Saskatchewan Provincial Election - Nov 7 / 11 Part 2

Malcolm wrote:

Regarding the outcomes, while I have seen projections as low as five seats for the NDP, I'd be surprised if it were that bad.  If the polls are correct and the NDP vote has eroded, that is a serious problem.  But far greater is the collapse of the Liberal vote, virtually all of which appears to have gone to the Saskatchewan Party.

I think the nightmare scenario for several campaign managers would be getting 48% of the popular vote and the Greens getting 3% - leaving the Saskies with 49% and the seat.  Indeed, the Liberal collapse means that the NDP could suffer a loss of several seats even if they make major gains in the popular vote.

Welcome to BC politics.  

There is a pool of voters in BC that regularly votes and they will never vote for the NDP.  It usually comprises about 45% of electors.  To win the NDP has to have that vote split between two other parties.  Unlike the right the NDP has a 50 year history that it is saddled with. The right just changes the vehicle and the same elite controls the AnyBodyButNDP party.   In BC the coalition is always anti-NDP that is the glue that binds parties like the Socreds and BC Liberals and Sask. Party.  New voters don't seem to be impressed with the NDP probably because they hear the anti-NDP message daily in the MSM.  The MSM knows ever rumour of scandal and is not afraid to throw in oblique references to NDP sins in its regular commentary. In BC's MSM we hear far more references to Glen Clarks "scandal" ridden government than BC Rail. Hell Gordo named a bridge after Min-Wac and he was convicted of securities fraud.  The MSM never really mentioned that inconvenient fact.

The NDP runs against every mistake it has ever made while in government and when it wins an election, the next election it is now faced with a fresh new opponent that has no baggage.  We are stuck in a 50 year old car we keep overhauling and repainting while our opponents are free to change the vehicle.  The left does not have the anti-NDP glue that binds the right and seems afraid to test the theory that it is time to change the vehicle.  50 year old institutions however seldom engage in suicide.  However the Sask. Conservatives freezing of their party seems to be a model worth exploring.  Who knows if the left and left liberals ran under a new banner they might dislodge many voters who like the NDP policies but don't like the NDP and for historic reasons just can't vote for them.

I wonder how the question of making union dues voluntarily - or forcing the union to do the collecting themselves - will play out.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/10/31/sk-wall-unio...

At this point it hardly matters what he says; the cat is out of the bag.

I think its more that the Sask party are bullies who want to run up the score as much as possible.

There is one aspect of the NDP's campaign that I think is bloody brilliant.  They've finally given up on that mindnumbingly stupid strategy of shrieking "OMG, the Saskies are Scary!!!!" as though that constituted a coherent or appealing message.  It failed three times, and it would have taken first class stupidity to try it again.

(Some will challenge my assertion that it failed three times sine we actually formed government following the 99 and 03 elections, however I would argue that was in spite of the central campaign message rather than because of it.  In 1999, with the parties of the right sorting themselves out, we should have won a comfortable majority. Instead, we lost the popular vote and fluked into winning enough seats for a minority - which became a majority with the coalition.  In 2003, the SaskParty collapsed on the incompetence of its own architects - although with a less likeable and avuncular leader than Lorne Calvert, the Saskies would likely have won anyway.  In 2007, the same twice failed strategy delivered us our lowest popular vote since 1938 - and in 38 we didn't even run a full slate.)

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Saskatchewan+Brad+Wall+will+sweep+back+...

edmundoconnor wrote:

I don't think Saskatchewan is quite ready for one party-rule, Alberta-style. The SaskParty fears that Malcolm mentioned are quite real. All it would take is one of the new MLAs (or an emboldened old one) to start musing about selling the Crowns, fairly soon after election night. The NDP wouldn't have to tell stories about the scary SaskParty, because the SaskParty would be doing it for them.

