Toronto-Danforth byelection - 4

So I just went looking for the Gordon ad that was witty and cute to show it to my family. Apparently it was a little too cute for the real election. It's been pulled. There's still the CBC article that shows much of it, but the original link goes to a 404 error. And this link pulls up with blanks for the images. But, the ALT tags were still there...so here's the text in case you missed it the first time:

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Grant Gordon for the Liberal Nomination Get me on the ballot. Hey Dippers, Grits, Tories, Greens and Non-voters—there’s a by-election coming up in Toronto-Danforth to elect our new Member of Parliament. Whatever your political stripe, help Grant Gordon win the Liberal Party’s Nomination. Here’s why. 

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Dear NDPers, In the upcoming by-election, you guys are going to wipe up. But why go through this elaborate process without a spirited debate? I’m the ONLY Liberal nominee who can push the NDP and hold it accountable. Help get me on the ballot, and I’ll create intelligent dialogue. (And don’t worry, I’m not a threat. The NDP owns this riding.)

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Dear Liberals, Pay no attention to that last paragraph. We can win this thing. But only with a fresh, new voice. Get me on the ballot and I’ll prove the Libs are rebuilding from the ground up. I live on Logan with Gill Deacon; my kids go to Withrow; and I’m passionate about making our riding—and the world—a better place.

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Dear Tories, Do you really want to see those pinko commie bike-riding NDPers take this riding in a walk? No. You want to see them sweat. Help me get nominated and I’ll go after their economic policy. I believe taking care of profits is just as important as taking care of people and the planet. You can’t have sustainability without all three.

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Dear Greens, I’m not green. I’m verdant green. Ask Elizabeth. She’ll vouch for me. I’ve spent the last 10 years helping environmental companies and NGOs make the world a healthier place. (I’m the guy who created the FLICK OFF campaign.) Help get me on the ballot and I’ll rally the people of our riding to take positive action.

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Dear Non-voters, You’re the biggest constituency out there. Why don’t you vote? Because you hate careerist politicians? Because there’s no real choice? Because no one speaks for you? I get why you don’t vote. But what if an authentic person got into politics—someone who actually listened more than he talked?

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Dear Rhinos, Your party is a pathetic, hollow shell of what it once was. Your late founder Cornelius the First, that visionary rhino from the Granby zoo, must be rolling in his grave. Where are you guys?!! If you help get me on the ballot and I win, I promise to give every family in Toronto-Danforth a goat.

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You can’t vote for Grant if you don’t register. All joking aside, I’m dead serious. To vote for me to become the candidate for the Liberals, you have to join the Party. Joining a party sounds scary, but all it means is that you pay ten bucks and your name goes on a confidential list. If you’re tired of all the rhetoric you hear during election time, get me on the ballot. Registration ends soon, so please do it now.

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To register, go to action.liberal.ca/en/membership.

Like me: facebook.com/GrantGordonLiberal

To volunteer or donate: [email protected]

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So, why did it get pulled from the internet? A little too real? We'll see how the Libs package him shortly.

From my perspective – a spear-carrier on the Scott campaign – the Liberals have been very, very slow out of the gate. There have been campaign signs on the subway for Scott for weeks, as it wasn't exactly a secret that a byelection was imminent. By having a nomination meeting AFTER the byelection was called, the Liberals look disorganized, possibly even slightly amateurish. The NDP has the jump on Liberals in signs - plenty of orange signs out, and I suspect plenty more to come. Even after a Liberal sign blitz yesterday (with the added bad luck of the ground being frozen), I think Scott will have a clear advantage, even before the sign crews ramping up.

I think edmund is right. That the Liberals were having a somewhat hard time even getting the easy stuff lined up. Doesn't have the look of a deep enough crew that is ready and chomping to do everything it takes.

I know that when we dont have everything ready to go in a by-election where we have a strong shot... I take that as most likely a terminally bad sign. [As in the case in Cumberland Colchester when Bill Casey resigned with tons of warning.]

