Another new one, from Robbins, has the NDP in the lead 34% / 33% / 26.5%.
Latest polling thread - started March 21, 2012
Thu, 2012-03-29 00:28
#52
Thu, 2012-03-29 00:37
#53
Mulcairmania!
Thu, 2012-03-29 08:40
#54
Arthur Cramer
Anyone have a link to the Forum poll cited by "Hatfield"?
Thu, 2012-03-29 08:55
#55
Yeah, a regional breakdown would be nice to see.
Never heard of this Robbins Research before
Thu, 2012-03-29 09:02
#56
Arthur Cramer
Seriously Debater, where are you?
You went after me time and time again when I said you only were intetested in stirring things up when the Libs were ahead and complaining and threatening me when I said your handle should be gloater. So, how about it, where are you? What do you have to say about these polls?
I'll be the first to admit these polls might mean nothing and that it could change once you guys pick Trudeau as your leader. But you can at least debate us, that is your handle, Debater, right?
So how about it hot shot? Are you realy a debater, or am I right about suggesting you change your moniker?
ETA: You heard it here first, Justin Trudeau will be elected Liberal Leader and the Libs will try to relive 1967 all over again. Take it to the bank!
Thu, 2012-03-29 10:23
#57
Another new one, from Robbins, has the NDP in the lead 34% / 33% / 26.5%.
Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats score at 2011 election levels in Quebec currently (43%), with Liberals down to (17%) and Conservatives at (11%) in Quebec. Stephen Harpers Conservatives remain in the lead in Ontario but have lost support down to (35%), with the Liberals at (31%) and the New Democrats (28.5%). In British Columbia the New Democrats lead with (38%), the Conservatives are down to (32%) and the Liberals have come up to (26%).New Democrat gains occur primarily in Ontario and British Columbia, Canada’s 1st and 3rd largest provinces.
Thu, 2012-03-29 11:10
#58
Go to the forum research website and register and you will be emailed the latest polling results I believe
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1153428--poll-new-de...
Anyone have a link to the Forum poll cited by "Hatfield"?
Thu, 2012-03-29 11:39
#59
Would Robbins numbers be enough to net the NDP a minority government? How about the forum poll?
I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.
Thu, 2012-03-29 11:45
#60
Arthur Cramer
I notice, no mention on Huff Post, Some surprise!
Thu, 2012-03-29 11:57
#61
This poll comes before what may well be a nasty polarizing budget.
Post budget it is possible if opinion becomes polarized the Cons could go up slightly but the Liberals, GRs and BQ all go down with the NDP taking first place.
If these numbers were to be sustained my guess is that the Federal Liberal party would almost completely vanish in the next election-- they are in this poll six points behind the NDP in Ontario at 24%. The Liberals highest polling is 25% in Atlantic Canada where they are still 9 points below the NDP. In the West they range from 12%-14% in this poll and only 15% in Quebec.
All that said the Liberals will have a convention. If it goes well they could recover a little-- if it goes badly they could be kissing single digits in the polls. They will have to find a way to convince Canadians that they are still relevant. I can't even imagine how they could begin to do that.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:02
#62
Oh-- income levels are also interesting in the Forum poll.
Again Liberals in 3rd in every level.
NDP 1st below $40k; and first $60k-100k and close second $40k-60k and $100k+
Lowest support for NDP is at $100k plus where it is *only* 31% to Conservative 35%
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:02
#63
Arthur Cramer
Sean, great comment! And with apologies, maybe we'll finally be able to get rid of Lamoureux here in Manitoba!
By the way, those Prairie numbers are great, and Alberta wow. How many seats would that be federally if the numbers held, and why are the Tories beginning to fall apparently in Alberta?
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:02
#64
The forum regionals are there for you to see if you register.
NDP in first place: BC (43%), Manitoba and Sask (44%), Quebec (40%),Ages 18-34, 45-54, Women
Cons in first ATL (39%-NDP second @34) ON (42% NDP second @30) AB (52% NDP second @31) Ages 35-44, 55-64, 65+ Men
Liberals would be projected to lose almost 1/3 of current seats and are not in first or second place in any demographic or region
Seats according to their model would be Cons 151 NDP 120 Lib 25 GR 1 BQ 11
These are devastating to both Cons and Liberals.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:21
#65
Fair does not mean excellent, very good or even good!
