quebec election - 04.09.2012

I'm 63, crippled with arthritis, and have been outside all day in cool weather doing both landscaping and renovations, and I'm too bloody sore and tired to get out and vote. I had to get someone to lift me up after I finished doing some work at the base of my garage just an hour ago. I'm going to bed, hope to wake up when the results are in.

The power went out at 530, I think everything's shut down without power, so I guess a few hundred or so people from Natashquan, Kegaska, and maybe further down the coast won't be voting in the dark.

Unionist wrote:

 

 it's [b]conceptually impossible[/b] to agree with a party on all issues except same-sex marriage. A party which wants to make it illegal - in Canada, in 2012 - must necessarily be the enemy of human rights on every imaginable front. For your friend to think that you, or he, could agree with any party on everything except that one issue shows the profound bullshit which is at work in such spurious arguments.

 

I agree, I actually believe it's impossible to agree with any political party on every single issue, period.  Although, I do believe a lot of Democrats in the last US election were in favour of gay marriage, and still supported that party, despite Obama being against it.  But even then, that wasn't the Democrats' official view, just the leader's view (Thank god he changed).  Even in Canada, many supporters of the Wildrose Party in Alberta probably agreed with the majority of their platform, but not with the leader's view in support of gay marriage.  So there are some instances, but there are no absolutes, in that all other issues were absolutely agreed upon except that specific issue.  It's likely there are others.

CAQ 29% and 6 leading so close to LIB and PQ 31% tied both 11 and 10

Khadir and David now both shown as leading in their ridings.  In Outremont, QS candidate Edith Laperle has moved into third, ahead of the Caquiste.

In Laurier-Dorion, QS candidate Andres Fontecila is one vote out of second place, in a genuine three-way contest with the PLQ and PQ candidates.

Khadir's now 20 points ahead in Mercier.  If he was in any OTHER party, the CBC would have called it for him by now.

Perhaps QS may end up holding the balance of power which would be sweet!

Right now it is

PQ - 60 + QS -2 = 62 seats

PLQ - 46 + CAQ - 17 = 63 seats

Total - 125 seats

Latest

PQ - 59 seats

PL - 46 seats

CA - 18 seats

QS - 2 seats

Total - 125 seats

PQ + QS = 61 seats

PL + CA = 64 seats

But don't forget the "Speaker"

Gouin

Number of polling stations: 32 / 154

Candidates / Political affiliation / Valid votes / Percentage of valid ballots (%)  / Majority

MajorityDavid, Françoise / Q.S. / 2,691 / 45.17% / 620

Girard, Nicolas / P.Q. / 2,071 / 34,76 % 

Duran, Anson P.L.Q./Q.L.P. / 588  / 9.87 %

Labadie, Bernard / C.A.Q.-É.F.L. / 521 / 8,74 %

Muldeen, Sameer / P.V.Q./G.P.Q. / 65 / 1.09 %

Guibord, Gilles / P.U.N. / 22 / 0,37 %

CBC STILL hasn't called Gouin for David.  What the hell are they waiting for?

Francoise David declared elected by the CBC

PQ has now slipped to 56, to the benefit of CAQ I believe. The prospect of QS balance of power is even dimmer now (some say for better, some say for worse). They'd have to rack up at least 5 turncoats.

Despite the absence of balance of power, do you think QS could press the PQ on electoral reform? I bet they could recruit the CAQ's support on that too.

I'm releaved its a Minority, which it should be given the next placed finisher is only 2 percent behind you and the third place finisher 5 percent behind you.

The PQ and CAQ got roughly what the polls said they basically would get within 1%, the PQ 32% and 27% for the CAQ, but I'm surprised by Liberals and QS.

I was expecting the Liberals to get 25 percent and QS to get 9 percent, yet it appears nearly 4 percent of QS's vote shifted to the Liberals which would be like the last place you'd expect it to go, QS worst enemy.