Right now, I'm on a telephone town hall hosted by Tabuns and Craig Scott.  I'm not crazy about these things but what the heck, I just put it on speaker phone, treat it like background noise, tune in the interesting stuff, tune out the boring stuff.  But I guess it's a way to see how the candidate connects with people.

I was amused, however by the "poll" they took when I was first connected to the call.  I don't remember the exact wording, but there was some sort of preamble to the question and then the question went something like, Do you think Stephen Harper is leading the country in the right direction?  Press 1 if you say no, and press 2 if you say yes.  Don't forget!  Press 1 if you think Stephen Harper is leading the country in the wrong direction!  Probably a slight exaggeration, but such an glaringly obvious push poll.  And shockingly, 82% of respondents said yes, Stephen Harper is leading the country in the wrong direction!  Gee, what a meaningful poll!

I really wish politicians (of all stripes) would use the polling feature on telephone town halls to actually get useful information from the people they're calling.  It's an amazing tool.  Why not ask people a real question instead of treating us like morons?

thomaus, you can find that ad here.  I was looking for it a couple of nights ago, not having seen it yet myself.

janfromthebruce, I'm glad you don't think I'm a moran. :D

As for suggesting better questions - I don't really care enough to go out of my way to think up questions for them.  I wouldn't bother with coming up with questions just for the sake of asking questions.  If I were planning the calls, I'd be asking myself what kind of real information I want to get from people that could be gathered using that polling feature - or maybe something that makes people think you're actually looking for real information or guidance from them.

farnival wrote:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin

The article contains an interesting hypothetical about the NDP's leadership contest:

Quote:

But the poll also found that Liberal fortunes would rise in the riding if Thomas Mulcair, an NDP MP from Quebec vying for party leadership, was at the helm, and if Justin Trudeau led the Liberal party.

Although Scott would still win by more than 50 per cent, NDP popularity would decline somewhat under those two circumstances.

Though it's not clear if they're talking about two separate scenarios (Liberal fortunes rising if Mulcair is leader or if Trudeau is leader), or if both at the same time (liberal fortunes rising if both Muclair and Trudeau were the leaders of their respective parties).

But Muclair hurting the NDP?  Interesting.  I wonder if the poll considered any of the other leadership contenders?

Of course that poll asked about Justin Trudeau as a hypothetical Liberal leader the night before his act of self-immolation with his comments about Quebec. If there was EVER any chance of Justin becoming liberal leader for the 2015 election - that chnace has now totally vanished. He will now be persona non grata in the liberal party.

a random question about mulcair vs trudeau?  the media types are really lame.

That's why I'm curious - did they ask people about multiple scenarios (how would you vote if Topp were the leader? Nash? etc.) and Muclair/Trudeau was the only data-point that saw anything worth reporting (a dip in NDP support) or was it just these two?

Makes sense to ask about Muclair - he's the front-runner and likely future leader, but the Liberals really aren't discussing the leadership at all right now.  And seeing how this was a by-election poll, not a NDP leadership poll, there really wasn't any need to get too in-depth into people's leadership choices.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/15/ndp-support-still-strong-in-layt...

the Liberals are sounding more than a little desperate in their repetitive messaging:

"The poll numbers put NDP candidate Craig Scott ahead by 61% compared to Liberal candidate Grant Gordon’s 19%..."

-snip-

"“...Essentially the riding is Liberal,” said Mr. Mills, dismissing any notions otherwise as a “myth.”

“It was a Jack riding, not an NDP riding. People were voting for Jack, not the party...."

"...What he is hearing on the streets is that people voted for Mr. Layton, not the party..." /says Gordon/

and Grant gets classy right out of the gate:

“They didn’t vote for the NDP. Mr. Layton was the party leader and larger than life,” he said. “If the NDP wants to believe [in the polls], then maybe Mr. Scott should go to Las Vegas for the rest of the campaign..”"

one thing you can count on with the Liberals in T-D, they do apparently drink thier own kool-aide, and in the absence of anything substantive to offer the voters, they resort to snarky smears of thier opponents. 

