Labrador By-Election

Sun, 2013-03-17 01:51

kropotkin1951

Lets just forgo democracy and have a one party state since if you are not NDP you are immoral at best and likely far worse.

I have never voted Liberal and I never will but I know many people I respect who have worked for that party and they believe in many good things. And Arthur those Liberals would not vote for the NDP anymore than you would vote for the Liberals. You were a supporter of a third party for a long time and you never switched but somehow when the NDP gets into second place you expect other people to abandon their life long beliefs. Give your head a shake and try to wake up and stop being so vile in your partisanship. I think that was what Jack was trying to convey. He wanted to work with the Liberals remember. He didn't call them all cheats and liars just because of their party affiliation. His Dad was a Conservative MP and Minister so maybe he understood something that you don't quite grasp. There are crooked politicians in most parties but there are also sincere honest people running for all parties.

I have listened to the NDP in my province justify lowering welfare rates, freezing services for people with developmental disabilities and other obnoxious neo-con policies because they had to balance a budget. The NDP are not fucking saints they run from the left and they have governed from the center in every province where they have formed government in the last 25 years.

I still normally vote for them but I respect other peoples right to disagree with my politics and I don't do character assassinations based only on the party they support. I will vote for the BC NDP in May but I cannot say I will vote for anyone federally and I have voted in every election since 1972. Yes Tom will be better than Steve but I don't believe or participate in the politics of the lesser evil when that lesser evil still agrees to bomb other people with my tax dollars. Some things are important to me even though they are not to the majority of NDP members and the leader.

Sun, 2013-03-17 02:04

#53

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I never said people shouldn't vote their concience. But my point simply is these people have had their chance and screwed things up while sticking it to oridinary Canadians. This is historical fact. I didn't make it up and I am not answerable for their bad decisions. They are as much accoutable as anyone. I am sick of being tired of being told I am "vile".

Fine, I'm taking a break for a while. Its all yours. Have fun.

Sun, 2013-03-17 02:36

#54

kropotkin1951

The BC NDP told me when my son turned 19 that there were no services available to him as an adult. His services through the children's Ministry ended on his birthday and there was a freeze on new services and that included the services he needed as an adult. I thought well I have an NDP MLA and there must be a mistake. I contacted my MLA and wrote him a letter explaining that these were not even really new services but rather just the same services being funded by a different Ministry. I got back a letter from him telling me what a great job they were doing in government and really he could do nothing for me or other people like me whose children were turning 19 because there was a freeze on new services.

They screwed me over just as well as any Liberal would have for exactly the same reason but that's politics in this country.

Sun, 2013-03-17 02:42

#55

kropotkin1951

Now I am to believe a party led by someone who sat at the cabinet table for three years while the Charest government slashed many services is going to act different when he leads the federal government. Yeah I know he abandoned what looked like a sinking ship before the 2007 election but so what for three years he was a pillar of the government. He resigned over parks being privatized not over service being cut to families who needed them. I expect him to govern as a liberal and thus I will not vote for him because I have never voted for liberals and I never will. He will be better than Harper but that is not a very high standard.

Sun, 2013-03-17 07:32

#56

nicky

I think the NDP has a number of reasons to be optimistic about its chances in the Labrador byelection.

1. It was their third best seat in N&L in the last federal election with 20%

2. It seems like natural NDP territory with high percentages of both aboriginal and unionized voters.

3. The NDP has had some electoral success in Labrador in the past. It won the western provincial riding four or five times over the past 25 years. In 1997 it polled 38% in the federal election.

3. In the last provincial election the NDP got 24% in the four provincial ridings in Labrador vs 44% for the PCs and 31.5 for the Liberals. Although the NDP got swamped in the southern coastal and northern ridings it came a decent second in the central and western ridings.

4. Polls show the NDP is soaring in N &L . Just last week a Corporate Research poll of provincial voting intentions showed N 39 C 38 and L 22, a gain of 14% for the NDP from the election

5. The NDP tends to do better in federal elections in N & L than provincially. Over 30% in May 2011. Last summer there was a poll putting them in first place federally in the province with a number in the high 40s.