If the numbers in the cities are as bad as stated above then the Sask. NDP might find itself like the BC NDP did after the disastrous Dosanjh election. Coming back from that decimating an election loss could easily take two more elections or heaven forbid three like in BC.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/complaint-filed-over-saskat...

Anybody see that liar Bill Hutchinson place staged people in the mall for his canvassing? Great story by Geoff Leo of CBC!. I think this could sway the tide for Yens Pederson.

Prairielover wrote:

With all due respect  Edmund, doesn't PCS pay more than just royalties?  Income taxes, business taxes, municipal fee for business licenses, purchasing of supplies for the expansions, and associated PST on those purchases?   Think one of the problems in this campaign is that Link made the assumption that people would assume that the 5 cent royalty payment was the only revenue PCS generated for the province.

Yes, Prairielover, they pay taxes just like you and me, and a license just like any other business...

Income tax comes off the workers' paycheques, and CPP is federal.

So we should be thankful for that, get down on our knees and virtually pay them to haul away our most valuable non-renewable resource?

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Room+alter+potash+royalties/5636193/s...

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/story_print.html?id=5620287&sponsor=

$263 million in royalties on $5.6 billion in sales. Indeed, we should be so thankful that they honoured us by buying what used to be our company, and keeping it here (as if they have the choice to take their business elsewhere).

The big concern the national party will have to deal with, following Nov 7th(assuming the polls are more or less accurate)is the "The Orange Wave is Gone" meme that the MSM will start hitting as soon as the results are in, along with the "The Cats Take Mouseland" line that somebody is bound to use.

What do people here think will be the most effective way to counter that, and to limit the potential of demoralization in the ranks that the likely bad result Monday night could(and I hope it doesn't, but it could)produce?

Prairielover wrote:

Hi Smith, 

I'm not talking about a $100 business license.  Among others, I am talking about a development permit required to make a change to the mine - these are typically based on a percentage of the capital investment.  So if PCS is making a 500M expansion, it's not out of line for the development permit to be 5M to to RM, plus PST on all the consulting and contracting labour, plus the supplies required.  Income tax from the workers does has a provincial component  - just check your last filing, there is a provincial filing.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying there isn't room to refine and adjust a taxation/royalty framework, just that e conversation needs to be comprehensive.  For Link to have dumbed it down to a nickel a dollar without acknowledging ancillary benefits of the presence of the industry says a lot.

 

In the Alberta experience, Stelmach did exactly the same thing by focussing on the royalty only and not considering ancillary benefits.  What happened is that all the drilling was immediately paused while the oil companies re-evaluated the economics of all their well.  In the meantime, hundreds of oil field workers went home laid off, production in Alberta declined, wells were shut in, and overall government revenue declined substantially.  Just saying that Link certainly didn't look west to learn from past experience.

 

Not necessarily, Prairielover.

After all, Lingenfelter was framing it in terms of a political platform, and not actually drawing up a contract for renegotiation. 

As far as I know, nothing he has said is stopping production of anything.

...though it seems to be generating production of some really interesting counter spin.

You say there is room to renegotiate the royalty structure? Sounds like we agree in principle. That wasn't clear from your first statement.

If the results are as bad as some people fear, then I expect Link would probably indicate his departure on election night.  But if so, I think it would be a mistake to rush into a leadership race.  The party desperately needs to take some time to renew itself intellectually, and leadership races tend to short-circuit that process.  The last ting we need to do is rush into a leadership race as though a new face is all we need.  It didn't really work very well for the federal Liberals, after all.

There have been two attempts at a formal renewal process since the 1991 win.  The first (initiated after the near death experience of the 1999 election) got pre-empted by the 2001 leadership race and the process afterwards was an exercise in platitudes.  The more recent attempt occured after the last leadership.  Billed as "policy renewal," it ended up being little more than platform development.

What we need is a grown up conversation about what it means to be a social democrat in Saskatchewan in the 21st century.  It needs to be a deeper philosophical self-examination / party inventory.  The end "product" might be a new foundational document - a modern Regina Manifesto, if you will.

