Mission 2015: Convert Conservative Voters

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KenS

Totally agree with what we need, and the illustration with the Conservatives long term on the ground 905 strategy. The questions you raise are near and dear for a number of us.

Whether or not it is the most important part, I want to zero in on this:

Peter3 wrote:

The NDP has historically only hired a full complement of ground organizers during electionc ampaigns. Jack understood that that would not be good enough and hired a core group of full-time organizers. After five years of investing in that capacity, it has all been let go. In truth, it has been under-funded and under-used since the change of managment in the party bureaucracy after the 2008 election, but it was still largely responsible for what growth took place outside Quebec in the 2011 election. We need it back, desperately...

You know more about the details than I do. And I hope some others may speak to those as well.

But you dont need to know the details to speak to the practical issues. And I'll give my existing sense of this.

When the hiring of the complement of full-time organizers happened- let one that now appears to be gone- I said then, "good start, but there better be more than this." [And a we'll see afterthought.]

Because the problem was not just one of sufficient long term commitment to funding. There was a fundamental inadequacy of structure- and apparently, of willingness to mess with that. Yes, Jack understood the needs, and insisted something be done about it. Without any funding of long term organizers the question of 'how' was moot. But it really is the central question.

The problem with the federal organizers- pre-election or long term- is that they are in practice just attachments to the provincial section. The stronger sections- where most of our growth is- even directly control them, essentially with just Ottawa consultation largely via the organizer.

Working through the sections with their own cultures, limitations and priorities, is no way to build the federal NDPs future.

In my books, the commitment to long term organizers was a better than nothing solution. And I suspect it was advanced that way.

There is the question of possibly formaly seperating the federal party. I wish that were on the table. But I also do not think that is required. It "just" requires the federal party saying "this is what we are going to do." That would be the spelling out of some course of indendently driven organizing. "Now let's work out how to coordinate what we do to maximize- but we are not going to give any of you veto power, let alone control, in the direction taken in the field.

So that is a different take on the problems than you saying that there was a change of administration, etc. But they are not at all mutually exclusive, and I would like to hear more.

A useful contrast/comparison: Jack's Quebec strategy.

When staff and key volunteer leadership people saw that Jack was serious about putting hard and limited cash behind this.... well, wait a minute now. And the resistance continued for a long time. As he is, Jaack was persuasive. But he also insisted- we are doing this. [Get used to it.] Years before May 2011 the skeptics knew this was paying off, and just getting started.

But what about the organizers in the field everywhere? Jack knew on how many dimensions this was necessary. And it wasnt meeting anywhere near the kind of resistance from the people around him as the Quebec strategy.

So whay not that same determination? I suspect there is no easy answer, and would not be even if Jack was still with us. A lot more money than the Quebec strategy? All the insitutional resistance, not least being the provincial sections? Sure, all of that? But that would not stop doing it in little bites. [Where making the existing organizational complement permanent would be just the initial step.]

Newfoundlander_...

If Conservative voters are going to switch to the NDP the party needs to start raising money. As well the extinction of the Liberals is important. 

KenS

Raisng money is integral to what Peter and I are talking about. We were just talking about where to spend it, but the organizational work is closely related to the work of ramping up the fundraising. In both cases it is boots [or slippers and flip-flops] on the ground. And the federal party is extremely thin on that.

It would sure be nice if someone would bring this front and centre in the campaign.

Wave, wave.

[Perfect set-up for Paul Dewar in particular.]

KenS

Here is a side benefit to the party putting more muscle- first ANY muscle- into organizing on the ground. Side benefit that would mean a lot to me.

All across the country there are literally hundreds of NDP activists who are alienated from their provincial parties, and will do litttle or absolutely nothing to help them. But they would like to advance the federal party.

Nothing stopping us you say. Yes and no. Sure we can work on kick starting or advancing our riding associations, but that is a whole lot easier said than done. Personally, my 'pioneering days' are over. I played a significant role in the NDP going from absloute zero to where we are in rural Nova Scotia. I'm really not up for repeating. And most even among activists are never up for that.

Development works where there is support for activists- that they do not have to feel like 'it is me and whoever I can scare up.'

