Toronto-Danforth byelection 3

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Tue, 2011-11-29 13:24

Stockholm

The plot thickens in Toronto-Danforth. Today Claire Prashaw - who was Jack's Constituency Assistant - announced she was running for the nomination and apparently it is increasingly looking like Marilyn Churley will go for it...I heard that Topp now says he will NOT run in Danforth and will seek a seat elsewhere if he becomes leader.

My own view is that what the NDP needs right now are either more experienced veterans to balance out a caucus full of rookies (enter Churley) or some really big name person who is a household name in some NGO etc...who would be a definite front bencher.

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Tue, 2011-11-29 13:31

Newfoundlander_...

The Liberals opened nominations last week.

Tue, 2011-11-29 13:49

Stockholm

Hopefully the Liberals will recycle that ridiculously bad candidate they ran against Layton in '08 and '11

Tue, 2011-11-29 16:07

Newfoundlander_...

Stockholm wrote:

Hopefully the Liberals will recycle that ridiculously bad candidate they ran against Layton in '08 and '11

He announced early on that he would run again, though I highly doubt that he will be nominated if others come forward.

Tue, 2011-11-29 18:44

Argagh12345

Her website tells of all her great experience. She's also young, with fresh new ideas. I think that's Toronto-Danforth needs; young and professional.

No offence to Marilyn, but she's not gonna be around for the long-haul. Though she's wonderful, she's in her later sixties and won't be around for long. I think this Claire can represent Toronto-Danforth for long time, with good knowledge.

Tue, 2011-11-29 20:03

adma

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Hopefully the Liberals will recycle that ridiculously bad candidate they ran against Layton in '08 and '11

He announced early on that he would run again, though I highly doubt that he will be nominated if others come forward.

Then again, he's got the bloodlines. (Which is also why I suggested his sister Amanda might be "better", still.)

Tue, 2011-11-29 22:30

Stockholm

Argagh12345 wrote:

No offence to Marilyn, but she's not gonna be around for the long-haul. Though she's wonderful, she's in her later sixties and won't be around for long. I think this Claire can represent Toronto-Danforth for long time, with good knowledge.

Actually I think Marilyn Churley is about 59 or 60 - NOT in her "late 60s" and definitely not at death's door. I'm not taking sides here - Claire Prashaw sounds great as well and there may be other candidated too. But as I said before, the NDP has tons of young rookies right now in Ottawa - what the parties needs are experienced people who have served in government.

Wed, 2011-11-30 00:36

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:
My own view is that what the NDP needs right now are either more experienced veterans to balance out a caucus full of rookies (enter Churley) or some really big name person who is a household name in some NGO etc...who would be a definite front bencher.

Stephen Lewis?

Wed, 2011-11-30 00:46

Newfoundlander_...

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
My own view is that what the NDP needs right now are either more experienced veterans to balance out a caucus full of rookies (enter Churley) or some really big name person who is a household name in some NGO etc...who would be a definite front bencher.

Stephen Lewis?

At 74 I think he has a little to much experience. :)

Wed, 2011-11-30 00:54

#10

Unionist

Audrey McLaughlin.

All right, all right, kidding. But you said NGO.

Wed, 2011-11-30 06:42

#11

David Young

Argagh12345 wrote:

Her website tells of all her great experience. She's also young, with fresh new ideas. I think that's Toronto-Danforth needs; young and professional.

No offence to Marilyn, but she's not gonna be around for the long-haul. Though she's wonderful, she's in her later sixties and won't be around for long. I think this Claire can represent Toronto-Danforth for long time, with good knowledge.

In the previous thread to this, Argagh12345, I said that Marilyn was born in 1948, and turns 64 in 2012, so I hardly think she wouldn't be around for long. She would be an ideal candidate to hold the riding for, let's say 2 terms, when hopefully one of Jack's children would be interested in running for Parliament.

Wed, 2011-11-30 21:33

#12

Lord Palmerston

Argagh12345 wrote:

Her website tells of all her great experience. She's also young, with fresh new ideas. I think that's Toronto-Danforth needs; young and professional.

Why is being a "professional" so essential?

Thu, 2011-12-01 11:07

#13

farnival

Stockholm wrote:

Hopefully the Liberals will recycle that ridiculously bad candidate they ran against Layton in '08 and '11

Argagh12345 wrote:

...No offence to Marilyn, but she's not gonna be around for the long-haul. Though she's wonderful, she's in her later sixties and won't be around for long. I think this Claire can represent Toronto-Danforth for long time, with good knowledge.

sounds like they already are.

Thu, 2011-12-01 15:48

#14

Vansterdam Kid

Stockholm wrote:

Argagh12345 wrote:

No offence to Marilyn, but she's not gonna be around for the long-haul. Though she's wonderful, she's in her later sixties and won't be around for long. I think this Claire can represent Toronto-Danforth for long time, with good knowledge.