6. Jack Harris and Ryan Cleary seem to have very high profiles.

On the other hand, Labrador is a riding with significant Liberal traditional strength, one which they have only lost once, and they seem to be on the rise in the Atlantic. They lost by only a whisker in 2011 and should benefit from the Conservative electoral scandal. The byelection also looks like it will be held in the afterglow of the Trudeau coronation.

These factors present an extra opportunity for the NDP. The Liberals must be regarded as the favourites If the NDP pulls out a win it will help deflate the Trudeau bubble..

Sun, 2013-03-17 08:10

#57

KenS

It will be interesting, about the NDP.

Despite the Cons being organizationally new in Labrador, I think we can count on a very effective machine around Penashue. And the Liberals are solid, to say the least.

Organizationaly, the NDP has a lot of the right elements. But they have to be pulled together... and thats never the same when you are running against one, let alone two, well oiled machines.

That said- the NDP are masters at pulling those elements together to catch a wave that is rolling already.

Sun, 2013-03-17 11:06

#58

sherpa-finn

Hunky_Monkey noted above that "The NDP got 2.06% in 2011 in that riding. [Yvonne Jones' provincial riding of Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair]. Don't count the chickens before they hatch."

For those from away, that represented a total of 44 votes. Gotta love these Northern / rural ridings!

Sun, 2013-03-17 16:56

#59

Debater

Story not over for Peter Penashue, says former Chief Electoral Officer

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Even though he has resigned and repaid $30,000 in “ineligible” campaign contributions and vowed to run in a byelection to get his seat back, the story is not over for former intergovernmental affairs minister Peter Penashue, says former Chief Electoral Officer Jean-Pierre Kingsley.

“We haven’t seen the end of this,” Kingsley said during an interview on the Global News program The West Block with Tom Clark.

“This is not a matter that disappears because a minister admitted that something wrong occurred.”

http://www.globalnews.ca/story+not+over+for+peter+penashue+says+former+c...

Sun, 2013-03-17 18:03

#60

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I changed my mind. I am back. I am NOT going to be bullied off this web site. Why are personal attacks against meOK? Those of you going after me don't know the first thing about me. So don't assume you know anything, you don't and you are wrong. I didn't mention any names but got attacked any way. Fine, I won't name names, so back off. I'm not going to be run out of town on a rail, so get used to it. The Libs ALWAYS govern right, and they affect people's lives through their governance. Don't expect me to look the other way so that you feel good.

Sun, 2013-03-17 18:47

#61

JKR

If the "liberals ALWAYS govern right", how have we ended up with things like Medicare, CPP, OAS, GIS, Canada student loans and grants, The Charter of Rights & Freedoms, the federal provincial equalization program etc...?

Sun, 2021-11-21 15:25

#62

jfb

.

Sun, 2013-03-17 18:52

#63

nicky

HM meant the provincial riding won by Yvonne Jones in which the NDP really did only get 2 per cent.

Sun, 2013-03-17 19:08

#64

Hunky_Monkey

JKR wrote:
If the "liberals ALWAYS govern right", how have we ended up with things like Medicare, CPP, OAS, GIS, Canada student loans and grants, The Charter of Rights & Freedoms, the federal provincial equalization program etc...?

Much of that, such as medicare, was due to pressure from the NDP in minority governments.

Sun, 2013-03-17 19:20

#65

socialdemocrati...

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

JKR wrote:
If the "liberals ALWAYS govern right", how have we ended up with things like Medicare, CPP, OAS, GIS, Canada student loans and grants, The Charter of Rights & Freedoms, the federal provincial equalization program etc...?

Much of that, such as medicare, was due to pressure from the NDP in minority governments.

*end of thread*

Sun, 2013-03-17 19:20

#66

NorthReport

Absolutely HM.

Most progressive stuff if you scratch below the surface only happened because the Liberals were being pushed by the CCF or now the NDP.

Look how Frank Howard pushed Trudeau resulting in Trudeau's 1967 Omnibus Bill which brought issues like abortion, homosexuality and divorce law to the forefront for the first time, changing the political and social landscape in Canada forever. Etc.

