Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

terrytowel wrote:

I feel sorry for George Smithermann. First losing Mayor, now this.

Why? He's a neo-liberal and a dick.

Lens Solution wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

I have to wonder why Freeland has chosen Toronto over Edmonton.

Because that's where the by-election is ?

Absolutely. She's being an opportunist. Although she will struggle to put it in those terms. I'd take her more seriously if she had decided to run in Alberta, and put the party before her personal ambition. She could probably have had her pick of nominations in Alberta, and slogged away for years as a good party soldier, with absolutely no recognition except from a few in the party. Who knows, she might even have improved Albertans' sewer-level opinion of Liberals. Here she's got a quick hit, and if all goes well, she's off to the Commons in less than a year. Yeesh.

I held my nose and voted for Smitherman for Mayor. He was a pathetic candidate who blew the election for Ford. He will now make tens of thousands of dollars through his political connections. Of all the people out there who have been fucked by successive Liberal and Conservative governments, you feel sorry for *him*?

ctrl190 wrote:

It's unfortunate that Jen Hollett has her back against the wall. She is a very strong candidate - activist, journalist, Much VJ, Harvard MPA - but doesn't have a fighting chance against the Liberal upper crust Rosedale and Church Street machinery. Especially frustrating considering the potential vacancy in Trinity-Spadina next year.

Rosedale maybe--but re Church Street, I think Hollett's MM background may give her more of an upper hand than you think...

OnTheLeft wrote:

So you'd be happy with the anti-worker "lesser evil" who would still [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2010/03/03/george_smitherman_backs... services[/url], including the tax revenue lucrative and very affordable [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2010/03/05/hume_privatizing_not_the_answ... Parking Authority[/url]?

Yep. Ford had a message: stop the gravy train, eliminate waste. Smitherman, seeing Ford in the lead, decided to take on the same message. He was "me too", but couched in conditionals and exceptions. It's not a surprise that he lost. Too bad he's not running in Toronto Center. It would have made for an easy NDP pick-up.

Quite the contrary... the seat is a red anomaly in a sea of orange. It was Bob Rae's credibility with the "progressive non-partisan" (would vote NDP, would vote Liberal, take it on a case-by-case basis) that allowed them to hang onto the seat. Otherwise it would have gone the way of the neighboring ridings. Smitherman is tainted by scandal, and people don't like voting for losers.

Smitherman is the Hazel McCallion of Toronto Centre. IF he got the Liberal nomination, he wouldn't even have to campaign.

It would be a walk in the park for him to win, no campaiging necessary.

I don't don't know if terrytowell lives in Toronto Centre, but I do.

I was privately hoping that Smitherman would be the Liberal candidate because I regard him as very beatable. Probably his party does too which is why he was told not to run.

He is perceived as having run a very bad campaign for mayor, veering unsuccessfully to the right to outflank Rob Ford and squandering a huge lead to a fool. Many people regard him as responsible for Ford winning.

Then there is his lamentable record in the McGuinty government. He was closely connected with E-Health and Ornge. he would also have been punished for the gas plant scandal, just as the government was in the by-elections.

May I suggest to terrytowell that George would have a better chance running in Halifax.

nicky wrote:

I don't don't know if terrytowell lives in Toronto Centre, but I do.

I was privately hoping that Smitherman would be the Liberal candidate because I regard him as very beatable. Probably his party does too which is why he was told not to run.

The last poll done in Toronto Centre (June 2013) show the Liberals 25 points AHEAD of the NDP. There are only five points separating the NDP and Conservatives.

Nicky obviously doesn't know Toronto Centre that well, despite living in the riding.

Again with polling like that, it would be a walk in the park for any candidate carrying the Liberal banner.

janfromthebruce & nicky wrote:

I suggest George run in Halifax too! He'd be a shoe in.

Why not? Since Liberals are polling at 49% in Nova Scotia, while the NDP are barely hanging on to double digits at 12%. Even the Conservatives are ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia, so there would be no shot on splitting the progressive vote in NS.

terrytowel wrote:

janfromthebruce, nicky & Aristotleded24 wrote:

I suggest George run in Halifax too! He'd be a shoe in.

I said nothing of the sort. Please retract.

Linda McQuaig enters NDP race in Toronto Centre. www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/08/06/columnist_linda_mcquaig_enters_nd...

And Susan Delacourt in TorStar also seems to take a swipe at Freeland in Toronto Centre byelection tests Justin Trudeau’s ‘open race’ vow

In June, Freeland was in Ottawa just as Bob Rae was getting ready to announce he was stepping down as MP for Toronto Centre and triggering the byelection.

Freeland, who has lived and worked in New York for the past decade, was in Canada to speak at a conference of the National Union of Public and General Employees, which was held from June 14-16. She had breakfast with Trudeau and they talked about her being a candidate for his team — Trudeau was aware that Rae was leaving, a decision the former Ontario premier announced June 19 .

“I had this sort of long-term desire to come home, and then with my book, Justin’s team reached out to me,” Freeland said in an interview with the Star. “Everything that they had to say about a middle-class agenda, putting that at the centre of what they want to do — and also the positive vision of politics — that really resonated with me.”

SNIP

George Smitherman, the former Ontario health minister and Toronto mayoralty candidate, obviously reached a different conclusion. In a tactfully worded column in the Huffington Post last week, Smitherman strongly hinted that he would be fighting Trudeau if he decided to contest the nomination against Freeland.

“Fighting with Liberals isn’t my strong suit,” Smitherman wrote. “First comes loyalty to the leader.” He also said he wouldn’t be a candidate in 2015.