Actually I think Marilyn Churley is about 59 or 60 - NOT in her "late 60s" and definitely not at death's door. I'm not taking sides here - Claire Prashaw sounds great as well and there may be other candidated too. But as I said before, the NDP has tons of young rookies right now in Ottawa - what the parties needs are experienced people who have served in government.

Being Jack Layton's constituency assistant implies that she has a strong understanding of the riding and the mechanics of government and thus isn't a "rookie" per se.

Thu, 2011-12-01 16:01

#15

Stockholm

I agree that she probably knows the riding inside out...but she would still be a rookie as a Member of Parliament in Ottawa.

Fri, 2011-12-02 09:09

#16

edmundoconnor

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Stephen Lewis?

At 74 I think he has a little to much experience. :)

As this article makes clear, his dance card is very, very full, anyway.

Fri, 2011-12-02 11:22

#17

Newfoundlander_...

Anyone here anything on the Liberals? Their nominations are open but I haven't seen any articles on interested candidates.

Fri, 2011-12-02 11:36

#18

lil.Tommy

the only one that actually sounds confirmed is Andrew Lang, who lost to Jack in 08/11

Wed, 2011-12-07 23:40

#19

Uncle John

Lang will have a better chance now. He will actally be the familiar face. LOL!

Wed, 2011-12-07 23:53

#20

Stockholm

Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt!

Wed, 2011-12-07 23:59

#21

Newfoundlander_...

I'd say any Liberal candidate, be it Lang or anyone else, will greatly improve their number from May, just simply because Jack's name won't be on the ballot.

Thu, 2011-12-08 05:11

#22

KenS

With the Liberal slide, they'll be lucky to get a marginal improvement, even without Jack on the ballot.

And remember, the Cons are actively working on eating the Liberals lunch in Toronto- even where there is no hope of winning the seat. And especially in a very visible by-election.

Thu, 2011-12-08 10:13

#23

Stockholm

We just had a provincial election and as you know provincial riding boundaries in Ontario are identical to federal boundaries. The NDPer on the ballot was someone other than Jack Layton, the party was led by someone other than Jack Layton and on top of that the provincial Liberals did very well across the province with 37% - a % the federal party can only dream of. So I thinki we should look at the provincial Toronto-Danforth results in October as a good gauge of straight partisan slant of the riding with no major "x" factors (ie: Layton being leader and on the ballot and the Liberals crashing and burning). They are as follows:

NDP - 54%

Liberals 31%

PC - 9%

Green - 4%

In a federal byelection, the Tories might make some effort and get up into the mid-teens (woith a corresponding Liberal drop) but otherwise - this is the yardstick.

Thu, 2011-12-08 11:01

#24

Newfoundlander_...

Stockholm wrote:

We just had a provincial election and as you know provincial riding boundaries in Ontario are identical to federal boundaries. The NDPer on the ballot was someone other than Jack Layton, the party was led by someone other than Jack Layton and on top of that the provincial Liberals did very well across the province with 37% - a % the federal party can only dream of. So I thinki we should look at the provincial Toronto-Danforth results in October as a good gauge of straight partisan slant of the riding with no major "x" factors (ie: Layton being leader and on the ballot and the Liberals crashing and burning). They are as follows:

NDP - 54%

Liberals 31%

PC - 9%

Green - 4%

In a federal byelection, the Tories might make some effort and get up into the mid-teens (woith a corresponding Liberal drop) but otherwise - this is the yardstick.

That would still be a good improvement for the Liberals, as well the provincial riding had an NDP incumbent which helped them. I think the Liberals number could double from the 17% they won in May.

Thu, 2011-12-08 11:11

#25

Stockholm

Its funny how quickly the Liberals have become similar to what the NDP used to be...bragging about how their 30-odd seats and 18-19% support in national opinion polls means they are still relevant...getting excited about the prospect of increasing their popular vote in a byelection - even if they still lose the seat by a 2 to 1 margin etc...It makes me almost feel nostalgic.

Thu, 2011-12-08 11:16

#26

KenS

"Could double". Taking 1:10 against that outcome looks like it would be a pretty safe bet.

Thu, 2011-12-08 11:57

#27

Newfoundlander_...

Stockholm wrote:

Its funny how quickly the Liberals have become similar to what the NDP used to be...bragging about how their 30-odd seats and 18-19% support in national opinion polls means they are still relevant...getting excited about the prospect of increasing their popular vote in a byelection - even if they still lose the seat by a 2 to 1 margin etc...It makes me almost feel nostalgic.

Are you trying to call me a Liberal?

Thu, 2011-12-08 12:42

#28

KenS

I think he was. Just ignore it.

