Giambrone by-election surge

10 posts / 0 new

Wed, 2013-07-31 12:38

Stockholm

Contrary to what many expected, Adam Giambrone is actually doing remarkably well in Scarborough-Guildwood. Forum just put out their final poll and Mitzie Hunter leads with 38%, followed by PC Ken Kirupa at 31% with Giambrone a strong 3rd at 27% (he was at 18% at the start of the campaign) and the lonely pro-LRT Green collapsed from 9% to 3%. Interestingly Giambrone's rise doesn't seem to harming the Liberals, his gains seem to be matched by a collapse of the Greens and some losses by the PCs.

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/29824...

Wed, 2013-07-31 13:37

Aristotleded24

Of course, we know that polls always accurately predict election results. Just ask Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and BC Premier Adrian Dix.

Wed, 2013-07-31 13:53

Stockholm

That's true - he might prove the polls wrong and actually win and become the next MPP for Scarborough-Guildwood - I can just imagine all the babblers going into "I'm melting! I'm melting!" mode if that happens!

Wed, 2013-07-31 14:39

toaster

Anyone know if Andrea will be in Scarborough today or tomorrow? Or is she staying in London.

Wed, 2013-07-31 16:45

ctrl190

If Giambrone can win 25%+ in a historically unfavourable riding that could fare well for his political prospects.

Wed, 2013-07-31 18:19

edmundoconnor

I'd be treating these numbers with extreme caution, just like another poll which had the NDP almost in the teens. Six percent is a mighty big margin of error. I think the final vote share will be a little more like 24%-25% for Giambrone. Not spectacular, but a solid build upon 19%. It would join Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough—Rouge River as a riding where the NDP vote share is going in the right direction.

Wed, 2013-07-31 18:25

edmundoconnor

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Of course, we know that polls always accurately predict election results. Just ask Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and BC Premier Adrian Dix.

Indeed. If you look under the hood at the small print, a sample size of 400 and a margin of +/-6% tells you that this isn't a poll – it's a guess with great paperwork.

Wed, 2013-07-31 21:54

adma

ctrl190 wrote:

If Giambrone can win 25%+ in a historically unfavourable riding that could fare well for his political prospects.

Let's not be too hasty in calling it "historically unfavourable"--after all, the federal Dippers hit that post w/o much of a campaign in the Orange Crush; and 19% is a pretty good low threshold in the last provincial election considering the candidate wasn't much more than a poteau; and Neethan Shan's 2007 figure was amazing for 2007. And of course, up through the Rae years, significant parts of the present-day Guildwood (including the eastern reaches of David Warner territory) *weren't* unfavourable; or else, some of the best NDP parts of non-NDP seats.

In the end, what's happening now says more about Giambrone's aggressive ground team than about Giambrone himself.

Wed, 2013-07-31 22:02

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:
It would join Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough—Rouge River as a riding where the NDP vote share is going in the right direction.

"The right direction" should already have been discernable through Neethan Shan's 2007 run.

Also don't forget Scarborough Centre: the "true" successor to David Warner's past bulwarks, where Kathleen Mathurin went from 13.3% in '07 to 21.8% (and only 2 points short of PC) in '11; that'd be "the right direction" too, no? Of course, camoflauged by its being Landslide Brad Duguid's stronghold; but, imagine if *he* retired...

Thu, 2013-08-01 07:20

#10

edmundoconnor

adma wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:
It would join Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough—Rouge River as a riding where the NDP vote share is going in the right direction.

"The right direction" should already have been discernable through Neethan Shan's 2007 run.

Also don't forget Scarborough Centre: the "true" successor to David Warner's past bulwarks, where Kathleen Mathurin went from 13.3% in '07 to 21.8% (and only 2 points short of PC) in '11; that'd be "the right direction" too, no? Of course, camoflauged by its being Landslide Brad Duguid's stronghold; but, imagine if *he* retired...

It would be the right direction, too. I was only naming ridings that I could remember off the top of my head. I can imagine Duguid retiring, but I don't see him going anywhere for a decade at least, barring electoral upset. However, his neighbour Bas Balkissoon showed himself to vulnerable to a spirited challenge in 2011, after crushing all opposition in 2007 with 65% of the vote, so anything's possible. With a little more time, effort, and money, the NDP can ease at least some of Scarborough out of the sleeper hold the Ontario Liberals have put it in.