What advertising message will Harper use to attack the NDP?

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Wed, 2012-04-11 15:54
#1
socialdemocrati...
What advertising message will Harper use to attack the NDP?

I finally realized why the Conservatives are taking so long to attack the NDP.

Yeah... there's the generic "high tax, anti-business, pro-welfare" attacks. Guaranteed those will be in there.

But attacking Mulcair, there are actually two ways to hit him. The problem for the Conservatives is those two strategies are completely contradictory.

 

STRATEGY ONE:

What Conservatives really want to say about the NDP is we're pandering to Quebec separatists, ready to promise the province the moon and sell out the rest of Canada.

Best Evidence:
- The NDP wants to "make it easier for Quebec to separate", because we're opposed to the Clarity Act. (Response: The Clarity Act is in some ways anti-Democratic more than it is anti-Separatist).
- The NDP "won the Bloc Quebecois vote" by pandering to them.
- There are a few Quebec NDP MPs with "separatist ties". (Whatever that means. Show a cartoon of Separatists running out of the Bloc door, and into the NDP door.)
- Our leader is from Quebec.
- Our leader is a French Citizen. (OMG)

 

STRATEGY TWO:

What Conservatives really want to say about Mulcair is that he's angry. The question is where do they find evidence of that? They can't just have a tough moment in question period, because that risks making Mulcair look "strong", instead of mean.

Best Evidence:
- Mulcair lost a defamation suit against a separatist, after calling him a "whore".
- A lot of sinister-sounding music and picture of Mulcair with his fist clenched.

 

THE CONSERVATIVE'S DILEMMA:

How can the NDP be pro-separatist, when Mulcair has the battlescars to prove otherwise?

There's a risk for Harper. Imagine that they run ads talking about how Mulcair took a verbal shit all over the separatists, and Mulcair actually became *more* popular because of it?

I also think the Conservatives are wary of writing off Quebec. Even though Harper is annoyed that Quebec represents 25% of the population/ridings who will consistently oppose his agenda, there are enough Quebec Conservatives who don't want Harper to kill their careers by making the Conservatives openly anti-Quebec.

 

NOW WHAT?

Conservatives WILL attack the NDP when the time is right. But seeing as they're torn between these two strategies, I think they're waiting for two things:

(1) For Mulcair to do something really "angry" looking, in which case they can prove he's angry without having to boost his anti-Separatist credentials.

(2) For the polling situation to clear up. If Quebec looks to be solidly NDP, the Conservatives will let us keep Quebec, and make that a heavy weight to carry in the rest of Canada.

Mulcair may be a lot of things, but I think that losing the lawsuit has made him extremely disciplined. I don't expect we'll see much outward anger. So I think that's going to leave Conservatives to decide:

Do they write-off Quebec and try to paint the NDP as pandering to Quebec?

Or do they show Mulcair's past temper against the separatists, and innoculate him against

 

WHAT DO NEW DEMOCRATS DO?

Here's the conversation we need to be having, IMO.

If Mulcair is "angry", let that be a good thing. Unemployment has surged. Harper is racking up a huge debt to pay for corporate tax cuts, and getting ready to slash social security. He may have stolen several ridings in the last election. Anger -- focused and disciplined anger -- is appropriate. Mulcair isn't exactly punching out reporters. He's taking a stand. We damn well should.

If Mulcair is "pro separatist", let Mulcair's battle scars become common knowledge. Losing a defamation suit isn't exactly a career-defining moment. But it tells you who Mulcair's enemies are. And IMO, if you can tell a lot about someone from their friends, you can learn even more about someone from their enemies. Now... didn't Harper pander to Alberta separatists by proposing a "firewall" around the province, and he's now letting multi-national oil companies run the country?

If we do our job right... we WILL get to have a debate about policy. The Conservatives will have to default back to their usual bag of attacks: "high tax", "anti-oil", "anti-business". And we have to talk about "pro social security", "pro sustainability", "pro fair trade".

 

Interested to hear what you guys think the Conservative angle will be against the NDP.

Issues Pages: 
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Wed, 2012-04-11 15:57
socialdemocrati...

argh, I left out a word after "innoculate him against" -- "innoculate him against attacks on being too pro-Quebec?"

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Wed, 2012-04-11 16:15
Tommy_Paine

Well, the Conservatives are not bound by truth, so they are free to make up stuff.  I think they'll go with the standard rhetoric-- Mulcair will tax you into the stone age, stop job creation and the job creators and if he won't the loonies in the party will...

