So Liberals tumbled to third place in 2 of the constituencies they previously held. Does not speak to a solid foundation. The PCs crack a seat in Toronto. The third-place NDP finish in Ottawa suggests there is much more groundwork that the federal and provincial NDP need to do in that area.
Quick question: Isn't London-West a richer part of London? If so, can anybody explain why the NDP took that spot?
Quick question: Isn't London-West a richer part of London? If so, can anybody explain why the NDP took that spot?
I think Coran running to his former enemies created a bad taste in many mouths, and not just for OSSTF members.
Quick question: Isn't London-West a richer part of London? If so, can anybody explain why the NDP took that spot?
Part of it is wealthier (along the Thames River near Storybook Gardens), but it also is comprised of neighbourhoods like Old South (with older homes and close to downtown London) that is soldily NDP.
So London West was a toss-up, was it? The walking off of the polls in Alberta and BC continues.
So what does this mean for Tim Hudak?
With 29 polls to go, Giambrone is holding steady at just above 29%, and making it a hairy night for the PCs, who in their own minds should have pulled away long ago.
Duplicate post.
Duplicate post. Darn tablet.
So what does this mean for Tim Hudak?
Not a total write-off. If the PCs hadn't taken Etobicoke--Lakeshore, he might have faced some very tough questions over his leadership. It could have gone a lot better for him, though. Capturing McGuinty's former seat would have been a nice coup, and I think the PCs genuinely thought they were in with a shot in London West.
Quick question: Isn't London-West a richer part of London? If so, can anybody explain why the NDP took that spot?
Part of it is wealthier (along the Thames River near Storybook Gardens), but it also is comprised of neighbourhoods like Old South (with older homes and close to downtown London) that is soldily NDP.
Or more, solidly NDP-compatible--but of the AnnexGlebe-y sort that's been aggressively courted by the Liberals in recent times. Yet as with Kitchener-Waterloo, once a little needle pricks that particular Liberal balloon...
And there's a fair share of 60s/70s-suburban "middle zones", like London's answer to that hitherto seemingly insurmountable "Don Valley East" element that wound up going 25% fed NDP in 2011.
Again, just so that there are results in the thread for folks who are mobile or on slow internet connections:
Etobicoke-Lakeshore 192 of 245 polls reporting
PC 46.3%, Liberal 41.9%, NDP 8.0%, Green 2.3%
London West 236 of 260
NDP 44.3%, PC 30.9%, Liberal 15.1%, Green 4.9%
Ottawa South 171 of 234
Liberal 43.1%, PC 37.4%, NDP 14.5%, Green 3.4%
Scarborough-Guildwood 151 of 166
Liberal 35.9%, PC 30.1%, NDP 28.9%, Green 2.1%
Windsor-Tecumseh 244 of 255
NDP 61.5%, PC 20.1%, Liberal 11.6%, Green 3.7%, Libertarian 1.6%, FCP 1.0%
So what does this mean for Tim Hudak?
Enough for him to keep his gig, but questions about his appeal will linger
Etobicoke-Lakeshore 243 of 246 polls reporting
PC 46.4%, Liberal 41.8%, NDP 8.1%, Green 2.3%
London West -FINAL
NDP 41.9%, PC 32.7%, Liberal 15.8%, Freedom 5.0% (didn't notice this last time), Green 4.3%
Ottawa South 228 of 234
Liberal 42.2%, PC 38.8%, NDP 14.2%, Green 3.2%
Scarborough-Guildwood -FINAL
Liberal 35.8%, PC 30.8%, NDP 28.4%, Green 2.2%
Windsor-Tecumseh 253 of 255
NDP 61.5%, PC 19.7%, Liberal 12.0%, Green 3.6%, Libertarian 1.6%, FCP 1.0%
So what does this mean for Tim Hudak?
Enough for him to keep his gig, but questions about his appeal will linger
Even some of the Conservative commentators I'm hearing on radio tonight are admitting that the only reason Hudak won the single riding that he did was more because of Rob Ford than him.
Basically a win for Ford Nation rather than a win for Hudak.
My question is, what becomes of Adam Giambrone?
What I do know is that many labour activists who would have been happy to work in a campaign for Amarjeet Chhabra sat this one out. Or, in Michelle's case, chose to work in the "let's build for the future" campaign in Etobicoke Lakeshore.
Giambrone pissed a lot of good people off.
Giambrone pissed of lots ppl? But why he got 10+ gain percent from last election. he almost win.
