Electoral Maps 5

Wilf, The recent Saskatchewan provincial redistribution was carried out on the basis of residents over the age of 18. The Quebec redistribution has now taken this a step further by counting only voters. I am unaware of any other jurisdiction which does not redistribute on the basis of population as a whole. Do you?

The concerns are obvious. Area with large youth or immigration populations  stand to loose seats. Areas with older populations will gain. Given that the first two demographics tend to favour Liberals and  NDP, and the latter the Conservatives the map may be significantly skewered.

Are you able to calculate what effect this formula may have on the Quebec or Saskatchewan maps?

I have tried to get an idea of the effect on the island of Montreal, where immigants to Quebec tend to consentrate. but my calculations are admitedly crude. Under the new federal redistribution, based on overall population, the island on Montreal gets 19 of 78 Quebec seats or 24.4%. Under the new provincial reditribution it gets 28 out of 125 seats or 22.4%. If it had the same ratio as the federal map It would recive 30.4 seats. On these numbers Montreal's weight would be reduced by almost 10%. And within Montreal heavily immigrant ares would be reduced even more.

Do you know who brought in these changes and when? If it were the provincial Liberals, who tend to dominate the Allophone vote, I suspect they are to their considerable electoral disadvantage in Montreal.

Stockholm wrote:

The new proposed Sasaktchewan map has just been posted and it looks like it could not have been better for the NDP if they had designed it themselves! Let's hope it stays this way.

Do you have the link so we can see for ourselves?

Stockholm wrote:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=sk&...

 

Thanks for the link, Stockholm!

This is a complete turnaround from the last redistribution.

I can see the NDP in strong contention for all 6 urban seats, especially if Goodale finally leaves politics to collect his generous pension.

Let's also hope that Lawrence Joseph will consider running again in D.M.C.R., after coming very close last time.

Here is an analysis of the new Sask map with some handy maps:

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/

Although we do not yet have an actual transposition of votes, it would seem that the NDP would have won Regina Lewvan and Saskatoon Centre - University on its 2011 vote. The Con margin in Desnethe wd have been cut from about 800 to 200.

Saskatoon West would have been a relatively close loss and Sakatoon Grasswwod would be promising.

Wascana sheds most of its rural hinterland which both strengthens Ralph Goodale's hold and enhances NDP prospects if Goodale retires.

Qu'Appelle remains lagely unchanged. Unfortunately a large block of NDP polls in central Regina will continue to be overwhelmed by distant Conservative rural votes.

Palliser largely becomes the new Moose Jaw - Lake Centre. Without its Regina component a close NDP loss in 2011 would convert into a Conservative stranglehold.

I am very interested in the evolution of the future (perhaps) Wilder-Penfield riding in Montreal, if anyone wants to add to the following comments fromthe thread #4, with gray-shaded analysis by Stockholm, commented on further below by poster Love is free:

love is free Joined: May 21 2012 Send PM July 28, 2012 - 3:19pm (new) #100 Stockholm wrote:

Actually Brian Topp would be a very good fit for Wilder Penfield. Both his wife and his mother in law have run as NDP candidates in Westmount in the past...the only problem is that he doesn't have much profile in English Montreal right now not having lived there since the early 90s. Still it would be as good a place as any to make a stab. I suppose he might also want to run in a seat on the south shore where he grew up...

i think even mulcair himself would be defeated in the wilder penfield riding.  it's just not ndp-friendly the way either ndg or westmount-ville marie are individually.  and topp, he has absolutely no profile in montreal, apart from his run at the ndp leadership.  like he just doesn't live or work or even really visit the city in interesting ways, he's never been in the news (aside from the leadership run) and he's definitely not seen as being a montrealer (despite the fact that he grew up near to montreal and went to mcgill for undergrad).  i'm thinking this guy needs a safe ndp seat, or at least an ahuntsic (bq-held) or papineau (plc-held, but trudeau fils), where it's mostly immigrants.

re Wilder Penfield

although I would add that notoriety can be overrated: see the McGill Four of 2011 renown;

Topp has a name as a national backroom NDP notable and leadership guy; he gets in  the national media, although I would emphasize, not specifically identified as a Quebecer

Does that really matter?

Dave W enquires about the prospects in Wilder - Penfield. I posted this on July 19:

I fear that L is F is more accurate abt the new Wilder - Penfield riding than is Stockholm. 

