Continued from here.
Issues Pages:
NDP Leadership Thread - Part 33 of 300 at this rate
Fri, 2011-11-04 21:51
#1
NDP Leadership Thread - Part 33 of 300 at this rate
Sat, 2011-11-05 00:52
#2
Malcolm
It's going to be a long way to March.
Sat, 2011-11-05 01:55
#3
It's going to be a long way to March.
Not really.
The race officially started Sept. 9, 2011, when federal Council set the rules. Unofficially it may have started Sunday August 28 after the week of mourning. Either way, two months down, four and a half to go. Only three months to the membership cut-off deadline of Feb. 18. Subtract December when not much politics goes on.
This coming week is the only House recess week until the Christmas adjournment Dec. 16.
Four weeks of intensive campaign time Jan. 3 to 28, when the House is not in session. The candidates need to be on the road every night in those four weeks. Then follows three weeks when the House is sitting, leading to the Feb. 18 membership deadline.
Where is the list of debates? Where is the press release with the debate tour details?
Oh, right, there's still an empty chair. Time is at a premium. No time to lose, Niki.
Sat, 2011-11-05 07:05
#4
Good run down.
Subtract December when not much politics goes on.
Not much politics on the air waves.... but Babble doesn't need much to go on.
I think there may quite a bit of activity anyway. The meet and greets and speeches will slow down, but only for the two week holiday period. And by this time the on-line campaigns and the non-aligned spaces should be hitting their stride- and be very inter-active.
Sat, 2011-11-05 08:28
#5
dacckon
Meet Topp in Montreal or you could Meet Robert Chisholm in Montreal
Marston endorses Mulcair for NDP leader
A Paul Dewar article & a blog on Paul Dewar
Sat, 2011-11-05 08:40
#6
Idealistic Prag...
Since we're talking events, there's going to be a Kitchen Table talk with Nathan Cullen and another one with Brian Topp in Edmonton sponsored by the Edmonton-Strathcona riding association. (More are currently being scheduled, too, so stay tuned.)
Sat, 2011-11-05 09:20
#7
And in the meantime, it would be good for folks to analyse current NDP debate in the House, looking for exactly those questions that will dominate the news for years to come.The October job loss numbers should begin to put the Cons on the defensive. Seen anythiing of that?
With David Suzuki's remarkable speech to the Occupy Vancouver gathering in mind, and the job situation in eastern Canada - Ontario lost 72,000 mostly full time ( and mostly manufacturing) jobs in October - and trying to determine exactly how to respond to Steve the economist's pitch, devoid of concern for ecology and intent on selling this "energy superpower" down the drain, and pee on eastern manufacturing.
Not to disturb the fierce discussions taken from suspect MSM questions and postings, but which of the leadership contenders seems most able to deliver on this crying need to solve the problem of the "Canadian disease" (named after the "Dutch disease" that came with their natural gas discoveries and a Gilder that rose in value leaving Dutch exports uncompetitive)?
Sat, 2011-11-05 11:07
#8
Catchfire
Niki Ashton just announced on Twitter that she would be making another "announcement" with the tag #ndpldr on Monday at 12:30.
Sat, 2011-11-05 11:20
#9
Paul Dewar seems to be the candidate talking most about new policies, is this a good strategy for him? Will Dewar have all his policies announced before people start to really focus on the race and then have nothing left to talk about? Or is it good to have them all out there early in the race?
Sat, 2011-11-05 12:31
#10
Well, for one thing, it means he gets to stake out any policy ground he likes first, making it harder for anyone who follows him. They are either then copying him or disagreeing with him, but either way he's set the agenda.
Topp did a bit of the same thing on taxes, and Cullen on electoral coalitions, though I'm doubtful how many people will be following Cullen on that last one.
Sat, 2011-11-05 12:40
#11
Well, for one thing, it means he gets to stake out any policy ground he likes first, making it harder for anyone who follows him. They are either then copying him or disagreeing with him, but either way he's set the agenda.
Topp did a bit of the same thing on taxes, and Cullen on electoral coalitions, though I'm doubtful how many people will be following Cullen on that last one.
Good point on staking out any policy ground he likes.
I don't expect the race to really heat up till probably January so I didn't know if it would be harder for him to get headlines at that point if his policies are already out there. With that said if the other candidates aren't talking much in the way of policy before then they may face criticism and potenital supporters may be gone to other candidates.
