Saganash's leadership prospects

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RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture
Saganash's leadership prospects

Because Canadians are too racist to vote for him. Even better to be my first choice for leader of the NDP.

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Mr.Tea

That seems like spurious logic, RP.  Canadians obviously weren't "too racist" to vote for him for the House of Commons. Given that NDP leadership election voters would presumably be less racist than the population as a whole, it seems silly to think that race would play much of a factor.

Although it's obviously generalizing, I'm comfortable presuming that America is more "racist" than Canada, generally. But Americans obviously weren't "too racist" to elect a black man president.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Guess it just flies over your head Mr.T. Sorry to be so blunt. You think Canadians voted him to the House of Comments?

Why would you think NDP voters to be less racist as a whole?

And seriously, the Americans were almost racist enough. Do you pay attention to the different election results? Jus' askin'

And that Obama sure is freeing those fields isn't he?

Mr.Tea

Not trying to pick a fight with you, RP. Just wondering what you're basing this notion that Canadians are "too racist" to vote for him on.

How many card carrying NDP members who would not vote for someone based on skin colour do you think there are out there?

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Umm, basically from the fact that he doesn't even get mentioned. I wouldn't know he was in the race if I didn't frequent babble. I've asked you some questions you haven't answered.

I don't think most NDP'ers still have a hangup on skin colour, I think they still have a hangup on gender. Sounds funny in this forum, but it's not. Romeo is very much a beacon for women's rights as he's a beacon for all human rights.

C'mon dude, you can't tell me with a straight face, you've even considered him as a PM.

Mr.Tea

Yes, he doesn't get mentioned much because the media tends to focus on the perceived frontrunners and he's not one of them. The NDP leadership race is incredibly crowded nd the media focuses on those who they think have the best shot. In the Republican presidential race down south, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman get less media attention than Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich because they're considered longshot candidates, not cause of skin colour.

No, I haven't considered him as a PM (though my mind may change before the end of the race). But me not supporting him has nothing to do with his skin colour and more to do with the fact that I really don't know him, given that he was just recently elected and represents a province I don't live in. My vote isn't firm but if the election were held today, I'd vote for Peggy Nash because I like her experience and I'm more familiar with her, given that I live in Toronto.

 

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Right on, I don't follow the US too much.

And I understand your vote preference but you've done nothing to refute the premise I started with?

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

And if you wanted to know him it's not that hard. You just don't care to look. Can't blame you. That's how most folk are.

Mr.Tea

I haven't refuted the premise because you've offered no evidence to suggest that the premise is true in the first place.

That a person of colour isn't leading in the polls is not evidence, in and of itself, that it's because voters are racist. The reason Herman Cain isn't going to be the Republican presidential nominee isn't because he's black.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Alright fine, Mr. Tea, you've proven you are not interested in discourse.

Perhaps, I shouldn't be hasty. Do you think Mr. Saganash has been given a fair shake considering his platform? Compared to others?

If not, why's that so? How did Barack Obama get elected? Selling out his own people. Do you think Romeo will do that? How come he doesn't get media? Pause and reflect.

wage zombie

I think he doesn't get media attention because of racism.

I think he might have a lot more support from NDP members if his English debate performance hadn't been so poor.  Hopefully he can be more impressive when healthy in future debates.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Really, one debate disqualifies him?

I hope better of my NPD friends.

theleftyinvestor

wage zombie wrote:

I think he doesn't get media attention because of racism.

I think he might have a lot more support from NDP members if his English debate performance hadn't been so poor.  Hopefully he can be more impressive when healthy in future debates.

RevolutionPlease wrote:
Really, one debate disqualifies him? I hope better of my NPD friends.

It's not just one debate performance. At the federal convention in Vancouver this summer, on the televised debate, and at the BCNDP convention all-candidates forum - in each venue Saganash seemed hesitant and physically uncomfortable talking to a big crowd in English. I love what he has to say, I find him charming for sure, and I want to like him more, but I just don't thing that he is prepared - today - to lead the Official Opposition into an election. I would be similarly hesitant to send Dewar into that role based on how he comes across in French.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I read his blogs and Facebook posts, and I don't seen any difficulty in his English whatsoever.  He did a one-on-one interview with Evan Solomon on P&P and his English was perfect.

wage zombie

RevolutionPlease wrote:
Really, one debate disqualifies him? I hope better of my NPD friends.