Westmount - Ville Marie was one of the NDP's closest losses in the last election. This map reveals that it carried almost all of the riding outside the town of Westmount which went heavily Liberal:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/24075.html

The new riding excises everything east of Atwater and adds the NDG section of NDG-Lachine:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&province=QC

and finally, this map shows that the additions are also mostly Liberal:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/24045.html

The new riding would have voted Liberal by a fairly wide margin in 2011. Perhaps Mulcair's home town appeal might compensate but it will be an uphill climb.

The new riding seems to combine the most Liberal sections of NDG and Westmount and removes large areas that voted NDP in either Westmount - Ville Marie or NDG - Lachine. It is a much wealthier and more Anglophone riding than Westmount -Ville Marie.

I stress I have not actually transposed the votes but comparing the colour patterns on the maps is not encouraging.

Wilf Day wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

I think most of the voters in Palliser are now in Regina-Lewvan...the Consevative parts go into the new Tory sink hole of Moose Jaw-Lake Centee...

Thanks a lot thats where i live. And Regina-Lewvan only got half of Palliser's voters. The other half are in Moose Jaw.

Here's the problem: the present Cypress Hills--Grasslands has fewer people than any other riding in Saskatchewan, with only 0.826 quotients, 17.4% below. It must grow north or east.

If Cypress Hills – Grasslands is Cypress RHA plus the Sun West School Division, that's 75,577 people, 0.99 quotient. That’s 75% of Heartland RHA, including Kindersley, Rosetown and Biggar.

Then you could have a Five Hills—Last Mountain riding centred on Moose Jaw that takes in Assiniboia and Gravelbourg, plus the area up to Strasbourg and Raymore (14,000) and the area down around to Radville (5,000), 0.96 quotients. Then Souris - Moose Mountain needs only minor adjustments.

But if you keep the Commission's interesting Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt, then Cypress Hills – Grasslands has to grow east, and you end up with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan which includes 34,421 people in Moose Jaw (including the 1,147 in Moose Jaw RM), maybe 6,600 people in Regina suburbs, 6,500 people in Saskatoon suburbs, and another 23,485 in rural areas in between with no population centres except Watrous, Lanigan and Outlook. A bit of a dog's breakfast. But what's your alternative?

 

I agree that this new cut-up is way better overall for the NDP.

The new Manitoba and Prince Edward Island maps have been released.

No changes at all for PEI where all four ridings were already close to the quota.

Only modest changes for Manitoba with several ridings not changed at all and the rest minimally.

Arthur Cramer will be pleased to learn that Kevin Lameroux would have been narrowly defeated on the new boundaries.

Only Ontario remains outstanding.

David Young wrote:

I've seen a news story that some Conservative M.P.s from Saskatchewan don't like the new boundaries.

That's good enough for me to know that the Commission has done it's job!

 

They had a clip of Kelly Block on the radio and she was saying, "These new boundaries just don't make sense. Having purely urban boundaries will make it hard to stay in contact with the rural populations..." or something like that

She sounded completely incoherent!

theleftyinvestor wrote:

So, how about Nettie Wiebe for Saskatoon Centre-University? I've heard her in the media and I've been impressed. After three solid runs at it, I think she deserves to be the Linda Duncan of Saskatchewan :)

I worked on her last campaign, and met her again in Vancouver (and again again at the leadership convention). She is absolutely fantastic: articulate and very, very intelligent. I know I'm gushing, but she's dynamite. Block was and is a dunce compared to her.

I think (hope?) Nettie considers giving it another kick at the can in 2015 in Saskatoon Centre-University, especially since the stars would finally be aligning for her. She's a professor at one of the affiliated colleges of the U of S, which will only add to the left-leaning tendencies in the area. That, plus the not-too distant memory of her loss to Trost. Her contesting against Trost (and winning) would be very sweet. However, I suspect Trost will deny the NDP the pleasure and either skedaddle to Saskatoon-Grasswood, or out of town entirely to K-R-H (where he would have to fight it out with Vellacott, and possibly Block. Wouldn't I like to be a fly on the wall for *that* nomination meeting).

David Young wrote:

I've seen a news story that some Conservative M.P.s from Saskatchewan don't like the new boundaries.

That's good enough for me to know that the Commission has done it's job!

I am going to be fascinated – truly fascinated – to see exactly how many Tory MPs choose to either duke it out in an urban seat, or tussle for a nomination for a safer seat where other Tory MPs have the exact same idea as them.

I believe there is a review before it gets approved and it can be changed, but if the Tories manage to kill the Urban seats all hell will break loose, everyone with a brain in thier head knows Sask needs proper Urban seats.