Sat, 2011-11-05 16:27
#12
dacckon
Since today is Bank Transfer Day, and Brian Topp has worked/sitting on the board of directors of credit unions. Should he promote the issue of credit unions? Or is that a wee bit of a conflict of interest since he also got a campaign loan from one?
Oh and Nathan Cullen will visit West Kootenays
Sat, 2011-11-05 18:33
#13
FYI especially for Nova Scotians... Mulcair will be in Halifax next week. He'll be at Premier Dexter's Dinner on the 9th and there is a Meet & Greet on the 10th.
Sat, 2011-11-05 19:34
#14
Since today is Bank Transfer Day,
Isn't today Guy Fawkes Day as well?
Co-incidence?
I've heard about the debates, but have any locations or dates been mentioned yet?
Sat, 2011-11-05 21:16
#15
Meet Topp in Montreal or you could Meet Robert Chisholm in Montreal
Marston endorses Mulcair for NDP leader
A Paul Dewar article & a blog on Paul Dewar
Didn't Marston endorse Mulcair when he announced?
Sat, 2011-11-05 23:11
#16
Malcolm
If Ashton follows the pattern to date, her announcement will either be in Ottawa (like Topp) or in Winnipeg (comparable to Cullen since, like him, her own riding is too remote from the major media centres). The rest of the announcemens were in the candidate's home constituency or home city, except for Singh who sought out the high concentration of his coreligionists in Missisauga.
Sun, 2011-11-06 01:04
#17
But, since you've already strongly hinted that we're going to be knocked off our socks, you already know where it will be, don't you Malcolm?
Is it the Diefenbunker, the Olympic Village, Pier 21, the Plains of Abraham, the War Museum, Niagara Falls, outside a polling station in Regina, flying over the tar sands ... ?
Sun, 2011-11-06 01:15
#18
Malcolm
I don't think I've ever suggested hosiery removal.
Sun, 2011-11-06 01:48
#19
Niki Ashton just announced on Twitter that she would be making another "announcement" with the tag #ndpldr on Monday at 12:30.
Does it make sense for her to announce the same day as the Saskatchewan election?
Sun, 2011-11-06 04:51
#20
Getting interesting.
Among other things, she is announcing from somehere that is supposed to be notable, on the day when everyone is watching an election, where it is at least a high probability of the expected dissapointment for the NDP......... which we of course will not know how it will turn out...
Election in province of communications professional who is working with the candidate, and who just recently was some degree of driving force in the unsuccessful but notable Mielli campaign...
[not teasing.... no conclusion comes to mind]
Sun, 2011-11-06 17:44
#21
Sun, 2011-11-06 19:48
#22
minor things on Ashton that we already know.
Nice piece, though.
Niki Ashton will be 33 at the time of the next federal election. Ed Schreyer, as she will certainly remind us all, was elected Premier of Manitoba at age 33. It can be done. Do I actually think the NDP will elect a 29-year-old leader? Not likely. Still, it's a credible run, by a person I have very great admiration for. She adds a great deal to the race, not just a young person, not just a prairie candidate, not just an ethnic (half-Greek) candidate, not just a northern candidate from a riding 70% aboriginal, not just a brilliant and charming person who went to school in Hong Kong and ended up with an M.A., not just someone who has known the party as long as she can remember (her father has been an MLA since the year before she was born), not just someone who knows how to call on Michael Moore for help, but someone who, without saying a word, tells the whole country "this is the party of the future."
Welcome to the race. Let's go.
Sun, 2011-11-06 20:08
#23
The Saganash piece is much nicer follow to the first news item coming out of his meeting with the CP bureau. Also, beautifully written.
Sun, 2011-11-06 20:30
#24
Boom Boom
I think Ashton will be a formidable candidate in ten years, if she remains an MP for that time. For now, Peggy Nash is my first choice.
Sun, 2011-11-06 20:39
#25
Boom Boom
Whoever wins this leadership contest goes up against Harper in 2015 in a general election. I hope delegates vote for the next leader with this in mind, and don't elect someone who really has zero chance of beating Harper.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:09
#26
Malcolm
Whoever wins this leadership contest goes up against Harper in 2015 in a general election. I hope delegates vote for the next leader with this in mind, and don't elect someone who really has zero chance of beating Harper.
That was the rationale that led the SNDP to elect Dwain Lingenfelter. Just sayin' is all.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:18
#27
Looks like Niki Ashton will be announcing from Montreal.
http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2011/11/06/001-npd-course...