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/timescolonist/obituary.aspx?n=frank-rob...

Sun, 2013-03-17 19:40

#67

Debater

Most of the accomplishments listed above actually ocurred during Liberal Majority Governments. Trudeau had Majorities during all but one of his election wins. And that includes when the Charter of Rights was passed in 1981, and when the death penalty was abolished in 1976, and many others too.

There's nothing wrong with claiming some NDP influence on the Liberals, but for the NDP to claim that they are responsible for every good thing the Liberals have done is going too far and makes the NDP sound as cocky as the Liberals have been in the past.

We also need to remember that 30% of Canadians are Conservative and don't like the Liberals or the NDP. Canada is not a far left country and unfortunately all governments have to move towads the center in order to accomodate them. Look at how Mulcair is trying to turn the NDP into the new Liberal Party or New Labour, like Tony Blair.

As it is, Pierre Trudeau was considered a socialist by many on the right, and is still referred to as such if you see the things they say about him at Free Dominion or in the National Post. I know Trudeau is not considered left wing enough for some NDP supporters here, but in a country like Canada where a third of the country is Conservative, you're not going to get much further left than him.

Sun, 2013-03-17 19:55

#68

KenS

JKR wrote:
If the "liberals ALWAYS govern right", how have we ended up with things like Medicare, CPP, OAS, GIS, Canada student loans and grants, The Charter of Rights & Freedoms, the federal provincial equalization program etc...?

For the contemporary period- running back at least 25 years, they do always govern from the right. Always when there is spending involved, and virtually always even when little spending is entailed.

The historical relic of the LPC brought in those things. The item we cohabit with has not and would not. Period. The Liberal Party we know would at best sign on to the Kyoto Accords, and then not do a damn thing about making it mean something. Which set the stage for the Harper crowd to complete the job, as with other things.

Sun, 2013-03-17 20:00

#69

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Cocky or historically accurate. I guess it depends on who you read, and who you believe. With certainty, our current National Helath Care System is entirely due to the NDP. Pearson had no choice. As to other things, it may be arguable about New Democratic influence. As to Trudeau, today, representing the left, that is classic Overton window stuff. So far, everthing that young Mr. Trudeau has said, aside from "Candian Mystism", has been decidely on the right. It may be that Candians are too Conservative to vote NDP; what happened in Ontario election night 2011 suggests that is a possibility. I guess we'll see, That is what elections are for.

Certainly, what Stock posted just above puts things in their proper perspective. It may come down to how well the NDP does showing that young Trudeau is not the heir of his father's legacy.

Sun, 2013-03-17 21:05

#70

kropotkin1951

It was a different era and thus hard to compare to our present day Parliament. Trudeau was pushed from both directions. His Charter finished Dief's job after the SCC ruled that any laws passed after the Bill of Rights that were in conflict took precedence. My personal view is that it was the WWII vets that pushed all the progress in our country. The Canadian elite were not about to fuck with our battle hardened vets who no matter what party they supported all believed they had laid their lives on the line for democracy and a better life than the Dirty Thirties. The real attacks on that consensus started in the late '70's when they were mostly in their fifties and older.

And of course the post war period was when unions got pension plans and health care benefits and living wages. They had to strike for them but they were tough men who could not be intimidated. Any fool knew that you could never recoup the lost wages after months long strikes but a pension was something they thought would be their legacy to their children.

Quote:

Diefenbaker appointed the first female minister in Canadian history to his Cabinet, as well as the first aboriginal member of the Senate. During his six years as Prime Minister, his government obtained passage of the Canadian Bill of Rights and granted the vote to the First Nations and Inuit peoples. In foreign policy, his stance against apartheid helped secure the departure of South Africa from the Commonwealth of Nations, but his indecision on whether to accept Bomarc nuclear missiles from the United States led to his government's downfall. Diefenbaker is also remembered for his role in the 1959 cancellation of the Avro Arrow project.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Diefenbaker

Sun, 2013-03-17 23:50

#71

KenS

.... speaking of labrador ,,,

Mon, 2013-03-18 01:39

#72

kropotkin1951

Yes I'll let you NDP types go back to maligning people's character for the sin of being a Liberal. I am sure that will work real well for you guys when it comes to convincing Liberal voters to switch to your honorable party.

