''
NDP Leadership #89
Thu, 2012-02-09 17:35
#1
NDP Leadership #89
Thu, 2012-02-09 17:37
#2
Thu, 2012-02-09 17:41
#3
Lou Arab
CTV is reporting that Romeo Saganash is dropping out of the race.
RichardMadan Richard Madan
#NDP Romeo Saganash to quit #NDPldr race, CTV News has learned #cdnpoli
Thu, 2012-02-09 17:51
#4
If true, I'll be quite disappointed.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:03
#5
Catchfire
Reposting Lou's helpful list of leadership candidates and their endorsements:
Ashton (5)Herself
Choquette
Hughes, Carol
Larose
RaynaultCullen (4)
Himself
Atamenko, Alex
Donnelly, Fin
Masse, BrianDewar (5)
Himself
Angus, Charlie
Duncan, Linda
Gravelle, Claude
Mathyssen, IreneMulcair (40)
Himself
Aubin, Robert
Ayala
Blanchette, Denis
Brahmi
Brosseau, Ruth Ellen
Chicoine
Cleary, Ryan
Davies, Don
Day
Dube
Dusseault
Genest
Genest-Jourdain
Groguhe
Harris, Dan
Hassainia
Jacob
Kellway, M
Lapointe
Latendresse
LeBlanc
Marston, Wayne
Morin, Marc-Andre
Morin, Marie-Claude
Nantel
Nicholls
Nunez-Melo
Papillon
Patry
Peclet, Eve
Perreault
Pilon
Rafferty, John
Ravignat, Matthew
Rousseau, Jean
Sellah
Thibeault, Glen
Toone
TremblayNash (9)
Herself
Boutin-Sweet
Garrison, Randall
Liu, Laurin
Michaud, Elaine
Minh-Thu Quach
Morin, Dany
Sullivan, Mike
Savioe, DanielleSaganash (3)
Himself
Labelle
Moore, ChristineTopp (12)
Boivin, F
Borg, Charmane
Boulerice, Alexandre
Charlton, Chris
Crowder, Jean
Davies, Libby
Giguere, Alain
Godin, Yvon
Morin, Isabelle
Sandhu, Jasbir
Sims, Jenny
Stewart, KennedyUndeclared MPs (24):
Allen, Malcolm
Benskin, Tyrone
Bevington, Dennis
Blanchette-Lamothe
Caron
Cash, Andrew
Chisholm, Robert
Christopherson, David
Chow, Oliva
Comartin, Joe
Cote
Dore Lefebvre
Freeman
Harris, Jack
Hyer
Julian, Peter
Laverdiere
Leslie, Megan
Mai
Martin, Pat
Sitsabaiesan, R
Stoffer, Peter
Tremblay
Turmel, Nicole
Observations:
Unless some MPs change sides, or one contestent bows out, Mulcair has a lock on a purality of endorsements.
Among MPs elected before 2011, the standings are as follows:
Ashton: 2
Cullen: 4
Dewar: 5
Mulcair: 5
Nash: 2
Saganash: 0
Topp: 4
Not declared/undecided: 13Quebec MPs:
Ashton: 3
Cullen: 0
Dewar: 0
Mulcair: 33
Nash: 5
Saganash: 3
Topp: 5
Not declared/undecided: 9Women:
Ashton: 3
Cullen: 0
Dewar: 2
Mulcair: 12
Nash: 6
Saganash: 1
Topp: 7
Not declared/undecided: 8
ETA: Just saw Lou's deflating news. Oh no.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:16
#6
[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/saganash-to-bow-out... Free Press[/url] is reporting the move may have been prompted by illness in his family and that he is unlikely to endorse right away.