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:24
#28
Looks like Niki Ashton will be announcing from Montreal.
http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2011/11/06/001-npd-course...
As I just said, the candidate of the future. Manitoba is her roots, but she has taken wing. I'm going to be very interested in how many of our Quebec MPs (young and less young) will be with her.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:25
#29
That is a valid point...its all vey well for someone to be backed by the party "establishment" - and in the case of Brian Topp - who has many very good qualities - I have to say that he is being backed by a lot of people whose opinions I respect A LOT (ie: i.e. Broadbent, Davies, Boulerice, Crowder - to name a few). - but all of that being said - party establishments are also not infallible and there have been a number of cases in the last generation where the "party estblishment" closed ranks behind someone and that person turned out to be a disaster. Examples would be:
1984 - the Liberal establishment closes ranks behind John Turner - he turns out to be a total FLOP
1989 - the NDP establishment closes ranks behind Audrey McLaughlin - I won't say the catastrophic results in 1993 were all her fault - but she sure didn't help
1995 - the NDP establishment closed ranks behind Alexa MacDonough - I can't see she was a total flop and I also can't say that the party would have been any better off with Nystrom or Robinson - but she didn't exactly set the world on fire!
1993 - the Tory establishment closes ranks behind Kim Campbell - who turns out to be a total FLOP if ever there was one.
2008/9 - the Liberal establishment closes ranks behind Ignatieff and we all know how well that turned out.
...and of course we have the Lingenfelter fiasco to be in Saskatchewan.
I am still undecided and I may yet decide to support Topp - but we should not assume that just because the so-called "NDP saints" seem to like him - that it means that they see potential in him that we we "mortals" are not capable of seeing for ourselves.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:28
#30
Idealistic Prag...
I am still undecided and I may yet decide to support Topp - but we should not assume that just because the so-called "NDP saints" seem to like him - that it means that they see potential in him that we we "mortals" are not capable of seeing for ourselves.
Yes. If I decide to vote for Topp (or rank him second), the endorsements won't have had a thing to do with it. They were a good way of getting media attention early on, though, I can say that.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:29
#31
Boom Boom
That was the rationale that led the SNDP to elect Dwain Lingenfelter. Just sayin' is all.
I think it's a bit more serious this time. Whoever is elected in March will be running against Harper in 2015 for the job of Prime Minister. With this in mind, I couldn't possibly consider pitching a vote for Ashton, Singh, Dewar, and Cullen. Peggy Nash remains my first choice, followed by Saganash, Topp, and Mulcair, in that order, because those four are the ones I think would be the most likely to topple Harper.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:34
#32
Yes. If I decide to vote for Topp (or rank him second), the endorsements won't have had a thing to do with it. They were a good way of getting media attention early on, though, I can say that.
I woudn;t go THAT far. The endorsements are something that does carry some weight for me - but they are one of amny factors. IP - I'm sure that if someone who you REALLY looked up to like Linda Duncan - endorsed one of the candidates - it would have to carry some weight for you - not all but some.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:39
#33
Boom Boom, why do you not consider Dewar to be "electable" against Harper. Its not that I support him - but I think he would make a pretty formidable leader and by all accounts he is the candidate the Tories and Liberals are most concerned about.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:46
#34
Boom Boom
I just don't see Dewar in a matchup against Harper. I think Harper will walk all over him.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:52
#35
If you saw that CTV Question Period panel just before the election where Dewar totally eviscerated John Baird - I think you would see that he would be no pushver for Harper. To me, Dewar is a very formidable guy, the ONLY problem is that I just don't think his French is good enough.
Sun, 2011-11-06 21:59
#36
Idealistic Prag...
IP - I'm sure that if someone who you REALLY looked up to like Linda Duncan - endorsed one of the candidates - it would have to carry some weight for you - not all but some.
Heh. If Linda were on babble, I'm sure she would pop in right now and tell you all about just how hard a time I have disagreeing with her about things. 
But that aside, it really is true that endorsements don't carry much weight with me, and that's because I'm regarding my decision-making process as an empirical one. I'm looking to observe certain qualities in the candidates, so the fact of an endorsement isn't going to matter one whit to me, no matter who makes it. The explanation for the endorsement might play a role in my decision, especially if the endorser can provide detailed specifics of the reason for the endorsement, but even then I'm going to want to observe those qualities in the person myself before making a decision.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:09
#37
Boom Boom
I don't think Baird is anywhere near as formidable an opponent as Harper. I think Baird is a blowhard, actually. I think electing Dewar, Ashton, Cullen, or Singh is just condemning the country to another four years of Conservative rule in 2015.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:15
#38
Looks like Niki Ashton will be announcing from Montreal.
http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2011/11/06/001-npd-course...
