Premier Christy Clark & the BC Liberals are both toast - so what happens now? (Thread #3)

Umm why is the headline calling Cummins' party the "PCs"? That's not their name.

Anyway... there are Conservatives who will not be convinced to vote Liberal. There are Liberals who will not be convinced to vote Conservative. I have my doubts that any one banner can unite them in time for May 2013.

And I still think there is a deeper question - do any remaining centrists in BC *really* still feel strongly that they have to unite with conservatives to keep the NDP out of power? Especially if they are the same centrists who would be willing to see the federal Liberals and NDP work together to keep Harper out of power?

NorthReport wrote:

Which Team Changes Manager First, Canucks or Libs?

In a rough sport, Christy Clark faces pressure if her party loses both byelections.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/04/17/BC-By-Elections/

It's not just a question of losing, but losing badly.

BC Liberal surrogates and spin doctors (eg Geoff Plant) seem to be putting out the message that the government losing the by-election isn't evidence of anything since governments always lose by-elections in BC. Of course, the glaring exception to this was Christy Clark's (admittedly narrow) win in Vancouver-Point Grey. Not to mention that there is a big difference between the government losing a seat it had held going into the by-election and failing to win a seat previously held by the opposition. The vast, vast majority of by-elections in BC in the last 20 years fall into the latter category. The only two instances that spring to mind where the government lost a seat it held prior to the by-election were Vancouver-Burrard 2008 and Surrey-Panorama Ridge 2004. I think there were a rash of by-elections that the Socreds lost to the NDP in the late 80s, but that's reaching back pretty far in time for examples. I don't know how anyone can ignore the optics of the government losing both a fairly safe Liberal seat (Port Moody-Coquitlam) and a very safe Liberal seat (Chilliwack-Hope).

The Liberals seem to have quietly conceded that they will most likely lose Port Moody-Coquitlam and are pinning their hopes on hanging onto Chilliwack-Hope. Gwen O'Mahony managed a respectable 33% of the vote there in the general election (versus 53% for Barry Penner), so it's conceivable that any of the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP could win the seat, depending on how the vote splits shake out.

According to the 308 "swing model", if broad survey results are applied to both by-elections, both will go to the NDP. Of course projections can be wildly inaccurate but it's interesting to see as a starting point.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/ndp-holds-wide-lead-over-di...

The odds are that [Dix's] party will also come out on top in tomorrow's two by-elections in Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam. If we apply these two polls to the swing model for these two individual ridings, we get the following results (not a prediction!):

CHILLIWACK-HOPE
New Democrats: 41-43%
Liberals: 32%
Conservatives: 26-27%

PORT MOODY-COQUITLAM
New Democrats: 46%
Liberals: 28-30%
Conservatives: 24-26%

Of course, by-elections can be unpredictable. I will be especially looking to see how the Conservatives do. These ridings are not in the parts of the province where the Conservatives should be expected to do best, but both of these polls show that the party is competitive (at least compared to the Liberals) throughout British Columbia. Will their vote turn out? Are they a real alternative option in the province? We'll find out tomorrow night.

Neither of these seats belong to the New Democrats. It will thus be a coup if they win both, but as they are almost assured of a good result they will have a positive headline whether they win them or not. Expectations for the Liberals are already low, so the damage will be somewhat mitigated if they lose one of them. If she wins both, she may be able to start turning things around for her party. If she loses both, the decline will continue. And for the Conservatives, anything over 20% will show they are the real deal.

But neither Dix nor Cummins have nearly as much riding on these results as the premier. By-elections can be odd little one-off events that have no wider meaning, but the effect the results will have on the political mood in the province could be significant.

308's projections for Chilliwack-Hope were eerily almost dead-on compared to tonight's results.

Electoral District Candidate's Ballot Name Affiliation Total Valid Votes % of Popular Vote

Chilliwack-Hope Lewis Clarke Dahlby Libertarian 135 1.01%

  John Martin BC Conservative Party 3,396 25.53%

Gwen O'Mahony BC NDP 5,499 41.34%

Laurie Throness BC Liberal Party 4,273 32.12%

124 of 126 ballot boxes reported 13,303 100%

However the projections for Port Moody-Coquitlam were only correct for Liberals, and way off for the Conservatives and NDP. So 308 managed to figure out exactly what fraction of the voters would flee the Liberals, but underestimated the NDP side of it. Surely Trasolini's profile as the ex-mayor played a significant role here in channelling the anti-Liberal vote towards a respected alternative. And perhaps the selection of a Conservative named "Christine Clarke" also made voters wary of ticking that box.

