With both Leadership candidates that have dropped out supporting him, I'm convinced now, more than ever, that Mulcair stands a reasonable change of winning on the 1st ballot.
I wouldn't go that far this is still a 7 candidate field there's little precedent for a candidate winning on the first ballot in a field that crowded (with many excellent candidates).
If Mulcair does win though (on whatever ballot) I think a lot of us will look back on today as the tipping point.
«Le désir de bâtir un avenir meilleur pour les jeunes et les générations futures m'a incité à me joindre au Nouveau Parti Démocratique et devenir candidat à la chefferie de ce parti. De tous et toutes mes collègues qui ont offert de diriger notre parti, je crois que Tom est le plus apte à unir tous les canadiens progressistes afin de nous diriger vers cet avenir", a-t-il mentionné par voie de communiqué.
«Tom a démontré au long de la course qu'il a la capacité de réunir tous et toutes les canadiens et canadiennes progressistes sous la bannière du NPD. Nous pouvons construire le pays auquel nous songeons et j'ai beaucoup de confiance que Tom nous dirigera à la victoire en 2015», a-t-il ajouté.
translation: "the desire to build a better future for youth and future generations was what drew me to joining the ndp and to becoming a leadership candidate. of all my colleagues in the leadership race, tom is the best choice to unify canadian progressives and lead us to that future.
over the course of the race, tom has shown the capacity to unite all progressive canadiens under the banner of the ndp. we can create the country for which we yearn, and i have a lot of confidence that tom will lead us to victory in 2015"
Yes, I get that Topp and Mulcair are seen as the only consensus choices for Quebec purposes. I understand why.
But I dont agree. Cullen in particular has a charm and confidence of the kind that tends to win people over- and Quebeckers are not different in that. Most people are not junkies and are more subtle in what they like and dont like.
At any rate, Cullen IS a likely winner. So I think its a bad idea fpr people to be saying it will be time for pulling out hair if it isnt Topp or Mulcair.
And I have found amusing the articles and posts here saying how Cullen could be kingmaker for Mulcair, or is helping him whether he intends to or not. I am sure Nathan Cullen intends to go to the mat.
And if you think about it- the only way for him to give Mulcair the boost over the top.... which I agree is withing his capability... is if he were to do it now or very, very soon. And that just is not going to happen. There is no waiting around to close to the last ballot round and say, "Oh well, looks like the best I can do is third place.... so I think I'll make sure Mulcair gets it."
I'm not questioning the sincerity of Nathan acting warmly to Mulcair.... but that also happens to be strategically astute for going down to the mat in the last round. That puppy dog has bigger teeth than you think. He is no one's protege.
Saganash endorsing Tom???
http://www.abitibiexpress.ca/Actualit%C3%A9s/Politique/2012-03-07/articl...
I'm very disappointed.
As a former Sagansh supporter, I will not be voting for Mulcair. He's still 12th on my list, after oldgoat's dogs, my cats and that fungus on the tree in oldgoat's backyard.
I generally slag endorsements. But Saganash would be a significant opinion. I know I care what he thinks. He'd arguably be the most significant endorsement of the race, unless perhaps another candidate dropped out, or Olivia Chow broke her oath to stay neutral.
And NR, there is just NO way Mulcair is winning in the first round. And as likely as he is to pick it up in later rounds, not winning in the first round opens the door, to someone else having the momentum to overtake the comfortable lead he will have in the first ballot.
This is true even without the more volatile dynamics of most people making their choices round by round.
yeah, i agree that IF mulcair wins, it'll definitely be after many rounds, and it won't be by many votes, likely a hair over 50%. there's a very sizable number of party members who are very reluctant to break with their comfort zone candidates.
here's a link to saganash's english release, more elaborate than the french one i posted/translated above:
http://blogs.canada.com/2012/03/07/ndp-leadership-saganash-endorses-mulc...
I think it's more important than ever, in view of all the major endorsements for Mulcair, for the base to vote for other candidates on the first ballot (and hopefully a second one too).
At all costs, we should avoid a coronation/acclamation, which would hand Mulcair carte blanche to run the party with less need for the consent of other leaders. The other candidates, especially those farther left, need that bargaining chip of a substantial number of votes that will give them credibility in cabinet (shadow or government).
Cullen may be offensive in Quebec because he is not bilingual, but if you like his politics then by all means give him the votes.
Ashton may need years of real experience and polishing (and slowing down and getting rid of the mechanical rhetoric), but she deserves a place in the sun.
Nash is consistent, experienced, caring, and ideologically more Left than most. She needs to be given that vote of confidence.
Me, right now (if I ever receive that ballot in the mail):
1. Nash.
2. Ashton.
3. Cullen.
4. Mulcair.
no offense north report, but you're out to lunch. this will be a tough slog, and mulcair might not come out on top.
I think it's more important than ever, in view of all the major endorsements for Mulcair, for the base to vote for other candidates on the first ballot (and hopefully a second one too).
That is an excellent idea if our goal is to Stephane Dion ourselves. #strategicvotingisbunk
Mulcair isnt pulling away.