Giambrone did allright under the circumstances, but he finished 3rd. So a lot of people will ask whether the controversy over the nomination was worth it.
Perhaps he is planning to build for the future. There are some rumours he wants to run in Trinity-Spadina next year if Olivia Chow leaves Parliament to run for Mayor against Rob Ford.
But if he has burned too many bridges, he may not win another NDP nomination. Who knows.
Giambrone had the advantage that the NDP threw all its resources in Toronto into that riding, while the Liberals and Tories had to divide between Scarborough and Etobicoke. The NDP collapsed to less than 10% in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Also Amarjeet Chhabra may very well have done just as well and it wouldn't have been so divisive. And anyway if Giambrone is so formidable a candidate and had so spectacular a showing he should run there in the general. The chances of that are practically nil.
People should quit wondering why the NDP sometimes wins in rich areas. It is just one of the three main establishment parties like the Tories and the Liberals. There are many 'silk stocking' limousine types who like NDP-style politics, both here in North America and in Europe: Inherited wealth, Upper middle-class professionals (lawyers, doctors, teachers, etc.), Artistic and cultural sectors, academics.
In many ways the Tory Party is a lower middle class phenomenon, especially if you look at its values...
I don't differentiate much between the three parties. In term of policy, if left-right is a 0-180 degree spectrum, the three of them sit within 4.6 degrees of each other with about 135 degrees at their middle.
Most of us who made predictions got 4 of 5 right:
London West - NDP
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Conservative
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
Ottawa South???
Will just one victory be enough to save Hudak?
Giambrone did allright under the circumstances, but he finished 3rd. So a lot of people will ask whether the controversy over the nomination was worth it.
Perhaps he is planning to build for the future. There are some rumours he wants to run in Trinity-Spadina next year if Olivia Chow leaves Parliament to run for Mayor against Rob Ford.
But if he has burned too many bridges, he may not win another NDP nomination. Who knows.
The possibilities of Trinity--Spadina aren't just federal, though. Marchese has long been fighting a noble fight for better governance of condominium corporations, but his margin of victory in 2011 was decidedly narrow. A riding association nervously watching those numbers, and considering what they might mean for the future, might well take a serious look at a candidate who added handsomely to the party's share of the vote elsewhere, controversy and all. That is, if Marchese was interested or at least open to the possibility of stepping down at the next general election.
You cannot judge a potential candidate by one failed run.
Indeed. Canadian political history is replete with examples of candidates who did not win on their first try, but tried, tried again, and eventually won. John G. Diefenbaker and Dan Harris are just two ideologically polar-opposite examples that come to mind. I don't think we've heard the last of Chhabra by a long shot.
Some scattered thoughts on the by-elections:
I was curious about what the results would be if we applied the overall by-election swings acroos the province. Assuming the Liberals fell by 18% in each riding, that the Cons rose by 6% and the NDP by 10% (and that each party retained its by-election gains):
PC 65
NDP 33
Lib 9
I guess even Tim Hudak couldn't screw things up in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Whatever the % increase the Tories enjoyed, this is a loss for the Cons. Hope Tim stays on.
(Oh, I guess we can safely remove the thread about Giambrone's "surge", eh?)
I agree with nicky that the numbers don't look that bad for the Cons. I ran the numbers from Ontatio Elections and the following is the popular vote for the by-elections. The popular vote may add some insight to the elections. Actually is pretty close to the last July 22 Forum poll which was
Lib 31%
Con 36%
NDP 27%
Grn 5%
Total votes cast for the Greens,Libs,Cons,NDP - 153078 - 100%
Green - 5726 - 3.7%
Cons - 54638 - 35.6%
Libs - 47213 - 30.8%
NDP - 45501 - 29.7%
But Hudak and Cons are doing a service to the NDP. By destroying the Libs they are moving some votes to the NDP from the Libs. Plus Horwath keeps her hands clean and her approval rates up by not insulting liberal voters like the Cons are doing.
anyone know what the voter turn-out was? I can't find any articles that mention it.
The ONDP not only threw all of their resources into Scarborough-Guildwood, but also those who did volunteer for Giambrone worked their asses off and were relentless, dedicated canvassers.
What I do know is that many labour activists who would have been happy to work in a campaign for Amarjeet Chhabra sat this one out.
Giambrone pissed a lot of good people off.
I would've volunteered myself but the dubious nomination (and the history of the brass' anti-democratic streak) was really off-putting.