Fri, 2011-12-09 00:54

#29

Lord Palmerston

Vincent Lam would make a great candidate for Danforth. I saw him speak about his biography of Tommy Douglas at the NDP in convention in Vancouver...and when he was asked "so when are you going to run?" he said he was very happy with his MP, Jack Layton.

http://www.vincentlam.ca/about.php

Fri, 2011-12-09 11:43

#30

knownothing knownothing's picture

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/nomination-...

Fri, 2011-12-09 15:00

#31

Stockholm

Craig Scott who is now seeking the nomination for the NDP sounds very impressive:

http://www.osgoode.yorku.ca/faculty/full-time/craig-m-scott

Fri, 2011-12-09 16:45

#32

Stockholm

Interesting tweet:

"Brian Topp will not run in Toronto-Danforth byelection. Would prefer to run in Quebec. Endorsing Craig Scott in T-D."

I also read that Janet Solberg is chairing Scott's nomination campaign and that he's also being backed by Alex Neve of AI and James Orbinski of Medecins sans Frontieres...CBC reports that as many as five other people are interested in running for the nomination which will be on Jan. 9.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1099904--brian-topp-...

Fri, 2011-12-09 23:11

#33

Newfoundlander_...

Seeing the party has affirmative action goals how much can this play into the nomination? Craig Scott seems like a very strong candidate, probably stronger then Claire Prashaw, but he's basically your typical "middle-aged white man politician".

Sat, 2011-12-10 05:11

#34

Wilf Day

The nomination meeting will be January 9th, and members can only vote on the candidate if they've been a member of the party within the riding for a minimum of 30 days, right?

So the deadline to join is . . . today???

Sat, 2011-12-10 08:54

#35

Holmes

Hey, Craig Scott is a professor at my school! I hope he wins.

Sat, 2011-12-10 10:43

#36

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

Craig Scott who is now seeking the nomination for the NDP sounds very impressive:

http://www.osgoode.yorku.ca/faculty/full-time/craig-m-scott

Does he ever! And you can download 18 of his academic papers by following the links. [url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1823686]Here[/url] is a good example, I think. You have to click on the link at the top of the page (one-click download) to get the full text rather than just the abstract. Most importantly, he seems to have been a very engaged activist for many years on many fronts.

Who knew the NDP has candidates like this?

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

Seeing the party has affirmative action goals how much can this play into the nomination? Craig Scott seems like a very strong candidate, probably stronger then Claire Prashaw, but he's basically your typical "middle-aged white man politician".

No kidding. I hope you do a teeny bit more research than that before casting your own ballot in elections. Otherwise you'll end up with Bev Oda and Leona Aglukkaq and Rahim Jaffer and... well I think you get my point.

Sat, 2011-12-10 13:16

#37

Newfoundlander_...

Unionist wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Craig Scott who is now seeking the nomination for the NDP sounds very impressive:

http://www.osgoode.yorku.ca/faculty/full-time/craig-m-scott

Does he ever! And you can download 18 of his academic papers by following the links. [url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1823686]Here[/url] is a good example, I think. You have to click on the link at the top of the page (one-click download) to get the full text rather than just the abstract. Most importantly, he seems to have been a very engaged activist for many years on many fronts.

Who knew the NDP has candidates like this?

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

Seeing the party has affirmative action goals how much can this play into the nomination? Craig Scott seems like a very strong candidate, probably stronger then Claire Prashaw, but he's basically your typical "middle-aged white man politician".

No kidding. I hope you do a teeny bit more research than that before casting your own ballot in elections. Otherwise you'll end up with Bev Oda and Leona Aglukkaq and Rahim Jaffer and... well I think you get my point.

What are you talking about? The NDPs constitution mentions affirmative actions goals for the nomination of candidates and I'm wondering how much of a role this can play in selecting the candidate? The party never met their commitment of having 50% female candidates in May and now they have what is considered a safe riding with a female interested in the nomination.

Sat, 2011-12-10 13:28

#38

Stockholm

The NDP policy is about outreach and ensuring that riding candidate search committees make sure that efforts are made to ensure that equity groups members seek nominations. There is at least one woman who is seeking the nomination in TD. Now its up to the card-carrying members in that riding who they want as their candidate. There no rule in the NDP that says that every single time there's a byelection, the candidate has to be a woman. In fact in the last parliament - two NDP women Dawn Black and Judy W-L resigned - and in both cases men were nominated to replace them Fin Donnelly and Kevin Chief. Whether rightly or wrongly - no one seemed to make an issue about the NDP nominating two men to replace two women...so I don't see why it would be much of an issue to anyone if a white male is replaced by another white male in Toronto-Danforth. But again it is a choiced to be made by the members in Danforth.

Sat, 2011-12-10 13:30

#39

KenS

To answer your question- when it comes to nomination for candidate, affirmative action comes in practically/formaly at the 'point' of candidate search.