I have not been willing to lift a finger for the NS NDP for about 5 years [most of 'my crowd' gave up even earlier]- and the establishment's side of the mutual admiration is even older. "Good lord, he took his time leaving."

We're out here.

KenS

One of the problems is that some even of the strong provincial sections on whom we piggyback absolutely suck at doing on the ground organizing other than immediately before the election.

The NSNDP just does not do it, period. Never has. Still does not. Considering what we achieved that may come as a surprise. But the achievements are based entirely in being really good at election campaigns, helped by some good fortune, and no serious competition when it comes to quality and sustained breadth of campaign organizing.

Accretion works for the NS NDP. Federally, we had the highest and broadest provincial support level. But we still could not move beyond 2-3 seats out of 11. Accretion did not work across election cycles federally. It would only have taken a little sustained work in the low hanging fruit ridings to take us over the top 2 or 3 elections ago. Never happened and never going to happen working through the NSNDP.

Newfoundlander_...

The NDP need to move from modern campaign to post-modern campaigning, like the Conservatives have. There needs to be permanent campaigning, which requires lots of money and the NDP don't have that. 

ottawaobserver

Well, the federal party broke with the provincial sections on the organizing side awhile before the federal election, hiring their own people with a mandate from Ottawa, instead of contracting it to the provinces, as it were.

If I had to guess at why org took a hit immediately post-federal election, it was out of an understanding that the provincial elections were coming up, and that fundraising (and debt repayment) was going to be the overriding immediate and urgent priority. Yes, yes I know they go hand in hand theoretically. but you want that debt paid off and out of the way good and early, and that fundraising infrastructure built up good and early. And now we have a leadership contest going on, with 9 candidates out signing up people for us.

Still, I think Ken is right that Dewar's campaign in particular has been sending not-too-coded signals to the folks who want to see that organizational capacity built up again, that this is key for him too.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

If Conservative voters are going to switch to the NDP the party needs to start raising money. As well the extinction of the Liberals is important. 

I think what the NDP needs is not Liberal extinction but reduction to endangered species status. The Liberals at around 20% perpetually would be a good idea.  In many parts of the country the largest plurality of voters are Anybody But the NDP voters.  Those people need two parties to chose from. But then I'm from BC where we always lose straight head to head contests with the right wing flavour of the decade. The Sask. NDP has fallen into the same quagmire and seems to be unable to change the voters minds even with a business friendly moderate leader. Much like James was unable to win in BC despite a corrupt nasty government. Maybe because they are centre left business friendly politicians is why they have no traction with the constituency that they should be exciting enough to go to the polls and vote.

KenS

ottawaobserver wrote:

Well, the federal party broke with the provincial sections on the organizing side awhile before the federal election, hiring their own people with a mandate from Ottawa, instead of contracting it to the provinces, as it were.

Thanks for the other background.

But I think it is way too strong to say the party broke with the sections. I see only a shade of difference from the long time relationship- we direct THAT staff person, not you.

The feds are still completely dependent on the infrastructure of the sections, and I see no capaity for taking an independent course.

An example during the time when we did have the provincial organizers is that despite the golden opportunity of long ahead known by-election opening in Cumberland-Colchester NS, we did NOTHING- no serious fanning of the local coals- until the usual last minute. That was following in the wake of how the NS NDP does things. So I fail to see the defining difference from having the field organizer more directed by Ottawa.

ottawaobserver

They hired them directly Ken. The job postings were on the federal website, and Brad said as much in several interviews with the Hill Times amongst other place.

Newfoundlander_...

Northern Shoveler wrote:

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

If Conservative voters are going to switch to the NDP the party needs to start raising money. As well the extinction of the Liberals is important. 

I think what the NDP needs is not Liberal extinction but reduction to endangered species status. The Liberals at around 20% perpetually would be a good idea.  In many parts of the country the largest plurality of voters are Anybody But the NDP voters.  Those people need two parties to chose from. But then I'm from BC where we always lose straight head to head contests with the right wing flavour of the decade. The Sask. NDP has fallen into the same quagmire and seems to be unable to change the voters minds even with a business friendly moderate leader. Much like James was unable to win in BC despite a corrupt nasty government. Maybe because they are centre left business friendly politicians is why they have no traction with the constituency that they should be exciting enough to go to the polls and vote.