It could get worse if Charest keeps his seat and makes a deal with the CAQ for power.

Minorities in Quebec and Ontario.

If the election is sooner rather than later, will a half-baked NPDQ put candidates forward or wait one more election?

Probably wait given an election sooner would only lead to another minority and very broke oppentants.

If the minority falls too soon it would more likely be caught by a Liberal CAQ alliance instead of an election, so Marios is more likely to try and make things work.

Who do you think will be her dance partner CAQ or Liberals?

Jean-François Lisée was interviewed by CBC News. I like that he's a definitively progressive guy, even if I don't like the PQ all that much.

I quote: "The commitment is to table a new, renewed 21st-century Bill 101 within 100 days. That will be done, and we'll see how the CAQ and the Liberals react to measures that gather the support of a great majority of Quebecers. And second, on the referendum, the position was that we will respect the thought process of Quebecers on this issue. We will not impose a referendum that they don't want. We wish for Quebecers to wish for a referendum within 4 years, if I can put it this way, so we're at the same position now. I don't see a scenario where, let's say in 2 years, a majority of Quebecers want to be consulted on that issue, and the opposition refusing and paying the political cost. We still wish for it, and we'll still prepare for one, but there's no certainty. There wasn't yesterday, there isn't today." (and then goes on to talk about ethics)

Charest doesn't sound like he is resigning, despite the loss of his seat. His speech points out that there are Liberal MNAs in every region of the province and this is a minority government. He also points out that these results speak clearly to Quebec's future lying within Canada.

EDIT: Now it's at PQ 55, LIB 49. A 6-seat margin does not a massive mandate make.

Fuck Charest - the bastard is toast. That said, I don't really know what to expect now - if QS held the balance of power, we'd see progressive social policy from the PQ.

The corruption probe probably will sink the Liberals even further, so I very much doubt the Liberals will want another election anytime soon.

I'm really looking forward to a lot of analysis and announcements in the next few days and weeks.

ETA: Despite this being a very narrow minority win for Marois, I don't expect another election right away. Whoever forces another quick election would very likely be punished by the electorate. However - if there is another election within a year, I think we will finally see the Liberals decimated - partly because of the corruption probe.

Will it be a PLQ...CAQ coalition...or will they simply merge?

These are just the conditions needed to create "Union Nationale-The Next Generation".

Both of those parties have to be thinking it at this point, y'know. Charest is gone, and the CAQ and the PLQ have much more in common on the issues than not.  And the pathetically small number of Caquistes that managed to make it into the National Assembly probably don't relish the thought of an early election.

What any pro-merger types in those parties would be trying to calculate, at this point, is whether ALL the Caquiste MNA's would back a merged party or a coalition with the PLQ.  If Marois can peel off six of them, and that should be possible if they really are a party that contains candidates of significantly mixed ideology, she can win a motion of confidence in the National Assembly(if we assume the QS deputies would back the PQ in that situation, as we probably can).

It's clearly time for progressive Quebecers of all stripes to be very, very afraid, or at least very watchful.  This situation is deeply unpredictable.

Can the Liberals and the Coalition work together? 

If so, what is to prevent them both from voting non-confidence in the throne speech, defeating the PQ, and giving the LG a letter stating they have the numbers to govern, and taking over the government?

But who will lead the Liberals?

I presume Marois will get 1st kick at the can though - is that correct?

PL - 49 + CA - 19 = 68 seats (majority)

Or can the PQ with 55 seats find 8 others to work with them?

When does that corruption inquiry start?

When do the floor crossings start?

Lots of variables 

Ken Burch wrote:

Will it be a PLQ...CAQ coalition...or will they simply merge?

These are just the conditions needed to create "Union Nationale-The Next Generation".

Both of those parties have to be thinking it at this point, y'know. Charest is gone, and the CAQ and the PLQ have much more in common on the issues than not.  And the pathetically small number of Caquistes that managed to make it into the National Assembly probably don't relish the thought of an early election.