I never said it disqualified him.

Currently I have Saganash #6, which might seem low, and it is last out of the candidates I view as top tier or credible.

But I am certainly open to ranking him higher, and potentially I would rank him #1.

But he needs to show more comfort and confidence in an English debate setting first.

In the first debate it seemed to me he was mumbling into his chest the whole time.  If he was sick, then that's understandable.  If you're sick the day of the exam, you get to write it another day, but you don't get an automatic A.

Heading into the BC Town Hall I had Saganash #5 and Cullen 6.  I thought Saganash performed better here than at the first debate, but Cullen shined, and so Saganash got bumped down to #6.

If Saganash can show that he in comfortable and confident in this kind of debate format in English, then he will move up in my list very quickly.

But don't expect that a poor (IMO, very poor) performance in the first debate is going to be anything but a negative for a candidate.

theleftyinvestor

Well, Saganash is known to be comfortable in the media spotlight, so perhaps he's fine one-on-one with an interviewer or a small group. He seems to get shakier with a big audience and some competition, which worries me because this is friendly competition - how much worse would it be with hostile competition? But if I see clear evidence that his spontaneous debate skills are improving, he could move several spots up my ballot. Until then I consider him to be a valuable member of the team nonetheless, and he would be great in cabinet.

Hunky_Monkey

I think he has more support in this race because he's Cree.

KenS

Maybe. But that would be just a modicum of support, until hitting the glass ceiling... because he is Cree.

Lachine Scot

I'm rooting for him. Let him win or lose by his own merits, not "Well, I'd support him, but I know OTHER people wouldn't, so I won't..."

KenS

My remark might be interpreted a number of ways.

It was mostly the expression of an objection to the previous post, and it would be more fully expressed as:

"Maybe. But if that were true, then it would be just a modicum of support, until hitting the glass ceiling... because he is Cree."

Lachine Scot

I'll agree with that.

KenS

Romeo running for the top spot is a challenge in more ways than I can count.

Because he is not your conventional candidate for the leadership of the Opposition, period. [WAY beyond the challenging in itself fact that he is Cree.]

writer writer's picture

If Romeo were to win, what would Harper be able to use against him to frame Conservative attack ads? Is he more or less vulnerable than the other candidates in this respect? I find this to be a very interesting question.

KenS

Unfortunately writer, I think it would be all too easy to use racism against Romeo, even without ever doing anything overt.

Especially, just about anywhere in the West.

Aristotleded24

I'm not so sure about that, Ken. For one thing, a racist campaign would confirm people's worst fears about Harper. A racist campagin may also motivate the First Nations to vote in larger numbers, and they certainly wouldn't vote for the Conservatives in that scenario.

KenS

If it ever happened, there would be nothing overt. Nothing like the ugly Reform anti-Quebec ads of 1997.

First Nations people would see it of course, as would a lot of people. But we dont vote for them anyway, and I'm sure they wouldtake the ugly benefits as a trade-off for a few more FN coming out to vote.... including the sacrifice of the tipping point in a few close seats in the hinterlands of the West.

I'm not going to get into it, but suffice to say I can see the ads.

If you have lived anywhere in the West where there is a sizeable FN population close by- which is a LOT of plces- you should be able to get the idea.

Unlike RP, I do not think that means Romeo cannot win. In fact, there are ways that being FN, the adversity faced, etc, could be a convincing narrative with a lot of people who I would describe as 'comfortably racist' about First Nations people... who would vote for someone like Romeo in spite of that.

But let's not fool ourselves about what is out there and can be used.

For myself, If Romeo does not win... I hope very much that the new Leader sees how compellingly we need Romeo to be in every Candians living room on a regular basis.

He is smart, articulate, charming, very knowledgable... and after the leadership race no one will be able to think he was elevated to the front of the front benches because he is Cree and the NDP are a bunch of sappy liberals.

Romeo's presence in living rooms will go a long way to the healing we need.

writer writer's picture

Aristotleded24, it would also turn off a whole lot of the Conservatives' new support. There goes the 905, for example. Conservatives paid a high price for their ad making fun of Chretien's mouth. I don't think this kind of mistake is something they are eager to repeat.

They'd *want* to use it. But they'd know enough to not use it. At least not overtly. And it would really, really bug them.

