Hanif Shaikh is on facebook - the one that lists Jack as people who inspire him and used to work for Bell. I did not send a Friend request and you need one to actually read posts.
Got the "about" profiles up for Justin, Claire and Craig waiting for the winner so I can paste the link to my mother in messenger.
A Facebook page isn't a website...social media is fine and dandy, but it doesn't replace an actual website where you can get info on someone, especially if you're also trying to reach people who don't use Facebook.
Anyhow, yeah, I'm looking forward to the results too!
True,
Chomping at the bit for results. Glad that they did it this way - someone local who was active in the community.
I'm not much of a Twitter fan, but if you follow the #TorDan hashtag, you'll get updates on how things are going.
Oh wow - from what I'm reading on Twitter, they're just collecting the first round of ballots now! I think I'm not going to see rr until after midnight at this rate - the meeting started two hours ago, didn't it? :)
Thanks!
Will check during commercials. First episode of LMOTP starts in half an hour.
dup
Tonight will be win-lose for the NDP. The party will get an excellent candidate, and lose two other excellent candidates. If only there were three seats to nominate for tonight 
Its nice to see all thes great people seeking the NDP nomination in TD. Its a sign of strength for the party.
Definite agreement with the first sentence, but not really the second. It would be weird if there WEREN'T a lively nomination contest between heavy-hitter candidates for a vacant seat in such a safe riding. It's a sign that people see an opportunity to actually win.
It would be a sign of strength for the party if you had a bunch of accomplished people tripping all over themselves to be nominated as the candidate in some other party's stronghold riding.
I agree with Newfoundlander that equity considerations should be more important to the party than they are. And I would also like to see the NDP take seriously its commitment to gender equality when it comes to nominations. That said, I see from Craig Scott's materials that his partner is a guy, so equity-wise, he's not just another "white middle-aged male" candidate.
From what I can tell, it looks like Craig Scott has most of the Dipper Royalty and NGO bigwig endorsements in the riding sewn up, whereas Claire Prashaw, while she has a couple herself, has a lot more "ordinary residents" in her endorsements - young people, community activists, and people she has worked with and helped through the course of her constituency work for Jack.
I think those are the only two that we've received literature from, or at least that I've noticed. Justin Duncan has some info on his website but no list of endorsers that I could find (and you know, part of me kind of likes that). Hanif Shaikh, the other candidate, doesn't appear to have a campaign website, at least not one I'm finding with a quick google search.
Should be interesting to hear what happens tonight! I'm not at the meeting since I'm not a member, but RR is there, so I guess I'll hear soon what happened. :)
First ballot win for Craig Scott.
ETA: Sounds like an excellent choice. What's next for Prashaw, Duncan?
GREAT CHOICE! CONGRATS CRAIG! now the work begins to get this excellent candidate into parliament and onto the front benches.
Wow, that was quick. I kind of figured this would be the result considering all of Craig Scott's big endorsers.
Well, good luck to him - he seems like a decent guy.
There is a new Craig Scott thread in the Canadian politics section - fighting for first place with the 69th Federal Leadership thread.
There is a new Craig Scott thread in the Canadian politics section - fighting for first place with the 69th Federal Leadership thread.
Grant Gordon, a hopeful for the T-D Liberal nomination, put out a hilarious e-flyer.
http://www.keygordon.com/eblasts/grant_for_liberals/grant-liberal-nomina...
Depending on your point of view he's either brilliant, or very symbolic of the Liberals (two-faced is their stereotype after all), or doing the only sane thing you can do when you probably won't win - have a sense of humour and be visible (e.g. Nathan Cullen in the NDP race).
Kinda reminds me of when Greg Malone (CODCO) was the NDP candidate in a by-election in Newfoundland.
I think the NDP probably have the edge in this by-election. Although the riding was Liberal throughout the Chrétien years prior to Layton winning it, I think a lot of residual support for Layton will remain and go to the new NDP candidate. And while Liberal numbers have improved in Ontario since the last federal election, they are still not high enough to predict a Liberal comeback in former Toronto strongholds. The NDP also hold the riding provincially.
Still, the Liberals could have a decent showing. Unlike Michael Ignatieff who had no political skills or experience and didn't know much about the ridings in Ontario, Bob Rae knows every single one, particularly those in Toronto, from his days as both a federal NDP MP and as Ontario Premier.