Todd and any other indigenous leader is obviously only to judged by whether they drink the Orange Koolaid. What a joke.

Mon, 2013-03-18 02:02

#73

JKR

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Cocky or historically accurate. I guess it depends on who you read, and who you believe. With certainty, our current National Helath Care System is entirely due to the NDP. Pearson had no choice. As to other things, it may be arguable about New Democratic influence.

Why didn't Pearson have a choice? Pearson and the Liberals supported socialized medicine because it was a popular idea that had spread to Canada from western Europe. It's probably a good thing that Liberals let popular public opinion lead them to their middle of the road positions that take from both the right and left sides of the political spectrum because this gives the NDP a political party they can periodically work with in producing progressive public policy. Unfortunately, the Conservatives are unwilling to take on such a role with the NDP.

Uncomfortable as it is for left-wingers to admit, the Liberals have often taken right-wing positions because right-wing positions have been popular with Canadians. Many Canadians dislike taxes, deficits, and debt, so the Liberals often support right-wing policies but when left-wing positions are popular with the public the NDP can at times work with the Liberals in producing good progressive policies.

If the likeliest path to getting good progressive public policy in Canada is through NDP-Liberal cooperation within minority governments, I have no problem hoping Liberals beat Conservatives in ridings where only those two parties are in contention because that increases the possibility that a government will be formed that produces good policies.

If the NDP had an even chance at winning majorities, it wouldn't matter how the Liberals faired but that doesn't seem to be how the planets are aligned in Canadian federal politics. Because of our FPTP system, the Conservatives chances at forming phony FPTP governments goes up when the Liberal vote goes down in swing Conservative-Liberal ridings. Phony FPTP governments are one reason why many people support fair voting / proportional representation.

If we had fair voting / proportional representation, left-wing parties would cooperate with centre-left parties and centrist parties in producing good legislation. That's how it's worked in the world's leading social democratic countries like Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, etc.... Hopefully, that's how it will work in Canada too once we get fair voting / proportional representation.

Mon, 2013-03-18 03:41

#74

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

JKR:

Your account is not how my dad (blessed be his memory) recalled it, or for that matter what long departed NDP/CCF MPs recalled it either. It was political expendiency. The Libs wrapped themselves up in it facing the peril of a popular CCF/NDP idea that threatened to knock them off the pedestal of governance.

Mon, 2013-03-18 04:05

#75

JKR

AC,

I thought my account supported the idea that the Liberals helped establish Medicare in order to maintain their popularity and hold onto power.

Mon, 2013-03-18 06:17

#76

KenS

JKR wrote:

Unfortunately, the Conservatives are unwilling to take on such a role with the NDP. Uncomfortable as it is for left-wingers to admit, the Liberals have often taken right-wing positions because right-wing positions have been popular with Canadians. Many Canadians dislike taxes, deficits, and debt, so the Liberals often support right-wing policies but when left-wing positions are popular with the public the NDP can at times work with the Liberals in producing good progressive policies.

You used the qualifier "often" in that highlighted part. That makes it miss the point. The Liberals take right wing positions when that is the milieux we operate in. Period.

So how is your prescription relevant to the contemporary period? We will get right wing positions from the Liberals now. Period. In the Nineties they waved around Red Book promises thhet never did or were going to do. Does that count?

Maybe the NDP can work with the Liberals again. I would say probably even. But now it will have to be from the NDP in a dominant position, or we will keep getting nothing. It is the dominant position factor that comes first. That the NDP once worked with a relic LPC is not something available to be repeated.

Mon, 2013-03-18 08:27

#77

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

JKR wrote:
AC, I thought my account supported the idea that the Liberals helped establish Medicare in order to maintain their popularity and hold onto power.

JKR, I didn't understand that is what you meant. As I said, I recall vividly my dad and two old time NDP MPs, inlcuding one who was a CCFer in the House, tell me that the LPC stole the idea to win re-election at the time. I guess that is what you said but it went over my head like a 747.

