NDP Leadership 48

Topp is being wise. He can't afford a distraction in the middle of a leadership campaign, I bet Stockholm is right about a Québec candidate who didn't really want to be MP being prepared to step down to allow Topp to enter the HoC, and there is going to be a redistribution of seats for 2015, so Topp could very well find himself living in a 2015 riding that is currently represented by an MP of another party. As it is, Topp lives on the border of Etobicoke-Lakeshore (iggy's old seat), a perfect example of a seat that shouldn't stay Conservative.

Anyways, regardless of where Topp runs, I do hope he runs in 2015. He's made the commitment to electoral politics now, and as others (e.g. his endorsers) have noted, he's pretty sharp.

Malcolm in another thread wrote:

. . . there are nine caucus members and nine positions to be doled out with additional allowances attached:
Leader of the Opposition
Deputy Leader of the Opposition
House Leader
Deputy House Leader
Whip
Deputy Whip
Caucus Chair
Caucus Vice-Chair
Chair of the Public Accounts Committee

And are they all so busy with them that no one wants to endorse anyone for federal leader?

Maybe some of them should lift their gaze from their own situation and look around. The roots of the party, home of Tommy Douglas, and all that good stuff. Do none of them have anything to say about the scene in Ottawa? I don't, frankly, believe it.

CanadaApple wrote:

I can understand him wanting to have a seat in Quebec, but the only way he'll get one is if one of the NDP MPs there steps down after the Convention.

Unless Nycole Turmel steps aside for him, the next logical place is his home territory, the South Shore where he grew up. The MP who steps aside can continue as his constituency assistant if she or he wishes, as Sana Hassainia might. Dr. Djaouida Sellah might prefer to return to the full-time practice of medicine. But maybe others would be better: Rosane Doré Lefebvre or José Nunez-Melo in Laval, or maybe even Isabelle Morin in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine.

JeffWells wrote:

My impression (and I have nothing more to support this) is that the decision suggests the Topp campaign is struggling. If the leadership race had remained the "coronation" of early Fall, I believe Topp would have run in Toronto Danforth, no question.

The line about needing to run in Quebec - well, okay: in the general. After he became leader of the opposition, Chretien re-entered the House via a byelection in New Brunswick. Dodging this byelection, IMO, diminishes the seriousness of Topp's committment to electoral politics, but his leadership bid can't afford the diversion at this time nor the humiliation if he were to lose the nomination. 

This has already been addressed, but somewhat in more speculative terms than necessary.

Topp said a long time ago- back when he was supposedly this juggernaut- that he would like to run in TD, but would not if the by was called during the leadership race. Period.

Let alone whether anyone except people who want nothing to do with Topp ever believed there was going to be a 'coronation'. 

The by-election has to be called during the race, but could be for a date well after the leadership vote. So theoretically at least, the possibility remained that Topp could offer, and not have to do anything about the election until after the leadership race. But now that there are at least two good candidates putting a lot into it, any hint of his waiting in the wings would be a huge distraction. And if he were to win the leadership, these poor suckers would be obliged to step aside.... and not because Topp said so, because that is what virtually everyone would expect of them.

So even the small possibility Topp would run in T-D effectively dissapeared. Of course he isnt going to put it that way. The correct and expected optics is to accentuate the positive.

As for Topp looking at running in Quebec, instead of the Toronto area, I think it could be a big risk. Not only would he need to find an MP to step down but he'd need one who won by a considerable margin so that a win would be almost definite. Where did he grow up and how long ago is it since he lived in Quebec?

It certainly looks to me like Brain Topp intends to move into the 'front rooms' of the NDP whether he wins or loses this race.

But dont be expecting that he declare that, or else he is...

There is a no win side to leadership candidates who are not already MPs declaring what they will do if they do if they do not win the race.

When's the next televised debate?

Thanks! Good thing I asked today.

Must see if CPAC is also there for highlights.

Gaian wrote:

Must see if CPAC is also there for highlights.

They will not be carrying it live.

Polunatic2 wrote:

The recent Ontario election showed that Orange Crush is not so easily transferrable to Ontario and the ONDP remains in third place (despite some impressive gains). And there was no strategic voting campaign in Ontario this election.