As Bob Rae said at the Liberal convention this month when he was asked about the upcoming by-election, he knows Danforth pretty well since he used to represent that riding in its Broadview-Greenwood days when he was an NDP MP! So I think Bob Rae will make sure a good campaign is run, something I don't think Ignatieff could handle if he were still leader.
Yup, the question isn't will the NDP win the by-election, but by how much? Will the Liberals crack 20%? Will the Tories crack 10%? How will the Greens do?
The Greens are comatose- especially in Toronto, despite there being more of them there.
So I think Bob Rae will make sure a good campaign is run, something I don't think Ignatieff could handle if he were still leader.
No question Iggy was organizationaly clueless, and Booby is not. But it wont make any difference. Rae is the salve- at least for now- for the air war. But he cant fix what ails the LPC on the ground, what is left of it.
Ironically, Rae's by-election is the last time the centre put even a decent effort into a by campaign. Lamoreaux won on his own organizational savy and cachet, because that's all you get these days.
They wouldnt know how anyway, but dont look to the LPC or the Ontario PTA to be pouring cash into this longshot. They'll be looking for the best bang fro buck in getting a decent showing and at least not being shown up by the Cons, who it would be a surprise if they do not spend the limit.... which is much more in a by-election because the party is allowed to spend a lot of money on top of the riding campaign limit.
The Greens are comatose - especially in Toronto, despite there being more of them there.
But not in Toronto Danforth, their strongest riding in Toronto in last year's election, where Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu got 6.46%. Doesn't match the 13.21% Sharon Howarth got in 2008, but still kicking.
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu, their shadow cabinet climate change critic, is seeking the nomination again Feb. 5:
So are Emma Richardson (lecturing on global health policy at the University of Toronto while doing her Ph.D. in public health), and Ann Peel (founding co-chair of the Canadian Athletes Association). Not quite comatose.
I didnt say they have no pulse.
13% in 2008. 6.5% in 2011. Lucky to clear 3% in 2012... and the resources on the ground to match.
None of which means they cannot have meetings and nominations.
The Greens are comatose - especially in Toronto, despite there being more of them there.But not in Toronto Danforth, their strongest riding in Toronto in last year's election, where Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu got 6.46%. Doesn't match the 13.21% Sharon Howarth got in 2008, but still kicking.
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu, their shadow cabinet climate change critic, is seeking the nomination again Feb. 5:
So are Emma Richardson (lecturing on global health policy at the University of Toronto while doing her Ph.D. in public health), and Ann Peel (founding co-chair of the Canadian Athletes Association). Not quite comatose.
Green support is very soft... it tends to swell up if there is a preception that neither NDP nor Liberal is going in the right direction, but when push comes to shove, most Green voters will vote tactically to block a Conservative. Except for those hard-right-Green types (they do exist!).
My generally progressive friend lives in Toronto-Danforth and voted Green in both federal and provincial elections. He said that, knowing his riding would go NDP anyway, he wanted to express his support for the Greens. In the provincial election, he was upset with Horwath's bizarre populist platform (e.g. HST off home heating fuel) and also did not want to give the Liberals a free pass, so he voted Green too. But he admitted that in a riding with a serious risk of going Conservative, he would not vote Green.
seems to me that the Green Party had higher support in the polls and got more publicity back when they had no seats anywhere. Now that Elizabeth May is an MP its as if the Green Party is just some super-structure to support her being a quasi-Independent MP for Saanisch-Gulf Islands and in the other 307 ridings across Canada - that party really does not exist at all.
Well it was a concerted strategy - in 2008 the Green Party tried in every riding, but not hard enough in any particular riding. In 2011 they figured it was do-or-die - elect one MP or never see light again. So they focused hard on SGI and tried to avoid being responsible for splitting the vote elsewhere.
The Greens are comatose- especially in Toronto, despite there being more of them there.
So I think Bob Rae will make sure a good campaign is run, something I don't think Ignatieff could handle if he were still leader.
No question Iggy was organizationaly clueless, and Booby is not. But it wont make any difference. Rae is the salve- at least for now- for the air war. But he cant fix what ails the LPC on the ground, what is left of it.
Ironically, Rae's by-election is the last time the centre put even a decent effort into a by campaign. Lamoreaux won on his own organizational savy and cachet, because that's all you get these days.