I was one of the 538 people who responded to the push-button poll. I was pretty busy, but it seemed interesting so I stayed on the line. 

The Mulcair and Trudeau questions were separate and the only leader questions posed. ("Justin" was pronounced with a very distinct French accent. BTW) I thought it was pretty random that they got the only questions. But aren't they both leading in the respective leader polls at this point? So maybe it makes sense. 

adma wrote:

farnival wrote:

"“...Essentially the riding is Liberal,” said Mr. Mills, dismissing any notions otherwise as a “myth.”

“It was a Jack riding, not an NDP riding. People were voting for Jack, not the party...."

But the thing is: until Dennis Mills won in 1988, it *was* an NDP riding--and not only that, but the "strongest" in Toronto, then as now.  To the point where under no sane judgment could the Liberals have been bet on to win in '88--trouble is, Lynn McDonald was complacent, Mills conducted a superb retail campaign, and the whole anti-free-trade Liberal boomlet did the rest.

So: speak for yourself, Mr. Mills.

Of course, in 2004 the Liberals were spinning that it was a 'Dennis Mills' riding and that Jack didn't have a prayer against him.

The twitter feed #tordan is hilarious. Liberal supporters are tweeting every little thing they do, and posting photos of any Liberal sign they can find - me thinks if they spent a little less time on their keyboards and a little more time knocking on doors they wouldn't be 40 points behind in the polls.

Look at the charming lit the Liberals are now dropping.

The sponsorship scandal has been missed off, as has Mackenzie King's abominable treatment of Japanese-Canadians in WWII and his blithely sending Jews back into the welcoming arms of Hitler to appease anti-Semitic bigots. Not enough room on the page, I guess.

I find it charming that the Liberals have such a facile view of history. So J S Woodsworth *didn't* run the Liberals hard for the Old Age Pensions Act? Pearson wasn't feeling the heat from the NDP when he introduced the Medicare Act? Please.

And I find the inclusion of the ratification of Kyoto, but omitting the years of inaction following, idiotic.

I knew the Liberals were in bad shape in this riding - but this is really sad. Is it just me or is this video by the Liberal candidate totaly bizarre and quixotic...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=AC86iUenZes

What one can do in a campaign like this...where it's clear you're going to lose, is use it for doing a "dry run" on certain types of campaign tactics, observe what "works" and what doesn't so that you can refine your tactics and use them in campaigns where you do have a chance of winning in future.

The other thing is that you can have some fun while you're doing it because there aren't any real consequences for screwing up.

Stockholm wrote:

No one expects the Liberals to win in Toronto-Danforth - even though we should not forget that it used to be Bob Rae's seat and it was once a Liberal stronghold - but they could at least put in  credible performance and try to improve on their 18% showing in the May election. Instead they are becoming a laughing stalk and an object of ridicule.

Sounds like a good book:

[img]http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41j0BXgn-JL._SL500_AA300_.jpg[/img]

radiorahim wrote:

What one can do in a campaign like this...where it's clear you're going to lose, is use it for doing a "dry run" on certain types of campaign tactics, observe what "works" and what doesn't so that you can refine your tactics and use them in campaigns where you do have a chance of winning in future.

The other thing is that you can have some fun while you're doing it because there aren't any real consequences for screwing up.

1.) I see no indication he has ANY ideas that work. His idea of an 'idea' is designing a logo that looks like the words Fuck Off. (and he's still riding that one ten years later.)

2.) He's not gonna be run anywhere in the future.

3.) No consequences? Maybe... Maybe the Libs could run a lamprey eel in the riding and still be able to bank on a built in 19% of the vote.

Or maybe they'll get 6% of the vote because their candidate is such an embarrassment, and that WILL have consequences. I can write the article now

"While the NDP was favoured to win the riding, few anticipated the complete collapse of the Liberal vote in this, their former stronghold. Insiders say it is reflective of the continuing disarray within the party in the wake of the last election's historic defeat..."