He's 'just' staying out in front.
The longer he does, the more compelling that tends to be.
But there is a huge difference between being the favourite and pulling away from the rest.
there is a succesor thread 118
There has been an unique energy building up within Mulcair's campaign from about the 1st week into the Leadership race. As we enter the final few weeks it is becoming increasingly obvious that Mulcair is pulling away from the rest of the pack. My hunch is when all the votes are counted, Tom will have won, perhaps on the 1st ballot, and Nathan will be in second place.
Saganash endorsing Tom???
http://www.abitibiexpress.ca/Actualit%C3%A9s/Politique/2012-03-07/articl...
Wow. I was expecting him to endorse Dewar. That being said, Mulcair has the strong French, Québec profile, and took up Saganash's plank of triple bottom line resource partnerships as a way of combatting First Nations poverty early in the campaign. If the next leader isn't Mulcair, I would have liked them to be Saganash.
I always thought Mulcair the most likely. Then maybe Topp. Not Dewar, despite the choice of his supporters.
Yes, I get that Topp and Mulcair are seen as the only consensus choices for Quebec purposes. I understand why.
But I dont agree. Cullen in particular has a charm and confidence of the kind that tends to win people over- and Quebeckers are not different in that. Most people are not junkies and are more subtle in what they like and dont like.
At any rate, Cullen IS a likely winner. So I think its a bad idea fpr people to be saying it will be time for pulling out hair if it isnt Topp or Mulcair.
And I have found amusing the articles and posts here saying how Cullen could be kingmaker for Mulcair, or is helping him whether he intends to or not. I am sure Nathan Cullen intends to go to the mat.
And if you think about it- the only way for him to give Mulcair the boost over the top.... which I agree is withing his capability... is if he were to do it now or very, very soon. And that just is not going to happen. There is no waiting around to close to the last ballot round and say, "Oh well, looks like the best I can do is third place.... so I think I'll make sure Mulcair gets it."
I'm not questioning the sincerity of Nathan acting warmly to Mulcair.... but that also happens to be strategically astute for going down to the mat in the last round. That puppy dog has bigger teeth than you think. He is no one's protege.
I have no doubt that Mulcair is very well known in Quebec, and this automatically elevates his status there. With Topp, well he might be "acceptable" because he is Quebec born. I think the dismissal of the rest is just the sort of "knee jerk" response you sort of expect. Quebec IS a very insular and isolated culture within north america and it naturally takes time for anyone from outside the province to gain any traction there. I'll bet whoever wrote that article or editorial hardly knows the candidates at all.
(But it is a good indication that at least they are paying some attention to the race)
Mulcair isnt pulling away.
He's 'just' staying out in front.
The longer he does, the more compelling that tends to be.
But there is a huge difference between being the favourite and pulling away from the rest.
We won't really know until the Convention. However he may be ahead enough that there will be more than two people on the final ballot. That may depend on where Cullen ends up.
FMK,
I was inclined to think this as well (that the race will be a tough multi-ballot slog) but over the last few weeks ago I am increasingly of the view that Mulcair's momentum, already strong, has become almost insurmountable.
Last time out there was a similar sense that Jack had the "slick" campaign that was turning people off and that while he might have a big initial number that he might not be able to build support in subsequent ballots - didn't matter as there were none.
Most "Anyone But.." campaigns tend to coalesce around some cleavage within the party and while I get that Tom may not play nice with others in caucus, this doesn't seem to be reflected in his caucus support or in the Chisholm and now Saganash endorsements. The issue with Mulcair's perceived move to the center may well be a real concern to the other candidates (or their supporters) but is it clearly moreso than Cullen's co-op plan, Topp's seatless status or Dewar's sub-par French? I just don't see why Nash or Cullen or Topp or Dewar are more natural allies with each other (or that this natural alliance is obvious to their supporters - many of whom are casting ballots as we speak) than they are with Mulcair.
A few weeks ago I had thought that the NOT-Mulcair candidate might have been Nash (and I was personally very open to her being my choice at the outset of the race, in large part based on the recommendation of a close friend) but I have been singularly un-wowed by her campaign. She is probably fantastic and may well be faring much better on the stump than I know but for whatever reason the passion and charisma that others speak of has missed me.
Mulcair isnt pulling away.
He's 'just' staying out in front.
The longer he does, the more compelling that tends to be.
But there is a huge difference between being the favourite and pulling away from the rest.
Given the number of people contributing to each campaign, it looks like Cullen has momentum as well actually. Support for cooperation with other parties is probably much greater amongst the Party membership than it is on Babble. I wouldn't be totally surprised if Cullen is second on the first ballot/count, although I'm not clear how much growth potential he has, due to the opposition to cooperation and concerns about his French (although not quite as much as with Dewar).
oh so they like to endorse Liberals? 
______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!I'd like to take this occasion to remind everyone that Le Devoir [url=http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/123903/quel-chef-pour-les-liber... Michael Ignatieff in 2006[/url]. Recalibrate your spin accordingly.
The last table on this pdf is the most interesting to me. It shows the regional strength in each candidate's fundraising.