We can't afford an NDP government, this isn't the time for change.... The NDP used search and rescue helicopters for personal business and ran up the costs for the F35's.....

Or even better, they will project what they think Harper's detractors are onto Mulcair.

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Wed, 2012-04-11 16:50
Howard

The sweet and sickly perfume of desperation.

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Wed, 2012-04-11 16:53
Doug

Warren Kinsella seems to think someone will care about the defamation suit but I don't suppose that anyone else does.

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Wed, 2012-04-11 16:58
Tommy_Paine

Don't let Warren Kinsella see the Sienfeld episode where George takes stock of his life, and decides to do the opposite of what his instincts tell him.

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Wed, 2012-04-11 16:59
Hoodeet

Howard wrote:

The sweet and sickly perfume of desperation.

Hoodeet (JW)

 

Of rotting flesh, perhaps...  We have gangrene for government.

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Wed, 2012-04-11 17:13
flight from kamakura

yeah, i think that we'll have have some time before the cpc launches into the ndp's new leader, basically because the cpc doesn't want to be throwing up messaging when they've little credibility.  my thinking is that they'll ride out the storm of this whole jets thing and then try to run on the standard "mulcair is a socialist from quebec" line that we're hearing from their individual mps in media interviews.  essentially, i think that the harper government is pretty happy to run a straight left/right campaign vs the ndp and that they'd like to define the left more than the party.  in this sense, we'll probably be seeing them tying the ndp to "failed social experiments", "the wrong time to raise taxes on canadian families" and more messaging along the lines of bc premier christy clark's "we're the free market option".  look at the way they've been going after dix - essentially economic.

the difference between the way they go after the liberal leaders and the ndp should be informed by the basic fact that the cpc doesn't see itself competing for sqing votes with the ndp in 8/10 cases like they do with the liberals.  so their approach will reflect that.  for sure, they'll try to go after mulcair on personality and him being from quebec, but otherwise, i see this being a 'free enterprise we' vs 'failed economics' they.

and obviously, if the ndp is leading before or during the election period, they'll carpet bomb on everything they can.

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Wed, 2012-04-11 22:59
bekayne

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

 

STRATEGY ONE:

What Conservatives really want to say about the NDP is we're pandering to Quebec separatists, ready to promise the province the moon and sell out the rest of Canada.

Best Evidence:
- The NDP wants to "make it easier for Quebec to separate", because we're opposed to the Clarity Act. (Response: The Clarity Act is in some ways anti-Democratic more than it is anti-Separatist).
- The NDP "won the Bloc Quebecois vote" by pandering to them.
- There are a few Quebec NDP MPs with "separatist ties". (Whatever that means. Show a cartoon of Separatists running out of the Bloc door, and into the NDP door.)
- Our leader is from Quebec.
- Our leader is a French Citizen. (OMG)

If they used this stategy, it really wouldn't start until after the Quebec election (if there's a PQ majority)

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Wed, 2012-04-11 23:18
Buddy Kat

I think they will do the personal attack...Link him to the Liberals and they are probably digging thru footage to frame him as a flip flopper .."Tom Mulcair... is he Liberal or NDP " ..."Can't make up his mind" etc etc. They may place pictures of him in heated exchanges to try and scare people.

 

I hope the NDP have some Harper attack ads ...to much to pick from but a simple one like this... "Harper  and ass or an ass *&^% " ..."Does it matter anymore?" ...."Send him packing" and just then a big foot is seen flashing accross the picture and a little Harper laugh is heard as he gets bounced....like the Bob Rae laugh except a Harper laugh sounds whimpy and childish..

Here is an exercise ...Just try and find a Harper laugh ...next to impossible, I only ever found one ...Jeez , one can make a commercial about that ..the man who never laughs.

 

New http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zky2bn0Gtyg New

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QvXax88J8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns8LD5Q8ecc

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Thu, 2012-04-12 14:10
Sean in Ottawa

I suspect the Cons are getting good PR advice already so no worries discussing it here.

You should never presume to know your enemy, that they will behave as they have in the past.

Consider the attacks on the previous Liberal leaders:

Liberals in the last few years differed from Conservatives in terms of the details of some policies but their themes were barely distinguishable. With respect to the few policies they disagreed with the Conservatives on, their position was often more popular. Going after the Liberals on policy or themes would have the effect of marginalizing the Conservatives on the right-- highlighting their least electable attributes. So instead they went on leadership, personal attacks. Leadership was the weakness of the Liberals and their proximity to the Cons on matters of substance made them more problematic targets with greater risk of backfire.

