person- and for most of my adult life spent in 3 different provinces. And yes 10,000 is a big place to me to.
But there is a common usage only two dimensional etrminology where we speak of large swaths of territory [like a riding] as either 'rural' or 'urban'. And referring to the whole thing as if was unitary. That is obviously flawed. But it is also a useful 'sorting' for some productive political analysis.
In fewer word: it works.
And even if the folks in the 10,000 towns are different than the folks spread across the hinterlands- to a very great deal, they do TEND to reflect a more generally rural perspective, than an urban one.
Fri, 2011-10-14 22:26
#58
This just sort of proves what I was saying about the ONDP needing someone who 'gets' rural Ontario. In my area 10,000 is a big town (not a city, but not really just a 'town' either- certainly not a 'small town'), whereas something with a few thousand would be a 'town' and something with say 750 a 'village'. Yet to me they are all 'urban'.
Stats Can agrees with you except that their lower limit is 1,000. That's why Stats Can says 80% of Canadians live in urban areas.
However, when most city people say "urban" they mean "large urban," that is, an urban area bigger than 50,000.
I think the most useful terminology is to say "urban" on the one hand and "small-town and rural" on the other.
Sat, 2011-10-15 18:05
#59
When it comes to a seat like Essex, though, there are variables to the cut-and-dried urban/rural electoral-habit formula--and historically, the reflected glory of Windsor + elected-official experience has made even so-called rural Essex more NDP-friendly than the norm for such terrain. "Pat Hayes Dippers", IOW--a lot of whom may even have parked their votes with Jeff Watson federally over the past few elections.
Compare to Huron-Bruce where there isn't such a deep-grained history, Paul Klopp's Rae term notwithstanding. Doesn't make it impossible for Grant Robertson; just makes it a steeper hill to climb...
Sun, 2011-10-16 02:46
#60
The NDP Caucus met Thursday. The PC Caucus met Friday. The Liberal Caucus . . . are waiting for the phone to ring.
She (Teresa Piruzza) goes to Toronto next week for her first caucus meeting with fellow Liberal MPPs. And Thursday Premier Dalton McGuinty will swear in his new cabinet.
http://www.windsorstar.com/news/Region+rookie+MPPs+settled/5555020/story.html#ixzz1avLJkAM9
Have to appoint the cabinet before anything else, eh?
What of Niagara Falls Liberal MPP Kim Craitor?
http://www.viewmag.com/13905-A+Liberal+Minority.htm
Craitor gained notoriety during the campaign for not having his party name anywhere on his campaign signs. Instead of “Liberal Party” he had “Putting People First.” It evidently paid off. But whether his political future will remain with the Liberals is unknown. There were rumours prior to the election that if McGuinty managed another majority, Craitor would be turfed from the Liberal caucus. But with McGuinty’s Liberals one seat shy of a majority, its doubtful he’d risk tipping the balance any further.
NDP House leader sounds warning:
http://www.timminstimes.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3334159
Bisson added there are some common issues the NDP share with the Conservatives that are clearly against Liberal policies."So Mr. McGuinty had better recognize very fast that the culture at Queen's Park is very different than the culture in Ottawa," said Bisson.
"He needs to recognize that in fact it is a minority parliament and he will need the support of New Democrats or Conservatives," Bisson added.
"So he will not be able to just do as he wishes," said Bisson.
He added McGuinty will have to moderate his positions to reflect the new reality at Queen's Park.
Bisson also acknowledged that voters sent a message to all parties that they're not happy with any of them. He feels the public wants to the politicians to get to work on the job of governing.
"We politicians, and I am saying me included, had better tune in to the fact that the public doesn't want to see bad behaviour," said Bisson.
He said the public wants to see the politicians get along and "do what's right for them" not what's right for the politicians.
Bisson said he recognizes as well that leader Horvath wants to put away the old-style politics of criticizing the other guy for the sake of criticism.
"We're there to serve the public," said Bisson.
Bisson said in appointing him as house leader, Horvath provided clear direction that she wants a key message to get out to the public.
"We are prepared to work with whomever to do what is right for the people of Ontario. We are prepared to work with the Liberals and we are prepared to work with the Conservatives if the end result means Ontarians will get a better deal,"said Bisson.
Bisson said voters sent a message that they're worried about the economy, they're worried for their jobs and that life is not affordable.
"And anybody who wants to work with New Democrats on those issues, we are more than prepared to work with them in order to do what's right for the people of Ontario."
Mon, 2011-10-17 02:23
#61
When Dalton McGuinty appoints his cabinet, his first problem is rural representation.
That exemplifies one of the biggest aftermaths of the Ontario election: the Liberals were hurt by the skewed voting system. Until now, it has seemed that the biggest need for proportional representation was at the federal level. A few days ago all three members of the CBC Power Panel agreed that electoral reform has to be addressed, and Chantal Hebert reconfirmed her support for proportional representation by noting that she and Andrew Coyne were in agreement as to the remedy.
As noted above, the Ontario Liberals' most rural seats are:
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (includes part of Ottawa; misleading name) at least 35% rural. Rookie MPP Grant Crack from North Glengarry Township is suddenly a cabinet prospect. He previously worked full time as a manager at the Husqvarna dealership in Alexandria, and had also been Mayor for 11 years: he was reelected by township voters a year ago, receiving 2,162 votes compared to the 660 votes received by challenger Robert Proulx.