According to 308 the Liberals would now win more seats outside of Quebec then the NDP. The Liberals and NDP are now tied in Atlantic Canada and BC and the Liberals have a solid lead on them in Ontario. While it's not long after the last election the Liberals have doubled in support in BC at the expense of both the NDP and Conservatives, people may say it's only polling and it's still early but the NDP have still lost support to the Liberals.

Newfoundlander_...

KenS wrote:

I did not disagree. The difference is what difference that amounts to.

What?

KenS

I did not disagree. We differ on what that change amounts to on the ground.

Vansterdam Kid

The federal Liberals always poll inexplicably well in BC between elections, they almost never perform and considering how unpopular the provincial Liberal government is that sort of 'support' wouldn't hold up if an election were to be called tomorrow. That and continuing, and less than popular, Liberal governments in Ontario and Quebec aren't going to be helpful in fuelling a Liberal resurgence. Let's just say that I'd bet against it happening. Oh yeah, not to mention tiny and unreliable sampling sizes outside of Ontario/Quebec.

Newfoundlander_...

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

The federal Liberals always poll inexplicably well in BC between elections, they almost never perform and considering how unpopular the provincial Liberal government is that sort of 'support' wouldn't hold up if an election were to be called tomorrow. That and continuing, and less than popular, Liberal governments in Ontario and Quebec aren't going to be helpful in fuelling a Liberal resurgence. Let's just say that I'd bet against it happening. Oh yeah, not to mention tiny and unreliable sampling sizes outside of Ontario/Quebec.

This is the problems with the NDP I've mentioned. The federal Liberals have led the NDP in BC in two recent Nanos poll but instead of wondering what could be done to boost NDP support here it's just as well to ignor it because it may not play out.

ottawaobserver

Well, NL'er, perhaps that's because people don't view (a) moving the between-election poll numbers, as a worthwhile objective, when measured against (b) doing what's needed to win seats there in the next election.

What's needed to do (a) is a kind of short-termism that can undermine work on (b), which is also basically my criticism of what the Liberals did for the past five years.

However, it's the mainstream media's interpretion of how politics should be conducted, so many people just assume that (a) is the normal modus operandi.

Most people in BC pay very little attention to Ottawa in between federal elections, unless it's seriously pissing them off. Asking them today how they'd vote in a federal election is to ask them to decide something about which they're given very little information on a daily basis by their provincial media. Who knows the extent to which they're answering on the basis of provincial versus federal Liberals or just what.

The fact is that if you go back and look at BC sub-samples of various pollsters between the last few federal elections, they weren't all that predictive of the number of seats the Liberals wound up winning federally in the province. The infrastructure of the federal Liberal Party in BC is weak and dissipating further. I don't know how many ridings they could even run decent campaigns in next time either.

So, if your criticism of the NDP is that they look as those poll numbers, and don't immediate hop to to try and move them ahead of the Libs, I'm afraid I don't agree with you that that's a problem. The NDP needs to get its leadership race right, get its fundraising into high gear, get its new MPs trained, and ramp up a far better policy process and national outreach infrastructure. And get Adrian Dix elected as premier. Those things will pay off far better.

David Young

KenS wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

Well, the federal party broke with the provincial sections on the organizing side awhile before the federal election, hiring their own people with a mandate from Ottawa, instead of contracting it to the provinces, as it were.

Thanks for the other background.

But I think it is way too strong to say the party broke with the sections. I see only a shade of difference from the long time relationship- we direct THAT staff person, not you.

The feds are still completely dependent on the infrastructure of the sections, and I see no capaity for taking an independent course.

An example during the time when we did have the provincial organizers is that despite the golden opportunity of long ahead known by-election opening in Cumberland-Colchester NS, we did NOTHING- no serious fanning of the local coals- until the usual last minute. That was following in the wake of how the NS NDP does things. So I fail to see the defining difference from having the field organizer more directed by Ottawa.

I hate to disagree with another Nova Scotian, Ken, but I feel I must.