Except that Ken Lewenza went into Thunder Bay and Windsor, urging people to vote Liberal. Two places the Conservatives had almost no chance of winning in.

I don't think Peggy should wear what Hargrove and Lewenza have done. But I think it's a legitimate question to ask what she would do about it *as leader*. Scott Piatkowski has said in fact she might be uniquely qualified to deal with it. Though of course the expectations on her to do so would be higher as well.

On the other issue, I thought I'd been listening pretty closely to what was being said on this other issue of whether Brian had wanted to run in Toronto-Danforth, and I never heard him say so definitively, only that it was an option but one he didn't control the timing over.

nicky wrote:

Did Nash take a position on Hargrove's expulsion from the party?

She certainly didn't support it:

Quote:

Newly minted Toronto MP Peggy Nash, formerly Hargrove's right-hand person at the Canadian Auto Workers union, acknowledged that the union leader's behaviour "made my life interesting during the campaign, I'll say that much."

"But he was doing what he thought was in the best interests of the CAW membership," Nash added.

"These are things that are open for debate and discussion. We don't expect people to be homogenous in their viewpoints."

Jack Layton and Libby Davies were somewhat more direct in distancing themselves from the suspension:

Quote:

Federal NDP Leader Jack Layton says he wouldn't have suspended union leader Buzz Hargrove's party membership from the Ontario wing.

"I wouldn't have gone down that path," Layton told reporters Monday following a meeting of the party's federal caucus.

"My view is that our focus always is on building our movement."

The Ontario NDP executive voted to suspend the union leader's membership in the wake of his decision to support strategic voting for Liberal candidates in last month's federal election.

Layton said he would have preferred to see a debate on the issue. He dismissed suggestions that the NDP's strained relations with Hargrove throughout the election campaign and up to now have hurt the party's pro-union reputation.

While the federal New Democrats don't agree with the move, "we respect the provincial section of our party," NDP MP Libby Davies said on CTV's Mike Duffy Live.

Davies and Layton's comments bolster Hargrove's earlier suspicions that the NDP leader did not play a role in the decision to suspend him.

Hargrove told Canada AM earlier on Monday that Layton called him on Friday to thank him for his help during the campaign.

"Jack actually (complimented) our union on the role we played in the federal election," Hargrove said.

"(Then) on Saturday, I get this other message, so I don't believe Jack would have been aware that this was taking place."

[url=http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/CTVNewsAt11/20060212/hargrove060212/]Source.[/...

Given the very, very serious pressure on current wages and benefits for CAW's membership, he's probably more concerned with putting a brave face on his failure to understand the meaning of Liberal economics - the impossibility of distinguishing it from Steve's, in the long run.

Wilf Day wrote:

CanadaApple wrote:

I can understand him wanting to have a seat in Quebec, but the only way he'll get one is if one of the NDP MPs there steps down after the Convention.

Unless Nycole Turmel steps aside for him, the next logical place is his home territory, the South Shore where he grew up. The MP who steps aside can continue as his constituency assistant if she or he wishes, as Sana Hassainia might. Dr. Djaouida Sellah might prefer to return to the full-time practice of medicine. But maybe others would be better: Rosane Doré Lefebvre or José Nunez-Melo in Laval, or maybe even Isabelle Morin in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine.

I have not been a fan of Turmel's leadership and she is older. There are those who would like Pierre Ducasse to run and her riding would be a natural choice in 2015. I could imagine the Outaouais region getting a new seat in 2015 under redistribution (those better informed, please correct me). If Topp ran in Turmel's riding, it would be good in that he could represent the riding he works in, without necessarily having to move his family to Ottawa. In 2015 he could also run in the contemporary equivalent of Etobicoke Lakeshore and lead the NDP surge through the GTA.

I have one major problem with Turmel stepping down for Topp, and that is that the NDP loses a female MP and a frontbencher at that.

As such, perhaps long time Topp friend Alain Giguère would be a good alternative. If Giguère sacrificed himself yet again for the NDP, this timefor a Topp leadership, I think the guy deserves the party equivalent of the Sacrifice Medal.

