Love what Nathan has just said about attacks on other candidates.
NDP Leadership # 140
Sat, 2012-03-24 13:58
#102
Sat, 2012-03-24 13:59
#103
No candidate has delegates, most of the votes have already been cast. It makes little difference who the defeated candidates decide to support.
I'm happy with the last three choices, the three candidates I believe offer concrete visions for the party. I'm quite happy to see Nash defeated, amongst the final four, she was the only one I didn't want to see win.
Now we see if there really is an anti-Mulcair vote, in where the Nash votes go next. If they go mainly to Topp, the race isn't over.
Sat, 2012-03-24 13:59
#104
Nathan picked up more than Topp from the first round, but still not enough
I think that given the second ballot numbers, Mulcair should win, as he extended his lead. However there is still some question of whether more people will be able to get through on the third and probably fourth ballot.
Sat, 2012-03-24 13:59
#105
Can't see Mulcair growing much on the next ballot. He has to pray that Topp comes in second.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:01
#106
chimurenga
Contrary to the rather frothy fears that Mulcair would take the party to the right, he seems to me to have moved more to the left. He's certainly given no indication of moving the party to the right. He has repeatedly said that he wants to bring those who are outside of the party to the inside; that is, presumably, what NDPers have always wanted. We want to show to the population in general that their values are in accord with NDP values, and that the NDP will actually deliver on implememnting them. The frantic anti-Mulcair folks seem to want to restrict NDP support to the traditional levels of years past... perverse.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:03
#107
Nathan Cullen will pass Topp in next ballot as many who voted for Peggy had Cullen as their second choice .The CAW recomended Cullen as second choice after Peggy .
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:03
#108
Lou Arab
If Topp has any chance, he has to leap ahead on this ballot. Nash's supporters are the more likely to go en masse to Topp than Cullen's. If Topp is behind on ballot 3, he likely (but not necessasarily) loses.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:05
#109
The CAW recomended Cullen as second choice after Peggy .
Very interesting. Who in the CAW said that?
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:06
#110
I dont know why people are counting Topp out. I think its still Mulcair's to lose, but he's not close yet.
Look at this plausible breakdown for the next round:
Mulciar 43
Topp 35
Cullen 22
I would say that Mulcair getting less than 1/3 of Cullen's support is unlikely.
But what if only 5 or 6 % seperates Mulcair and Topp?
And remember, the Topp campaign has clearly been working on its support. And that would include second choices, especially in BC.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:09
#111
Anne Quach did a great job with her nomination speech for Nash. Who is she going to now?
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:10
#112
It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:11
#113
Prediction:
Mulcair 40
Topp 35
Cullen 25
Mulcair 55
Topp 45
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:12
#114
The CAW recomended Cullen as second choice after Peggy .Very interesting. Who in the CAW said that?
The e-mail i recived from the leadership .
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:12
#115
Nathan picked up more than Topp from the first round, but still not enough
I think that given the second ballot numbers, Mulcair should win, as he extended his lead. However there is still some question of whether more people will be able to get through on the third and probably fourth ballot.
The thing is that Mulcair had a lot of Singh votes to expect after the first round. If you exclude these votes, he doesn't seem to have gotten much of the votes.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:14
#116
Cheri DiNovo to Mulcair. That surprises.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:15
#117
Haha, Cheri Di Novo supporting Tom Mulcair. Just saw her interviewed. God, is she full of herself.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:16
#118
Yes, as noted, Mulcair did not appear to pick up a lot of votes beyond Singh's.
Also, Cullen's campaign has not done much contact work. They have relied heavily on momentum building outside conventional channels. It is very likely that more Cullen supporters in BC have got a call from the Topp campaign, than those called by Culle's campaign.
So we'll see when[if] Cullen announces his support for Mulcair. And I wouldnt even bet much on him doing that.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:16
#119
Cheri DiNovo to Mulcair. That surprises.
I can't imagine why that would surprise anyone.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:17
#120
Hey JeffWells, why be surprised? Mulcair trashed Libby for taking a moderate sort of stand on the Palestinian issue. Di Novo supported a Conservative motion to condemn Israeli Apartheid Week. They are siblings under the skin. I wonder whatever happened to her death threats? Did she report them to the police? Were the culprits caught? What a charlatan.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:18
#121
Cheri DiNovo to Mulcair. That surprises.
