Intrade
Democratic Pres nominee will take Ohio - 78.5%
Democratic Pres nominee will win Florida - 64.5%
Democratic Pres nominee will win Virginia - 70%
Democrats will control the Senate - 65.3%
Latest USA polling results
Sat, 2012-09-29 01:09
#102
Sun, 2012-09-30 22:00
#103
Intrade odds
Date / Obama / )-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference
Sep 30 / 75.2% / -3.8% / 24.4% / +3.7% / Obama by 50.8%
Sep 28 / 79% / Flatlined / 20.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 58.3%
Sep 28 / 79% / +0.5% / 21.1% / -0.8% / Obama by 57.9%
Aug 20 / 57% / -------------/ 41.6% / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%
Mon, 2012-10-01 17:45
#104
Romney has closed the gap by over 10% within the past 3 days. Or has he? These spreads are sure jumping around.
Intrade odds
Date / Obama / )-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference
Oct 1 / 75.1% / +0.9% / 24.9% / -1.5% / Obama by 50.2%
Oct 1 / 74.2% / -1.9% / 26.4% / +2.7% / Obama by 47.8%
Oct 1 / 76.1% / -0.2% / 23.7% / +0.7% / 52.4%
Sep 30 / 76.3% / +1.1% / 23% / -1.4% / Obama by 53.3%
Sep 30 / 75.2% / -3.8% / 24.4% / +3.7% / Obama by 50.8%
Sep 28 / 79% / Flatlined / 20.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 58.3%
Sep 28 / 79% / +0.5% / 21.1% / -0.8% / Obama by 57.9%
Aug 20 / 57% / -------------/ 41.6% / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%
Mon, 2012-10-01 17:48
#105
Boom Boom
CNN poll today: Romney more unpopular than GW Bush. 
Mon, 2012-10-01 17:53
#106
Tue, 2012-10-02 12:19
#107
As we all well know, our mainstream media thrives on BS, but as we stand today there is no contest. It does not mean things cannot change but right now Obama is a shoein for a second term.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-election-is-no-contest.html
Wed, 2012-10-03 22:25
#108
US Election - 2012 - Polling
With Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Toss Ups / Req'd to Win-Majority
Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270
Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51
Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218
Without Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Req'd to Win-Majority
Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51
Oct 2 / House / Not available
Sep 17 / House / Not available
US Election - 2012 - Gamblers
Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread
Oct 3 / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%
Oct 3 / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%
Oct 2 / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3%
Thu, 2012-10-04 20:43
#109
US Election - 2012 - Gamblers
Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread
Oct 4 / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%
Oct 3 / 67% / 32.9% / Obama by 34.1%
Oct 3 / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%
Oct 3 / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%
Oct 2 / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3%
Fri, 2012-10-12 12:34
#110
I think that this guy's horse race is way better than all the horse race reporting going on. The MSM media focus on polls and the "race" is a big part of the dysfunction in the political culture of liberal democracies.
So to inject a little levity I suggest that the whole US MSM is really just riding GANGNAM style.
http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2012/10/12/Gangnam-Style/
Fri, 2012-10-12 15:03
#111
US Election - 2012 - Polling
With Toss Ups
Date / Pres / Dem / Rep / Tossups / Required to Win
Oct 11 / Pres / 201 / 181 / 156 / 270
Oct 5 / Pres / 251 / 181 / 106 / 270
Oct 4 / Pres / 269 / 181 / 88 / 270
Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270
Oct 11 / Senate / 46 / 43 / 11 / 51
Oct 5 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Oct 4 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51
Oct 11 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 5 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 4 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218
Without Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Required to Win
Oct 11 / Pres / 294 / 244 / 270
Oct 5 / Pres / 303 / 235 / 270
Oct 4 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 11 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 5 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 4 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51
Oct 11 / House / Not available
Oct 4 / House / Not available
Sep 17 / House / Not available
US Election - 2012 - Gamblers
Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread
Oct 12 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Dems by 22.9%
Oct 11 / 63.4% / 36.9% / Dems by 26.5%
Oct 11 / Pres / 63.3% / 37.6% / Obama by 25.7%
Oct 11 / Pres / 61.9% / 38.1% / Obama by 23.8%
Oct 11 / 62.0% / 37.9% / Obama by 24.1%
Oct 10 / 63.1% / 36.9% / Obama by 26.2%
Oct 5 / 67.5% / 32.8% / Obama by 34.7%
Oct 5 / 69.0% / 30.1% / Obama by 38.9%
Oct 4 / Pres / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%
Oct 3 / Pres / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%
Oct 3 / Pres / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%
Oct 2 / Pres / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3%
Presidential Forecast
Date / Dem / GOP / Diifference / Required to Win
Oct 11 / 289.9 / 248.1 / Dem by 41.8 / 270
Oct 4 / 321.2 / 236.8 / Dem by 84.4 / 270
Chance of Winning
Date / Dem / GOP / Difference /
Oct 11 / 66.1% / 33.9% / Dem by 32.2%
Oct 4 / 87.1% / 12.9% / Dem by 74.2%
Popular Vote
Date / Dem / GOP / Difference
Oct 11 / 50.0% / 48.9% / Dem by 1.1%
Oct 4 / 51.6% / 47.3% / Dem by 2.7%
3015
Fri, 2012-10-12 15:37
#112
Things have changed since the 1st presidential debate.