Interesting interpretation of history:
Niki Ashton a été élue pour la première fois en 2008 et s'est notamment fait connaître en s'opposant à l'abolition de la Commission canadienne du blé et du registre des armes d'épaule.
Didn't she vote to abolish the registry a couple of years ago?
And even now, her take seems to be: abolish the registry, but not in the heavy-handed way Harper is doing it:
The NDP MP said that provinces like Manitoba have made it clear they oppose the registry and have no plans to establish a provincial version. "They have made it clear the registry does not meet the needs of their region," said Ashton.
Anyway, I guess she's learning how to juggle. An important political skill.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:16
#39
I think Romeo Saganash has a great narrative and could be a great leader someday (as good Niki Ashton for that matter) - but I find it hard to see how he would pose some great threat to Harper in a way that Paul Dewar would not.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:18
#40
Geez, Boom Boom, at least recognize you have a track record of making these absolutist pronouncements months ahead of events that turn out to be completely wrong.
:-)
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:25
#41
Boom Boom
At least I keep you entertained! 
And I was right in the last election - voting NDP gave Harper a majority.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:31
#42
And I was right in the last election - voting NDP gave Harper a majority.
No, voting Conservative gave Harper a majority.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:42
#43
But that aside, it really is true that endorsements don't carry much weight with me, and that's because I'm regarding my decision-making process as an empirical one. I'm looking to observe certain qualities in the candidates, so the fact of an endorsement isn't going to matter one whit to me, no matter who makes it. The explanation for the endorsement might play a role in my decision, especially if the endorser can provide detailed specifics of the reason for the endorsement, but even then I'm going to want to observe those qualities in the person myself before making a decision.
Let me put it this way. I agree with you that the most important thing for me is to watch how the 9 leadership candidates perform and make my own judgment, BUT BUT - I am not an insider. I don't know these people personally. I have not seen how they operate within the caucus and within the party organization. Someone could be fantastic on TV - but it could turn out that behind the scenes that person is a total maniac! My own observations are find in terms of assessing the candidates in terms of their external appeal to the electorate and to me via television. But a big part of being a good leader is also being able to unify the party and being a good strategist and being decisive and also being a good person. I can't know who good the 9 candidates are on all those criteria because I don't work on parliament hill and have not seen them all in action in that context. That is where endorsements carry some weight for me - because they come from people who have seen all or most of these up people "up close and personal" in way that I have not.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:50
#44
. . . endorsements don't carry much weight with me, and that's because I'm regarding my decision-making process as an empirical one. I'm looking to observe certain qualities in the candidates, so the fact of an endorsement isn't going to matter one whit to me, no matter who makes it. The explanation for the endorsement might play a role in my decision, especially if the endorser can provide detailed specifics of the reason for the endorsement, but even then I'm going to want to observe those qualities in the person myself before making a decision.
After 50 years as a party member -- the only veterans who think they can beat me are mistaking the NDP for the CCF -- you'd think I'd make up my own mind too.
Yet I place a lot of weight on endorsements by MPs. Partly that's because they have seen more stuff privately than I could know about. Partly that's because they have a lot more riding on the choice than I do. And partly that's because I'm still not quite sure the Liberal Party did Canadian democracy any favours in 1919 when it dumped the British system of the caucus choosing leaders for the American party convention model. The PMO can crack the whip so much harder in Canada than in most parliamentary countries, because the caucus has too little power over the PM.
My main caveat about deferring to the caucus is because the caucus is not properly representative, due to winner-take-all. So I will also pay attention to any endorsements by the candidates who SHOULD have been elected as MPs: let's say Ray Martin and either Lewis Cardinal from Edmonton or Jennifer Villebrun from Peace River. Mark Sandilands, and Calgary Labour Council V-P Collin Anderson. Let's say Nettie Wiebe, Noah Evanchuk, Denise Kouri, Darien Moore, and past chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations Lawrence Joseph. Maybe Rebecca Blaikie and Cheryl Osborne. From Eastern Ontario, Trevor Haché and Marlene Rivier from Ottawa and Dave Nickle or Lyn Edwards. Elsewhere in Ontario, Grant Robertson, Susan Galvao from Cambridge, Oshawa union president Chris Buckley, Markham auditor Nadine Hawkins, Jagmeet Singh and Michelle Bilek. From New Brunswick, Shawna Gagné from Moncton and Rob Moir from St. John.