There's a lot of talk about Giambrone. I used to volunteer for him quite some time ago when he was running for city councillor in Toronto's Davenport riding against incumbent Mario Silva. He lost the first time. During much of this campaign, he and those around him frequently criticized Silva for being in the closet and not transparent like Giambrone was (the implication I took from this was that Giambrone was gay). Then, during the term, he published a "community newsletter" called the "Davenport Association News" (or something like that), which was primarily a critique of Silva. That publication named Giambrone as president. At one meeting of this Association, a bunch of Silva supporters crashed it, yelling "you can't be president without an election! There must be an election!" At which point the Silva supporters had an "election", and then proceeded to publish their own "Davenport Association News" newsletter with the exact same formatting as Giambrone's publication (though the content was very pro-Silva). The Giambrone team was astounded. I less so. I figured, if you're going to throw darts, expect a response (granted, it was a bit extreme of Silva and his supporters to overtake Giambrone's group in this fashion, but it's also a bit disingenuous of Giambrone to portray a self-promoting propaganda rag as a grassroots community group newsletter).
Silva went on to become an MP (there was some controversy about this, given that a very progressive and long-standing Liberal with roots to PET, Charles Caccia, got pushed out to pasture by Paul Martin and crew when they brought Silva in to run), and eventually Silva did come out of the closet as being gay. This set the showdown between Ana Bailão (a long time volunteer for Silva) and Giambrone. Giambrone won. I was at Giambrone's victory party, and Ana Bailão actually came to congratulate Adam. So, Ana Bailão, myself, and others were standing there, then Adam shows up. He nods at everyone, then pulls out his cell phone, is talking, then excitedly says, "it's Miller, and things are rocking!" And then he leaves, to go to the party that David Miller was having. So, me, and some others, are left standing there awkwardly making conversation with Ana Bailão.
Anyway, he did some very good things for the TTC while he had power at City Hall. Transferable passes, expanded bus routes, more information options about scheduling, and various other modifications (though buying new streetcars and subways is perhaps more Miller than Giambrone -- still, I imagine they worked together on this, and it was great work).
The NDP won two seats that had previously been Liberal seats, and one of those seats was an unexpected win. It's good news.
The main stream media seems to be going out of their way to somehow portray this as not significant, and instead they are putting an undue emphasis of their coverage on Holyday's win, Giambrone's loss, and Mitzie Hunter's win.
Screw the MSM. The NDP were the biggest winners in these bi-elections.
Thrilled to see Ken Coran get annihilated. Served him right. I notice KW spinning the story that the public is fed up re gas plants etc. but nary a word about Bill 115. Maybe she still doesn't get it.
Without the unceasingly negative press that Giambrone sustained, it seems likely that he may have won. This may be attributable to the general swing to the NDP as well as his personal campaigning skills. Perhaps he is to blame for the bad press but his opponent for the nomination also bears some responsibility for washing the dirty laundry in public.
Perhaps Amarjeet Chhabra should have washed the dirty laundry that Giambrone created at the 4 AM coin laundry so that nobody would see it.
Perhaps she could sing "Giambrone's back and there's going to be laundry" while she does it?
Now [i]that[/i] is funny, albeit a tad sardonic.
Even some of the Conservative commentators I'm hearing on radio tonight are admitting that the only reason Hudak won the single riding that he did was more because of Rob Ford than him.Basically a win for Ford Nation rather than a win for Hudak.
Well, actually, except for the token geographical-ideological solidarity I'd deemphasize Ford Nation, here. That is, rather than Hudak or Ford Nation, it was a win for *Holyday*, who's a political legend around these parts--that is, if Etobicoke hadn't been mega-amalgamated, he'd likely *still* be Mayor, nearly two decades later.
With Holyday, the PCs hit the candidate jackpot--even with all the support of Ford Nation, I doubt that any other PC candidate could have succeeded. And that it was still a less-than-5-point margin is telling you something (though I'm sure there'll be the inevitable Grit hacks who'll point fingers at the NDP for "splitting the vote" a la Smitherman-Pantalone).
Though, another thing: Holyday may have won as a demonstration of how Hudak can win in the 416, but who says he'll run again in the general election (or at least, a 2015 general election), given that he's in his 70s--and a Holyday-less Etobicoke-Lakeshore could well "return to form". Or even be, yes, NDP-targetable, given its past...