They wouldnt know how anyway, but dont look to the LPC or the Ontario PTA to be pouring cash into this longshot. They'll be looking for the best bang fro buck in getting a decent showing and at least not being shown up by the Cons, who it would be a surprise if they do not spend the limit.... which is much more in a by-election because the party is allowed to spend a lot of money on top of the riding campaign limit.
The ground operations of the Liberal Party are already improving since last year's federal elections. And the Liberals remain particularly strong in Toronto, an area that the Ontario Liberals just swept a few months ago. During last fall's provincial election, the Federal liberals started to work more closely with the provincial liberals and to learn how they can turn their failures into successes like their provincial cousins. To what extent this will help in the Toronto-Danforth by-election is too early to tell, but I don't think the Liberals have to worry about the Conservatives overtaking them.
What's interesting is that until 2011, Layton wasn't able to break the 50% barrier in T-D, despite being party leader. In 2004, 2006, & 2008, Layton's victory was in the 44-48% range. It wasn't until the big orange crush in 2011 that he scored a huge victory and won with 60%.
Whatever the final numbers are in the T-D by-election, I suspect they will look something like those of the elections prior to 2011.
Jack's slowness in breaking 50% had everything to do with the strength of the Greens in the riding. And that was ironically helped by running against Jack: 'Jack we'll win anyway, it wont hurt him if I vote Green.'
The Green vote was dropping anyway, and with a new candidate people will not be saying that.
Mind you, the green vote is crumbling generally, not just for that local reason, and that will help the Liberals too. But the marginalizing of the Green's makes a substantial difference in the size of the feasible plurality [majority] attainable by the NDP.
And this is a by-election, the ground campaign means more. And even IF improving on the ground, that further disadvantages the Liberals, whoever runs for them.
Let's nor forget that around the time of the byelection, the ontario liberals are going to bring down a budget that is almost certain to be filled with some very unpopular cuts in the name of 'austerity" and that will not help them in a byelectipn.
Let's nor forget that around the time of the byelection, the ontario liberals are going to bring down a budget that is almost certain to be filled with some very unpopular cuts in the name of 'austerity" and that will not help them in a byelection.
(Thread drift) And the Ontario NDP will have to figure out how to hold their noses and vote for it. I hope somone is working out a face-saving scenario. But I doubt it can be made palatable enough that we want to take credit for improving it. So . . .? (end thread drift).
Jack's slowness in breaking 50% had everything to do with the strength of the Greens in the riding. And that was ironically helped by running against Jack: 'Jack we'll win anyway, it wont hurt him if I vote Green.'
The Green vote was dropping anyway, and with a new candidate people will not be saying that.
Mind you, the green vote is crumbling generally, not just for that local reason, and that will help the Liberals too. But the marginalizing of the Green's makes a substantial difference in the size of the feasible plurality [majority] attainable by the NDP.
And this is a by-election, the ground campaign means more. And even IF improving on the ground, that further disadvantages the Liberals, whoever runs for them.
I would agree the Green vote was a factor, but I don't think it was the determining factor. The main reason Jack didn't break 50% until his last election (and we saw the same thing in other ridings like Trinity-Spadina) is because until 2011, a large number of people were still voting Liberal.
As for the ground operation, it's hard to know how strong it will be until the actual election. The Liberals were able to win Winnipeg North and almost beat Julian Fantino in Vaughan, so the last 2 by-elections were not bad for the Libs. As I mentioned above, there have also been some improvements to ground operations since last May's election with people taking it more seriously than before and with the federal liberals learning some tools to success from the recent victory of their provincial Ontario cousins.
One advantage the Liberals will also have will be Bob Rae - he used to represent the riding himself and said at the convention last month that he will be taking a personal involvement in the race there, and will no doubt help the candidate campaign. Since the NDP do not yet have a leader in place, that will give Rae an advantage over Nycole Turmel in that area.
Whether that's enough to make a difference, remains to be seen.
Incidentally, as I have mentioned in the past, the Prime Minister should not be allowed to wait 6 months to call a by-election. This is something Ed Broadbent used to talk about as well. It is not right to a leave a riding vacant for so long without the people having representation. Harper usually waits until the last moment to call a by-election. As Broadbent and others have said, ridings should be filled much sooner than that, as they are in the British system.
I agree. I think that the timing of byelections should be depoliticized and put in the hands of the Chief Electoral Officer and that a date should automatically be set within a month of a vacancy occurring. In the UK when an MP dies or resigns - like clockwork the byelection happens 4 or 5 weeks later - presto! Why can't we do that here?