Date / Pollster / Dem / GOP / Difference
Oct 12 / Gallup / 47% / 49% / GOP by 2%
Oct 9 / Gallup / 47% / 49% / GOP by 2%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx
Fri, 2012-10-12 15:43
#113
Intrade odds
Date / Obama / O-Change / Romney / R-Change / Difference
Sep 27 / 77.8% / +0.9% / 22.4% / -0.5% / Obama now by 55.4%
Sep 27 / 76.9% / +1.2% / 22.9% / -1.8% / Obama by a staggering 54% margin
Sep 26 / 75.7% / +0.6% / 24.7% / -0.4% / Obama by 51%
Sep 26 / 75.1% / +0.7% / 25.1% / +0.1% / Obama by 50%
Sep 26 / 74.4% / +1.4% / 25% / -2.0% / Obama by 49.4%
Sep 25 / 73% / +0.1% / 27% / -0.2% / Obama by 46%
Sep 25 / 72.9% / +0.9% / 27.2% / -0.3% / Obama's by 45.7%
Sep 25 / 72% / Flatlined / 27.5% / -0.3% / Obama by 44.5%
Sep 24 / 72% / +0.8% / 27.8% / +0.2% / Obama by 44.2%
Sep 24 / 71.2% / +0.1% / 27.6% / -0.9% / Obama by 43.6%
Sep 23 / 71.1% / +0.2% / 28.5% / -0.5% / Obama by 42.6%
Sep 23 / 70.9% / +0.7% / 29.0% / -0.4% / Obama by 41.9%
Sep 23 / 70.2% / Flatlined / 29.4% / -0.2% / Obama by 40.8%
Sep 22 / 70.2% / -1.4% / 29.6% / +0.9% / Obama by 40.6%
Sep 21 / 71.6% / -1.0% / 28.7% / +1.6% / Obama by 42.9%
Sep 21 / 72.6% / +2.7% / 27.1% / -2.9% / Obama by 45.5%
Sep 21 / 69.9% / +0.4% / 30.0% / -0.5% / Obama by 39.9%
Sep 20 / 69.5% / +2.5% / 30.5% / -2.2% / Obama by 39%
Sep 19 / 67% / -1.3% / 32.7% / +0.6% / Obama by 34.3%
Sep 18 / 68.3% / +0.3% / 32.1% / -0.2% / Obama by 36.2%
Sep 18 / 68% / +0.6% / 32.3% / -0.2% / Obama by 35.7%
Sep 18 / 67.4% / +1.2% / 32.5% / -1.2% / Obama by 34.9%
Aug 20 / 57% / -------------/ 41.6% / -------------/ Obama by 15.4%
Fri, 2012-10-12 15:46
#114
Are polls "biased" to boost Obama?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520950/are-polls-biased-to-boost-o...
Sat, 2012-10-13 11:51
#115
Sun, 2012-10-14 04:06
#116
no question that Romney is having an October surge:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_electi...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_el...
but if those always held, President Kerry might be watching from the sidelines, perhaps after 2 terms, as his successors battled it out ....