I was curious about what the results would be if we applied the overall by-election swings acroos the province. Assuming the Liberals fell by 18% in each riding, that the Cons rose by 6% and the NDP by 10% (and that each party retained its by-election gains):
PC 65
NDP 33
Lib 9
Dubious assumptions, as you have to look at where the constituencies are, and the fact that these are by-elections. Still, the Conservatives did not do as badly as the one seat they won suggests.
Well-written piece today by Gerald Caplan:
Hudak blows another election
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/hudak-blows-another-electio...
FWIW, the federal Liberals now hold only 11 seats in all of Ontario. Two of those 11 are Ottawa South and Scarborough Guildwood.
Interesting story, Mark. I was excited when I heard of the byelection here in Scarborough. Hey, I can canvass for the party and not have to commute to do it! Not to mention in Scarborough anything can happen, Dan Harris being a good example.
Then they announced Adam, and there went that idea.
Ugh.
Your anecdotes just confirm what I have always felt, that Adam's an individual of meh intellect and great confidence. A guy who thinks he's a little smarter than everybody else, and isn't.
Smarter than his party, whose nomination process he couldnt be bothered with. Smarter than the woman he lived with and presumably loved, whom he betrayed. Smarter than the women he cheated on her with, for whom he had so little respect, he couldnt be bothered to shell out 100 bucks to go rent a room. Smarter than his constituents, colleages and staff, whom he honoured by boinking people on his office couch.
What a lemon.
This is a multicultural community. The party's best idea was to run a white idiot?
We should have WON here.
Perhaps there are too many "white idiots" in the NDP of whatever sexual and political proclivity. Like it or not, the immigrant community is more entrepreneurial than many unionized NDP traditionalists. They have to make their own money in the face of institutionalized racism and union nepotism. Because of this, it can be easier for the Tories and the Liberals to pick them up.
That being said, Giambrone made a respectable showing in the by-election. Whether this was because of Giambrone or because the NDP is now considered to be a contender on the same plane as the Liberals and Tories is another matter. Giambrone's behavior made him troll-worthy, however he has never been found with his hands in the cookie jar.
As I have said for many years, the reasons people vote are in this order: incumbency, the Leader, party affiliation, and way down there, the local candidate. On balance, the people of this riding did not feel the Ontario Liberal Party needed to be punished.
Those who are "left of centre" (whatever that means these days) should take no small comfort in the fact that "that which is to the left of the PC Party" won 4 out of 5.
That being said, Giambrone made a respectable showing in the by-election. Whether this was because of Giambrone or because the NDP is now considered to be a contender on the same plane as the Liberals and Tories is another matter.
IMO a little bit of both, i.e. less because of Giambrone-the-candidate per se, than because of Giambrone the motivator-by-example. IOW he demonstrated how the NDP could be a legitimate contender in Guildwood, and rightly so--remember that a lot of the past naysaying had not to do w/the Giambrone parachute, but the perception that S-G was "not winnable". Even though demographics and patterns over the years demonstrate that, in fact, the NDP's been underplaying its cards here lately.
Maybe it's a overly-prudent hangover from the Rae implosion, but it sometimes seems as if the NDP's been overly ginger about absorbing the lessons from the Orange Crush--though perhaps it would have been a premature reflex for Horwath's team in 2011, given that the foundation for their "election readiness" was already in the works before said Orange Crush took root. Thus their provincial targets tended to more or less "safely" ape their federal victories and near-victories, i.e. the only real Scarborough provincial priorities were the two seats they nabbed federally, etc. Yes, that was being safe and sensible; but you can't be bogged in "safe and sensible" forever. So, Giambrone's team read between the lines in Guildwood, and pounced.
I think also that for voters in S-Guildwood, just seeing media reports that the NDP was running someone known to be a high profile "star candidate" gave them the message that the NDP was taking the riding seriously this time and that voting NDP was not going to be a wasted vote. In Etobicoke-Lakeshore it was obvious that the NDP was a serious contender and so the vote crashed to 7%. I'm not sure why the NDP didn't do better in Ottawa South. The candidate was a well known and well qualified school trustee...she should have had a Giambrone-like surge as well.