Interesting. I know a few Nash supporters from here in NS who had Tom as their second choice. Actually one of her local organizers.
Say this again... these "ideological" divides and attacks were more show than substance.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:18
#122
So, the strategic anti-Mulcair vote now would probably be Cullen. If the final ballot is Mulcair-Topp, then I think that way more Cullen supporters will move to Mulcair than Topp supporters would.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:19
#123
The 2 biggest losers here today - Bob Rae and Stephen Harper, as what is unfolding at the NDP Leadership Convention 2012 has to be their worst nitemare.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:19
#124
The e-mail i recived from the leadership .The CAW recomended Cullen as second choice after Peggy .Very interesting. Who in the CAW said that?
Seriously? Lewenza? What time was it sent out? My usual CAW suspects are supposed to forward stuff like that to me! I must be losing my touch.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:22
#125
Yea Nathan - very good show!!!
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:23
#126
So, the strategic anti-Mulcair vote now would probably be Cullen. If the final ballot is Mulcair-Topp, then I think that way more Cullen supporters will move to Mulcair than Topp supporters would.
Probably true. But the main difference between Mulcair and Cullen is follicle.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:24
#127
Lard Tunderin Jeezus
Cheri DiNovo to Mulcair. That surprises.
Why? I would have expected nothing less of her than to try to gain favour with the front-runner.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:26
#128
Lard Tunderin Jeezus
Probably true. But the main difference between Mulcair and Cullen is follicle.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:28
#129
It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
seems pretty likely;
only came close to happening once before, with ex CCF/labour lawyer Trudeau as Liberal leader -- had Eric Kierans switched formally to NDP earlier than 1970s, who knows? no other cases I can think of ...
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:29
#130
Libby Davies on CBC saying we're a family and the team will be united regardless who wins.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:30
#131
Libby praising Topp - invoking Jack's spirit. Julie Van Dusen trying to provoke her into saying bad things about Mulcair, gently. Libby doesn't bite - but at the end, all are laughing, and Libby looked to be literally biting her tongue.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:30
#132
Cheri DiNovo to Mulcair. That surprises.
Why? I would have expected nothing less of her than to try to gain favour with the front-runner.
Why not?
There is no longer a path to victory for either Cullen or Topp.
if either drop off and as much as 1/3 support goes to Mulcair it's over. No way is Mulcair getting less than 1/3 of either of those. Remember Mulcair and Cullen have in common they want to open the party in one way or another --
Topp and Mulcair both claim a strong Quebec connection.
It would take a huge move to put Cullen ahead of Topp but in either scenario Mulcair becomes unstoppable. And all that is assuming Nash support breaks way more for the others than Mulcair and while possible that is not certain.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:32
#133
It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
Yes, and it will (would) be to see the pundits and partisans of each party trying to come up with differences between the two.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:32
#134
Probably true. But the main difference between Mulcair and Cullen is follicle.So, the strategic anti-Mulcair vote now would probably be Cullen. If the final ballot is Mulcair-Topp, then I think that way more Cullen supporters will move to Mulcair than Topp supporters would.
I don't think so, necessarily. I think Cullen is way more open to listening to opposing opinions than Mulcair. And although a couple of his ideas are a little out there, he also made it clear that if the membership was open to it, he'd go forward but if they aren't, he'd do it the old fashioned way.
And the main thing is, I don't think he would stifle or denounce or freeze out people in the party with differing opinions. He seems open to listening, to raising ideas that might be controversial and debating them openly. And his communication skills are way better.
Those are the differences I see, and they're not small.
Cullen is the strategic choice now. Topp can't win because he won't get enough of Cullen's supporters to move over to him, but Cullen could get enough of Topp's.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:32
#135
I just voted in the 3rd round.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:32
#136
Libby knows she will work with Mulcair as leader.