Harper government doing a 'fair' job on economy: poll
http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120329/harper-poll-econ...
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:23
#66
The Alberta numbers reflect both a drop for the Liberals and a drop for the Cons that is why the NDP shoots up. The Cons are only down about 10%-- thing is so are the Liberals.
Alberta has always looked more monolithic than it actually is.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:32
#67
The forum regionals are there for you to see if you register.
NDP in first place: BC (43%), Manitoba and Sask (44%), Quebec (40%),Ages 18-34, 45-54, Women
Cons in first ATL (39%-NDP second @34) ON (42% NDP second @30) AB (52% NDP second @31) Ages 35-44, 55-64, 65+ Men
Liberals would be projected to lose almost 1/3 of current seats and are not in first or second place in any demographic or region
Seats according to their model would be Cons 151 NDP 120 Lib 25 GR 1 BQ 11
These are devastating to both Cons and Liberals.
The NDP at 31% in Alberta seems not really credible. Be nice if that were the provincial NDP figure though, given the split on the right.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:32
#68
Fair does not mean excellent, very good or even good!
Harper government doing a 'fair' job on economy: poll
http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120329/harper-poll-econ...
Very biased reporting -- they are saying most fair to good because 40% say fair.
But numbers really mean 70% say fair to poor and 70% say fair to good.
Really what it means is that Canadians are split on performance of government with the biggest group choosing fair rather than good or poor. CTV is playing political games with the headline.
Article states most Canadians say fair to good but headline is more accurate...
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:32
#69
The Robbin numbers (NDP 34%/Cons 33%/ Libs 26.5%) would likely produce a NDP minority government as the Cons tend to win by massive margins in the Prairies (especially Alberta) making their vote conversion to seats inefficient in the one region they lead in.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:37
#70
The forum regionals are there for you to see if you register.
NDP in first place: BC (43%), Manitoba and Sask (44%), Quebec (40%),Ages 18-34, 45-54, Women
Call me a debbie downer, but I find this one really hard to believe.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:37
#71
It very well could be credible-- the NDP has been around 20% in Alberta before with the Liberals around 20% and the Cons at 60%. This poll suggests half of Liberal support has gone to NDP and the Cons are near their lower range (they range about 50-70% in Alberta).
That said the sample is very low.
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:43
#72
The Manitoba and Saskatchewan numbers compared to the last federal election have the Cons down 12% The NDP up 12 and Liberals in the same place...
The Alberta poll compared to last eleciton has Cons down 15% the NDP up 14% Liberals up 4% and Greens down 2%
Thu, 2012-03-29 12:46
#73
What we could see is a Prairie reaction to the whole robo-call/election dirty tricks stuff. Together with the sleeping Anders (from Alberta).
Yes, I think the Cons could finally be wearing some of their crap.
The problem I have with the poll is the sample size and skepticism with polls in general not that ny of these numbers cannot be explained easily.
Thu, 2012-03-29 13:01
#74
Well we always see slanted polls towards the cons that turn out to be lies and very rarely polls that slant towards the NDP, but when they do.... which usually turn out to be true.
Between robo con and the obvious conservative connections that point to an Albertan company and the now hiding behind budget day to find out it's 200 ridings in question that were tampered with ...mix that with a positive upbeat NEW NDP leader , our final hope! I would expect a big huge steamroller to be krushing the CPC soon if not already...and that would be reflected in the polls.
New http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zky2bn0Gtyg New
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QvXax88J8
Thu, 2012-03-29 13:26
#75
The forum regionals are there for you to see if you register.
NDP in first place: BC (43%), Manitoba and Sask (44%), Quebec (40%),Ages 18-34, 45-54, Women
Call me a debbie downer, but I find this one really hard to believe.
