Latest USA polling results

Lots of blue recently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_polling_us_presidential_election...

US Election 2012

With Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Toss Ups / Req'd-to-Win Majority

Sep 19 / Pres / 247 / 191 / 100 / 270*

Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270

Sep 19 / Senate / 48 / 45 / 7 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51

Sep 19 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218**

Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218

Without Toss Ups

Date / Race / Dem / GOP  / Req'd to Win-Majority

Sep 19 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270

Sep 19 Senate / 52 / 48 / 51

Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51

Sep 19 / House / 

Sep 17 / House / 191 / 242 / 218

* These Electoral College vote projections, moreso than the popular vote, are the ones to watch in determining who will win the presidency.

** Even if all the House toss-ups go to the Democrats, which at this point is highly unlikely, the Democrats will not have control of the House as Nancy Pelosi suggested they would have last weekend on CNN.

www.realclearpolitics.com

1438

Was wondering where the increase of 10 Electoral College votes came from for Obama. 

It appears it was Wisconsin. 

So much for Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin boy bounce, eh!  

Marquette University poll released today = Obama ahead by 14%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Topline...

1533

Let's see how many times Rasmussen can bring the polling averages in Obama's favour down: 

One

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...

-----------------

Lots of blue these days!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_polling_us_presidential_election...

Another Senate seat in Nevada this time, has just moved from Republican to toss-up.

Obama 48 

Romney 44

Tossup 8

Total 100

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_hel...

Let's see how many times Rasmussen can bring the polling averages in Obama's favour down: 

Sep 20: One

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...

-----------------

This is too easy!

Sep 21: Two

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...

What about Gallup polling? They seem a little suspect as well as Rasmussen

Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/sept-20-obamas-convention-bounce-may-not-be-receding/?hp

In the 10 states that have generally been ranked the highest on our tipping-point list — Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan — there have been 21 such polls since the Democratic convention ended. Mr. Obama has led in all 21 of these surveys — and usually by clear margins. On average, he has held a six-point lead in these surveys, and he has had close to 50 percent of the vote in them.

Mr. Obama’s results have been more varied among polling firms that use different methodologies. A series of polls in eleven swing states, released on Thursday by the online firm YouGov, were fairly strong for Mr. Obama, putting him ahead among likely voters in all of the states except North Carolina.

But automated polls, like those from the Rasmussen Reports, have had lukewarm results for Mr. Obama. A Rasmussen Reports poll released on Thursday, for instance, put Mr. Obama three points behind in Iowa.

I don’t mean to keep repeating this point about polling methodologies, but it really does seem to be the easiest way to unpack the state-level data right now.

In contrast to the six-point lead Mr. Obama has held on average among the swing-state polls that included cellphones, and the five-point lead he had on average among the YouGov Internet surveys, Mr. Obama has been ahead by just two points on average in polls that called landlines only, most of which were “robopolls” conducted by automated script.

Intrade odds

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%

Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%

Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%

Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6% 

Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%

Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%

Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%

Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%

Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%

Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%

Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%

Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

1775

Obama leads by 4% in toss up state Florida.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_923.pdf

This is good:  

"Days Since Mitt Romney Stepped In It" Sign At Boston Campaign HQ Once Again Reset To "0"

http://www.intrade.com/v4/forum/?forum=/intradeForum/posts/preList/49407...

Why have the people in Mass, where Romney was Governor, turned against him?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ma/massachusetts_...

Why have the people in Michigan, the state where Romney was born, turned against him?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romne...

Why have the people in Wisconsin, where Paul Ryan is from, turned against the Republicans?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mn/minnesota_romn...

WebRepcurrentVotenoRatingnoWeight

Polls: Obama has lead in Ohio, slight edge in Fla.

Rasmussen and Gallup continue to drag down support for Obama in the polls

Obama +3.7%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...

Good

Picking Ryan has done little to win voters for Romney

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88...

Obama has opened up big leads in both Ohio & Florida this morning

Obama is not far away from that magic number of 270 seats, having picked up 18 votes in Ohio overnite

Electoral College

Date / Pollster / Obama / Romney / Toss Up / 

Sep 26 / RCP / 265 / 191 / 82

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_el...

Intrade odds

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%

Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%

Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46% 

Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7% 

Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%

Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%

Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%

Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%

Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%

Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%

Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6% 

Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%

Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%

Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%

Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%

Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%

Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%

Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%

Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

It appears that the magical whiz team of Ryan & Romney are in acute danger of being seriously smoked!  

If I were one of their financial backers I would giving thought to cutting my losses now.

Intrade odds

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 26 / 75.7% / +0.6% / 24.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 51%

Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%

Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%

Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46% 

Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7% 

Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%

Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%

Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%

Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%

Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%

Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%

Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6% 

Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%

Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%

Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%

Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%

Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%

Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%

Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%

Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

Intrade odds

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 26 / 75.8% / +0.1% / 24.5% / -0.2% / Obama by 51.3%

Sep 26 / 75.7% / +0.6% / 24.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 51%

Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%

Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%

Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46% 

Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7% 

Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%

Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%

Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%

Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%

Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%

Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%

Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6% 

Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%

Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%

Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%

Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%

Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%

Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%

Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%

Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

[/quote]

Republicans deluded by ‘skewed’ polls

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-republicans-delud...

It's not the polls, it's the policies.

Intrade odds

Date  /  Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 28 / 78.5% / +0.8% / 22.3% / -0.1% / Obama by 56.2%

Sep 27 / 77.8% / +0.9% / 22.4% / -0.5% / Obama by 55.4%

Sep 27 / 76.9% / +1.2% / 22.9% / -1.8% / Obama by 54%

Sep 26 / 75.7% / +0.6% / 24.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 51%

Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%

Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%

Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46% 

Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7% 

Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%

Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%

Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%

Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%

Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%

Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%

Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6% 

Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%

Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%

Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%

Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%

Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%

Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%

Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%

Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

Josh,

I hope I'm wrong. No question it would be very productive for the American people to rid themselves of Paul Ryan as Chair of the House Budget Committee.  

------------------

The change in these Intrade odds over the past 5 weeks are truly amazin' 

Intrade odds

Date / Obama / )-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference

Sep 28 / 79% / +0.5% / 21.1% / -0.8% / 57.9%

Aug 20  / 57% / -------------/ 41.6%   / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%

www.intrade.com

Presidential Polls Indicate Romney Losing: How Election 2012 Could Spark GOP Revolution

http://www.policymic.com/articles/15473/presidential-polls-indicate-romn...

The latest national polls reported by Real Clear Politics have Obama leading by four points. The Gallup poll has Obama leading by six and Fox has Obama up 5. RCP has changed the status of Ohio from battleground to leans Obama. The change gives Obama a projected265 electoral votes to 191 for Romney and reduces the number of battleground states to seven. No Republican president has ever won without Ohio and if this scenario holds true, Romney would have to win all of the other swing states in order to get to the required 270 electoral votes.

On Monday, Bill O’Reilly dedicated a segment of The O'Reilly Factor to poll science. He had Karl “The Architect” Rove explain the science of polling and go through countless scenarios of how Romney might win without Ohio. It was a hollow attempt at convincing the conservative viewing audience that all was not lost, but it came across as the latest indication of a campaign that is tethering on the edge.