Mulcair has garnered a lot striking endorsements and if this had been a traditional delegated convention I'm convinced he would have won. But this is OMOV and unfortunately for him these endorsements seem to carry little weight with a majority of members. Most members are not very familiar with someone like Saganash even as impressive as he's been in the race, or say a Paul Moist for Nash. As for the polls, I challenge anyone to name me a poll in the 4 month BC NDP leadership race which showed Farnworth with less than than a 10 point lead over Dix, or one which didn't show a potential Dix leadership being a disaster against Clark. The fundraising numbers are also quite intriguing and provide more evidence of why Mulcair's support is likely quite exaggerated. He's fourth place in Ontario and tied for 3rd in BC when 60% of the the members are from those two provinces. No, Mulcair is obviously going to be the runner-up or the winner, and I think that at the end of the day the members and the party will pick an anti-Mulcair.
The fundraising numbers are total dollars and not how many donors. Still, the numbers for Cullen in BC are astounding and he has overall momentum in both dollars and donors (as does Mulcair). I believe the polls during the BC NDP Leadership race were of NDP voters, not members, so their accuracy can be questioned (as can the polls in this Leadership election). There will be probably be more reports of donations and donors to the candidates and possibly more polls of members before this is over. Whether Mulcair wins or not will depend on who is on the final ballot with him (there could be more than two candidates on it).