I think this is better done under an interim leader (say David Forbes or someone like that), although it could also work under a lame duck Lingenfelter, provided the usual suspects don't try to micromanage the process.  The best candidates to lead such a process would be someone like a Noah Evanchuk, a Ryan Meili or a Yens Pedersen - although I think the person chosen would properly rule themselves out of the subsequent leadership race.  (That said, while I can imagine any of them as a candidate in the next leadership race, I expect only one of them would run in any event.)

That process leads us through until late 2012, with the election of a permanent leader targeting mid 2013.

Malcolm, what would you say would be the baseline number of seats(more or less)that Link would HAVE to hold onto in order to stay on as leader?

I assume that, if he makes even a moderately respectable showing(doubtful, yes, but who knows?) that a large chunk of the party establishment would press him to stay in order to hold off what they might see as a possible takeover by whatever remains of the left wing of the SNDP.  In your view, how much of the caucus would he have to save in order to make a case for NOT packing it in(a step, we can assume, that would automatically put a stop to any possibility or party renewal or reinvention)?

It is sickening, though, that it will probably take  the Saskcreds winning what could be an Alberta Tory-size majority to get the brass to realize that "more of the same" isn't good enough.

Short of actually forming a goverment, I'm not sure Link would have any interest in hanging on until 2015.  He'd be 66 by then, and I can't see why he'd want the aggro.  Anything more than about 15 seats probably gives him room to depart in his own time.

I think you misread the dynamic from the last race.  While I think Meili and Pedersen (and even Higgins) were all farther left than Link, the division wasn't principally about that.  Indeed, most of the senior operatives in the Meili campaign (apart from me and from a few of Meili's own immediate circle) had supported Axworthy in the previous provincial leadership race, and several had supported Nystrom in the last federal leadership.  He certainly had high profile endorsements from the left (Nettie Wiebe, Peter Prebble, Don Mitchell).  He also had endorsements from high profile folk who had long defied left/right pigeon-holing (Maynard Sonntag, Mark Wartman) and folk who epitomized the technocratic tradition of the SNDP establishment (Greg Marchildon).

Know nothing, edmund,

My point is that royalties are but one component of a payment to the state that includes other factors such as taxation, business license charges, etc.  for Link to have dumbed down the discussion to a simple 5cents on the dollar discussion overly simplifies a complex issue, insulting the intelligence of saskatchewan voters.  I support collecting more for our resources, but let's talk about the entire payment for the resource.

I enjoy Malcolm's perspective, and think that Link steps down on election night, regardless of seat count (unless all the polls are really wrong and he becomes premier).  My read of the situation is that he probably expected Calvert to lose in 2003, and was expecting to return after that election and a short four years later run for premier.  I wonder why he didn't go after the leadership after Romanow (I recall Calvert's leadership was mostly against Nettie Wiebe).  Given his style he seems to eviscerate his competitors, even internally, which isn't a style you want for mentoring a younger wing of the party.  If you look at the way Meili Disappeared after the leadership (he's not even running) it not like Link is fostering youth and regeneration.  If he doesn't willingly step aside I would hope he would be asked to get lost.  

Polls close in 11 hours 50 minutes. Remember to vote.

lil.Tommy wrote:

Looks like the Saskies are playing dirty right to the last minute, anyone know if this is illegal? or what actions can be taken against these SP staffers who were caught red-handed?

Hopefully these folks were caught on camera, as this kind of thing is hard to prove. File a complaint with Elections Saskatchewan, and the police if necessary. As a last resort, YouTube the incident.

Results are now being counted.  The NDP candidate in Lloydminster, astonishingly, pulled around 90% of the vote in the first poll to be reported.  The NDP candidate in Kelvington--Wadena pulled over 80% in the first poll to report.

Biggar is tied.  Quennell is trailing badly in Saskatoon Meewasin.  Apparently Lingenfelter is trailing.