Terrible shame, no other candidate could have produced [url=http://www.saganash.ca/saganash/the-issues/all-our-relations/]this piece[/url] released by the Saganash campaign today.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:31
#7
saganash is out :(
http://www.globalnews.ca/romeo+saganash+to+drop+out+of+ndp+leadership+ra...
a real shame, he was my 3rd choice. a very fine man who will make an excellent critic and minister.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:32
#8
Such a shame. Saganash is/was one of the strongest candidates in the race.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:40
#9
dacckon
I have my criticisms and opinions as I do of all the candidates, but regardless of that I strongly believe that he will be a great cabinet minister when we win government. I highly look forward to who he and his mp supporters will back later on in the race.
I also am urged to note that Niki Ashton has the least amount of funds. I am resisting the urge to point out the weird implications some posters are making, especially in the last thread. But then again its a bit of a common practice here eh?
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:47
#10
Its very sad to have him drop out...I think he enriched the race.
It seems very par for the course that some people drop out of these big multi-candidate contests...remember the Liberal race in 2006 and how Hedy Fry, Carolyn Bennet and Maurizio Bevilaqua all dropped in and dropped out or how the BC NDP contest went from having 6 candidates to 3 in the end.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:51
#11
dacckon
I think there was four at the end of the BC NDP race. Larsen, Horgan, Dix, Farnsworth if I recall from memory.
Thu, 2012-02-09 18:55
#12
M. Spector
I am pointing out that Nash is courting certain elements of the NDP in order to enhance her chances at winning. Rather than foucs on a vision for the party that attracts a larger group of voters, she is saying "You can trust me because I am a feminist, a union leader, and a supporter of progressive causes." This is "identity" politics, and yes it is crass because the argument is grossly simplistic.
Proclaiming oneself to be a supporter of progressive causes is "identity politics"? Not by any understanding of the term that I have ever encountered.
Every candidate brings unique qualities and experiences to the table. There are many social and economic problems that do not impact everyone equally, or at all, but have disproportionate effect on certain groups rather than others. If a candidate is a former union leader, and has particular expertise and understanding in that field, why should that not be advanced as a plus - especially at a time when organized labour is in for a tough fight over the austerity agenda of Harper and the provincial and municipal governments?
The party's "vision", as expressed by all candidates, should include a program for dealing with matters of particular interest to women, labour, aboriginals, immigrants, queers, artists, parents, and a host of other segments of society.
If Island Red has a problem with that, I'm sure there's a place for her/him in the Liberal Party.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:02
#13
If Romeo's out, I'm crushed.
I remember his first announcement was reported as being an endorsement of Topp, but he changed his mind overnight. So I'll wait until tomorrow to be crushed.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:05
#14
If Saganash drops out, the only candidate I see standing between Mulcair and the nomination is Nash. I think the backroom boy bio is too much of a hobble for Topp. Dewar is a paper tiger because of his poor French. Cullen is unpalatable because of his bad idea of joint nominations and shoot first, reflect later approach to policy and debates. Singh lacks in experience, his policy points are hit and miss, and his French is below that of most of the candidates. Ashton has not had a lot of (policy or strategic) substance to her campaign. Her speaking style would also benefit from the occassional pause to breathe. First ballot victory for Mulcair?
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:08
#15
one wonders to which candidate saganash's supporters would rally. if indeed 100,000 members will vote (which i can't but doubt), romeo could well have had the support of 2000-5000 members, including 2 mps (and not including himself). i don't see a natural candidate to whom this support would fall, though i'm near sure that singh and dewar would be the least likely beneficiaries, with cullen right there with them.
guesses? i'm thinking some goes to mulcair and some to topp, with nash picking up a sprinkling and a non-trivial amount to ashton.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:12
#16
If Romeo's out, I'm crushed.
Me too. There are people I signed up for the first time, because they wanted to support Saganash.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:15
#17
Saganash was on my shortlist. I'm not sure where his support will go. I know he was in the top two or three for a lot of people here.
I hope that he continues to raise his profile in the party and the country.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:15
#18
First ballot victory for Mulcair?