Some scattered comments on the ongoing redistribution process:

1. 308.com has transposed actual votes for Newfoundand and Labrador and five seats in Northern New Brunswick. Avalon would be the only switch, from Lib to Con.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

2. The process so far has been quite favourable to the Cons, especially in BC. I have tried to get a fix on the new map by making crude comparisons with poll maps rather than minutely transposing votes. My best guesstimates:

N&L: C +1 from L (Avalon)

Quebec: C -1 to N (Levis) L + 1 new (GE Cartier), B -1 (Ahuntsic) +1 (Gaspesie), N - Lachine-NDG. + three new seats + Levis. Net C -1 N +3 L+1

Man: N + Winn N from Lib

Sask: N +2 from C (Sask C - University and Regina (Lewvan)

BC: C +3 from NDP (Delta, Southern Interior, New Westminster- Coquitlam) Although there are a number of close losses I don't see the NDP picking up any of the new seats on its 2011 vote. BC therefore goes from C 21 N12 L 2 G 1 to C 30 N 9 L 2 G1.

Net C + 14 L -1 N +3

3. Ontario gets 15 new seats. I wd not be suprised if the Cons wd have won a dozen of them We shd see the new boundaries any day now.

4. Altough these numbers may seem bleak, the true measure of a redistribution is how the seats will divide in a close election. British and Australian commentators always dwell on what swing would be reqired on the new map as compared to the old. The question therfore is not simply how many seats the parties wd have won if everone voted the same but how many if the parties were at level pegging?

In this regard the BC map may not be so bad. The Cons wd have won numerous seats on the new map by small margins. A smallish swing to the NDP cd deliver a windfall.

Nicky, the BQ would actually be down 1 overall in Quebec - they don't actually "gain" Gaspesie - they already hold half of that seat and it is merged with an NDP seat, so in fact its that the NDP loses a seat - but there no BQ gain. Also, don't forget that the Liberal riding of St. Leonard-St. Michel loses some very Liberal territory and adds a very large very NDP area that used to be in Hochelaga...its quite possible that this riding now flips from Liberal to NDP

I can't say for sure, but i think that the northern Saskatchewan seat that went Tory very narrowly last time might just flip to the NDP now since a heavily Tory community got moved out of the riding.

What is the last possible date Ontario can publish its maps?

Thank you. 

I wonder how many seats the NDP would win in this new map using Forums numbers instead of the 2011 election numbers.

I disagree with some of his assessments. I don't see the CPC going from 3rd to 1st place in Lac St. Louis as a result of relativly modest changes to that riding - none of which sudden;y draw in any mafor Tory stronghold. I'm also pretty sure that the NDP would notionally win ther new Maurice-Richard seat meaning the BQ loses one and also that NDP would win the new St. Leonard seat that takes in a very large chunk of Hochelaga.

By my calculation, the new QC map would go NDP 64, Libs 7, CPC 4, BQ 3

Not to mention some of our MPs might actually campaign in thier ridings this time ;p

Kidding aside as pressure to stop Harper builds during the election I can see seats gains.

Well obviously some voters in the cities chose the CPC, and those voters are apparently as represented as they can be by people who don't even show up for debates.

But the rest are not represented at all, and if I was a non-Con voter in a city with all-Con MPs, I would certainly trade down the number of ridings that include my city for a chance to be represented by either my MP or my neighbour's.

Mulcair told me himself of a sad fact about the last round of redistribution: Constituents who leaned NDP supported the rurban boundaries last time, and so they went along with taking the rurban seats. But they grossly underestimated the effect that a PC-Alliance merger would have on the NDP's ability to ever win any of those seats. So I would hope this time the response will be more balanced.

adma wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

But they grossly underestimated the effect that a PC-Alliance merger would have on the NDP's ability to ever win any of those seats. So I would hope this time the response will be more balanced.

Well, not only that: they grossly underestimated the utter cratering of NDP support in rural areas as well, i.e. that which turned Yorkton-Melville from Lorne Nystrom's stronghold to an absolute Conservative zone.  They were still operating under the fumes of past real-and-potential voting patterns.

Though who's to say that still isn't "recoverable", i.e. a redistribution calculated to provide a couple of safe seats, and the NDP winds up winning several others ("hey, voters: where were you when Jack was leader")

The last redistribution process was during 2002-3 - at that point the Cons were merged or about to do so, Reform had been renamed Alliance, and NDP had already fallen to third place in Yorkton-Melville against a 63% Alliance vote. So they already had that evidence in hand. Nystrom was in Regina-Qu'Apelle by then, and at 41.3% to the Alliance's 40.7% it was hardly a stronghold. Interestingly there was no PC candidate and the Alliance/Conservative vote went down in 2004, but a three-way split sent Andrew Scheer to office. Only in 2008 did Scheer start getting majorities.