Here in South Shore-St. Margaret's, the NDP went from 12.2% of the vote in the 2000 election, to 36.1% in 2011; a 300% increase.  What happened provincially?  The NDP went from 0 seats in the 2003 election, winning Queens and Shelburne in 2006, and then winning all 5 provincial seats in 2009.

Perhaps you aren't living in a part of Nova Scotia where the electoral growth hasn't gone hand-in-hand, but here it has.

Could we use more organization to take the federal wing over the top?  Of course!  But there are so many other factors that go into campaigns.

I'm proud to be a New Democrat, because it means I'm not a part of the Liberal/Tory mentality.

I have a T-Shirt that says 'I THINK, THEREFORE I AM N.D.P.!' that I wear often.

That says it all!

 

 

KenS

Another Nova Scotia federal example- that has not shown above the radar yet.

Scott Brison in Kings-Hants has always been seen as unbeatable. He was complacent and got a scare last time. But he is still- even the Liberals as they are- pretty hard to beat. But he's going to step down some time, and I would not be surprised if it is before the next election.

Given our support levels provincially and federaly, we SHOULD just be able to pick off the seat then. But since it is not winnable now, it gets absolutley no attention- even during elections, let alone the rest of the time. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have been working their butts off here. Barring a huge NDP wave that lifts all boats, they are poised to win this seat.

The party that gets that wave that lifts all boats is much more likely to be the party that does not depend on a wave carrying it to victory.

KenS

The point is David that with the NS NDP- and this is true federally as well- there is either a level of organization between the elections or this is not.

Potential for winning a seat is stronger when there is at least some depth of local organization. But the potential does not neceassarily produce the organization. And the NS NDP has always been completely laissez faire about that level of organization. If its there, use it. If not, oh well.

We won in my constituency of Hants East, and in Pictou West, in 1998 because there were good grassroots there. Kings South was the most 'natural' NDP rural seat and with lots of activists there, but never enough people with the requisite EXISTING organizational capabilities. So it took us 4 more elections to win a seat we should have had first. Kings South never got any support, so they never got more than piddly resources for an election campaign until 2009 when everyone was getting resources.

Hants West was not a natural NDP seat. But for severl years there was a really good organizational base... that got close seconds with no support at all, until they were all burnt out. When the seat finaly had no incumbent- too late, no one left locally, and we were back to third place, and still have every seat around but that one.

The list goes on. Obviously laissez faire for everything except election campaigns is going to frequently work- the South Shore is not the only place.

But laissez faire to organizing outside election cycles is not how the Conservatives made their breaktrhough in the 905, that is not how we made our breakthrough in Quebec, and that is not how we are going to make breakthroughs in our most fertile regions where our presence is not strong yet. 

Peter3

KenS wrote:

You know more about the details than I do. And I hope some others may speak to those as well.

But you dont need to know the details to speak to the practical issues.

As much as I wish that the details were better known, you are dead on the mark about them being unneccesary to moving things forward. As pissed as I am about some of the decisions and the manner in which they were made, it serves no useful purpose to discuss them in a public forum. Given some of what's going on I'm finding that a bit hard to stomach, but I'm trying to be good.

No, seriously.

Anyway, the organizers who were hired by the federal party were originally outside the existing support contracts with provincial sections. As I understand it, this created some friction and confusion and the arrangements evolved, but the idea was to have dedicated federal organizers who would not be pulled away to deal with priorities of a provincial nature, at least without the permission of federal office. I know that in Ontario the federal part eventually set up its own little office, separate from the provincial organization. I think it was closed down after the election.

I think your observation that this was a good first step is correct. Unfortunately we have never taken the second step, which is to develop a culture of permanent organizing effort in the party. Sadly, we are farther from that now than we were a year ago. It irks me enormously that the right-wing party in Canada has a better grasp of grass-roots organizing fundamentals than us.

I also agree that a properly mapped organizing effort includes fund-raising and, if conditions are right and the plan is good, should more than break even. A million bucks worth of good organizing has a more lasting effect on both your profile and your bank account than a million bucks of TV ads. Doing it requires a belief in the approach, an understanding of its methods and willingness to take some risks. It is entirely compatible with and bolstered by modern technology and social media approaches.

