BC Election 2013 Projection
If I understand Roundabout correctly they are saying that they have not taken the events of the past week into consideration with their current projections, that they don't think the BC Liberals can do anything to save the sinking ship,and even changing their Leader is not going to cut it, and that we should expect to see an increase in support for the Cons in the next series of polls.
Roundabout needs to proofread as I think they left a word out of their first sentence. There is at least one mistake later on as well
Roundabout does believe the BC Liberals can comeback from them, even with anew leader.
Let them know the grammar police are on patrol. ;)
Their polling is probably a little dated by now. 
Polling is always dated.
- dated Feb 25/13 and before the roof caved in on Christy.
UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election
Popular Vote
Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /
2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%
2013 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%
Seats
Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total
2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85
2013 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Current Prediction of Majority Government
NDP - 92.2%
Oths - 4.8%
Libs - 3%
I'm a little puzzled by why the seat projection for the BC Cons is listed as having a high projection of 1 seat in 1 column but 7 seats in the colum to that column's right. Is that just a typo?
I don't think so.
The numbers within the gray boxes reflect the forecasts for the May 14, 2013 election, while the numbers within the white box reflects the likely outcomes of an election held as of the last day of polling.
A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probability forecasts are calculated can be here.
BC Riding Projections
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Irts0gp9riM/USughmmavCI/AAAAAAAANyY/XjX3qg1mPR...
23 seats for the Liberals?
Wouldn't that be a miracle!
.
I think this election, although at the moment looks quite promising, is still far from a shoo-in. The mainstream press are no friend of the NDP and the moment there is any kind of screwup leading up to the election the press will pounce. Just as Bob Rae and his cohorts feed the Canadian mainstream press on a daily press, Rae's brothers and sisters in the BC Liberals are doing the same thing in BC, to try and discredit their opponents.
Election Prediction website run by a Liberal and seems to be woefully out of date, so it would appear to be basically a Liberal propaganda site.
BC Election Prediction Project
Waiting for the next polls, but look at the change in forecast in popular vote for the Cons in one day who are now only about 10% behind the Liberals:
UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election
Popular Vote
Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /
2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%
Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9%
Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%
Seats
Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total
2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85
Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php
The Conservatives continue to close the gap with the Liberals which is now only 7.3%
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UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election
Popular Vote
Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /
2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%
Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9% (Libs lead over Cons now only 7.3%)
Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9% (Libs lead over Cons = 10.5%)
Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3% (Libs lead over Cons = 16%)
Seats
Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total
2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85
Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85
Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Majority Government
Date / NDP / Libs / Oth
Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%
http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php
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Interesting' how strong the BC Cons are showing in the UBC Election Predictor Popular vote now, and it is also showing them winning 4 seats in the seat forecast.
UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election
Popular Vote
Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /
2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%
Mar 15 '13 / 42.7% / 29.9% / 14% / 10.6% / 2.9%
Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9%
Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9% (Libs lead over Cons = 10.5%)
Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3% (Libs lead over Cons = 16%)
Seats
Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total
2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85
Mar 15 '13 / 54 /22 / 4 / 2 / 3
Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85
Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Majority Government
Date / NDP / Libs / Oth
Mar 15 '13 / 86.8% / 6.3% / 6.9%
Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%
http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php
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I'm wondering if this UBC election predictor is similiar to that gambler's website which showed a very close race in the USA until around 4 PM on the actual voting day. In other words it was a scam by the rich to try and suggest the right-wing party had a lot more strength than it actually had, in an effort to try and manipulate voters.
Not sure if it's exactly a scam, though I would guess the investors in the UBC-ESM aren't likely to be on the left. With two months to go before the election, predictions of the Cons and Greens winning seats could just reflect speculation on the likelihood of their vote picking up in the interim. Cynically/realistically, it wouldn't take all that much money to artificially inflate their chances.
I can't quite imagine which four seats the conservatives are supposed to win, though.
.