Maysie Maysie's picture

The Ontario Conservatives had no problem running a racist campaign in October 2011. One could even argue, given their increase in seats, that they were successful.

Aboriginal people over 18 are less than 5% of Canada's population.

 

KenS

The Conservatives are very good at learning from past campaigns.

One thing they are good at is learning from total failure- adapting to pursue the same end in a better way.

There will never again be anything like the Chreiten ads [and they were amateurs then].... but that leaves PLENTY of other territory for them to play ugly.

And the ads would go right over the heads of everyone in Ontario except people who hate them. Even if it were pointed out to swing voters in the 905 how it was being done, they still wouldnt get it. Just think us paranoid... another reason to vote Conservative.

Aristotleded24

KenS wrote:
If you have lived anywhere in the West where there is a sizeable FN population close by- which is a LOT of plces- you should be able to get the idea.

Check my location line. I've lived in the Prairies for almost all my life, I know full well how bad anti-First Nations racism can be. It is also the case that the participation rates of Aboriginal voters is very low (whether we are talking urban aboriginals or First Nations), but if they come out in large enough numbers, changes will happen. Even a slight increase in First Nations turn-out costs the Conservatives Churchill River, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, and Palliser off the hop.

KenS

And they were willing to write off more seats than that in Quebec as a tradeoff for generalized benefits.

Definite benefits versus costs that are 'reasonable' even IF there is a large ramp-up of aboriginal votes in reaction.

Polarization works for the Conservatives. Of course not, if they go about it clumsily. But clumsy is not the only way, and if it results in 'controlled polarization'... works for them.

writer writer's picture

Compare and contrast, though, with the polarization available to them with the other candidates. Maysie, thanks for the reminder.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

If Romeo doesn't win, I think he'd make a great Deputy Leader. I'd actually  like to see two Deputy Leaders again - a team of Saganash and Ashton would be awesome if neither wins the leadership.

Bookish Agrarian

Maysie wrote:

The Ontario Conservatives had no problem running a racist campaign in October 2011. One could even argue, given their increase in seats, that they were successful.

Aboriginal people over 18 are less than 5% of Canada's population.

 

I would qualify that a bit.   Those Conservatives were heading for a comfortable majority government, if you believed the polls.  What seemed to stall them and then make them slide right out of forming government was the overt racist nature of their attacks of the Liberal hiring proposal.  So I don't know that it is a given that they were 'sucessful'.  It was still ugly and I saw up front and personal how some people reacted to the racist tone of that campaign, including a guy at one meeting who looked like he was going to have an organsim clapping every time the Conservative candidate played that racist card in comments, but I am not sure successful is the right word. 

On the broader question, many of the people you are talking about are not in the NDP universe anyway.  Romeo's approach to politics and the kind of issues he is speaking about will appeal to a great many Canadians who have grown tired of the sword fighting that passes for political discourse in this country.  Of course there is overt and hidden racism in Canada, but I believe even more Canadians could care less about a person's background if the person leading a party is talking about our values and building the Canada we know we could be.  It isn't that they will stop being racist, but that other things will trump it.

KenS

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

On the broader question, many of the people you are talking about are not in the NDP universe anyway.  Romeo's approach to politics and the kind of issues he is speaking about will appeal to a great many Canadians who have grown tired of the sword fighting that passes for political discourse in this country. 

Those two sentences are two entirely different things. The first one is what touches on the 'downsides' we are talking about.

I'm more than a bit rluctant to get into illustrating with examples how it works, but without going there bear these things in mind, all of which people know, but need to be taken together:

** racism is very very deep.

** and in many people- most- it 'operates' far from out in the open.

** our universe of voters is just as subject to that as other white people [and a lot of people of colour when it comes to First Nations].

Triggering a negative reaction in white people is all too easy- very often without the targets being aware in the slightest. Thay are not making a decision based on a concious assesment that includes the race of the person presented to them.

 

It would never be something like "Should this man be your Prime Minister?"

But a lot of the same people who would register a backlash on something like that against the perpetrators of the ad, would be unaware they are being negatively influenced by more subtle ads.

It works, and there is no basis for confidence that it would not work on voters in the NDP universe who would normally be receptive to Romeo's approach.

 

Considering how ugly racism is in Canada, I am surprised people are skeptical about this.