I was afraid that this leadership campaign was going to pass without any serious discussion of these sorts of things. I'm really pleased to see what has come out of the Dewar campaign. I've actually been pleasantly surprised by him so far. I was expecting (or at least prepared) to be turned off, having been less than thrilled with some of the party's messaging on foreign policy with him as the mouthpiece. I guess that's another thread.

Peter3

David Young wrote:

Could we use more organization to take the federal wing over the top?  Of course!  But there are so many other factors that go into campaigns.

Two points, David.

First, I agree that there are many things that go into a successful campaign, including good luck and fortunate timing. Quebec's NDP caucus is a testament to that.

Second, it's not just about the campaigns. The Conservatives have been building without stopping ever since they were created. The Michael Chong example I sited above is just one local example of what they do, every day. They are doing it now and there won't be another election for four years. We are not.

KenS

I feel the same way about Dewar's campaign. Even though I now little about him, it doesnt surprise me he is the one most and/or first talking about the needs of the grassroots.

I know the dynamics of his campaign drive decisions of when to roll out with things. But from what I want to see- the sooner he begins to flesh out what he means, the more the others will have to follow. And the more the better. Pretty words about grassroots and the neeeds of organizing abound in our party.

That was one of the great things about Jack- what he said meant more. But even Jack fell well short on this as far as even many of his biggest fans are concerned.

So this is going to have to be pretty concrete to move me.

Conversly,as unimpressed as I also have with Dewar as critic, and what a huge handicap his French is and that would normally put him out of consideration [even "we'll see, maybe later I'll look"]...... some at least modestly detailed organizing ideas and commitments- along with at least some idea of how we will pay for it- is going to get a lot of us looking harder at him.

He will still have to show me that hes not essentially a centrist- and I'm still skeptical on that. Thats for other threads- but the relevance here is that being impressive on the organizational front cuts him some slack on at least getting a more open hearing.

KenS

Since we dont seem to be especially in mid-stream on anything- lets shift to a Part 2.

You can always import what someone said to the new thread.

Gaian

KenS wrote:

Another Nova Scotia federal example- that has not shown above the radar yet.

Scott Brison in Kings-Hants has always been seen as unbeatable. He was complacent and got a scare last time. But he is still- even the Liberals as they are- pretty hard to beat. But he's going to step down some time, and I would not be surprised if it is before the next election.

Given our support levels provincially and federaly, we SHOULD just be able to pick off the seat then. But since it is not winnable now, it gets absolutley no attention- even during elections, let alone the rest of the time. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have been working their butts off here. Barring a huge NDP wave that lifts all boats, they are poised to win this seat.

The party that gets that wave that lifts all boats is much more likely to be the party that does not depend on a wave carrying it to victory.

Indeed, Scott Brison, an articulate, business-minded critic of Conservative economic "policy" demonstrates that building an effective riding organization is made far easier by having an effective candidate.

KenS

did not mean to reply in this thread

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Peter3 wrote:

Unfortunately we have never taken the second step, which is to develop a culture of permanent organizing effort in the party. Sadly, we are farther from that now than we were a year ago. It irks me enormously that the right-wing party in Canada has a better grasp of grass-roots organizing fundamentals than us.

It is a strange disease of the Canadian left.  The union movement has had the same inertia on organizing for a long time.  If you look at unions now most of them spend more time and energy on raiding than on organizing the unorganized.

Part of the problem the federal NDP has is the relationship with the provincial wings. The entwined nature of the membership means that everyone is both a provincial and a federal member.  I've planned lots of fundraisers but they were done within periods that the two wings of the party had agreed upon.  I have always supported the idea of a separate federal and provincial parties without the overlapping memberships.  At the ebb tide of the BC NDP, after going centrist with Dosanjh, I know I had people tell me they would join the federal party but did not want anything to do with the provincial wing.  

The party now has a unique situation where the province with the most MP's does not have a provincial wing and can fund raise and build the party continually.  I think that the emphasis needs to be on helping organize viable riding associations as fast as possible.  After all that is the local level of democracy in the constitution.  I am looking forward to many vibrant riding associations in Quebec sending policy ideas to convention rather than having the political elite tell all and sundry what they think that Quebec NDP supporters want.

MegB

Closed for length.

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