Kitchener-Waterloo byelection

OPSBA president Catherine Fife seeks NDP nomination in Witmer riding

Catherine Fife, trustee and chair of the Waterloo Region District School Board and president of the Ontario Public School Boards’ Association, is putting her name forward to run on the NDP ticket in the local by-election to fill the seat vacated by former Tory MPP Elizabeth Witmer.

The NDP nomination meeting is scheduled for July 26. Fife made her announcement Thursday morning in the Waterloo Public Square.

Fife seeks NDP nomination

In a press release, Fife said she was motivated to run for MPP by “both a real concern about the direction of this province and an interest in providing strong representation for Kitchener-Waterloo at Queen’s Park.”

“I’m confident that the NDP’s growing support in this province will translate into a tight three-way race in the coming byelection,” Fife said. “I’m obviously hoping to not only win the NDP nomination but also to come out on top when the byelection votes are tallied.”

I think it is winnable too.

Indeed. [url=http://www.therecord.com/opinion/columns/article/760337--d-amato-don-t-c... Don’t count out ‘Elizabeth Left’ in byelection (KW Record)[/url]

If Karen Scian wins the OLP nom, interesting situation with all 4 main parties running female candidates. Anyone know the last time that happened in a by-election?

I'd vote for Catherine. Very impressive.

Don't know about by-elections, but it happened on my side of the country in Vancouver Centre for the 2011 federal election. Hedy Fry (Lib), Karen Shillington (NDP), Jennifer Clarke (Con), Adriane Carr (Green).

Oh! Vancouver-Fairview provincial by-election was Jenn McGinn (BCNDP), Margaret MacDiarmid (BCLIB) and Jane Sterk (BC Green). The Conservative was a guy but wasn't part of the debates and they weren't a going concern at that point in time.

Ontario by-election to be held in Vaughan as Sorbara retires

Okay what do you think the political strategy is here by the Libs? This riding is held both provincially and federally by the Cons, although Sorbara won it handily the last 2 elections.

Interesting reference to the byelection in KW -

The NDP secured the nomination of Catherine Fife, head of the Ontario Public School Boards Association, to be the party’s candidate in Kitchener-Waterloo.

Fife, well known in the education community, was also courted by the Liberals. Some say this is her election to lose in the riding.

While South Asians are the largest visible minority group within the Vaughan Riding, they are nowhere near the percentage of the elctorate that they are in nearby Brampton ridings. More telling statistics to describe the riding are that Vaughan riding is (1) 96% homeowners and 6% tenant households, and (2) 85% of the homes in the riding were built between 1986 and the date of the 2006 census while only 15% of all homes in the riding were built earlier than 1986.

And the Jewish community is largely a far-northeast rump.

Generally speaking, the NDP *could* test-ride an "Italian strategy" here--a northward version of what's historically worked for them south of Steeles?--but I wouldn't go much further than the test-ride scenario, unless some un-corrupt bigwig from one of the other parties throws in his/her lot as a standard-bearer...

An old marketing maxim: If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.

The opinion of those commenting here seems to be that the NDP does indeed have a competitive advantage in the K-W byelection. I'm not writing to refute that opinion, but rather to suggest what might have been done were the situation otherwise.

The NDP might have considered not running a candidate at all.  However, since the byelection will be considered a referendum on the performance of the minority government to date, the party would need to participate in some way--but how?

Perhaps by involving itself in the election as an intervenor at the level of provincial policy, as a friend of the court, so to speak, by which I mean the court of public opinion:

• by running ads of this type: Thinking of voting Liberal? Think again. Here's why . . . .
• by having the leader and the critics speak on matters that they have been dealing with at Queen's Park.

For such a campaign, the party could have appealled for $ from NDP supporters province-wide--much as it is actually doing, but, I believe, with hope for a better response.

Or so it seems to me, eh?!

Poll: Vaughan byelection up for grabs

I'll do some snip and clip here:

Poll: Vaughan byelection up for grabs ....If the provincial byelection in Vaughan were held today, the traditionally Liberal riding could fall to the Tories, a new Forum poll shows.

The Forum poll, taken by telephone late last week, shows 41 per cent of voters would choose the Progressive Conservatives, 40 per cent would vote for the Liberals, while only 15 per cent would vote NDP.

Premier Dalton McGuinty has retained his popularity in this Greater Toronto Area riding, according to the 452 Vaughan residents surveyed.

While McGuinty’s credibility with voters provincially has suffered recently, he had an approval rating of 32 per cent in Vaughan. New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath’s approval is highest at 33 per cent and PC Leader Tim Hudak is sitting at 24 per cent.

However, Forum found the Conservatives in Vaughan are more likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their party at 42 per cent as opposed to the Liberals at 39 per cent and the NDP at 37 per cent.

In Kitchener—Waterloo, the NDP secured the nomination of Catherine Fife, head of the Ontario Public School Boards Association. Some say she is the candidate to beat.

So it doesn't say but WHO paid for this poll? And furthermore, and which party's interest does it serve to release that information? My guess Liberal because it's to work like push polling in to tap down the NDP vote in Vaugh by suggesting "no hope", and yet not one candidate has been nominated yet, for any party.

Also, once again alluding to Catherine ahead in K/W. But also, quite weird that a poll was run in Vaugh and yet not one done in K/W although it was called a long time ago??? Perhaps a poll was done by Forum for a "party of interest" but they don't want to release those results.

What do others think is going on here?

thanks Stock, I didn't realize that Forum had done a poll for Waterloo the day after an election. That seems silly and a waste because of the optics of the Libs buying off a PC.

Not everybody living in Vaugh would be an owner of a construction company and obviously 15% support suggests there are folks there who want to vote NDP.