 

writer writer's picture

Compare and contrast, though, with the polarization available to Conservatives with the other candidates. And is Canada more racist than the U.S.?

KenS

But again, despite all that and because of that, there is every reason to have Romeo very prominent in the NDP.

Wearing down racism [if that is an appropriate term] is as subtle as is people deliberating using racism in non-overt ways.

Having Romeo in living rooms will help heal this country of the scars.

And following what BA says, people will like having their better selves catered to.

KenS

I'm not sure about 'more' [less] racist at all, as a concept.

But as far as the US and Canada go, they are more different in nature than they are more/less.

Racism in the US is very violenet, and very much on the surface. But the forms of it that can be played on without people knowing about it, I do not see one bit of difference with Canada.

And if anything, anti-aboriginal racism is uglier in canda than in the US.... although part of that MAY be more an effect of Candains being more likely to live close or close-ish to aboriginal communities.

KenS

This is making vey uneasy by the way. I'm not sure what to do about that, or exactly why.

writer writer's picture

My point: the U.S. elected someone that many thought was unelectable. He's president now.

My other point: I believe the other candidates are in fact *much easier* for the Conservatives to target with negative advertising.

Bookish Agrarian

double post sorry

Bookish Agrarian

Ken- Canada is still a deeply sexist society.  Does that mean we should also be warning off electing a woman next?

 

All candidates have negatives and positives.  All of them.  I am not going to let what some little old lady from Summerside wants to call Romeo in her head, or even out loud dictate who I will support for leader.  I am looking for a few things in my leadership choice, but my top two things are;

1.  who best represents my values and the values of the party?

2.  who is best able to be contrasted positively with Stephen Harper as offering a better way forward and can articulate it in a way that resonates in communities, big and small right across the country?

 

I am comfortable with all, but now one of the candidates, being able to answer that twofold test.  But on balance I beleive Romeo Saganash is the best situated to contrast with Harper and to articulate values I believe are important for the future of this country.  That's the way forward.

Aristotleded24

KenS wrote:
And they were willing to write off more seats than that in Quebec as a tradeoff for generalized benefits.

Definite benefits versus costs that are 'reasonable' even IF there is a large ramp-up of aboriginal votes in reaction.

Polarization works for the Conservatives. Of course not, if they go about it clumsily. But clumsy is not the only way, and if it results in 'controlled polarization'... works for them.

There's a difference. They never had that many seats in Quebec to begin with, and it was always a tough nut for them to crack. In Western Canada, they have pretty much maxed their seats, and have nowhere to go but down. Even if a racist campaign helps the Conservatives defend their seats, it certainly won't gain them any new ones, and I'm certain that an increase in turn-out of the Aboriginal vote will offset this. A slight or modest increase, and the 3 Saskatchewan seats I mentioned fall. A strong turn-out puts nearly every seat in Western Canada in play.

And you also glossed over the fact that I live in the region where this dynamic plays out particularly strongly.

KenS

I'm not warning off Romeos electability.

I think people are being sanguine about ehat would turn up.

My gut feeling is that concerns me in its own right- that it is not just about Romeo's electability.

And I'm not glossing over where you live A- maybe I'm just paranoid, but what needs to be looked at is not just the fact of racism and how 'much' there is. Its a question of how pervasive, the 'reach,' and how easily played on.

 

I'm certainly not contrasting Romeo to other candidates- there are criteria that matter too much for me that he just cannot meet, barring some different showing from them.

I haven't even considered what I think about the 'electability' question. To me Romeo is a rookie, and no amount of experience outside electoral politics can make up for that. So the electability question is kind of hypothetical to me; but my opinion is that if he could get as far as coming out front, racism  'just' would make him being the Leader complicated- not unelectable.

Aristotleded24

Ken, I haven't said anything comparing or contrasting Saganash to any of the other candidates. I am also well aware of how problematic racism is, especially where I live in Western Canada, but I feel as if you're talking to me as if I don't have any awareness of the situation at all.

Bookish Agrarian

 

There’s been something that has been bothering about this thread and the discussion.  It is based on a sense of despair that nothing will ever change.  That nothing can change.  I don’t believe it.  If I believed that nothing can ever be changed, even if it happens at a glacier pace, than I would never have joined the NDP, I would never have developed the progressive values I hold, I am not even sure I would ever venture outside my door.

