Dobbin is so mixed up, it isnt funny.He makes the leap of faith that the reason that the Conservatives win, and with majorities, despite support levels that don't reach that high, is because they are true to what their base wants. [He actually never makes this article of faith clear. He says that the NDP has similar or better levels of support, but doesn't do better because it is not true to the anti-corporate battle.]
Nobody, the Conservatives included, gets to power by playing to its base. They get to power and stay there because they are good at appealing to swing voters]. The trick is to bridge appealing to swing voters and your base. The NDP hasn't mastered that, and I would agree that part of the problem is the concern with being 'safe'.
So Ken, what do you make of declining voter turnout levels? It's well known that people of lower socio-economic status tend to vote in lower numbers, which presents a challenge for the NDP since this is also the natural constituency of the NDP. Without trying to appeal to the NDP, the NDP is reduced to fighting for a smaller segment of the population, many of whom will never vote NDP because they are afraid that the "socialists" will threaten their comfort. Just look at the vitriol that is often thrown at the Manitoba NDP on the public news websites.