Sun, 2012-10-14 10:40
#117
US Election - 2012 - Polling
With Toss Ups
Date / Pres / Dem / Rep / Tossups / Required to Win
Oct 11 / Pres / 201 / 181 / 156 / 270
Oct 5 / Pres / 251 / 181 / 106 / 270
Oct 4 / Pres / 269 / 181 / 88 / 270
Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270
Oct 11 / Senate / 46 / 43 / 11 / 51
Oct 5 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Oct 4 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51
Oct 11 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 5 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 4 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218
Without Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Required to Win
Oct 11 / Pres / 294 / 244 / 270
Oct 5 / Pres / 303 / 235 / 270
Oct 4 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 11 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 5 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 4 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51
Oct 11 / House / Not available
Oct 4 / House / Not available
Sep 17 / House / Not available
US Election - 2012 - Gamblers
Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread
Oct 14 / 61.1% / 38.5% / 22.6%
Oct 13 / 59.4% / 40.7% / 18.7%
Oct 12 / 61.2% / 38.9% / Dems by 22.3%
Oct 12 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Dems by 22.9%
Oct 11 / 63.4% / 36.9% / Dems by 26.5%
Oct 11 / Pres / 63.3% / 37.6% / Obama by 25.7%
Oct 11 / Pres / 61.9% / 38.1% / Obama by 23.8%
Oct 11 / 62.0% / 37.9% / Obama by 24.1%
Oct 10 / 63.1% / 36.9% / Obama by 26.2%
Oct 5 / 67.5% / 32.8% / Obama by 34.7%
Oct 5 / 69.0% / 30.1% / Obama by 38.9%
Oct 4 / Pres / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%
Oct 3 / Pres / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%
Oct 3 / Pres / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%
Oct 2 / Pres / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3%
Presidential Forecast
Date / Dem / GOP / Diifference / Required to Win
Oct 13 / 283.1 / 254.9 / 28.2
Oct 11 / 289.9 / 248.1 / Dem by 41.8 / 270
Oct 4 / 321.2 / 236.8 / Dem by 84.4 / 270
Chance of Winning
Date / Dem / GOP / Difference
Oct 13 / 61.1% / 38.9% / 22.2%
Oct 11 / 66.1% / 33.9% / Dem by 32.2%
Oct 4 / 87.1% / 12.9% / Dem by 74.2%
Popular Vote
Date / Dem / GOP / Difference
Oct 13 / 49.8% / 49.1% / 0.3%
Oct 11 / 50.0% / 48.9% / Dem by 1.1%
Oct 4 / 51.6% / 47.3% / Dem by 2.7%
Sun, 2012-10-14 10:45
#118
Obama might be the best candiate, but still really nothing more than a mini-Bush.
Sun, 2012-10-14 12:16
#119
Sun, 2012-10-14 12:32
#120
US Election - 2012 - Polling
With Toss Ups
Date / Pres / Dem / Rep / Tossups / Required to Win
Oct 11 / Pres / 201 / 181 / 156 / 270
Oct 5 / Pres / 251 / 181 / 106 / 270
Oct 4 / Pres / 269 / 181 / 88 / 270
Oct 2 / Pres / 265 / 191 / 82 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 237 / 191 / 110 / 270
Oct 11 / Senate / 46 / 43 / 11 / 51
Oct 5 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Oct 4 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Oct 2 / Senate / 47 / 43 / 10 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 48 / 46 / 6 / 51
Oct 11 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 5 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 4 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Oct 2 / House / 183 / 226 / 26 / 218
Sep 17 / House / 183 / 229 / 23 / 218
Without Toss Ups
Date / Race / Dem / GOP / Required to Win
Oct 11 / Pres / 294 / 244 / 270
Oct 5 / Pres / 303 / 235 / 270