Electoral District Candidate's Ballot Name Affiliation Total Valid Votes % of Popular Vote

Chilliwack-Hope Lewis Clarke Dahlby Libertarian 135 1.01%

  John Martin BC Conservative Party 3,396 25.53%

Gwen O'Mahony BC NDP 5,499 41.34%

Laurie Throness BC Liberal Party 4,273 32.12%

124 of 126 ballot boxes reported 13,303 100%

The results are the best the NDP could have hoped for.  Because the Cons came third in BOTH ridings there is no clear alternative for "the Anybody But the NDP" voters in next years general election. The AB-NDP vote has traditionally run between 40% and 55% and likely it will be no different next election. The NDP both provincially and federally need three way races to win and there is nothing better than three way races where it is impossible to tell which right wing party is the strongest. 

This time the AB-NDP vote will be as low as it has been in a decade and the right is split. Victory in 2013 is assured unless the BC NDP falls on its sword.  The MSM will be looking for any implement for the party to impale itself on so I hope everyone in caucus are being good boys and girls.

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted

That doesn't bode well for their (the Greens) general election results.

'kay take your word for it now but am going to find out why i think that they are 'cause it was a pretty hard vocalization when i was scrutineering

NorthReport wrote:

And fuck the CBC News Dept.

I say "and fuck Christy Clark' as she is so outta touch with BC reality as not to be in it at all.

does she really think levelling the threat that BCers will have to leave the province if the NDP get in mean sfa to BC voters?

BCers have had to leave the province in droves to find work under the BC Libs. I would bet more than any other time. I hope the BCNDP researchers get the stats on this and start pushing the reality that more BCers work out of the province than ever before. over 500 hundred peeps from this town alone work or moved to find work in AB

she shot herself in the foot with that comment her out touchness has to be shown for what it is and it will be no better under any "free enterprise" party and we BCers have seen what they have done to our lives.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

What about former Conservative MP John Reynolds saying it's important to unite under the BC Liberals to prevent a socialist government from being elected?

i read this yesterday afternoon and did not know who John Reynolds was in the whole matter never heard of him before.

family dinner last night filled me in and I guess the operative word is 'John" as mom went on a rant about him and what mom calls his 'corrupt actions' and the VSE.

think that my generation like me knows sfa about him and could care less what he says.

Nonetheless, the Wildrose situation is more akin to our Conservatives (new, untested candidates) than the NDP. We already saw in the by-elections that voters were more reluctant to vote BCCon than expected. The difference is Alberta didn't have any other long-time party with a large natural voting constituency that could benefit from small swings in votes.

jerrym wrote:

I remember the 1983 provincial election in BC where the NDP led until Barrett made a single foolish statement in the last week and the election was lost. We cannot afford to take anything for granted.

As a Carpenter's Union activist I fought hard in that election and was gobsmacked at the stupidity of the Building Trades [my union included] and the NDP when they held a press conference to show the construction unions handing an over sized cheque to the party for hundreds of thousands of dollars.  Is that the one you mean?

Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

jerrym wrote:

Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

The ace in the BC NDP hand this time is Cristy Clark.  She is incompetent and it shows. Arrogant governments fall.

We shouldn't under estimate her, or the right though, even if they're on their way to a well deserved ass kicking. The two things that could realistically throw a wrench into the good guys winning a deserved landslide are a) Clark leaving "for the good of free enterprise" (bonus points if she, an ally such as that loathsome twit Hochstein or another one of those smarmy types say that it's for "the good of BC") leading to a quick re-absorption of the Cons, or b) she calls a surprise election ASAP. About the only thing Clark is decent at is campaigning, she's more incompetent when it comes to governing. The only election she lost was the NPA nomination contest.

The difference between the right and left in Canada is the right reinvents itself when its best before date expires.  The left has been driving the same vehicle since 1961.

The reason they can change is all about the money.  The Howe Street crowd in BC have no problem acting in concert to ensure they continue to control the government. The Clark victory surprised them and produced the worst case scenario for the 1%.  For a minute in politics in BC we had a left leaning NDP government with a center left opposition.  That immediately lead to a WELL FUNDED  campaign to replace one Gord for another.  That also included a WELL FUNDED media campaign spearheaded by Falcon and other shills for the 1%. 

The NDP when out of power has no moneyed backers who are willing to spend the money to reinvent the left.  The BC Fed will never take on that roll and they are one of the few organizations with any fiscal muscle. The BC CP is the vehicle the real powers in this province are test driving as a replacement car.  They are not yet sold on its merits since it came third in the first heats but their current vehicle didn't do much better.  So I expect that because they are still in doubt they will fund both parties and increase their third party attacks against the NDP.

jerrym wrote:

Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

this is a really good point.