The NDP as a target is quite different. First, Mulcair is a tough target because any area where he is weak is also a vulnerable area for the Conservatives. In fact the NDP as a target is almost the opposite of the Liberals. On a leadership or personal there is a huge chance of a backfire. Having already done the character assassination thing, doing it again would say more about the Cons than Mulcair.But there is a lot more day-light between the NDP and the Cons on policy and the NDP record in government which is perceived very differently than it actually was.

My guess is the Cons will go after the NDP on policy and record directly. When ti comes to personal attacks i doubt the Cons will be so ill-advised as to make the personal attacks directly. Instead those will come by proxy-- friendly columnists, investigators looking for material they can leak, the raising of issues that Mulcair might have difficulty with in order to sow division. They will as much as possible wipe their fingerprints form the personal attacks.

I suspect an ad will be created on the NDP record highlighting, out of context, the worst moments of all NDP provincial governments... and full of lies. The NDP will likely have to sue as a response but even with that some damage will be done.

 

 

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Thu, 2012-04-12 14:21
KenS

When they decide the time is right, going after Mulcair over Quebec. Clarity Act, which is widely supported everywhere in the ROC. Franch flags in the background, or something emlematically French. Whatever the NDP has been doing to press Quebecs interests harder than the other parties.

And so on.

They can do that, and it work, no matter how much you can quote Mulcairs impeccable record as staunch federalist. Flag waving is a piece of cake.

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Thu, 2012-04-12 14:49
socialdemocrati...

Glad to hear from such an intelligent bunch of folks.

I think I'm realizing that the Conservatives aren't going to attack the NDP the way they attacked the Liberals.

With the Liberals, there was that "natural trust" that the party seemed to possess. So they had to go after Dion/Ignatieff on their personal qualities and leadership qualities, to make them completely untrustworthy.

With the NDP, Conservatives don't see us that way. They see us as naturally *un*trustworthy, and I think they can count on a certain amount of public opinion to share that viewpoint. As much as they're tempted to tear down Mulcair personally, I think they have more faith in their ability to win an ideological battle.

So I expect Conservatives to attack the NDP on policy. Not actual NDP policy of course. Imagined NDP policy, exaggerated NDP policy, distorted NDP policy. But still framed as an ideological battle, where Conservatives hope they can frame their positions as "reasonable, pragmatic good governance", whereas the NDP is "radical, ideological, interest-group patronage".

So yeah, expect the usual Conservative attacks about socialism, high taxes, anti-business, anti-jobs... (yes, the NDP HATES employment, haven't you heard?)

But you can't underestimate how much easier it is to focus on Quebec and Federalism. KenS is right: flag waving transcends left-right, and the Rest of Canada still can't understand the legitimate parallels between the Western protest parties (among which the NDP could be considered one) and the Bloc Quebecois. It's such an easy winning issue for them. We have to be prepared to argue against that one. We can make that argument. But it's not one that's already common sense.

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Thu, 2012-04-12 17:03
Sean in Ottawa

The other thing is the Cons may know that any attack they do on the NDP will justify a response and the NDP will respond.

That might make them want to save the attack for much closer to the election.

Still you never know-- I would not count on the Cons doing what is in their best interest.

A nasty attack on the NDP given recent headlines might reduce the Cons by 5 points in the polls instead of increase it. And that would drop them to their base (something around 25%).

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Thu, 2012-04-12 17:10
socialdemocrati...

Yeah, I could actually see a Conservative attack ad backfiring now.

First Dion, then Ignatieff. Once the attack on Bob Rae came out, a lot of the reaction ranged from confused to negative. When you keep on trying to pull the same trick, it eventually gets old. I think that any Conservative attack ad on the NDP will already be a little less effective, just because the population has become "habituated" to Conservative attacks. They expect it.

It could make for some NDP judo-style response, where we attack the Conservative attack. "Trying to distract from their failures." Name a few: robocalls, deficit, social security, unemployment.

I have *some* confidence in the NDP insiders to respond effectively. I don't think they're stupid enough to be blindsided by this.

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Thu, 2012-04-12 17:59
Michelle

Can't you just see Harper attacking Mulcair for being "angry"?  Because usually in these ads, after trashing the opposition, you juxtapose your own leader as the opposite. 