Oct 4 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 2 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Sep 17 / Pres / 332 / 206 / 270
Oct 11 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 5 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 4 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Oct 2 / Senate / 52 / 48 / 51
Sep 17 / Senate / 49 / 51 / 51
Oct 11 / House / Not available
Oct 4 / House / Not available
Sep 17 / House / Not available
US Election - 2012 - Gamblers
Date / Race / Dem / Rep / Spread
Oct 13 / 59.4% / 40.7% / 18.7%
Oct 12 / 61.2% / 38.9% / Dems by 22.3%
Oct 12 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Dems by 22.9%
Oct 11 / 63.4% / 36.9% / Dems by 26.5%
Oct 11 / Pres / 63.3% / 37.6% / Obama by 25.7%
Oct 11 / Pres / 61.9% / 38.1% / Obama by 23.8%
Oct 11 / 62.0% / 37.9% / Obama by 24.1%
Oct 10 / 63.1% / 36.9% / Obama by 26.2%
Oct 5 / 67.5% / 32.8% / Obama by 34.7%
Oct 5 / 69.0% / 30.1% / Obama by 38.9%
Oct 4 / Pres / 65.8% / 34.9% / Obama by 30.9%
Oct 3 / Pres / 66.2% / 33.9% / Obama by 32.3%
Oct 3 / Pres / 70.3% / 29.8% / Obama by 40.5%
Oct 2 / Pres / 74.2% / 25.9% / Obama by 48.3%
Presidential Forecast
Date / Dem / GOP / Diifference / Required to Win
Oct 13 / 283.1 / 254.9 / 28.2
Oct 11 / 289.9 / 248.1 / Dem by 41.8 / 270
Oct 4 / 321.2 / 236.8 / Dem by 84.4 / 270
Chance of Winning
Date / Dem / GOP / Difference
Oct 13 / 61.1% / 38.9% / 22.2%
Oct 11 / 66.1% / 33.9% / Dem by 32.2%
Oct 4 / 87.1% / 12.9% / Dem by 74.2%
Popular Vote
Date / Dem / GOP / Difference
Oct 13 / 49.8% / 49.1% / 0.3%
Oct 11 / 50.0% / 48.9% / Dem by 1.1%
Oct 4 / 51.6% / 47.3% / Dem by 2.7%
Mon, 2012-10-15 00:09
#121
Yes Obama has been dropping recently in the polls and the gamblers' spread but.....
The Gamblers
Date / Obama / Romney / Spread
Oct 14 / 61.8% / 38.7% / Obama by 23.1%
Oct 14 / 61.5% / 38.6% / Obama by 22.9%
Oct 14 / 61.1% / 38.6% / Obama by 22.5%
Aug 20 / 57% / 41.6% / Obama by 15.4%
3553
Mon, 2012-10-15 04:17
#122
incumbent Presidents are usually re-elected -- they have many advantages, esp. visibility -- unless the economy is stagnant and not visibly improving (Jimmy Carter) and/or there is also a 3rd-party challenger (Carter, Bush I certainly; perhaps also Clinton/Gore)
Obama should hold Ohio, given the rebound in employment in autos/the Toledo region, and that could well tip the balance, although he is doing historically well in traditional Republican states like Colorado and Arizona, while Florida is a toss-up...
Wed, 2012-10-17 10:32
#123
Whoo! Hoo!
The Gamblers
Date / Obama / Romney / Spread
Oct 17 / 65.0% / 35.0% / Obama by 30.0%
Oct 16 / 60.6% / 39.3% / Obama by 21.3%
Aug 20 / 57% / 41.6% / Obama by 15.4%
3517
Fri, 2012-10-19 10:46
#124
Somebody or maybe everybody, is wrong
Oct 19 / 291.6 / 246.4
Oct 19 / 70.4 / 29.6
Oct 19 50.3 / 48.8
Oct 19 / 281 / 257
Oct 19 / 62.4% / 37.5%
3818
Sat, 2012-10-20 08:54
#125
Thu, 2012-10-25 02:09
#126
Canada has it's "everyone is out of step" except Nanos, and the USA has Ramussen & Gallup. Go figure.
BTW that Gallup lead for Romney has shrunk from 7% to 3% in less than a week, and Obama is now leading in Ohio by 5% according to Time pollsters.
Sat, 2012-10-27 21:24
#127
Barring some major voter fraud, which is unheard of in the USA as per the Texas Attorney General who does not want international scrutineers, it appears Obama has a lock on getting re-elected.
63.3% vs 36.7% or Obama by 26.6%
Now for the races to control Congress.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senat...