In a seven way race I think that is extraordinarily unlikely to happen.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:17
#19
I hope the party finds a way to give Saganash some star billing at the convention - maybe have him give an intrudctory welcoming speech and/or chair some of the proceedings.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:22
#20
Pogo
If Romeo's out, I'm crushed.
me too
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:26
#21
yeah, howard, things are looking good for mulcair. his competion for that final ballot slot should be much more clear after the french language debate. singh and ashton have no chance to win, and dewar is almost at that level. i'm thinking that this debate is where wildman cullen (whose french is relatively poor) and nash (whose french is weird) will either propel themselves into contention in quebec (feels like both have some decent momentum) or sink utterly. i don't see much in between to be had there. also bear in mind that this will be quebec's introduction to brian topp - if nash somehow overperforms, topp will have that much more trouble reaching the final ballot for the face-off with mulcair.
if more candidates do drop out, i'd hope that singh is the next to go. now that most of the members have been signed up and the arguments presented, he doesn't really add anything to the race. i'd say the same about ashton but i'm guessing that people on here would jump all over me. dewar, by contrast, needs to stay in the race as the generic white guy from ontario, as does cullen to keep on with his role as the kooky western populist.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:35
#22
dacckon
I don't think the generalizations of "kooky western populist" and "generic white guy from ontario" are accurate descriptions of the candidates. Nash's French is fine.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:38
#23
I don't see why Singh would drop out. He wants to be influential. His people have signed up a lot of people in Sikh temples etc...if he dropped out most of those people would probably not bother voting at all. If he stays in, those people will fill in ballots and will also preference a second choice - especially if Singh lets it be known what his recommendation is - if you get my drift.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:39
#24
I havent read what Romeo wrote, and I'm jusat processing hearing this. But I'm terribly dissapointed, to say the least.
I'm sure Romeo has compelling reasons. But I can still be really dissapointed just with the fact that he was not in this to the end.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:43
#25
Forget about Martin Singh dropping out. And really, why should he?
For that matter, at the most elementary level, why should the occasion of one candidate unfortunately leaving the race lead to questions of who else could be turfed while we are at it?
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:45
#26
This is just hugely disappointing.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:46
#27
No one is suggesting that anyone be "turfed" - just specualting on who might decide to "cut their losses" and drop out before the end. Ultimately it is the candidates decision and no one else's
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:48
#28
dewar, by contrast, needs to stay in the race as the generic white guy from ontario, as does cullen to keep on with his role as the kooky western populist.
This makes sense to me. The false consensus, Ontario=Canada crowd need someone to vote for and Dewar is the perfect "white bread" (sorry for the inane Ontario lingo) candidate to give comfort to the blindered crowd. I'm sure he has signed up plenty.
I didn't think of Cullen as the kooky western populist before, but the hat fits. His joint nomination scheme is something straight out of the imagination of the countless Western populist parties that spring up and disappear ever second election. He is definitely a western populist more of the leftist variety and I'm less surprised a politician like him was able to win over so many old Reform voters in order to win Skeena-Bulkley Valley. He is doing the party a minor favor by attracting so many soft supporters to the membership and keeping the Liberal-infatuated media half tuned in to the race (the other half of their attention span seems to be for ex-Liberal Mulcair).
I would be stunned if Ashton dropped. This race has never seemed to be about winning for her, just advancing her profile. To that end, nothing augurs better than exceeding (super low) expectations on the first ballot or staying in the race as long as you can get some (relatively) free publicity. Still, who knows.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:50
#29
This is just hugely disappointing.
Very much so. I think I am just going to hang out in the corner with JeffWells and hope it isn't true.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:51
#30
Of all the candidates left, I would expect Dewar to drop out for having piss poor French. But we'll see how he performs on Sunday.
The smaller the race gets, the better our chance of the debates showing some real contrasts.
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:52
#31
"No one is suggesting that anyone be "turfed" - just specualting on who might decide to "cut their losses" and drop out before the end."
Thats a charitable read of
if more candidates do drop out, i'd hope that singh is the next to go. now that most of the members have been signed up and the arguments presented, he doesn't really add anything to the race.
but enough said
Thu, 2012-02-09 19:59
#32
If Romeo's out, I'm crushed.