Mon, 2013-03-18 16:24

#78

Debater

Peter Penashue was warned to get election filing done

Mar 18, 2013

A letter from Chief Electoral Officer Marc Mayrand last month warned Peter Penashue and his official agent to get corrected campaign expenses filed on time or Penashue wouldn't be able to sit or vote in the House of Commons, newly released records show.

The warning from Mayrand was in response to a Dec. 19, 2012, filing by Penashue's new official agent, Sandra Troster, who was supposed to clean up the books the Conservatives say were mismanaged by the first official agent, Reg Bowers.

Mayrand says in the letter to Troster, copied to Penashue, that the information Troster filed last December didn't back up the changes needed to update Penashue's election campaign records.

One problem was that corporate cheques were still filed under individual names and addresses. The other problem, he said, had to do with the $18,710.54 in flights donated by Provincial Airlines Limited and its subsidiary, Innu Mikun.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/03/18/pol-penashue-warned-to-...

Mon, 2013-03-18 19:04

#79

Stockholm

I have a hunch that Penashue will be crushed in this byelection and that it will really be between the Liberals and the NDP.

Mon, 2013-03-18 19:15

#80

Boom Boom

Penashue started his campaign today with an ad in The Labradorian. I'll post it asap. Obviously the Conservatives know the campaign investigation report on Penashue will be very bad news and they want to get the byelection over before it comes out.

Mon, 2013-03-18 19:36

#81

Boom Boom

The ad is in this article.

excerpt:

Undaunted, it seems, by the cloud of controversy that swirled around his surprise resignation from the House of Commons last week, former -- and, at least if it all works the way he's hoping, future -- Labrador MP Peter Penashue has already hit the pre-campaign hustings with a full-page ad in the latest edition of The Labradorian.

The poster-sized ad -- which, incidentally, includes the Conservative logo, but otherwise offers no information on who paid for the spot -- credits Penashue with having "secured federal support" for the Muskrat Falls project, as well as "working with government and private industry to increase internet speed" in the province.

It also directs interested readers to the newly created website: deliveringforlabrador.ca, which invites users to "commit to vote" for Penashue in the "upcoming" (but, at press time, still un-called) byelection, as well as file requests for lawn signs and offer themselves up as volunteers.

and this:

Interestingly, the deliveringforlabrador.ca domain was registered on March 11, 2013.

Not only was that four days before Penashue's resignation was ostensibly submitted, but it was also the very same day that he was in North West River to present $1.35 million in new federal funding for "broadband improvements," which would turn out to be his final appearance before stepping down.

Yeah, looks like the Cons are out to lie, cheat, and steal (again).

UPDATE: Canadian Press is now reporting that the by-election could be called within the next two weeks, which means that Penashue's no-limits ad spending spree could turn out to be of very short duration.

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:26

#82

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

I have a hunch that Penashue will be crushed in this byelection and that it will really be between the Liberals and the NDP.

I think the main race is likely to be between the Liberals & the Conservatives, based on historical trends, as well as the likely name recognition of who the Conservative and Liberal are going to be.

Is the NDP going to have a candidate as high profile as Yvonne Jones/Todd Russell or Peter Penashue?

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:28

#83

Debater

Penashue’s campaign knew it ran afoul of Elections Canada over donations in mid-February: records

18. MAR, 2013

APTN National News

Former federal cabinet minister Peter Penashue’s campaign knew by at least mid-February it had run afoul of electoral donation laws, Elections Canada records show.

Elections Canada rejected Penashue’s amended campaign return that month because it failed to identify returned corporate donations and made no reference to an $18,710 non-monetary contribution from an airline, according to a Feb. 12 letter from Chief Electoral Officer Marc Mayrand. The letter was carbon copied to Penashue, who was intergovernmental affairs minister at the time.

http://aptn.ca/pages/news/2013/03/18/penashues-campaign-knew-it-ran-afou...