 

I think back to my childhood where my mother waged a lonely battle, against not only her employer, but her union, for recognition of the equal value of her work.  I think of my childhood friend and his father both being given the same nickname because they were black and expected to take it as a joke in both the workplace and the classroom.  I think of the deep fear another friend had that others would find out he liked boys and then hugging him, both of us weeping for joy, moments after he married the love of his life.  I think of these things and I have to believe things have become a little better, not great, not what I or any of us would want, but just ever so slightly better.

 

I live in hope.  I refuse to give in to despair that we can’t change things.  I know that sexism, racism and homophobia and more still all exist and that they are pernicious, strong and evil foes.  But still I refuse to believe we can’t change.  I refuse to believe that fighting for change isn’t worth it.  I refuse to believe that the forces that would hold back sharing and celebrating our common humanity and our differences should be allowed to win because we have left the ice.  I won’t do it.  I can’t

 

Instead I will try to listen and learn from others and greet their experiences with an open heart.  Instead I will try to raise my children to believe in a future that is better and to understand it is going to take work to get there.  Instead I will try to live my life by my values, not my cultural baggage.  Instead I will choose to believe that a hand raised in greeting is better than a hand raised in anger.  Instead I will choose to believe that we can listen to the better angels of our nature.  Instead I will choose to believe in love, hope and optimism.

 

It won’t be easy.  There will be set backs along the way.  It will take longer to get to where we want and hope to be than we will like.  Sometimes victories will feel like defeats.  But it is the only way to true and lasting change.

 

Call me naive and hopeless, but I refuse to give into a sense of despair and let it define the future I want for my party, for my country and in the end for my family, friends and neighbours.  I believe we can make Canada better.  And I believe Romeo Saganash is the candidate most capable of defeating Stephen Harper in 2015.

 

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

I belive that too, Bookish A, but I don't agree with your analysis. There's been a reason he's being IGNORED in the media. You can debate that until the cows come home but it's true.

What do we do?

We keep questioning why?

Pardon my youth, but WTF?

I refuse to be naive and hopeless, real NDP'ers(not a purity test)should be enthused. What has he said that is so controversial? I saw your words in another thread and really appreciated them BA. We should expect so much of our leaders. Yes, Romeo talks slow, that's how elders speak. Canadians don't understand that. And that's where my premise for the thread comes from. I'm not naive, but I'm not angry. I'm hopeful, optomistic and full of love. That's how we come together. Hopefully, BA, we can come to some consensus that Romeo is being ignored to the benefit of others.

Benefit of others being my key words, if you get my drift.

Sorry for starting such a contentious thread but it is my firm belief, I'll get onto my second choice soon.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Lost a post. Ya, BA, it wasn't you I was addressing. Fuck...

The guy's been ignored as we can all see the women are being too. I almost felt bad for supporting Romeo at first, but like the reason I started this thread is to posssibly move support to Ashton or Nash if people are too racist to support Romeo.

No offence to other babbler's but the MSM slop seems to have been swallowed.

Aristotleded24

BA, to pick up on your point about living in hope, consider this:

Few people thought that the US would ever elect a black President within even our children's lifetimes. Yet we have all witnessed that. And it's true, old voting patterns and prejudices did rear their ugly head prior to that accomplishment. And white people overwhelmingly voted for McCain, with one important exception: those under 29 broke for Obama, and being relatively close to that age group, I can assure you that we don't care about skin colour. We've lived in several parts of the country and all over the world, we accept people's differences, and if you can appeal to us in the next election, our votes will be more than enough to take the NDP over the top.

Aristotleded24

RevolutionPlease wrote:
LI almost felt bad for supporting Romeo at first, but like the reason I started this thread is to posssibly move support to Ashton or Nash.

Those 3 individuals are on my short list for consideration.

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

BA, to pick up on your point about living in hope, consider this:

Few people thought that the US would ever elect a black President within even our children's lifetimes. Yet we have all witnessed that. And it's true, old voting patterns and prejudices did rear their ugly head prior to that accomplishment. And white people overwhelmingly voted for McCain, with one important exception: those under 29 broke for Obama, and being relatively close to that age group, I can assure you that we don't care about skin colour. We've lived in several parts of the country and all over the world, we accept people's differences, and if you can appeal to us in the next election, our votes will be more than enough to take the NDP over the top.

You just made my night. Thanks dudeéÉdudetee!

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