The riding association is obliged to, and is accounatble to demonstrate that it has solicited and encouraged affirmative action candidates for the nomination. Who the members vote for is who the members vote for.

The commitment to meet targets is by the federal party and section. It is not the direct ultimate responsibility of any riding association to ensure meeting those targets, though the party can lean very heavily on riding associations to include affirmative action candidates in the nomination proces. There is no mandate to favour them.

Sat, 2011-12-10 15:04

#40

Unionist

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

What are you talking about? The NDPs constitution mentions affirmative actions goals for the nomination of candidates and I'm wondering how much of a role this can play in selecting the candidate? The party never met their commitment of having 50% female candidates in May and now they have what is considered a safe riding with a female interested in the nomination.

Sorry for any misunderstanding, NL. My objection was to your referring to Scott as "typical". He's not. And I fully support affirmative action goals.

Sat, 2011-12-10 15:43

#41

Wilf Day

KenS wrote:

The commitment to meet targets is by the federal party and section. It is not the direct ultimate responsibility of any riding association to ensure meeting those targets, though the party can lean very heavily on riding associations to include affirmative action candidates in the nomination proces. There is no mandate to favour them.

Accurate, but is it the end of the story?

Paul Dewar:

Quote:
Under Dewar’s plan only parties running a slate of at least 50% women candidates would be eligible for the full $2 per vote financing. Parties running 40-49.9% women candidates will receive $1.75/vote and parties running 30-39.9% would receive only $1.50/vote. Parties that are unable to run at least 30% women candidates on their slate would not qualify for public financing.

http://www.pauldewar.ca/content/dewar-announces-plan-ensure-womens-equal...

This is lifted directly from Quebec's 2005 draft bill that never got enacted: an increase in financing for parties that nominated or elected at least 30% women candidates, both in the per-vote financing and in the amount of expenses re-imbursed. A higher scale still if over 35%, and higher yet if over 40%. This was described as a temporary measure, to sunset when the percent of women elected to the Assembly hit 50%. (The draft bill also had an incentive plan for ethnocultural minorities.) The Quebec Citizens' Committee applauded this plan but suggested a different scale: one increase at 35% - 40%, a higher level if the party elected 40% - 45%, and a higher yet level if the party elected more than 45% women.

Sat, 2011-12-10 16:00

#42

Newfoundlander_...

Unionist wrote:

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

What are you talking about? The NDPs constitution mentions affirmative actions goals for the nomination of candidates and I'm wondering how much of a role this can play in selecting the candidate? The party never met their commitment of having 50% female candidates in May and now they have what is considered a safe riding with a female interested in the nomination.

Sorry for any misunderstanding, NL. My objection was to your referring to Scott as "typical". He's not. And I fully support affirmative action goals.

He may have a good background but to look at him he's your average politician, not that that's a bad thing.

Sat, 2011-12-10 17:49

#43

adma

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:
He may have a good background but to look at him he's your average politician, not that that's a bad thing.

You could say the same about Brian Topp, you know. Whiteness, maleness, and all.

Sun, 2011-12-11 13:16

#44

jeneuf

Looks like there's another contender in the nomination race. Justin Duncan announced today that he's running. https://justinduncan.wordpress.com

He's a public interest environmental lawyer who lives and workes in the riding. Seems like he'd be a great MP - young and really experienced. We need more strong environmentalists in caucus to stop Harper from gutting environmental laws.

Sun, 2011-12-11 22:12

#45

Stockholm

...and he's been endorsed by Linda Duncan of Edmonton-Strathcona (any relation?)

Sun, 2011-12-11 22:43

#46

Howard

It doesn't say it on any of his launch materials but Justin Duncan works for Ecojustice.

Sun, 2011-12-11 23:34

#47

Stockholm

Its nice to see all thes great people seeking the NDP nomination in TD. Its a sign of strength for the party.

Mon, 2011-12-12 01:11

#48

Wilf Day

Howard wrote:

It doesn't say it on any of his launch materials but Justin Duncan works for Ecojustice.

Formerly the Sierra Legal Defence Fund

Mon, 2012-01-09 18:20

#49

Michelle

Wow, really? No bump until 40 minutes before the meeting? :)

Mon, 2012-01-09 18:53

#50

vaudree

Does anyone know if the speeches will be on line?

Mon, 2012-01-09 19:26

#51

Michelle

Stockholm wrote:

...and he's been endorsed by Linda Duncan of Edmonton-Strathcona (any relation?)

No. From the same link:

Quote:

”I fully support Justin Duncan’s bid for the NDP nomination in Toronto-Danforth and look forward to working with him as a fellow MP,” said the unrelated Linda Duncan, Official Opposition Critic for Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development, and former NDP Environment Critic.

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