Its not as much of an outlier as you might think. If you look at all the recent national polls - they have consietently shown the NDP very competititive in Man?Sask
Thu, 2012-03-29 13:30
#76
It very well could be credible-- the NDP has been around 20% in Alberta before with the Liberals around 20% and the Cons at 60%. This poll suggests half of Liberal support has gone to NDP and the Cons are near their lower range (they range about 50-70% in Alberta).
That said the sample is very low.
So Forum released two different results for Alberta on the same day?
Thu, 2012-03-29 13:32
#77
Another new one, from Robbins, has the NDP in the lead 34% / 33% / 26.5%.
Searc for "Robbins Research" on these boards. It's a train wreck
Thu, 2012-03-29 13:33
#78
I notice, no mention on Huff Post, Some surprise!
If you're talking about the Robbins poll, with good reason
Thu, 2012-03-29 18:12
#79
knownothing
The forum regionals are there for you to see if you register.
NDP in first place: BC (43%), Manitoba and Sask (44%), Quebec (40%),Ages 18-34, 45-54, Women
Call me a debbie downer, but I find this one really hard to believe.
2 words: Wheat Board
Thu, 2012-03-29 18:48
#80
What we could see is a Prairie reaction to the whole robo-call/election dirty tricks stuff. Together with the sleeping Anders (from Alberta).
That, combined with fatigue with the 3 right-wing governments in power now in Western Canada and the bounce from Greg Sellinger's come-from-behind victory in Manitoba last Fall.
Thu, 2012-03-29 20:16
#81
I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.
Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
Thu, 2012-03-29 20:59
#82
I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
I was born 1979 so I was a little to young then to enjoy it. I was more into little fuzzy chair with eyes I had at the time, then politics so,I,guess I missed that one! :p
Thu, 2012-03-29 21:51
#83
Arthur Cramer
Brachina, you also missed this:
"And we'll keep jobs in Canada, for Canadians, for Canadians". Ed was always repeating himself in speeches. Heard him at the U of Manitoba in 81; yikes, I'm pretty old, lol!
Thu, 2012-03-29 22:27
#84
I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
And early 1990 under his successor.
Thu, 2012-03-29 22:58
#85
I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
And early 1990 under his successor.
Coincident with the fact that an NDP provincial government was on its way in Ontario that year, followed by Saskatchewan and British Columbia the following year.
Fri, 2012-03-30 06:21
#86
dacckon
Not to burst bubbles but when a new leader is elected-> poll numbers always go up. I could give an example but I don't feel like posting a swedish news link.
Usually because the media is positive. I think that Mulcair can definately handle the media spinsters when they start going negative. I've seen him do well against Soloman and he'll definately win the federal debate in 2015 (and the election day poll, which is the one that counts!).
Fri, 2012-03-30 06:25
#87
Yes there is only one poll that matters.
Fri, 2012-03-30 11:50
#88
The Conservatives and the NDP were found to be exactly tied in voter preference (35% each). Support for the Conservatives was found to be significantly higher among males (41%; compared to 31% of females). The NDP enjoy stronger support among younger voters (42% 18]34, 34% 35]44, 38% 45]54, 35% 55]64, and 29% 65+) and female voters (38%; compared to 32% of males).
Look at the income breakdown at the end: Only those earning more than $100,000 a year vote differently, and even they are no more Conservative than the average; but they split 26% Liberal, 31% NDP.
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/34523_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Issues_Poll_(Forum_Research).pdf
Fri, 2012-03-30 11:59
#89
it's important to include numbers for the Liberals, and others;
to look at the combined percentage of the non-Conservative vote.
Fri, 2012-03-30 13:45
#90
It also helps that the Nova Scotia NDP government has been seen by the public as a good manager of the public treasury, and not the 'Tax-And-Spend'-type government that the Conservatives have been framing them as for years.
Once the N.S. New Democrats are re-elected next year, those polling results should improve even more for the federal NDP.
Fri, 2012-03-30 18:13
#91
The thing this poll shows is the rather comprehensive tilt to the NDP. The NDP is either first or a close second in every single demographic, income group or region. This displacement of the Liberals as an alternative is sweeping. If the slide continues for the Liberals and they are unable to reverse it with their convention then that will be significant-- it will be the first time ever in Canadian history that we have the same two parties in the top two positions in every part of the country and in every demographic. I have never seen this in any poll before-- has anyone else?