Freeland grew up in Alberta and worked for two years as a senior editor at the Globe and Mail, but most of her career has been spent out of the country — leaving her open to accusations that she is a parachute candidate, or, as some critics say, the new version of former leader Michael Ignatieff.

SNIP

She says, however, that she has kept her Canadian connections and indeed, in her book, Plutocrats, she thanks people such as former prime minister Paul Martin, former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney for their help.

Yes Paul Martin of Canadian Shipping lines who had his ships fly under a foreign flap so his company didn't have to pay all those Canadian benefits and pensions. The same Liberal Martin who did the liberal austarity which was so right wing and in which PC Mulroney only dreamed of. Remember the same Liberals who took workers' employment insurance money to balance the liberal budget - how progressive is that?

Oh I could go on but freeland has good company for fake progressive values.

So glad that Linda McQuaig is running.

Lens Solution wrote:

Kady O'Malley reports that Freeland has an impressive set of campaign managers in place, including current Toronto Centre MPP Glenn Murray and former Toronto Centre MP Bill Graham. Looks like she means business and has brought in the big guns.  Won't be a campaign of amateurs, anyway.

I wondered why she needed all this heavy guns. Now we know. She probably heard through the grapevine about Linda McQuaig and is running scared. No one is going to like a parachute candidate, and someone who hasn't lived in the riding. She will probably get the 'just visiting' label.

This is going to be an interesting race.

I was excited about Susan Hollett running but Linda McQuaig seems so eloquent. Her career also makes a great contrast with Chrystia Freeland. Linda McQuaig is like Chrystia Freeland if she had lived in Canada and wasn't right-wing. Maybe there is a connection there.

Ironic that Freeland wrote a book called "Plutocrats" given that she is going to be parachuted in from abroad into a Liberal safe seat by a Trudeau. What do you call that?

felixr wrote:

Ironic that Freeland wrote a book called "Plutocrats" given that she is going to be parachuted in from abroad into a Liberal safe seat by a Trudeau. What do you call that?

The ironies abound - to the extent that Toronto Centre is a "safe Liberal seat" at all (and that remains to be seen), its only because the plutocrats of Rosedale vote massively for Freeland's beloved Liberal party!

terrytowel wrote:

nicky wrote:

I don't don't know if terrytowell lives in Toronto Centre, but I do.

I was privately hoping that Smitherman would be the Liberal candidate because I regard him as very beatable. Probably his party does too which is why he was told not to run.

The last poll done in Toronto Centre (June 2013) show the Liberals 25 points AHEAD of the NDP. There are only five points separating the NDP and Conservatives.

Nicky obviously doesn't know Toronto Centre that well, despite living in the riding.

Again with polling like that, it would be a walk in the park for any candidate carrying the Liberal banner.

You can't use that one Forum poll to predict the Toronto Centre by-election.  The by-election won't be for a while yet (knowing Harper he will drag it out) and the highs of Trudeaumania may have subsided.

However, it may also be the case that the closer race in 2011 in Toronto Centre was more to do with Layton's popularity and revulsion towards Ignatieff.  It's possible that now Trudeau is leader and Mulcair has replaced Layton that the NDP may not do as well as it did in the area under Layton.

So there are now 4 women running in Toronto Centre - 2 for each party.

http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/politics/inside-politics-blog/2013/08/meet-y...

Looks like the next MP for Toronto Centre will be a woman, whoever it is.  Will that be a first for Toronto Centre?  I think they've been all men so far.

nicky wrote:

Here is a list of testimonials about Linda McQuaig. Kevin O'Leary's alone is almost enough to get my suppport:

 

http://lindamcquaig.ca/endorsements/

 

The O'Leary quote is delicious!

knownothing wrote:

Jonathan Kay: Two income-equality experts converge in Toronto-Centre: The epicentre of inequality

Quote:

In the concluding chapter of The Trouble with Billionaires, McQuaig makes her policy recommendations very clear: She advocates a marginal tax rate of 60% for incomes above $300,000, and 70% for incomes above $2.5-million — plus an inheritance tax, the eradication of high-end tax-shelters, and the creation of a tax on speculative investments. That may sound radical, but it’s not so different from some of the progressive policies implemented by the (economically healthy) nations of Scandinavia. The question is: Will Thomas Mulcair give her the green light to campaign openly on this sort of thing?

Good question.

Yeah, that's a smart and successful policy. In Scandinavia it would also be safe and moderate. Here, it's radical, because we have a neighbor to the south that thinks tax cuts for the wealthy are good for everyone, and taxes on the wealthy are bad for everyone. I would love to see the NDP campaign on this, but they're going to need a push.

Well in a constitution of the party there is responsibilities and duties which give certain authority to the leader. We don't run the party, for example by group decision making - nothing would happen.

Instead of getting on high horses here we should be excited that Linda wants to run for the NDP, and moreover, her application to be a candidate has been vetted and accepted. That would be a good indication that the NDP executive and the NDP by extension likes her economic positions.

Linda's outlined position in the book, I'ts the Crude dude is very much the position the NDP has taken and is alined progressively.

There are rumours that more Tory MPs could step down and cause more byelections. In particular in Palliser, SK where the Tories beat the NDP by just 500 votes, the Tory incumbent Ray Boughen is very old and ailing and there is speculation the Tories may get him to quit now so they can defend his "rurban" seat now and get a new incumbent, as opposed to waiting until 2015 when the new map will create an NDP leaning seat out of most of the riding.

Noah Evanchuk was the NDP candidate who came so close last time and I would imagine that if there is a Palliser byelection, he would be the one to watch for the NDP.