I suspect that she will have a lot of support within the party to challenge him on some things (read mid-East)
I don't agree with Mulcair on Israel but I don't think him winning the leadership ends that discussion at all.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:34
#137
Libby praising Topp - invoking Jack's spirit. Julie Van Dusen trying to provoke her into saying bad things about Mulcair, gently. Libby doesn't bite - but at the end, all are laughing, and Libby looked to be literally biting her tongue.
Rats, wish I could have seen this. We don't get Newsworld, and the main CBC network stopped broadcasting the convention in favour of sports. So now we're back to watching CPAC online.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:34
#138
Randall Garrison, Peggy Nash supporter, now endorsing Thomas Mulcair!
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:35
#139
Libby knows she will work with Mulcair as leader.I suspect that she will have a lot of support within the party to challenge him on some things (read mid-East)
Voters in Vancouver East have many problems that Libby is well equipped to work on. On a scale of one to ten, how many of them would put Palestinian issues on the scale at all?
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:35
#140
Yes, and it will (would) be to see the pundits and partisans of each party trying to come up with differences between the two.It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
Well the NDP has more support, more seats, fewer scandals, more credibility---- do you really want me to go on?
And frankly I'd rather have a former Liberal who has move to our side than one who left what we believe in to go elsewhere. In the end while previous positions are instructive the current positions are more important than the previous ones.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:36
#141
Yes, and it will (would) be to see the pundits and partisans of each party trying to come up with differences between the two.It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
lol, yeah. The NDP is the new liberal. =p well, lets hope not...
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:36
#142
infracaninophile
"Also, Cullen's campaign has not done much contact work"
Well, I dunno. I got robocalls and emails from several of the candidates, but Cullen's team was the only one that had a person call me up - -a pleasant young woman, asking me to have a look at the website and consider Nathan's views, etc. No other candidate did that. On the robocalls where you have to answer who are your preferred candidates, I selected "undecided," so you would think perhaps a few might have tried to get me interested. Only Cullen did.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:36
#143
Yes, and it will (would) be to see the pundits and partisans of each party trying to come up with differences between the two.It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
Lord knows, I've been trying for years.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:38
#144
none
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:38
#145
Yes, and it will (would) be to see the pundits and partisans of each party trying to come up with differences between the two.It would be hilarious to see the federal Liberal leader who was a former NDPer and the federal NDP leader who was a liberal
Well the NDP has more support, more seats, fewer scandals, more credibility---- do you really want me to go on?
And frankly I'd rather have a former Liberal who has move to our side than one who left what we believe in to go elsewhere. In the end while previous positions are instructive the current positions are more important than the previous ones.
And the differences between Mulcair and Rae? Which is to what I was referring.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:38
#146
Voters in Vancouver East have many problems that Libby is well equipped to work on. On a scale of one to ten, how many of them would put Palestinian issues on the scale at all?
That's kind of funny, coming from the guy who told babblers that the problem with the left is that babblers weren't talking about internal state elections in India. ;)
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:40
#147
Hard to assess the turnout now. How many of the mail-in ballots are exhausted by now? No way to know, today. Wait for the political scientists to analyze them.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:41
#148
got voting closed message. restarted borowser, cleared cookies, got through and voted successfully.
good tip. logged in to vote in third round, page down. cleared cookies and cache in chrome and have logged in twice now (once to vote, once to check result). cheers!
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:44
#149
It's good that clearing your cookies and cache worked for online voting, but how many online voters out there won't think to do that or even know how to do that?
radiorahim's still trying to vote - 10 minutes later.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:48
#150
Voters in Vancouver East have many problems that Libby is well equipped to work on. On a scale of one to ten, how many of them would put Palestinian issues on the scale at all?
That's kind of funny, coming from the guy who told babblers that the problem with the left is that babblers weren't talking about internal state elections in India. ;)
Good point. But that wasn't really what I was saying; I was saying that very few Canadians with origins in India are on babble. Similarly, very few Canadians with origins in Palestine seem to be on babble either. I'll make you a deal; I'll stop posting about India if you stop posting about Palestine. No, I'm not serious. Kashmir and Palestine remain flashpoints whatever babblers think. Sadly, not many Canadian voters care enough about either.
Sat, 2012-03-24 14:50
#151
This thread is already barely loading for me.
How about everyone switc to 141, and nothing more here.