It is very difficult for a third party to survive if they are also a middle party without a clear constituency. For the NDP this means that they cold look at a clear two party race against the Cons in the next election. The Cons would be hard pressed to win such a race given how they have ideologically set themselves up. The Cons are well set to compete in a 3, 4, or 5 party race but are positioned badly for a two party race. In order to be competitive in that environment they would have to rebrand themselves as a centre party much like the PCs they displaced. Mulcair's branding of them on the right is an effort to bring the centre to the NDP-- or claim the centre.
If the NDP claims the centre successfully it does not actually have to move there to win especially if it limits the Cons to the right.
Ironically what we may be looking at is the beginning of the end of the Conservative party. The Liberals will likely rebrand themselves to the right of where they used to be and if they are successful they could displace the Cons if the Cons are wearing enough scandal by the next election, we could end up looking at a BC-type system where the Cons are a right wing third party and the right is occupied by the Liberals and the left by the NDP. A John Manley type Liberal could lead what is left of the Liberals into taking much of the support from the Cons while ceding the left to a strong NDP. If the Liberals do not brand themselves in that way they will likely end up as an insignificant force.
Fri, 2012-03-30 19:49
#92
Arthur Cramer
Sean, wow! This is a really new kind of political envrionment we are in. That somehow seems so hard to believe, but when you think about guys like, Manley, that would explain how he could be in a "Liberal" party. So what about Debater, if that happens, are you moving right or coming with us?
Fri, 2012-03-30 19:49
#93
Arthur Cramer
Sean, wow! This is a really new kind of political envrionment we are in. That somehow seems so hard to believe, but when you think about guys like, Manley, that would explain how he could be in a "Liberal" party. So what about that Debater; if that happens, are you moving right or coming with us?
Sat, 2012-03-31 08:41
#94
I made MS Excel pie chart just doing fun
The NDP enjoy stronger support among younger and woman voters, Cons and some Lib are stronger support among Man and Old age voters.
Sat, 2012-03-31 08:48
#95
Very effective visuals Ipp, and thank you for this. 
Sat, 2012-03-31 08:55
#96
Sean, wow! This is a really new kind of political envrionment we are in. That somehow seems so hard to believe, but when you think about guys like, Manley, that would explain how he could be in a "Liberal" party. So what about Debater, if that happens, are you moving right or coming with us?
Don't hold your breath. It's doubtful we'll be hearing from Debater again until the next poll showing a sudden, inexplicable jump in Liberal support comes out...and that may not happen for awhile now.
Also...it's entirely possible that Debater is, in fact, a "bot"...posting LPC talking points at various times on a schedule determined by a mysterious algorithm known only to mad Liberal scientists.
Sat, 2012-03-31 11:11
#97
Looking at the age spread, it appears to me that the NDP will come into its own as the boomers age (45-54), and the conservatives' staunch senior support of earlier generations wanes.
If Trudeau rode a wave of new boomer voters, it looks like the NDP will ride the wave of senior boomer voters.
Looks good to me! :)
Sat, 2012-03-31 13:52
#98
Just in the 3.5 years between now and the 2015 election, a chunk of Tory voting people in their 80s will go to that big polling station in the sky while more and more NDP voting teenagers will have turned 18.
Sat, 2012-03-31 14:34
#99
yeah, on Statistics Canada says 5.5 millions who are under 14 age in 2006 (they born pre-1997) turns 18 yrs old
5.5 million youngers gonna vote in 2015
Sat, 2012-03-31 15:02
#100
I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
And early 1990 under his successor.
Didn't wet get that federal bounce in late 1990 and early 1991 AFTER the Ontario win?
Sat, 2012-03-31 15:32
#101
Didn't wet get that federal bounce in late 1990 and early 1991 AFTER the Ontario win?I've never seen the NDP beating both old school parties federally before and 35% is the highest I've seen the NDP yet.Late 80s under Ed Broadbent (though not on E-day in 1988, of course)
And early 1990 under his successor.
I don't think so.