NDP - 57 seats
Libs - 18 seats
Cons - 4 seats
Ind - 4 seats
Grns - 2 seats
Total - 85 seats
Beyond the NDP winning- there is a huge volatility behind what drives the number of seats in the end.
Someone is going to be right.
A bunch of other people will have egg on the face- as in WAY off.
Does anyone know if Hill & Knowlton will have an election predictor for BC 2013? I know they had one for Alberta last year.
Its an interesting website.
I can't quite imagine which four seats the conservatives are supposed to win, though.
Kelowna?
thetyee.ca is going to be having individual riding projections in their BC election map & guide section which may well be the most accurate of all.
I can't quite imagine which four seats the conservatives are supposed to win, though.
Kelowna?
Well, perhaps, but since I'm from that area, I'd hope not! Fortunately, there are only three seats in Kelowna....
Cons have risen to 5 seats in the latest UBC election predictor stats.
UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election
Popular Vote
Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /
2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%
Mar 19 '13 / 38.7% / 32.8% / 15.5% / 10.3% / 2.7%
Mar 18 '13 / 42.7% / 31.9% / 14% / 9.2% / 2.2%
Mar 15 '13 / 42.7% / 29.9% / 14% / 10.6% / 2.9%
Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9%
Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9%
Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%
Seats
Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total
2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85
Mar 18 '13 / 56 / 20 / 5 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 15 '13 / 54 /22 / 4 / 2 / 3 / 85
Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85
Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Majority Government
Date / NDP / Libs / Oth
Mar 19 '13 / 91.1% / 3.8%
Mar 18 '13 / 87.9% / 5.1% / 7%
Mar 15 '13 / 86.8% / 6.3% / 6.9%
Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%
http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php
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558
NDP - 61 seats
Libs - 19 seats
Ind - 2 seats
Grns - 1 seat
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html
March 17, 2013
NDP - 61 seats
Libs - 19 seats
Ind - 4 seats
Grns - 1 seat
Total - 85 seats
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html
I predict the Liberals will get less than 19 seats and the BC Cons are going to win a few seats. The Greens will get the goose egg.
I tend to agree with you.
My forecast
NDP - 67 seats
Libs - 11 seats
Cons - 5 seats
Ind - 2 seats
Grn - 0 seats
Total - 85 seats
Angus Reid Poll – NDP 48, BCL 28, GRN 11, CON 11
NDP - 76 seats
Libs - 8 seats
Ind - 1 seat
Total - 85 seats
http://bc2013.com/2013/03/21/angus-reid-poll-ndp-48-bcl-28-grn-11-con-11/
Conservatives appear to be picking up strength, here at least with the gamblers, and have risen from 3 seats on March 10th, to 6 seats on March 21st, in the latest UBC election predictor stats. This may prove to be significant, and the death knell for the BC Liberals.
UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election
Popular Vote
Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /
2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%
Mar 22 '13 / 44.6% / 30.6% / 15.4% / 7.6% / 1.8%
Mar 21 '13 / 41.8% / 31.8% / 15.5% / 8.5% / 2.4%
Mar 19 '13 / 38.7% / 32.8% / 15.5% / 10.3% / 2.7%
Mar 18 '13 / 42.7% / 31.9% / 14% / 9.2% / 2.2%
Mar 15 '13 / 42.7% / 29.9% / 14% / 10.6% / 2.9%
Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9%
Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9%
Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%
Seats
Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total
2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85
Mar 22 '13 / 54 / 21 / 6 / 2 / 2 / 85
Mar 21 '13 / 55 / 21 / 6 / 1 / 2 / 85
Mar 18 '13 / 56 / 20 / 5 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 15 '13 / 54 /22 / 4 / 2 / 3 / 85
Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85
Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85
Majority Government
Date / NDP / Libs / Oth
Mar 21 '13 / 91.4% / 3.5% / 5.2%
Mar 19 '13 / 91.1% / 3.8%
Mar 18 '13 / 87.9% / 5.1% / 7%
Mar 15 '13 / 86.8% / 6.3% / 6.9%
Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/prediction-markets/
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