I don't see a difficulty in Topp finding an MP to offer their seat, if he wins the leadership.

IF Topp were to win the leadership, there are more factors than we can speculate about [which is a lot], which would play into who in the Quebec cacus might resign for him to run. There could be someone itching to do it, especially some months or a year down the road. Or no one wants to do it. Many possibilities, and secondary considerations anyway.

Given that they are calling it a "town hall" as opposed to a debate, I wonder what the format will be compared to what we saw last Sunday?

Wilf Day wrote:

CanadaApple wrote:

I can understand him wanting to have a seat in Quebec, but the only way he'll get one is if one of the NDP MPs there steps down after the Convention.

Unless Nycole Turmel steps aside for him, the next logical place is his home territory, the South Shore where he grew up. The MP who steps aside can continue as his constituency assistant if she or he wishes, as Sana Hassainia might. Dr. Djaouida Sellah might prefer to return to the full-time practice of medicine. But maybe others would be better: Rosane Doré Lefebvre or José Nunez-Melo in Laval, or maybe even Isabelle Morin in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine.

Topp's actual "home riding" where he grew is St. Lambert.  In many ways it would be a perfect riding for him. Not only did he grow up there etc...but it also has just enough of a non-francophone community that it is tailor made to be a long term NDP stronghold...not purely francophone to enough to be low-hanging fruit in the event of a BQ comeback and too francophone to be winnable for the Liberals.

However, St. Lambert is currently represented by Dr. Djaouida Sellah who sounds like a very qualified MP - and on top of that she is a Mulcair supporter - so I don't know whether it is realistic or right to expect her to step aside. Sainia Hassaina in nearby Vercheres just had a baby so I suppose its possible she wouldn't mind a "maternity leave" for a few years. Then of course there is Lise St. Denis in St. Maurice who has had to deal with a treatable for of cancer and it 73 years old. The only problem there is that her riding (which she was herself parachuted into) is Jean Chretien's old riding around Shawinigan which north of Trois-Rivieres - possibly not the most suitable place to base the new NDP leader. Topp seems to have family connections in various part of Quebec - Granby, Quebec City, St. Jerome, St. Lambert, east end Montreal, Westmount (where his wife and mother in law were perenial NDP candidates back in the "dark ages") - but no ties to Shawinigan. So we shall see.

I honestly think that the very very subtle mention by Topp of Hargrove's name in the same sentence with Peggy's was something that would go way over the heads of about 99% of people watching the debate on TV. In any case, its not as if Topp grilled her about Hargrove's past behaviour towards the NDP. He asked her a perfectly legitimate question about about the environment and the economy.

Wilf Day wrote:

CanadaApple wrote:

I can understand him wanting to have a seat in Quebec, but the only way he'll get one is if one of the NDP MPs there steps down after the Convention.

Unless Nycole Turmel steps aside for him, the next logical place is his home territory, the South Shore where he grew up. The MP who steps aside can continue as his constituency assistant if she or he wishes, as Sana Hassainia might. Dr. Djaouida Sellah might prefer to return to the full-time practice of medicine. But maybe others would be better: Rosane Doré Lefebvre or José Nunez-Melo in Laval, or maybe even Isabelle Morin in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine.

IIRC, one of our "accidental MPs" is also the oldest person in the Commons.  She may well be interested in retiring after one term.

Wilf Day wrote:

Malcolm in another thread wrote:

. . . there are nine caucus members and nine positions to be doled out with additional allowances attached:
Leader of the Opposition
Deputy Leader of the Opposition
House Leader
Deputy House Leader
Whip
Deputy Whip
Caucus Chair
Caucus Vice-Chair
Chair of the Public Accounts Committee

And are they all so busy with them that no one wants to endorse anyone for federal leader?

Maybe some of them should lift their gaze from their own situation and look around. The roots of the party, home of Tommy Douglas, and all that good stuff. Do none of them have anything to say about the scene in Ottawa? I don't, frankly, believe it.