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/05/who-might-canadas-mps-be-under.html
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:53
#45
Idealistic Prag...
At least I keep you entertained!
Actually, the evidence is seriously against that hypothesis.
Sun, 2011-11-06 22:58
#46
At least I keep you entertained!
Actually, the evidence is seriously against that hypothesis.
Excellent evidence. Furthermore, if 2.3% of the Liberal voters (blue Liberals) had not switched to the Conservatives in the final days before May 2, the Liberals would have held another 15 seats. Also, vote splits would have let the NDP take another five from the Conservatives while letting the Liberals hold on to one. Result: Conservatives 147, NDP 107, Liberal 49, Bloc 4, Green 1. The Coalition Canada almost had:
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/08/coalition-canada-almost-had.html
Would the Liberals have joined a coalition, or would they have supported Harper on the first confidence vote? We will never know for sure, but we do know what their voters wanted. On April 28 and 29, 2011, after the Liberals had slipped to third place in the polls, Angus Reid asked how voters would feel about various scenarios. On “The Conservatives win more seats than any other single party, but the Liberals and the NDP have more combined seats than the Conservatives. The Liberals and the NDP form a coalition government” they found 78% of Liberal voters liked it, 17% did not, and 5% were not sure. On “The Conservatives win more seats than any other single party, and form a minority government’ they found only 20% of Liberals liked it, while 76% did not. Of all voters planning to vote Liberal, only 13% said they would never consider voting NDP.
Sun, 2011-11-06 23:58
#47
Boom Boom, why do you not consider Dewar to be "electable" against Harper. Its not that I support him - but I think he would make a pretty formidable leader and by all accounts he is the candidate the Tories and Liberals are most concerned about.
Only place I heard this about Dewar was from John Ivison from the National Post on Power and Politics. He heard it from certain Tory insiders. I took it with a grain of salt. Was it a "we want Paul Dewar so lets leak it to the media he's the one we're most scared of"? Was it a couple low ranking nobodys who think they're top political analysts and this is their opinion? Who knows.
Did you happen to hear it from any other sources?
Mon, 2011-11-07 00:04
#48
One note about endorsements.
Ed Broadbent endorsed Peter Tabuns for Ontario NDP leader. Tabuns lost to Andrea Horwath by 20 points on the final ballot.
Something to keep in mind about when we hear about big name endorsements.
Mon, 2011-11-07 00:19
#49
...which is not to say that Broadbent was wrong...but we also know that establishments don't always get their way. In 2003 the NDP "establishment" for the most part supported Blaikie.
Mon, 2011-11-07 00:45
#50
Malcolm
That was the rationale that led the SNDP to elect Dwain Lingenfelter. Just sayin' is all.I think it's a bit more serious this time. Whoever is elected in March will be running against Harper in 2015 for the job of Prime Minister. With this in mind, I couldn't possibly consider pitching a vote for Ashton, Singh, Dewar, and Cullen. Peggy Nash remains my first choice, followed by Saganash, Topp, and Mulcair, in that order, because those four are the ones I think would be the most likely to topple Harper.
I beg your pardon?????????????????????????????????
Whoever was elected leader o the SNDP was going up against Brad Wall and the SaskParty who are every bit as right wing as the HarperCons. Now, the concerns of wee little Saskatchewan may not be of much importance to you, but those concerns mater very much to us prairie peons.
You're using EXACTLY the same arguments that the Linkites used - and look where it's gotten us. Link was the most electable, supposedly. Link was the only one that could possibly defeat Brad Wall.
Boom Boom, if you're tryng to persuade me to move your four candidates to the bottom of my list, you're doing a fine job of it.
Mon, 2011-11-07 00:47
#51
Malcolm
I don't think Baird is anywhere near as formidable an opponent as Harper. I think Baird is a blowhard, actually. I think electing Dewar, Ashton, Cullen, or Singh is just condemning the country to another four years of Conservative rule in 2015.
Id Gary Aldridge writing your material, Boom Boom. Thats exactly why we were all told we had to vote for Link.