I'm starting to feel sorry for this guy. All he has to do in life is keep his mouth shut and not be remembered as the weirdest spouse at his wife's office Christmas party.

And now he wont even be able to do that.

Lou Arab wrote:

How is the sign war shaping up?

I actually spotted the first Tory signs in my neighbourhood yesterday    One of them was actually on the lawn of a house that wasn't vacant.

I was thinking that maybe they might be doing another invisible campaign where all they do is put up a website.

I think in this case, "overconfidence" might mean not NDP loss a la 1988, but NDP under 50%  And maybe something even unforeseen such as the Tories in 2nd...

When I first heard of Grant I thought the Libs might actually be onto something: A corporate marketing guy who has done pro-bono communications work for progressive causes.

Not exactly a Rhodes scholar who worked with Nelson Mandela, but someone who could potentially bring the Mills voters back to the Libs.

Except Grant isn't really a corporate guy. His website lists charities he's worked with, and a few corporations involved, It gives no indication of any paying corporate work he ever landed. No links to say... a swiffer ad or a car ad or something. Or anything.

Usually when one does charitible work with corporations, a spin-off is sooner or later some paying business gets thrown your way:

"I appreciate the work you did on the Sick Kids campaign, it means a lot to me as my child was very sick when they were a newborn. How would you like to come in Tuesday to talk about doing some spots for our new lattes we're rolling out?"

or

" Who have you worked with? Virgin and MuchMusic? You don't say. Well, you must have some ability, sure I'll take the meeting."

But there's no indication he was ever able to capitalize on the charitible gigs. This is because his charitible work is, well, ineffectual and embarrassing.

Look up his youtube videos for the campaign. They're just... bad. As in inept. You cant hear what he's saying because they're filmed on windy days outside. And there's no substance to them. In one of his videos Bob Rae gives a really effective pitch on why to vote Liberal. But Grant doesn't get to speak at all. And that's just sad

On Saturday and Sunday in TO it was the prov NDP council mtg and they ended early on Saturday so the reps from all the ridings could go to TorDan and canvas - no, I'd say they are not taking the riding for granted - in fact, it's about getting out and knocking on every door and showing strength.

Wrong thread, sorry.

2x

Actually, I think Gordon is running a pretty smart campaign here in T-D.  He's putting up YouTube videos that, yes, are somewhat eccentric, but still get across the idea that he's a nice, ordinary family guy who coaches kids' hockey in the neighbourhood.

His wife posting a blog on his website humanizes him, gives people a peek into their happy homelife, shows he has his family support behind him, he's a "nice guy", etc.

He's gotten attention through his funny and silly flyers.  That first one addressing all the different party supporters was hilarious and got him lots of local press.  The one about what the Liberals have achieved and the NDP have achieved?  Well, as an NDP voter, I don't like it much, especially since they take credit for stuff the NDP had to push them into doing (like, hello, MEDICARE?), but it will probably be effective for swing voters.  When you're starting as far behind as he is, you've got to take risks and be bold, and that's what he's doing.

He's basically running in a faint-hope (no-hope?) campaign, and trying all sorts of interesting tactics to see if anything will stick, and trying to get some attention.  So, the party has a gigantic billboard that everyone sees when driving or riding their bike east on the Danforth into the riding from the Bloor Street Viaduct bridge with Bob Rae saying, "We want you back" (which I also think is an effective slogan).  They have rented an extremely visible campaign office, also the first thing you see when you come into the riding, at the corner of Broadview and Danforth.

I know everyone here is partisan (including me - I'll be voting NDP in the by-election too, since Mulcair won't be leader yet), but I think people aren't giving the competitor's campaign enough credit.  In fact, the NDP could probably learn some stuff from it for their own no-hope campaigns.

He won't win.  But if he increases the Liberal Party's vote share by a decent margin, they will probably consider that a success in itself, and use some of those campaign tactics in other ridings where they have a better chance.