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:37

#84

Boom Boom

I want Penashue beat, and whether it's by the Libs or NDP makes no difference to me. I strongly feel that it will be the Liberals that have the best chance at doing so.

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:40

#85

Debater

Boom Boom wrote:

I want Penashue beat, and whether it's by the Libs or NDP makes no difference to me. I strongly feel that it will be the Liberals that have the best chance at doing so.

I think so too, but I'm surprised to hear you say that. It's not a popular opinion around here.

And yes, the link you posted above confirms what I just heard Mia Rabson & Joel-Denis Bellavance discuss with Peter Van Dusen on CPAC - they have heard Harper wants to call a by-election within the next few weeks.

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:44

#86

David Young

Harper probably wants the by-election to happen before the B.C. provincial election takes place, where an overwhelming NDP victory would be seen to be an electoral slap to Harper's face, given that so many federal Conservatives have been helping the B.C. Liberals.

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:48

#87

Boom Boom

I'm not a big NDP booster as you know. Yes, I took out a NDP membership, but there's been tmes when I regretted doing so, Right now the NDP just seems like the best of a rotten bunch of apples. My policy has been to vote for the best local candidate, regardless of party affiliation. If Todd Russell runs for that Labrador seat, he's in my opinion the best candidate. Penashue is the worse. I know very little about Yvonne Jones.

Mon, 2013-03-18 21:49

#88

Stockholm

The NDP has surged in Newfoundland and I think they will run a serious campaign...somethning they did not do last time. Yvonne Jones may have a following in her teeny-weeny provincial riding that has about 20% of the voters in Labrador, but she is a total unknown everywhere else and her party is moribund.

Mon, 2013-03-18 22:07

#89

Boom Boom

Who is the NDP candidate in that Labrador riding, anyway? I know little about Yvonne Jones, but haven't even heard of the NDP candidate yet.

Sun, 2021-11-21 15:25

#90

jfb

.

Tue, 2013-03-19 08:15

#91

adma

Honestly, I can see Yvonne Jones adding up to the kind of sentimental favourite that might override any supposed moribund-party issues...

Tue, 2013-03-19 13:50

#92

Policywonk

adma wrote:

Honestly, I can see Yvonne Jones adding up to the kind of sentimental favourite that might override any supposed moribund-party issues...

It looks like the by-election will be called for mid-May, according to a few sources.

http://www.globalnews.ca/labrador+byelection+date+will+be+announced+with...

Unless the NDP find a good candidate soon, it probably will be between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Historical trends aside, the NDP did finish second in 2008 and 1997 (the latter was was due to the split between the PCs and Reform). I don't know how popular Yvonne Jones is in Labrador.

Tue, 2013-03-19 13:50

#93

Policywonk

adma wrote:

Honestly, I can see Yvonne Jones adding up to the kind of sentimental favourite that might override any supposed moribund-party issues...

It looks like the by-election will be called for mid-May, according to a few sources.

http://www.globalnews.ca/labrador+byelection+date+will+be+announced+with...

Unless the NDP find a good candidate soon, it probably will be between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Historical trends aside, the NDP did finish second in 2008 and 1997 (the latter was was due to the split between the PCs and Reform). I don't know how popular Yvonne Jones is in Labrador.

Tue, 2013-03-19 15:34

#94

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

The NDP has surged in Newfoundland and I think they will run a serious campaign...somethning they did not do last time. Yvonne Jones may have a following in her teeny-weeny provincial riding that has about 20% of the voters in Labrador, but she is a total unknown everywhere else and her party is moribund.

This is a federal election - not a provincial election. I'm not sure if the provincial polls you refer to will have much effect.

And what do you mean by a moribund party? Do you mean the provincial Liberals? Because the Federal Liberals are now ahead of the NDP in the polls.

But as Boom Boom asked, who is the NDP planning to run in Labrador? Do they have a big name like the Liberals or Conservatives? Remember also that Yvonne Jones may not be the nominee if Todd Russell runs. She is strong, but he may be stronger.

Tue, 2013-03-19 15:42

#95

Debater

janfromthebruce wrote:

patience BB - the NDP didn't get insider information which Penashue did and register a webpage prior to the stepdown and stepup!