What any pro-merger types in those parties would be trying to calculate, at this point, is whether ALL the Caquiste MNA's would back a merged party or a coalition with the PLQ.  If Marois can peel off six of them, and that should be possible if they really are a party that contains candidates of significantly mixed ideology, she can win a motion of confidence in the National Assembly(if we assume the QS deputies would back the PQ in that situation, as we probably can).

It's clearly time for progressive Quebecers of all stripes to be very, very afraid, or at least very watchful.  This situation is deeply unpredictable.

I think what happened, and Charest eluded to this in his concession speech, is that the sovereignty issue hurt the left. If you look at the division along federalist/separatist votes, the federalist parties came out on top in both the seat count and the popular vote. And it was the left's to win, especially considering the student protests. And while it is good that Francoise David was elected, this is not exactly a good night for QS. Why wasn't QS able to capitalize on the energy and momentum of the student protests, and yet all the energy and change was directed towards the CAQ, which is offside in terms of public opinion on almost every position of importance to Quebeckers? The CAQ (like the NDP in 2011) gained momentum largely by putting constitutional issues to the back burner. Why did QS have to dig in on the sovereignty issue, especially with that stupid beaver ad?

I was very skeptical about Mulcair's idea of creating an NPD du Quebec when I first heard of it, and I still think there is a risk of losing energy by forcing people to chose between supporting a provincial NPD and another party, a choice which federal NPD supporters currently don't have to make. But in the aftermath, why not? Perhaps the NPD has the potential to appeal to supporters of QS, the PQ, the CAQ, and federalists and soft soveriegntists. Question is, could they get their act together quickly enough under the circumstances?

And now, the victory evacuation. (credit to @InklessPW)

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Will it be a PLQ...CAQ coalition...or will they simply merge?

These are just the conditions needed to create "Union Nationale-The Next Generation".

Both of those parties have to be thinking it at this point, y'know. Charest is gone, and the CAQ and the PLQ have much more in common on the issues than not.  And the pathetically small number of Caquistes that managed to make it into the National Assembly probably don't relish the thought of an early election.

What any pro-merger types in those parties would be trying to calculate, at this point, is whether ALL the Caquiste MNA's would back a merged party or a coalition with the PLQ.  If Marois can peel off six of them, and that should be possible if they really are a party that contains candidates of significantly mixed ideology, she can win a motion of confidence in the National Assembly(if we assume the QS deputies would back the PQ in that situation, as we probably can).

It's clearly time for progressive Quebecers of all stripes to be very, very afraid, or at least very watchful.  This situation is deeply unpredictable.

I think what happened, and Charest eluded to this in his concession speech, is that the sovereignty issue hurt the left. If you look at the division along federalist/separatist votes, the federalist parties came out on top in both the seat count and the popular vote. And it was the left's to win, especially considering the student protests. And while it is good that Francoise David was elected, this is not exactly a good night for QS. Why wasn't QS able to capitalize on the energy and momentum of the student protests, and yet all the energy and change was directed towards the CAQ, which is offside in terms of public opinion on almost every position of importance to Quebeckers? The CAQ (like the NDP in 2011) gained momentum largely by putting constitutional issues to the back burner. Why did QS have to dig in on the sovereignty issue, especially with that stupid beaver ad?

I was very skeptical about Mulcair's idea of creating an NPD du Quebec when I first heard of it, and I still think there is a risk of losing energy by forcing people to chose between supporting a provincial NPD and another party, a choice which federal NPD supporters currently don't have to make. But in the aftermath, why not? Perhaps the NPD has the potential to appeal to supporters of QS, the PQ, the CAQ, and federalists and soft soveriegntists. Question is, could they get their act together quickly enough under the circumstances?

I couldn't find Herbert column on a QNDP, but,I did find this.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1249820--hebert-queb...

This is no ringing endorsement of the PQ or seperatism.

And I agree QS shot itself in the foot with the beaver ad.