Peterborough 34% rural. As a city councillor Jeff Leal opposed the proclamation of a gay pride day for Peterborough in 2003. With a Business Administration degree, he worked for a local company until his election and "On October 27, 2004, with great pride, Jeff was bestowed upon, by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and Premier Dalton McGuinty, the privileges and responsibilities of Parliamentary Assistant in the Ministry of Training, Colleges, & Universities." His Queen and Premier are about to give him a promotion.
http://www.jeffleal.onmpp.ca/bio.aspx?id=biography
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale about 28% rural (but all within City of Hamilton). Ted McMeekin has been in cabinet since 2007. (He already supported MMP in 2007.) McMeekin, with an MSW, "served as Executive Director of the Burlington Social Planning Council and Chair of Part-Time studies at Mohawk College. He was responsible for social justice issues as a regional staff person for the United Church of Canada. For eight years, he owned and operated a bookstore in Waterdown" in his riding.
Brant 15% rural. Dave Levac looks overdue for a cabinet appointment: a former school principal, he has been an MPP since 1999.
If Ontario had an MMP model with 129 MPPs (90 local, 39 top-up) as recommended by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly, but with the regional open lists recommended by the Law Commission, the Liberals' caucus would (on the votes cast October 6) include two more MPPs from Central East Region: maybe Tweed's Leona Dombrowsky and Brighton's Lou Rinaldi or Kawartha Lakes' Rick Johnson or Barrie's Karl Walsh. And another two from Central West Region: maybe Stratford's John Wilkinson and Huron's Carol Mitchell or Waterloo's Leeanna Pendergast.
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/10/what-would-ontarios-legislature-look...
That's why they need a regional MMP model just as the NDP does, and just as the Toronto conservatives do.
Mon, 2011-10-17 08:12
#62
As noted above, the Ontario Liberals' most rural seats are: Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (includes part of Ottawa; misleading name)
Not really; the only part of "Ottawa" is the more rural/exurban stretches of the former Cumberland Township. Which, prior to regionalizatiion, was a part of Russell County, anyway...
Wed, 2011-10-19 18:08
#63
Wed, 2011-10-19 18:32
#64
I liked Gilles Bisson before, but I like him even more now. Thanks, toaster.
Fri, 2011-10-21 23:35
#65
the NDP - even with just 17 seats - has Welland and Essex which are both seats that have an urban/rural component . . .
It's interesting that, of the 17 NDP MPPs, four are in ridings where the PCs ran second: Welland, Essex, Timmins--James Bay and Kenora--Rainy River.
Sat, 2011-10-22 14:52
#66
Gilles is my MPP. I'm glad he has fans outside of the riding. :P
I think in the future, when it comes to Northern Ontario, you're going to be seeing a lot more NDP-PC races, especially once Mauro, Gravelle and Bartolucci retire or are defeated, much like it is on the federal level. Incumbency really saved the Liberals there this time. It could have (and should have) been much worse for them.
Sat, 2011-10-22 16:10
#67
I think in the future, when it comes to Northern Ontario, you're going to be seeing a lot more NDP-PC races, especially once Mauro, Gravelle and Bartolucci retire or are defeated, much like it is on the federal level. Incumbency really saved the Liberals there this time. It could have (and should have) been much worse for them.
On the other hand, the PCs came third in Nickel Belt and Timiskaming--Cochrane, despite facing no Liberal incumbent.
Sat, 2011-10-22 21:30
#68
Conversely, judging from the final tally, if it weren't for Mike Brown's incumbency, the PCs would likely have placed second in Algoma-Manitoulin...
Tue, 2011-10-25 16:22
#69
Shadow cabinet:
http://ontariondp.com/en/andrea-horwath-announces-ndp-shadow-cabinet
Andrea Horwath (Hamilton-Centre) – Leader, Intergovernmental Affairs
Teresa Armstrong (London-Fanshawe) – Training Colleges & Universities, Seniors
Gilles Bisson (Timmins-James Bay) – Transportation
Sarah Campbell (Kenora-Rainy River) – Natural Resources, Aboriginal Affairs
Cheri DiNovo (Parkdale–High Park) – Community and Social Services, Women’s Issues
Cindy Forster (Welland) – Municipal Affairs and Housing
France Gélinas (Nickel Belt) – Health and Long Term Care, Francophone Affairs
Mike Mantha (Algoma-Manitoulin) – Northern Development and Mines
Rosario Marchese (Trinity-Spadina) – Economic Development & Innovation, GTA issues
Paul Miller (Hamilton East–Stoney Creek) – Sport, Tourism and Culture, Government Services
Taras Natyshak (Essex) – Labour, Community Safety and Correctional Services, Infrastructure
Michael Prue (Beaches–East York) – Finance, Citizenship and Immigration
Jonah Schein (Davenport) – Environment, Urban Transportation
Jagmeet Singh (Bramalea-Gore-Malton) – Attorney General, Consumer Services
Peter Tabuns (Toronto–Danforth) – Energy, Education
Monique Taylor (Hamilton Mountain) – Children and Youth Services
John Vanthof (Timiskaming-Cochrane) – Agriculture, Food & Rural Affairs
Tue, 2011-10-25 18:28
#70
Gilles is my MPP. I'm glad he has fans outside of the riding. :P
I think in the future, when it comes to Northern Ontario, you're going to be seeing a lot more NDP-PC races, especially once Mauro, Gravelle and Bartolucci retire or are defeated, much like it is on the federal level. Incumbency really saved the Liberals there this time. It could have (and should have) been much worse for them.
Yeah but the difference between 2nd and 3rd in those races was about 3-5 percent. In Timmins James Bay and Kenora-Rainey River, PCs were in a solid second over the barely-there Liberals. Bartulucci and Mauro will probably be gone next time (whether by retirement or defeat), but I do think Gravelle will stay on as long as he continues to seek re-election. He's essentially an NDPer in all but name. Even in Parry Sound-Muskoka, the NDP was 10 votes away from second.