Me too. There are people I signed up for the first time, because they wanted to support Saganash.
That's also been my experience. I'm not even sure who my second choice would be yet :/
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:08
#33
I hope the party finds a way to give Saganash some star billing at the convention - maybe have him give an intrudctory welcoming speech and/or chair some of the proceedings.
If he does drop, they should give Saganash the lead-off speech at the Layton tribute.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:09
#34
I hope that Romeo does not feel compelled to make more than the briefest of statements tommorow.
He has obvioulsy been torn and buffeted. Unless he is mostly relieved at the moment, the man needs a break.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:10
#35
I'm glad Romeo won the Babble primary on the "Who will u vote for" thread. He certainly has earneda lot of respect and affection in the party.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:12
#36
I think Singh has added a great deal to the race. The NDP in the last election did not mention an actual pharmacare plan in their platform. Singh was the first candidate to really push for this in this campaign, and others have caught on. Further, the NDP in the last election campaigned on taking "practical first steps to reward the job creators [small business]" via reducing the small business tax rate from 11% to 9%. Singh is proof of the appeal of the NDP to small business-people. The fact that Singh is a both a professional in health-care, and a small businessman, and is firmly espousing the social-democratic vision of the NDP (often referencing Tommy Douglas on his site) I think contributes a great deal to this race.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:21
#37
If Romeo's out, I'm crushed.
Me too. There are people I signed up for the first time, because they wanted to support Saganash.
That's also been my experience. I'm not even sure who my second choice would be yet :/
And I'd just add to that, if Romeo is out, then other camps can do their own candidates a favour by giving Saganash supporters time to grieve before turning on the romance. Because it'll be a huge negative for the team that doesn't.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:25
#38
I think Singh has added a great deal to the race. The NDP in the last election did not mention an actual pharmacare plan in their platform. Singh was the first candidate to really push for this in this campaign, and others have caught on. Further, the NDP in the last election campaigned on taking "practical first steps to reward the job creators [small business]" via reducing the small business tax rate from 11% to 9%. Singh is proof of the appeal of the NDP to small business-people. The fact that Singh is a both a professional in health-care, and a small businessman, and is firmly espousing the social-democratic vision of the NDP (often referencing Tommy Douglas on his site) I think contributes a great deal to this race.
Singh has given the NDP major credibility by having a "small business" candidate in the race.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:32
#39
Yeah, even though I think Singh's message is kinda off, I do think his heart is in the right place. I just think that when you say "we're not anti-business" it has a way of reminding people that some people do think you're anti-business. Better to walk the walk on this one.
I'm getting to know a lot of small business owners around the city, and a lot of them are very progressive. There are Conservatives and Liberals too, but it's far from a monolithic bloc. I'd like to think the NDP's fight for the little guy includes the small business owner, who innovates and moves things forward, and is close with the small team he employs.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:45
#40
“It is impossible to run a winning campaign as the favourite second choice. People send you good wishes, but they don't send their money,” he said.
I hate fundraising. But it's one of those realities that are a part of politics as we know it. Probably keeps a lot of great people out of politics.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:52
#41
The Globe and Mail has a story on Saganash bowing out that is more definitive than the other headlines I've seen. Apparently he was initially going to work for the Topp campaign but then decided to go it on his own. Given that he has rather vigorously campaigned against Topp's proposal to create a new tax bracket for those earning more than $250,000/year, it will be interesting to see where his support falls. The article does say that "he did speak about eventually joining another campaign after his own bid failed to gain traction and enough funds." So, he will throw his support behind someone eventually.
Thu, 2012-02-09 20:58
#42
writer
"Apparently he was initially going to work for the Topp campaign ..."
Apparently? According to? I guess I'll have to read the piece, but I'm already smelling shit.
I'll also simply note that Romeo Saganash was the second person to enter this race. Niki Ashton, I believe, was the last. So that might have some relevance with Q4 funding assessments, yes?
I could be mistaken. Still coming off the drugs from surgery, and affected by painkillers since.
