Toronto-Danforth byelection - 4

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Sun, 2012-03-18 12:23

ctrl190

Toronto-Danforth byelection - 4

Here are my predictions for tomorrow:

NDP - 48%

LIB - 34%

CON - 11%

GRN - 6%

Note that this is lower than the 60%+ polls a few weeks back. I think the Libs put on a good fight with a candidate who had good presence at the door and marketing-enviro-PTA-hockey dad cred to boot. These are the types of traits that do well in the Withrow/Riverdale/Player Estates pockets, with the types of voters who nearly turfed Paula Fletcher out of office last city election.

Still, the advances made in the riding under Layton, Tabuns and most recently Fragedakis should seal the deal. Interestingly, the northern portion of the riding, Danforth and Mortimer northward, which were historically solid red Dennis Mills territory, have shifted orange over the last few election cycles. This, plus traditionally strong showings in and around Danforth Village, Monarch Park and Leslieville, should play into the hand of Scott.

Of course, this does not mean you shouldn't vote or get involved on E-Day!

Regions:

Sun, 2012-03-18 17:08

NorthReport

Sweet!

Layton's Toronto riding looks to stay NDP in Monday's byelection

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/laytons-toronto-rid...

Sun, 2012-03-18 19:22

ctrl190

to editor:

Title should be "Toronto Danforth byelection - 5"

Mon, 2012-03-19 00:27

Stockholm

Here is my prediction:

NDP - 62%

LIB - 23%

CON - 12%

GRN - 3%

Remember - this is s referendum on Bob Rae

Mon, 2012-03-19 01:28

Wilf Day

NorthReport wrote:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/laytons-toronto-rid...

Quote:
Toronto-Danforth, just to the east of the city's downtown area, is a diverse riding, known for its large Greek, Chinese and other ethnic communities.

Has anyone seen Niki Ashton campaigning on the Danforth? She was working the Montreal Greek community. Surely she's been helping with the by-election?

Mon, 2012-03-19 09:37

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Stock, about the Lib candidate's comments their vote was for Jack (blessed be his memory), and not the NDP. How true is that. Are you perdiction numbers based on wish, gut or fact? I'd love to hear what you think. Thanks.

Mon, 2012-03-19 11:40

David Young

Have the numbers of those who cast votes in the advance poll been made known yet?

If so, how do they compare to the number who cast ballots in advance in 2011?

Mon, 2012-03-19 11:42

Stockholm

I think most people will vote the same asd they voted in the May election. The national polls don't show much change. About the only change we have seen is a dip in Tory fortunes and i expect that the tory will drop due to their non-existent local campaign and the gfact that there is no national Tory campaign that can lift a weak local effort in TD. The 14% Tory vote will largely stay home or some might drift to the Liberals - given the Libs a small dead cat bounce compared to their results last May - otherwise i think it will be very status quo - that is my guess.

Don't for get - the results are a referendum on Bob Rae!!!

Mon, 2012-03-19 11:44

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I hope you are right Stock! I hate to think how the MSM is going to spin this later.

Mon, 2012-03-19 14:16

#10

ctrl190

I contacted the city this morning about illegal Grant Gordon election signs posted at Donlands and Greenwood stations, the former directly across the street from a polling location.

You would think that with the media covering election shenanigans with a fine-toothed comb that the Libs would be wary of illegal election activity...

Mon, 2012-03-19 14:36

#11

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Nah, why would they? They're Libs!

Mon, 2012-03-19 14:46

#12

jfb

I also think that many people who voted for Jack in May, and also before that would vote NDP as a form of sentimental rememberance. There has been no negativity around Jack's death (positive) and nothing negative about the NDP nationally and provincially for voters in this riding to change their votes to liberal.

Mon, 2012-03-19 17:29

#13

Michelle

I just went and voted for Craig Scott. The polling station wasn't busy at all - I walked in, voted, didn't have to wait at all.

Hey, just curious. When I was on my way home, I saw a couple of guys standing at the corner of Donlands and O'Connor waving Grant Gordon signs. Is that allowed on E-day? I wasn't sure, so I didn't say anything.

I just called the Craig Scott campaign and let them know. The guy told me I wasn't the first one to call it in.

Mon, 2012-03-19 17:33

#14

Catchfire

Michelle wrote:
I just called the Craig Scott campaign and let them know. The guy told me I wasn't the first one to call it in.

That's because I set up a robocalling system to call the NDP campaign headquarters instructing them of election irregularities.

[size=8]Just kidding. I called them myself. But I disguised my voice as if I were a robot.[/size]

Mon, 2012-03-19 18:07

#15

Ken Burch

Catchfire wrote:

Michelle wrote:
I just called the Craig Scott campaign and let them know. The guy told me I wasn't the first one to call it in.

That's because I set up a robocalling system to call the NDP campaign headquarters instructing them of election irregularities.

[size=8]Just kidding. I called them myself. But I disguised my voice as if I were a robot.[/size]

Would have been better if you'd called it in via Skype...while DOING "The Robot"

Mon, 2012-03-19 18:15

#16

Ippurigakko

I just check wikipedia Toronto-Danforth electoral district someone edit

Andrew Keyes over 9000 voters

Wtf? false! someone WISH!

Mon, 2012-03-19 18:21

#17

Ken Burch

It's cool. I just changed it to be "over 90.000" for Dorian Baxter.

(then I deleted it before any Anglicans freaked out).

