Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

bekayne wrote:

Howard wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

FYI: The latest Forum poll on Ontario politics also asked people how they would vote in a federal election:

CPC - 36%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 24%

Goodbye Liberals!

If these numbers hold, you can say that again. The NDP would win almost every Lib-NDP match-up and the Conservatives would be vulnerable in some of the seats they took away from the Liberals in pre-2011 elections. It's hard to believe the Conservatives are so low in popular support. Still they have room to fall

So the Liberals would lose seats to the NDP, then gain them from the Conservatives? As for Lib-NDP match-ups, in only 3 of the Liberals 11 seats did the NDP finish 2nd

In how many Lib-NDP match-ups did the Libs finish 2nd?

bekayne wrote:

Howard wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Howard wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

FYI: The latest Forum poll on Ontario politics also asked people how they would vote in a federal election:

CPC - 36%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 24%

Goodbye Liberals!

If these numbers hold, you can say that again. The NDP would win almost every Lib-NDP match-up and the Conservatives would be vulnerable in some of the seats they took away from the Liberals in pre-2011 elections. It's hard to believe the Conservatives are so low in popular support. Still they have room to fall

So the Liberals would lose seats to the NDP, then gain them from the Conservatives? As for Lib-NDP match-ups, in only 3 of the Liberals 11 seats did the NDP finish 2nd

In how many Lib-NDP match-ups did the Libs finish 2nd?

Six. I would have assumed all those to be safe

Given that the NDP came second in the popular vote, second in seats, first second or a very close third in more seats than the Liberals, and is generally much more competitive than the Liberals (especially given recent poll numbers), I wonder if we should put out the call for Liberals to cast strategic votes for the NDP. What do you think?

bekayne wrote:

Howard wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Howard wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Howard wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

FYI: The latest Forum poll on Ontario politics also asked people how they would vote in a federal election:

CPC - 36%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 24%

Goodbye Liberals!

If these numbers hold, you can say that again. The NDP would win almost every Lib-NDP match-up and the Conservatives would be vulnerable in some of the seats they took away from the Liberals in pre-2011 elections. It's hard to believe the Conservatives are so low in popular support. Still they have room to fall

So the Liberals would lose seats to the NDP, then gain them from the Conservatives? As for Lib-NDP match-ups, in only 3 of the Liberals 11 seats did the NDP finish 2nd

In how many Lib-NDP match-ups did the Libs finish 2nd?

Six. I would have assumed all those to be safe

Given that the NDP came second in the popular vote, second in seats, first second or a very close third in more seats than the Liberals, and is generally much more competitive than the Liberals (especially given recent poll numbers), I wonder if we should put out the call for Liberals to cast strategic votes for the NDP. What do you think?

Ridings where the NDP was second & a combined NDP-Liberal vote was greater than the Conservatives: Bramlea-Gore-Malton, Sault Ste.Marie, Essex, Kenora. Ridings where the NDP was within 10% of the 2nd place Liberals: London West, Kitchener Centre, London North Centre, Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Guilderwood

That was then... Post-Raemania though...

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Good questions David.

Answers are guesses.

There are two categories of responses:

1) Inside Alberta: There could be a honeymoon period where both the WR and by association the Harperites go up in popularity. However, a couple years out that could be a problem as what goes up usually comes back down especially if they implement such a divisive agenda. Also, it will cause some friction as they may try to pull Harper to their more extreme positions either making Harper's government more unpopular among centrists or allowing more obvious room for an alternative federal party on the right. The greatest problem for Harper will be the fuel for the right to want to achieve more with Harper and his inability to deliver without losing some of his constituency.

2) Outside Alberta: Concern about the election of such a right wing government in AB cannot help Harper federally given the fact that now that he has a majority there is renewed speculation of a long term hidden agenda. Friction with a WR government will make Harper have to choose between satisfying this more extreme base or keeping a wider group happy. Getting it wrong can be devastating. Move to the centre and a national WR party can form; move to the right and the Liberals (as I have said in other places) could pick a right-of-centre leader and move to pick up the centre right vote as they did in BC. (That person could come straight out of the BC cabinet). A move to the right could also over time simply fuel Mulcair. Certainly a WR victory complicates things for Harper. The nightmare scenario that he won't admit to would be a combo of WR in AB and Hudak in Ontario. This would for many reasons increase the chance of a Federal Mulcair government. It would put another party on the national stage that could challenge Harper from the right and not having a federal branch won't save Harper from the rhetoric.

As it is Harper is straddling a very wide space.

There's something else here, Sean. The air is starting to come out of the Wildrose balloon, and the Alberta election could very well result in a minority (at least until enough PCs bolt to Wildrose to put the latter over the top). That opens things up, and allows the NDP to gain traction. Even now, the NDP is seeing surges in popularity in Edmonton, Calgary, and Lethbridge, how much more attention will they receive when every vote in the Legislature counts? It could actually backfire and crack Alberta's right-wing bastion, and whereas before Alberta could be depended upon to send well over 20 Conservatives to Ottawa, suddenly all of those seats are in play, and it's a new ballgame nationally.

I think that factor damages the Alberta Liberals way more than the NDP since Allison Redford is for all intents and purposes a Liberal.

Brachina wrote:

Alison maybe a red tory, but federally she is a member of the Harper Conservatives, harper even loaned her his campaign bus. The really obscene thing is Alison and Danielle are both members of the Harper conservatives, so Alberta will have Harper conservatives as government and Harper Conservatives as official opposition. Alison going to dippers and Liberals and asking them to vote for a Harper conservative to top another Harper Conservative is the biggest con job in Canadian,history. Its like being asked if you'd rather be shot or stabbed. I don't know why they don't just rename Alberta to Harperland. I swear the bitimen most be leaking into the water table in that proviance.

Harper is positively moderate compared to the Ted Mortons and Wildrosers of Alberta. Of course, in Ottawa, Harper doesn't always show his true extremist colours.

I do not support strategic voting  as a campaign issue. It is disrespectful, it is anti-democratic. I never supported asking the NDP to do it now I won't suggest it to Liberals.

I accept people may want to consider both who could win and who could lose in their riding and that people vote both negatively and positively. However, I do not like campaigns designed to limit people's choices. I am in favour of using other arguments to bring over Liberals.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I do not support strategic voting  as a campaign issue. It is disrespectful, it is anti-democratic. I never supported asking the NDP to do it now I won't suggest it to Liberals.

I'd like to add to your list: it is insulting, it is desperate, it is arrogant (it is Liberal).