The by-elections are significant for the provincial and federal NDP in Ontario. Provincially, I have noticed that Andrea Horwath has kept low on the labour union front. One does not see her spouting a strong committment for organized labour rights. It doesn't mean that she doesn't believe in them. It's just that she is trying to go after the same constituents that currently support the Hudak Conservatives. For example, she proposed a 15% reduction in auto insurance rates. Who would benefit from such a reduction? Middle class people living in the suburbs and small-town Ontario who are currently inclined to support the Conservatives. This is significant because if people do not like the provincial Liberals, they can now have the NDP as a meaningful option rather than defaulting to the Hudak Conservatives.
Federally, I do expect something similar with the federal NDP. When we get closer to the next federal election, I do expect Tom Mulcair to promote policies that will attract current lukewarm Harper Conservative supporters.
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Interesting story, Mark. I was excited when I heard of the byelection here in Scarborough. Hey, I can canvass for the party and not have to commute to do it! Not to mention in Scarborough anything can happen, Dan Harris being a good example.
Then they announced Adam, and there went that idea.
Ugh.
Your anecdotes just confirm what I have always felt, that Adam's an individual of meh intellect and great confidence. A guy who thinks he's a little smarter than everybody else, and isn't.
Smarter than his party, whose nomination process he couldnt be bothered with. Smarter than the woman he lived with and presumably loved, whom he betrayed. Smarter than the women he cheated on her with, for whom he had so little respect, he couldnt be bothered to shell out 100 bucks to go rent a room. Smarter than his constituents, colleages and staff, whom he honoured by boinking people on his office couch.
What a lemon.
This is a multicultural community. The party's best idea was to run a white idiot?
We should have WON here.
I refuse to engage in childish America style attacks on a persons sex life. Who Adam has sex with and why is none of my business and honestly the less I know about that the better.
Honestly if he didn't get the nomination fairly than that is bad and fair game.
I will say I wasn't expecting the NDP to do so well in the by elections, especially not to come so close in one of the GTA ridings.
I was thrilled with the two wins. Not only taking a lib riding, but one the tories thought they were going to win.
If the election since the last ge the ONDP has won half!
I'm not sure why the NDP didn't do better in Ottawa South. The candidate was a well known and well qualified school trustee...she should have had a Giambrone-like surge as well.
Perhaps in part because thus far, the infrastructure for Andrea-mania's been much weaker in Eastern Ontario than in the Southwest--and also, in OS, it turned out that the McGuinty machine still has a mystical stranglehold on the "anti-Tory" vote. Which, compared to the pallid or inept Grit standard-bearers in Kitchener-Waterloo and London West, served to douse any equivalent surge the ONDP could've enjoyed...
Not everyone lives in the GTA with subways, streetcars and GO transit.
Yes. And even amongst those who do, a number of low paying jobs require a car. I know people who work in construction or courier jobs who have to go to different locations every hour or every week to work, and are expected to keep a woeking vehicle in order if they wish to work.
It shouldn't be that far a remove for people to pick up on. Have you ever ordered a pizza? Was the driver over twenty? Then he was probably working to pay his insane insurace premiums, and little else.
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Actually Andrea comes from Labour and lives and represents highly unionized steel town Hamilton. As for supporting Labour, NDP are out in view on picket lines and labour functions, including invites to speak. They support working people which includes unionized and non-union people where some would be considered "middle class".
As a teacher, I found that once Bill 115 was passed which imposed a "contract" on teachers, Andrea Horwath went completely silent. She may speak at the Elementary Teachers' Federation of Ontario AGM next week. The problem is that she only takes concerns about teachers at special events such as AGMs, rallies, and protests. Outside of special events, she gives me the impression that she does not care about labour rights.
I don't expect Andrea Horwath to give all her time supporting teachers as there are many other issues that concern her and other Ontarians. I had expected a statement or two from her after Bill 115 had passed stating that she would support free collective bargaining if her party forms the next government. I heard nothing. Many of my fellow teachers who are interested in politics complained about Andrea Horwath remaining silent. We need to hear her voice--and not just at special events. Note: I did not help in any of the by-elections for the NDP. Nor did I donate any money to the provincial NDP. If Andrea Horwath continues to remain silent, I will not help the NDP in the next provincial election. I will not donate any money. I will not vote. Andrea Horwath needs to earn my vote. Don't take it for granted.
Note: I did not help in any of the by-elections for the NDP. Nor did I donate any money to the provincial NDP. If Andrea Horwath continues to remain silent, I will not help the NDP in the next provincial election. I will not donate any money. I will not vote. Andrea Horwath needs to earn my vote. Don't take it for granted.
Judging from the stellar results the ONDP had in the byelections - evidently your help was not missed!
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