Jack's slowness in breaking 50% had everything to do with the strength of the Greens in the riding.
100% disagree.
I would agree the Green vote was a factor, but I don't think it was the determining factor. The main reason Jack didn't break 50% until his last election (and we saw the same thing in other ridings like Trinity-Spadina) is because until 2011, a large number of people were still voting Liberal.
100% agree.
As for the Liberal vote, Andrew Lang and his tactics were the entire cause of his collapse from 28% in 2008 to barely 18% in 2011, a mere 2% higher than the Conservative non-candidate, and judging from the tone at the door, the next Liberal candidate has alot of work cut out for them to blow the stench of that campaign away. And judging from the two nominees and the fairly silly, but hilariously ironic PR piece one of them has put out, it's not going to be that hard to point out to T-D voters that the Libs will do and say anything to anyone to get a vote. I half expected to see Adrianna pop up as the Liberal nominee, pulling a Paul Charbonneau and Katie Holloway, but i guess post-electiion breakfast with Andrew didn't work out ;-)
Debater, the Ontario Liberals may have done well in Toronto, but it's a little much to say they "swept" the city. To pick just two ridings I know of: In YSW, the result was as hairy for Albanese as it was in 2007, and in Scarborough Southwest, the NDP took over 30% of the vote with Berardinetti doing well to just hold his vote steady. If the PCs had been stronger, the soft blue Liberals would have defected to them, almost certainly putting the NDP over the top in YSW, and making things decidedly uncomfortable for Lorenzo. Relying on one of your opponents being comatose or tripping over their shoelaces is hardly a sustainable long-term strategy, nor is it a sign of real strength.
As for the Liberal vote, Andrew Lang and his tactics were the entire cause of his collapse from 28% in 2008 to barely 18% in 2011, a mere 2% higher than the Conservative non-candidate,
Not the entire cause, to be fair. After all, the collapse more or less corresponded with the collapse of the Liberals Toronto-wide...
March 12th is the date.
The Liberals will huff and puff and then...
Byelection called for March 12:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/05/layton-riding-byelection.html
The riding represents a diverse section of the city. Affluent neighbourhoods sit next to co-operatives and social housing. The area also includes large Chinese, Greek and South Asian communities, whose support will be key for the NDP to hang on to the seat.
Interesting. As of 2006 it was 17% Chinese ethnic origin, 14% Chinese mother tongue, 11% Chinese home language, 5% South Asian, 5% black, 8% other visible minority, 66% not visible minority, English home language 73%. The Greek-ethnic-origin community is 8%, Greek mother-tongue 6%, Greek home language 3%. French ethnic origin was also 8%.
To get to work, 44.5% took public transit, 38% drove, 5% were motor vehicle passengers, 7% walked, 4% bicycle.
www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/cen06/profiles/detail_b/FED35094.xls
(Why do I have to go to BC Stats to get Stats Can figures?)
The Liberals will huff and puff and then...
Blow their own (seats in the) House down?
Andrew Keyes, a communications consultant who previously made an unsuccessful bid to win the federal CPC nomination for Oak Ridges-Markham in the 2007, is running for the Conservative Party of Canada.
http://www.insidetoronto.com/news/local/article/1292536--toronto-danfort...
I'm a member of the Board of Directors of the Cornell Rate Payers Association in Markham.
http://www.keyes.ca/Welcome.html
Just what Danforth needs.
The Conservatives nominated communications consultant Andrew Keyes at a closed-door meeting on Jan. 27.
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1126543--by-election-to-fill-jack-la...
But never mentioned this until several days later. Oddly, they "announced" the nomination today (Sunday), but it was known Jan. 30.
Was there actually a nomination meeting?
Democratic nominations: why is Germany more democratic than Canada?
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2009/10/democratic-nominations-why-is-german...
You can't turn on the television without hearing of a candidate being appointed to run for parliament somewhere in Canada.In Germany, this would be illegal.
But isn't Germany the place, you may ask, where half the MPs are elected on a party list? Aren't they appointed? And anyway, can't parties do whatever they like?
No, and no. Germany has laws to guarantee democratic nominations.
Why can't Canada have laws making nominations democratic?
Oh dear: this the Tories effectively waving the white flag already. Many Toronto MPs live outside their ridings, but Markham?! That's stretching it a bit much. But hey-ho, the campaign will be fully funded, and the Tory campaign manager will have plenty of signs and lit to give out to the few souls who drift in through the campaign office's doors.
