Bird Flu 'Could Mutate to Cause Deadly Human Pandemic'

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Sat, 2012-06-23 04:02

NDPP

Bird Flu 'Could Mutate To Cause Deadly Human Pandemic'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18534676

"The H5N1 Bird Flu virus could change into a form able to spread rapidly between humans, scientists have warned.

Researchers have identified five genetic changes that could allow the virus to start a deadly pandemic.

Writing in the journal Science, they say it would be theoretically possible for these changes to occur in nature.

A US agency has tried unsuccessfully to ban publication of parts of the research fearing it could be used by terrorists to create a bioweapon..."

Wed, 2012-06-27 11:21

macktheknife

So, when bird's get the flu do they take a day off? Do they get cranky? Personally I think this is biological warfare perpetrated by the worms.

Wed, 2012-06-27 22:07

Sineed

This isn't exactly breaking news - the medical community has known for a while that H5N1 would be a serious nasty if it mutated to be easily transmittable. If it could spread the way, say, the common cold spreads, we'd have a catastrophe dwarfing the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19.

It's a 60% mortality rate for the people it's infected thus far. Here's a primer:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0004522/

Wed, 2012-06-27 23:01

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

60 million Americans got the swine flu. If it was the bird flu, 30 million would be dead. The entire population of Canada.

This actually has a more than remote chance of happening.

Thu, 2012-06-28 02:21

eastnoireast

quick, everybody line up in crowded waiting rooms for stuff to be injected into your veins, like good little sheep, er, birds, er, guinea pigs, er, good citizens, er,canadians.

hey, how do you get 75 candadians out of a swimming pool?

you say, "ok, everyone out of the pool".

Thu, 2012-06-28 08:35

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Did you have swine flu? I did. I'll be taking the shot from here on out.

I guess I just won't be one of the cool kids who, y'know, don't let science, reason or any of that intellectual stuff interefere with their hipness. Hope you don't wind up with a seriously ironic casket someday.

Thu, 2012-06-28 08:43

Unionist

eastnoireast wrote:

quick, everybody line up in crowded waiting rooms for stuff to be injected into your veins, like good little sheep, er, birds, er, guinea pigs, er, good citizens, er,canadians.

Yeah, just like seat belts in cars. Those dumb Canucks will fall for anything.

Thu, 2012-06-28 14:18

macktheknife

Obedience is not nesessarily a bad thing if it is based on provable science. I can only hope all the anti-vaccination crowd continues to avoid these shots as our collective gene pool can only be improved by their untimely demise from small pox and the like.

Thu, 2012-06-28 14:34

Timebandit Timebandit's picture

Actually, the unvaccinated put even the vaccinated at risk. Vaccination does not confer 100% immunity - usually more in the order of 70-90%. In order for vaccination to work, a majority, ideally about 90%, of the population must be vaccinated.

Thu, 2012-06-28 23:21

#10

eastnoireast

Did you have swine flu? I did. I'll be taking the shot from here on out.

well good for you.

i don't get flues or colds much. the best defence is a healthy immune system.
not to say i won't get it, but neither can you say you won't get it if you vaccinate.

science is only as good as the direction it's pointed in. instead of mass vaccinations, maybe we should be looking at the commonalities of the 40 and 60% of those who did and didn't make it, age? diet? lifestyle? proximity to factory farms?

I guess I just won't be one of the cool kids who, y'know, don't let science, reason or any of that intellectual stuff interefere with their hipness.

well, i snarked so i guess i can't complain about getting it back.

from what i understand, smallpox vaccinations in africa (cultured in a medium of monkey liver) are considered a probable early vector for the explosion of the hiv virus in humans. although there are documented cases of aids as far back as the 50's, and it's precursor in primates undoubtedly dates back much further, outbreaks were very limited because, well, the virus had never been injected into the bloodstream of some of the several million humans who were vacinated, thus bypassing several layers of natural defence. scientists weren't screening for hiv in the monkey livers because they didn't know about it.

Actually, the unvaccinated put even the vaccinated at risk.

sheep who don't take care of their health, and buy cheep cheep agri-food produced in unhealthy factory farm conditions put people at risk, too.

cheep cheep. get it? same goes for swine flu and that huge pig farm in mexico where it started. not to mention what the huge pig farm business model did for local farmers, local economies, biodiversity, genetic resilience, and food security.

which brings us back to lifestyle and healthy immune systems.

Fri, 2012-06-29 00:56

#11

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Meh!

Fri, 2012-06-29 10:12

#12

ElizaQ2

Watch a doc show the other week. Sorry can't remember the name about many diseases beyond the commonaly known ones like the flu and TB that are already causing problems and have the potential to cause even bigger problems. Mostly bacterial forms of disease that are highly resistent to anti-biotics and highly adaptable to the ones that exists. It was one of those 'why did I watch that, my continued ignorance on the subject would be more blissful' shows.

The take away after doing a bit of google looksee after it was that we are potentially moving into an era that without some big leaps in the treatment of these bacterial type infections that even more people will be suffering and dying from things that in general people aren't used to thinking as killers. Kinda like moving back to time when anti-biotics weren't around to act as such saviors. Where even a little cut under the right circumstances can kill will become more common like it once was.

I think that if the numbers I hear and read about are correct that these types of things are already killing more people then even the regular flu is and infectious disease experts are predicting that the overall numbers are just going to get worse as these microbes continue to evolve.

Without trying to derail too much to me this sort of thing is as much as potential threat as the flu and other viral infections. At least with the flu there is such a thing as vaccinations to help deal with it as well as biologically human internal adaptation to the virus which I think if my biology is correct happens at a much faster rate even without a vaccination to help turbo boost it then against some of these bacterial nasties.

After seeing that show I had many thoughts about the whole situation with one of the main ones being why all the hype about the flu when some of these other things seem to be as much if not more threatening to widespread societal health? Maybe one of the reasons is that the whole realm of anti-biotic resistent nasties is harder to get a handle on because it's not necessarily and acute mass populace situation and there are way less solutions and even near future solutions to deal with some of them and that can be quite scary.

Fri, 2012-06-29 20:47

#13

Sineed

Timebandit wrote:
Actually, the unvaccinated put even the vaccinated at risk. Vaccination does not confer 100% immunity - usually more in the order of 70-90%. In order for vaccination to work, a majority, ideally about 90%, of the population must be vaccinated.

Yes, you're describing herd immunity. Newborns too young to vaccinate have died from whooping cough contracted from kids whose parents didn't believe in vaccination.