True, but neither did the Liberals and yet they have 2 high-profile Labrador candidates who could run - Yvonne Jones is already in, and Todd Russell is thinking it over with his community.

The Conservatives are not going to let this go without a fight - does the NDP have a big name like the Liberals that it can run? I know you dislike the Liberals, but if you look at it objectively, isn't the party which has won Labrador in almost every election in its history the one that is best-positioned to beat the Cons?

Tue, 2013-03-19 15:54

#96

KenS

Debater wrote:

This is a federal election - not a provincial election. I'm not sure if the provincial polls you refer to will have much effect.

Polls dont have effects.

They are indicators. They all need interpretation. So you pull all the different polls together to look at trends- not just the single ones in themselves that seem to most directly apply.

Tue, 2013-03-19 16:00

#97

Boom Boom

There's also the strong possibility that all the bad publicity around Penashue (in the news) may drive voters elsewhere - most likely to the Liberals, unless the NDP have a massive war chest to campaign with. Who knows? Penashue won by just 78 votes last time. Even his mother disagreed with him on Muskrat Falls.

Tue, 2013-03-19 16:16

#98

Debater

KenS wrote:

Debater wrote:

This is a federal election - not a provincial election. I'm not sure if the provincial polls you refer to will have much effect.

Polls dont have effects.

They are indicators. They all need interpretation. So you pull all the different polls together to look at trends- not just the single ones in themselves that seem to most directly apply.

True. And I'm not saying that there isn't the possibility that some of the NDP's good polling provincially can't translate federally, but it will still be hard for the NDP to get out of 3rd place in Labrador on the federal level.

I also don't necessarily expect the reverse situation to happen in Nova Scotia. Just because the NDP is collapsing provincially and the Liberals are ahead there doesn't necessarily mean the NDP will lose seats to the Liberals federally in the next election. It's possible the Liberals can take back seats like Dartmouth-Cole Harbour in 2015 if the NDP is still unpopular, but not necessarily. It depends on the local conditions and who the candidates are federally.

Tue, 2013-03-19 16:21

#99

Debater

Boom Boom wrote:

There's also the strong possibility that all the bad publicity around Penashue (in the news) may drive voters elsewhere - most likely to the Liberals, unless the NDP have a massive war chest to campaign with. Who knows? Penashue won by just 78 votes last time. Even his mother disagreed with him on Muskrat Falls.

The media seems to be critical of Penashue and Harper over the Labrador by-election scandal right now. With both Harper & Polievere going over the top today in the HOC and describing Penashue as the best MP in the history of the universe, a lot of the commentary is saying that the Cons are in danger of overplaying their hand.

But after 2011, nothing can be taken for granted anymore. The Liberals are not guaranteed to win in Labrador or anywhere else. Overconfidence got the LPC into the mess of 2011, and the Liberals have to work hard to earn the votes in Labrador if they are going to win there. The Conservatives are obviously throwing a lot of money & effort at this by-election since it will be seen as a referendum on the Harper Government's corruption. Penashue's bills are being paid by the CPC and they already got a website up for him several days before he resigned.

Tue, 2013-03-19 16:46

#100

kropotkin1951

So how do the parties now shake out on Muskrat Falls, both the NFLD NDP and Liberals oppose it. The federal Conservatives are in favour. Mulcair last year was in favour but I can't seem to find any new statements. The federal Liberals also seem to be in favour but again they aren't saying much these days.

Do the three federal parties share the same view on the project and if so how will that play out with the people who oppose the project?

If Todd runs it will interesting since his organization has been actively opposed to it. Presumably the Liberal MLA would also be against it and that would also put her at odds with the federal Liberals.

This could be a very interesting race with all three parties on the wrong side of a local environmental issue.

http://www.nunatukavut.ca/home/album-7

Tue, 2013-03-19 17:10

#101

Brachina

It more complicated then that, Mulcair said Newfoundland should recieve federal help, with that project or other green energy plans, but he clearly left the decision about Muskrat falls up to Newfoundlanders, he never pushed for it.

Labrador By-Election

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