4039
Sun, 2012-10-28 11:06
#128
US presidential candidate Canadian preference
Obama / Romney / Neither / Dunno
total 76% 13% 7% 3%
18-34 75% 11% 8% 6%
35-44 76% 11% 10% 2%
45-54 76% 17% 5% 2%
55-64 76% 13% 7% 4%
65+ 78% 15% 4% 2%
Male 73% 18% 7% 2%
Female 80% 9% 7% 5%
Atlantic 80% 12% 7% 2%
Quebec 87% 5% 4% 4%
Ontario 72% 16% 8% 4%
Prairies 69% 16% 15% 0%
Alberta 74% 18% 5% 2%
BC 71% 17% 9% 4%
for more info here:
https://forumresearch.ca/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/23440_Can...
Thu, 2012-11-01 01:50
#129
It's crunch time folks, and as we approach next Tuesday, November 6, Obama's spread advantage over Romney with the oddsmakers is substantially enlarging, closing in on 40% now.
Oct 27: 63.3% vs 36.7% or Obama by 26.6%
Oct 31: 68.7% vs 31.3% or Obama by 37.4%
Thu, 2012-11-01 06:51
#130
I will not link to Karl Rove's piece in the Wall Street Journal today, to not give it any extra hits,
but suffice it to say that he notes many recent close-race national polls and concludes the late-deciders are breaking for Romney: 51-48 the result, he "predicts"; bookmark that one
Meanwhile RealClearPolitics shows that almost all of the big flip states -- Pennsylvania, Ohio -- remain solidly Obama, and even Virginia and Florida too close to call ...
I still say Obama: incumbents get re-elected unless things are perceived as terrible (cf. Carter), and this economy is clearly better for key demographics, esp. industrial workers in the Midwest
go, Mr. O. 
Thu, 2012-11-01 14:50
#131
It's a beautiful day for the race
Stooge Hand is the favorite today
Assault is in there
Dog Biscuit is 3 to 1
Safety Pin has been scratched
Ya ya
And at 20 to 1 ... Beetlebomb
What a great horse race.
Thu, 2012-11-01 16:49
#132
... it's still Easy-Goer by a length or 2:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electo...
Thu, 2012-11-01 17:51
#133
I wouldn't say any of it is easy or certain. All of it comes down to next Tuesday, and there is still plenty of room for things to go sideways.
Me, I'm starting to feel like this kid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OjrthOPLAKM
Thu, 2012-11-01 23:56
#134
I wouldn't say any of it is easy or certain. All of it comes down to next Tuesday, and there is still plenty of room for things to go sideways.
Me, I'm starting to feel like this kid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OjrthOPLAKM
That reminds me of when I was a kid, and the TV premiere of Battlestar Galactica, which I was VERY excited about for reasons that now elude me, was interrupted for live coverage of the signing of the Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt. And the speeches of Begin, Carter, and Sadat just went on and on. And on.
I was fairly politially savvy, by pre-teen standards, but I could not get my head around how BATTLESTAR GALACTICA could be tossed into the bin for the signing of some peace-treaty. I told my father there must be a mistake, maybe the network was running the same report over and over again? No, he told me, you just don't understand, this is more important than Battlestar Galactica.
If I recall correctly, they never got back to Battlestar Galactica that evening. I think I lost interest in it fairly shortly afterwards.
Fri, 2012-11-02 00:30
#135
Hm. I think I have to stand corrected. According to wiki, the pilot of BG was resumed after the Camp David coverage was finished.
Fri, 2012-11-02 12:31
#136
back to the subject, polls;
Mr. O lookin' good, I would say:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109473/daily-breakdown-obama-enters-...
Fri, 2012-11-02 17:40
#137
And we know what Rasmussen is up to.
Fri, 2012-11-02 17:51
#138
Sat, 2012-11-03 10:23
#139
... I was just going to post that; the comments at end are very interesting, too
in the I-told-you-so dept.: there are just so many Republican commentators being posted at RealClearPolitics saying: Obama really blew his popular support this way and that, it could never work, the American people bla bla ... etc etc.
by contrast, this is a very astute guy, calling it for Romney:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-han...
I will hold on until the final whistle sounds, but still lookin' good right now for a few nyah-nyahs post-election
Sat, 2012-11-03 13:15
#140
DaveW
There is going to be a lot of soul-searching in the GOP after this election to try and understand how the party to abolish slavery has morphed into a white people only party.
If Obama handles it properly the Dems should be able to pick up control of the House in 2014.
The important message coming out of this election from the Dems should be that the American people have rejected the right-wing meanness of the Paul Ryans of this world.