Given what happened in the neighbouring Toronto Centre byelection, Andrew Keyes might as well not be running for the seat so much as he's running for the Senate;-) (Or for that matter, practicing for a 2015 federal run at home, whether against John McCallum or otherwise)
In 1982 Tony Blair ran for Labour in a by election in a safe Tory seat. He came in a very distant third. In 1983 he was given the nomination in a safe Labour seat.
Word on the "Liberal" street is that Karen Mock wants the seat.
ok, apparently its now the 19th?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2012/02/by-election...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-lagging-in-by-elec...
“I think people feel that this riding is a NDP stronghold, but you know what, it was actually a Jack Layton riding,” said Carolyn Bennett, Liberal MP for the Toronto riding St. Paul’s. “We’re going to mount a tremendous platform to get it back. It’s very important for us as we continue to rebuild our party.”
--------
Really? Nice spin. looks like federally out of the last 32 years, 16 were NDP, 16 Liberal, and since the Provincial boundaries were aligned to be the same as the Federal, the entire 12 years since 1999 have been NDP, and Ward 30 in the southern half of the riding, has been held by variously by Layton, Tabuns, and now Paula Fletcher since 2003. Looks to me like the depth of NDP support goes considerably beyond Jack. might want to brush up on your riding research there Carolyn.
and what is with this business of "taking back" the riding? all the Lib candidates for the area have used it since 2004 when Mills was ousted. Word to the Liberals...you never "owned" this riding any more than the NDP does now. Whomever is chosen by the eligible voters of Toronto-Danforth has the privilige and honour to represent us, not own us. I've always felt that this says more about the LIberal attitude to the area than anything else.
note to T-D voters...the Liberal candidates at both provincial and federal levels have supported various projects that the neighbourhood has rejected, like the Smart Centres' plan on Lakeshore (WalMart) and the Portlands Energy Centre (which was a provincial fait-accompli, and outright mocked and dismissed local opposition), and still not clarified, the massive power line corridor that will be needed to fullfill the provincial Liberals' nuclear power plan/ambitions.
Word on the "Liberal" street is that Karen Mock wants the seat.
Who??? Her claim to fame is as a leader of B'nai B'rith and TD is something like 2% Jewish (and most of them are probably NOT the kind of Jews who are into BB's pro-Likud stances).
If the Liberals think they can make a play for TD by running a parachute from Thornhill whose biggest claim to fame is being an pologist for the Netanyahu gov't - they are even more screwed up as a party than i thought!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-lagging-in-by-elec...
“I think people feel that this riding is a NDP stronghold, but you know what, it was actually a Jack Layton riding,” said Carolyn Bennett, Liberal MP for the Toronto riding St. Paul’s.
But I and others have already topsy-turveyed that argument; you see, you may think it was once a Liberal stronghold, but you know what, it was actually a Dennis Mills riding...
Actually I think she left Bnai birth more than 15 years ago. For the last five years or more she has been the head of the Canada Race Relations Foundation and served as Chair of the Canadian Multiculturalism Advisory Committee.Word on the "Liberal" street is that Karen Mock wants the seat.
Who??? Her claim to fame is as a leader of B'nai B'rith and TD is something like 2% Jewish (and most of them are probably NOT the kind of Jews who are into BB's pro-Likud stances).
If the Liberals think they can make a play for TD by running a parachute from Thornhill whose biggest claim to fame is being an pologist for the Netanyahu gov't - they are even more screwed up as a party than i thought!
ok, apparently its now the 19th?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2012/02/by-election...
"Administrative error?" Or someone finally noticed that March 12 was during March Break, when some higher-income (Liberal) voters will be away? Harper is trying to help the Liberals?
Sounds like the Liberals are in disarray and will probably come a distant third when the votes are tabulated.
I agree this riding used to be Liberal AND it was Bob Rae's riding 30 years ago...for those reasons I think that the Liberals have to be considered HEAVY favourites in Toronto-Danforth. This byelection should be a slam dunk for the Liberals. They should be able to run a yellow dog in TD and win. If the Liberals can't win Toronto-Danforth then they cannot win anywhere. Toronto-Danforth = Do or doe for the Liberals
well, i for one am feeling very positive! about the Liberal chances in the riding. If past performance is any indication of a trend, they should be able to beat Lang's 18% by a long shot, and score a solid 12-15%! ;-)