Does that mean they'd have to try to find footage of Harper looking happy and pleasant AND like he isn't a robot at the same time?

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Thu, 2012-04-12 21:32
KenS

I agree that we arent going to see the same kind of attacks as on Dion and Iggy- not a leader, just visiting, or any equivalent. Mulcair just isnt vulberable. And not the angry one either. That has some cachet among the chattering classes, so it will get repeated. But no attack ads.

Characterising the likely attacks as policy focused is correct strictly speaking, but kind of misses the boat. Nor is just or primarily distorted versions of our policy. It will be portraying us as the enemy- at least as people who act not according to your interests.

We are going to have to be proactive with our cap and trade policy. Get out there first, which is a tall order for a new team that has so many things it needs to cover right away.

Our climate change package was always a big fat target that just did not interest the Cons to bother attacking it. We were the fourth party, getting the Liberals was the only real priority, and the only advantage our policy conferred was in our competition with the Liberals. It just was not relevant to the competition between the Cons and NDP (mostly but not only BC).

But that was then. Even if Jack was still the Leader, they would be coming at us now on this one. And Mulcair has added some fuel to the fire with blue sky sketching during the leadership race. That will make a proactive approach by the NDP both more necessary, and more complicated to design.

That one is going to take much more than just not being stupid. Stupid would be not even identifying the problem. Then we are sunk. But it is quite the task even if the vulnerability is well understood.

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Thu, 2012-04-12 21:49
Uncle John

Hmm.. If I were advising the Cons,

1: I would say let's see what Mulcair has to offer and let him say his piece on the issues of the day. Then respond to that. If the MSM-described 'loose cannon' performs as expected, the Cons will have plenty of material to work with. There is no hurry at this stage in the game. Let the NDP define itself as a government-in-waiting and then comment on that.

2: Play up the inevitable contradictions of moving from right -of-centre Quebec Liberal to left-of-centre Federal NDP. Where does Mulcair REALLY stand? Is he a vacillating oscillator?

3: Attack the Liberals, because attacking the NDP might make them slide off to the Liberals more likely than to the Cons. Perhaps if you attack the Liberals and kind of ignore the NDP, so will the electorate. If the Cons can get even more Liberal votes than last time, they probably win again. The Liberals are the biggest threat to the Cons right now, as it is easy to sucker-punch them from the right. And it seems the Blue Liberals are now in love with Justin (many of them are sports nuts),  with many of them saying that boxing is how political disputes should be settled anyway. This may actually be good for the NDP, but I am not sure how the numbers would fall if the Tories suddenly lost the Blue Liberal vote back to the Liberals. One of the geniuses might be able to figure it out.

On the other hand, if I were advising the NDP, I would be very careful not to let the Conservatives frame you a 'loose cannon', act statesmanlike, and behave like a sensible government-in-waiting, note that both Quebec Liberal and Federal NDP are federalist, like it or not, and ignore the Liberals because you were once one yourself. Much in the same way Bob Rae has to ignore the NDP because he was once one himself.

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Thu, 2012-04-12 22:19
Aristotleded24

Michelle wrote:
Does that mean they'd have to try to find footage of Harper looking happy and pleasant AND like he isn't a robot at the same time?

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FGIQpdtS_Y]Rick Mercer did[/url]

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Fri, 2012-04-13 03:29
Doctor Manderly

 

I was`very surprised Conservatives have not launched an attack ad yet too....  on Mulcair....was expecting it to air right away...

 thought it would be in the drawer ready to go!

 

The reason attack ads are used is because they work.....Much as we might not like it...

 

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Tue, 2012-06-26 23:30
socialdemocrati...

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:
If we do our job right... we WILL get to have a debate about policy. The Conservatives will have to default back to their usual bag of attacks: "high tax", "anti-oil", "anti-business". And we have to talk about "pro social security", "pro sustainability", "pro fair trade".

Just stumbled across this old post again.

The Conservatives DID attack the old left wing tropes -- anti trade, anti business, crazy economic theories.

I can't really claim to be right. I ran my mouth on a lot of possibilities. Somewhere in there, the simplest things I said were true:

Seriously. After nine months of national profile, and 3 months as national leader, the most controversial "looney left" quote they can find from Mulcair is "Make them pay now for what they're doing."

And even though Quebec looks like a lost cause for Harper, there are enough Conservatives (and ex-Liberal sympathizers) that would be seriously pissed if Harper blew off the entire province.

So here it is. We're having a debate about policy. About energy, the environment, and economics.

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