Sat, 2012-11-03 14:49
#141
The only reason the Romney / Ryan / Republican / GOP camp are afraid is that Nate is exposing their attempted manipulation of the voters
Hey, hacks: Nate Silver’s not taking your job
Pundits appear especially threatened by the New York Times math wiz this election cycle. Why are they so scared?
Sat, 2012-11-03 15:02
#142
DaveWThere is going to be a lot of soul-searching in the GOP after this election to try and understand how the party to abolish slavery has morphed into a white people only party.
If Obama handles it properly the Dems should be able to pick up control of the House in 2014.
The important message coming out of this election from the Dems should be that the American people have rejected the right-wing meanness of the Paul Ryans of this world.
The Democrats need that soul-searching as well, because they are just going to deliver on the Republican agenda anyways. Remember how Bush failed to privatize social security but Obama himself put that option back on the table?
Sun, 2012-11-04 11:48
#143
Repreat after me: "This is all Paul Ryan's fault" 
electoral college
290 vs 248
senate
54 vs 46 (+1 for Dems)
house
178 vs 224 
Mon, 2012-11-05 17:37
#144
With less than 3 days to go still looking good for Obama!
306.9 +11.4 vs 231
85.1 +11.5 vs 14.9
50.6 +0.3 vs 48
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-...
65.7 vs 31.3, Obama ahead by 34.4
Mon, 2012-11-05 17:38
#145
70.3 vs 29.9 Obama by 40.4
Mon, 2012-11-05 18:10
#146
The popular vote seems to be moving in Obama's direction the last 48 hours. ABC's final tracker has Obama up 50-47. Three days ago it was Romney 49-48. Polls in the battleground are also looking fairly good. But it's still close.
Mon, 2012-11-05 23:53
#147
Monday evening update: Nate Silver pushes Obama’s chances above 90 percent
UPDATED: The 10 p.m. numbers from every Democrat's favorite stats geek show dramatic new movement to the president
Silver’s widely respected because he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, along with all of the year’s Senate elections, and came within percentage points of predicting the popular vote.
Other results from Silver’s Monday evening update:
* He predicts Obama will win 314.4 electoral votes, to 223.6 for Mitt Romney.
* Silver also has Obama winning the popular vote, with 50.9 percent to Romney’s 48.2.
* Among swing states, Silver has turned Florida blue. He has Obama as a 52.5 percent favorite there. Obama is also favored to take Virginia (80.3 percent), Colorado (80.3 percent), Ohio (91.2 percent), New Hampshire (84.9 percent) and Iowa (85 percent).
* Silver installed Romney as a 72.4 percent favorite in North Carolina.
Tue, 2012-11-06 14:16
#148
Fun and user friendly site where you can make your own electoral college map.
Playing around with it you can definitely see how Obama has more paths to victory.
Here is my prediction:
Tue, 2012-11-06 14:56
#149
Date / Time / Obama / Romney / Spread
Nov 6 / 12:05 PM PT / 72% / 28% / 44%
Nov 6 / 10:05 AM PT / 69.6% / 30.3% / 39.3%
Nov 6 / 8:35 AM PT / 73.7% / 26.5% / 47.2%
Nov 6 / 8:30 AM PT / 73.2% / 26.9% / 46.3%
Nov 6 / 72.5% / 27.5% / Obama by 45.0%
Nov 5 / 70.3% / 40.4% / Obama by 29.9%
Nov 5 / 65.7% / 34.4% / Obama by 31.3%
Tue, 2012-11-06 15:19
#150
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Tue, 2012-11-06 15:57
#151
Date / Time / Obama / Romney / Spread
Nov 6 / 12:55 PM PT / 69.9% / 29.9% / 40%
Nov 6 / 12:05 PM PT / 72% / 28% / 44%
Nov 6 / 10:05 AM PT / 69.6% / 30.3% / 39.3%
Nov 6 / 8:35 AM PT / 73.7% / 26.5% / 47.2%
Nov 6 / 8:30 AM PT / 73.2% / 26.9% / 46.3%
Nov 6 / 72.5% / 27.5% / Obama by 45.0%
Nov 5 / 70.3% / 40.4% / Obama by 29.9%
Nov 5 / 65.7% / 34.4% / Obama by 31.3%