I think part of the issue is that the small caucus have been focussed, first on a general election, then on dealing with the implications of how tha election played out.  I rather suspect that John Nilson will decline to endorse anyone from his role as interim leader.  (He was one of the few MLAs to make no endorsement in the last SNDP leadership, eve though he had no role that would have required him to remain neutral.)

I suspect that Cam Broten and Trent Wotherspoon (the two likely leadership candidates i caucus) will want to have a care of who they might endorse - if anyone.

If there are any endorsements our of the Saskatchewan NDP caucus, I would expect them to be sometime after the New Year.

I sure hope today's debate provides us with some 'defining material'!

Its cold and wet outside.

So I wrote an Op-Ed piece making use of the opportunity provided by a patronizing oil and gas industry flack sneering at opposition to fracking, and thanking the government for 'standing up' to us. Really.

I'm on a roll here. But this discussion hasn't provided for days anything that warrants an argument!

Have to content myself with chasing dust bunnies. No end to them.

TheArchitect wrote:

Wilf Day wrote:

Malcolm in another thread wrote:

. . . there are nine caucus members and nine positions to be doled out with additional allowances attached:
Leader of the Opposition
Deputy Leader of the Opposition
House Leader
Deputy House Leader
Whip
Deputy Whip
Caucus Chair
Caucus Vice-Chair
Chair of the Public Accounts Committee

And are they all so busy with them that no one wants to endorse anyone for federal leader?

Maybe some of them should lift their gaze from their own situation and look around. The roots of the party, home of Tommy Douglas, and all that good stuff. Do none of them have anything to say about the scene in Ottawa? I don't, frankly, believe it.

It's not quite the case that nobody who holds a position on the list has endorsed . . .

Malcolm was speaking of the nine caucus members in the Saskatchewan legislature.

Howard wrote:

I could imagine the Outaouais region getting a new seat in 2015 under redistribution (those better informed, please correct me).

Maybe. The Outaouais rates 3.6 ridings, up from 3.2 ridings today. Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel becomes Papineau—Buckingham—Argenteuil. Does Mylène Freeman stay in that riding? Perhaps she would rather move into a new Deux-Montagnes—Mirabel riding in the growing Laurentides—Lanaudière region which rates 9 ridings, up from 7.5 today? This assumes Laurin Liu will be able to run in a Saint-Eustache—Boisbriand riding. Hard to speculate (which will never stop me trying.) :)

See this thread:
http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/more-electoral-maps

KenS wrote:

Many possibilities, and secondary considerations anyway.

True, that. Including the possibility that the growing party membership in Quebec includes local candidates who take the nominations away from both Mylène Freeman and Laurin Liu.

Stockholm wrote:

 Then of course there is Lise St. Denis in St. Maurice who has had to deal with a treatable for of cancer and it 73 years old. The only problem there is that her riding (which she was herself parachuted into) is Jean Chretien's old riding around Shawinigan which north of Trois-Rivieres - possibly not the most suitable place to base the new NDP leader.

For whatever it is worth, remember that the NPD had a history of seriously contesting the Saint-Maurice riding back in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

In the 1993 election which marked Chretien's return, the NPD candidate, Claude Rompre finished a strong 2nd place, with 41% to Chretien's 54%. In 1988, Rompre also finished in 2nd, behind the winning Conservative (45% PC, 30% NPD, 25% Liberal). And in the by-election to replace Chretien in 1986, Rompre finished in a virtual tie for 2nd place with 20% (180 votes behind the Conservative 2nd place finisher), but well behind the winning Liberal's 54%.

But from 1993 onward, with the arrival of the BQ, the NPD remained in single digits until the 2011 victory.

While that history hardly makes Saint-Maurice--Champlain a party stronghold, it is also not a place that is inherently unfriendly to voting NPD. If St. Denis' health were to force her to step down, it would not be a bad place for Topp to run if he were to become leader. Winning in such a heavily Francophone riding outside of Montreal would be great way for Topp to demonstrate his commitment to building on the 2011 results in Quebec. And the fact that it is a riding with a recent history of sending a PM to Ottawa isn't exactly bad on the symbolic front either (assuming Topp has no interests in golf courses...)