No fun whatsoever for those who experience politics as games or (a la Hedges et. al.) theatre, eh?!  But for others, . . .

Not sure what you are getting at Grandpa Bill, so are you suggesting that the NDP should not run a candidate in Vaughn? What about W/K?

Yeah, I know what you mean: the old "Ralph Nader elected Dubyah" argument

But ultimately, an overinsistence upon such "competitive advantage" is like an overinsistence upon the only way from Toronto to Windsor being along 400-series highways...

Thanks for the comment, JB.  I agree with you: the Liberals are not progressive.  That's why I suggested this earlier in this thread, with some added emphasis here as it relates to your comment:

And YES if the NDP gets a great candidate, . . . .  But (for me, at least) a great candidate is one who will come second at worst, not second at best.  In Vaughan, there's not a chance; in K-W, it seems to be a crap shoot. 

Seems to me:  crap shoots are for those with much bigger bankrolls. 

Interesting point:  it certainly has merit.  I'm, of course, more concerned with the insistence on the need to run a candidate in every riding in every election as the only route to political success.

If the NDP didn't file a candidate in Vaughan, the Liberals would be assured a victory.  In the case of Vaughan, I don't mind an Ontario PC win, just because it would solidify a minority government.  I might even consider voting PC if I was a resident of Vaughan.  Again, just because of how close the numbers are to a majority.  I don't usually consider voting strategically in elections (actually never in general elections), but this is a very rare circumstance, where one seat does make an enormous difference.  Especially if the Liberals win K-W.  Of course, in K-W I would vote NDP as there is a good chance for a win.  Again, just to clarify, as a citizen, I vote for what would make my province more progressive, socially democratic, or more simply, left.  In the case of Vaughan, that may just be voting PC, as the NDP would maintain a balance of power.

Then again, in 2007, the NDP were seven points away from 2nd in Vaughan--yeah, that was 11.7% vs 18.7% for the PCs; but, still...

Legislation to impose contract on Ontario teachers could trigger an election

Attempts by Ontario's minority Liberal government to impose a wage freeze on teachers this summer could trigger a general election if it can't convince the opposition parties to let the bill pass.

Premier Dalton McGuinty has threatened to recall the legislature for an emergency session to impose a new contract on teachers if they can't reach agreements with local school boards by Sept. 1.

"We’ve worked long and hard and been sincere and earnest in our efforts to work with our teaching partners, but at some point in time you’ve got to act," McGuinty said after touring a school in Windsor.

McGuinty forgot to mention that the province isn't the legal employer and school boards are, so he can't impose anything unless he want s to contravene his own laws and statutes: the Ed Act and Labour Law.

McGuinty, Mr. Blue Liberal is showing Harper how "union busting" is done - WTG.

Liberals select Eric Davis to carry banner in byelection

Kitchener-Waterloo Liberals selected lawyer and community activist Eric Davis over Karen Scian and Raj Sharma as their candidate for the Sept. 6 byelection late Thursday night, completing the map of who will contest the vote in 27 days time.

As a lawyer with Miller Thompson LLP, Davis practises municipal, planning and education law. He serves as the vice-chair of the board of the Kitchener-Waterloo United Way and sits on the provincial/federal affairs committee of the Kitchener-Waterloo Chamber of Commerce.

He told reporters his campaign will focus on promoting changes the Liberal government have made to health care and education during the last nine years. He rejected the notion that the byelection could turn into a referendum on whether Premier Dalton McGuinty deserves another majority mandate.

“A majority isn’t hanging in the balance. There’s a Vaughan byelection as well which is called simultaneously. We’ll have to see how both byelections work out. What we’re focused on is . . . the local race.”

Mr. Lawyer is playing with words. They need to win both to get a one seat majority.

Vaughan is a seat I could see the NDP winning if they won government. That alone is reason enough to target it. It is also a good test of any efforts by the NDP to expand their support into new demographics.

Well, until 2015. It has 196,068 residents, 1.846 quotients. Will one part be better than the other?

Those 196,068 could be in a VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE with about 112,100 residents and a new VAUGHAN—MAPLE also with about 112,100 residents including about 28,100 residents of the present Thornhill. Maple, and the northwest corner of Thornhill, are the best areas for the NDP in both of those ridings. Still not great, but not as weak as the likely VAUGHAN—WOODBRIDGE.

But we'll see the proposed Ontario boundaries any day now. The other nine Commissions have now released proposals.

While the next federal election is fairly certain to occur no earlier than 2015, the minority government in Ontario means that a provincial election could occur earlier and under new boundaries. Since provincial boundaries are deemed (at least until provincial legislation changes) to be identical to federal boundaries in southern Ontario, the impending changes federally could result in an election taking place provincially in Ontario in advance of the 2015 federal election.
The PCs got almost as many votes but many fewer seats in 2011 than the provincial Liberals by winning big in "small town Ontario" to the west and east of the GTA while making no breakthroughs in the GTA or Toronto itself. Since the GTA will disproporionately gain new seats with the impending redistribution, the provincial Liberals may convince themselves that they have a strategic advantage in getting new boundaries into place as quickly as possible -- perhaps even more quickly than the currrent federal legislation allows the new proposals to take effect federally -- so as to get their majority through redistribution. Someone else can do the poll-by-poll analysis, but I have no doubt that, had the 2011 Ontario election somehow taken place based on the boundaries that are about to be proposed, the McGuinty Liberals would have won enough seats to be just over a majority in the Legislature instead of just under. While annoying in terms of motivation, that approach IMHO is actually democratic (by providing greater representation by population as soon as practical, rather than later).

Oh, for the record, I'm hearing of a Forum poll that shows the Libs and PC tiwd at 36 and the NDP at 20 in K-W.  (And since I'm not Debater, you can't accuse me of posting info with some kind of malicious agenda;-))