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:43

#18

adma

janfromthebruce wrote:

I also think that many people who voted for Jack in May, and also before that would vote NDP as a form of sentimental rememberance.

Then again, in Jack + Olivia's home riding, Rosario Marchese nearly lost provincially last fall against the grain of "sentimental rememberance"...

Not that it'd happen here.

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:44

#19

ctrl190

They should starting posting the results any minute now:

http://enr.elections.ca/home1.aspx

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:44

#20

jfb

ha ha ha - I like doing the robot!

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:44

#21

jfb

when do the polls close? kidding!

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:53

#22

Ken Burch

Just went to the CBC website and noticed something interesting in their coverage...in the tv footage, EVERY time they showed campaign signs, they always chose a camera angle that at least partially obscured Craig Scott's name on the NDP posters...just a coincidence...has to be...right...uh huh...

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:54

#23

bekayne

John Turmel's on the ballot!

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:54

#24

edmundoconnor

Wilf Day wrote:

Has anyone seen Niki Ashton campaigning on the Danforth? She was working the Montreal Greek community. Surely she's been helping with the by-election?

She's been in. I would be amazed if she hasn't been doing the exact same thing in Danforth that she did in Montreal.

Mon, 2012-03-19 20:57

#25

edmundoconnor

bekayne wrote:

John Turmel's on the ballot!

In his 76th campaign, and hoping to crack 20 votes.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:00

#26

Wilf Day

First poll: Green 2, Conservative 2.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:00

#27

Ippurigakko

Craig Scott - 49 (62%)

Grant Gordon - 26 (32.9%)

Andrew Keyes and Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu both 2 (2.5%)

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:00

#28

edmundoconnor

First poll in. Scott with 62% of vote.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:00

#29

ctrl190

They're starting to come in...

http://enr.elections.ca/home1.aspx

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:01

#30

edmundoconnor

First poll in. Scott with 62% of vote.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:03

#31

edmundoconnor

62.5%. 3 polls reporting.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:03

#32

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:05

#33

edmundoconnor

59.9% with five polls reporting. Scott's lead over Gordon already in three figures.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:06

#34

Albireo

7 polls now.Craig Scott at 58.5%.

No flood of support for John Turmel, mistaking him for Nycole.

Greens are now edging out the Cons for 3rd place, by 1 vote.

:-)

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:07

#35

ctrl190

Mike Francie from The Opera House

20 polls into #tordan: @CraigScottNDP 1363, Gordon 690, Keyes also ran. #cdnpoli

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:07

#36

Wilf Day

Conservative 54, Green 65! Yay! (This is the only real race.)

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:09

#37

ctrl190

Albireo wrote:

No flood of support for John Turmel, mistaking him for Nycole.

You aren't the first person to have thought of that. I truly can't "Turmel" stealing more than one or two votes from Craig.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:10

#38

ctrl190

Just realized there is no M-L or Communist Party candidates. That means probably 150+ votes for us.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:12

#39

Albireo

Wilf Day wrote:

Conservative 54, Green 65! Yay! (This is the only real race.)

I am carefully watching the race between the Independent Yazdanfar and the numeral 0. So far it's a tie. :-)

Which one of these candidates is the Elvis impersonator?

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:13

#40

edmundoconnor

59.9% with five polls reporting. Scott's lead over Gordon already in three figures.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:14

#41

Michelle

Wow! Great early results - I'm happy that my prediction of less than 50% is proving wrong so far!

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:14

#42

Ken Burch

Results now coming in.

Scott 58.9%

Gordon 29.0"

(17 out of 196 polls reporting)

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:17

#43

ctrl190

So far so good. I got a text from the Opera House suggesting that the polls coming in thus far are scattered in both the north and south end of the riding, perhaps giving a clearer illustration of the riding as a whole. I would be shocked if the Cons stay in the single digits.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:18

#44

ctrl190

Michelle wrote:

Wow! Great early results - I'm happy that my prediction of less than 50% is proving wrong so far!

Indeed, I predicted 48%. Any thing north of 50% will make it difficult for the Grits to spin.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:19

#45

Michelle

Holding steady at 58.6% to 29.2% with 25 polls reporting.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:19

#46

flight from kamakura

i'm a bit worried about how close it is. if the ndp candidate doesn't win by at least 30 percentage points, i'm thinking we're in some real trouble in the weeks, months and years to come, hehe...

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:20

#47

Ken Burch

Scott 58.6%

Gordon 29.2%

(25 out of 196 polls reporting)

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:21

#48

Michelle

That's still pretty good for Grant Gordon. If these numbers hold, he'll have almost doubled the Liberals' vote share over last election.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:22

#49

Michelle

flight from kamakura wrote:

i'm a bit worried about how close it is. if the ndp candidate doesn't win by at least 30 percentage points, i'm thinking we're in some real trouble in the weeks, months and years to come, hehe...

Haha! At first I thought you were serious - I was all ready to say, "Are you kidding!?"

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:22

#50

Ken Burch

At this stage, the Harpercrite candidate is only beating the Green candidate by 27 votes in the consolation bracket.

Mon, 2012-03-19 21:22

#51

NorthReport

OK, bout 60% for the NDP. Not too shabby, eh! What did Jack get in his last election?

And the Cons have a lot to crow bout too as they lead the Greens by 5% to 4% - lol

Maybee the NDP can clean up in the Toronto area in the next general election.

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