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:22
#43
From that Globe story:
Mr. Saganash, a Cree leader who was first elected to the House of Commons on May 2, was close to joining the team of strategist Brian Topp before he decided to launch his own underdog bid last September, NDP sources said.
I remember hearing that too. Something more or less like that. Which means exactly nothing other than it was a rumour around at the time.
Dont read anything into it being in the story now other than the obvious: stirring the pot with a rumour that a reporter filed away months ago is 'good copy', and who knows what it might turn up. It's their stock in trade.
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:26
#44
The article does say that "he did speak about eventually joining another campaign after his own bid failed to gain traction and enough funds." So, he will throw his support behind someone eventually.
First there is the question whether Romeo said that. And even if he did, he may not feel the same next week. He'll decide in due time.
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:38
#45
The rumours were that Saganash would endorse Topp but then he announced he would run.
ETA: "Google English" version (note the article date is Sept 15, 2011)
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:39
#46
dewar, by contrast, needs to stay in the race as the generic white guy from ontario, as does cullen to keep on with his role as the kooky western populist.
This makes sense to me. The false consensus, Ontario=Canada crowd need someone to vote for and Dewar is the perfect "white bread" (sorry for the inane Ontario lingo) candidate to give comfort to the blindered crowd. I'm sure he has signed up plenty.
What a completely jackass kind of comment and insulting to a lot of good people supporting Dewar. No wonder I have given up on this place. Dewar brings a lot of the table, unfortunetly a facility in french isn't one of those things, or he would be doing a lot better. But dismissing him is such a way is absoultely offensive.
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:48
#47
writer
I had surgery today. Anyone post Romeo Saganash's platform release here? If so, I must have missed it. Well, please enjoy this statement by an historic candidate, starved of financial and other forms of support. Incredibly inspiring. But yes, let's just move on to speculation about tomorrow's announcement, and ignore today's! Fairly typical during this campaign, I must say.
I am now getting messages from mainstream hacks who never contacted me until this moment. Ah yes, I am replying. Perhaps not as they anticipated.
All Our Relations: Thoughts on Canadian Leadership.
I encourage babblers to read this, and reflect deeply on it.
Edited to add: Thank you DSloth. Good to see your link.
Yesterday I tweeted: "First aboriginal person to run for party in HoC. Just about poorest campaign. As in the country, so in the #NDPldr race. Brutal."
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:50
#48
I'm very disappointed Saganash has had to drop out. Canada's is changing before our very eyes but we often don't seem to see the changes. Any party that wants to be a credible player in Canada's political future is going to have to make some serious space in the leadership area for our visible minorities. We are way too white and no longer representative of the communities in which we live. Maybe we need some affirmative action plans in this area.
Thu, 2012-02-09 21:54
#49
dewar, by contrast, needs to stay in the race as the generic white guy from ontario, as does cullen to keep on with his role as the kooky western populist.
This makes sense to me. The false consensus, Ontario=Canada crowd need someone to vote for and Dewar is the perfect "white bread" (sorry for the inane Ontario lingo) candidate to give comfort to the blindered crowd. I'm sure he has signed up plenty.
What a completely jackass kind of comment and insulting to a lot of good people supporting Dewar. No wonder I have given up on this place. Dewar brings a lot of the table, unfortunetly a facility in french isn't one of those things, or he would be doing a lot better. But dismissing him is such a way is absoultely offensive.
yeah. It was needlessly mean but I am fed up with Dewar. Maybe it's time for a self-imposed babble vacation.
Thu, 2012-02-09 22:09
#50
Thu, 2012-02-09 22:11
#51
It's a bit of a chicken and egg problem. If we had more prominent visible minorities as MPs, we'd have more support among visible minorities. But if we had more support among visible minorities, we'd see more prominent visible minorities as MPs. There has to be a symbiotic relationship between the members and the leaders. The best thing you can do is reach out to friends and communities who you think might be sympathetic to an NDP message. For what it's worth, I see a pretty ethically diverse set of people supporting the NDP on my facebook, but I live in Toronto.