Electoral Maps 5

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Fri, 2013-11-15 14:48

scott16

Wilf Day wrote:

David Young wrote:
Depending on whether Ralph Goodale decides if staying with a third-place party again after the next election is his best option, I would say that all 3 Saskatoon seats are in play, as are the other two Regina seats (besides Goodale's Wascana) as well as the northernmost riding, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River (especially if Lawrence Joseph wants to repeat as candidate, after losing by 794 votes in 2011).

Agreed. The 2011 votes transposed to the new ridings are:

Saskatoon West: NDP by 2663 votes, 8.72%
Regina—Lewvan: NDP by 609 votes, 1.59%
Note that Saskatchewan NDP voters cast enough votes in 2011 to elect five MPs. The new boundaries give them two MPs, showing that less than half of the problem was the boundaries. The biggest villain is still winner-take-all.

But other seats are indeed in play:

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: Conservative by 461 votes, 2.17%
Saskatoon—Grasswood: Conservative by 3740 votes, 10.36% (successor to Blackstrap)

Saskatoon—University: Conservative by 3715 votes, 10.67% (successor to Saskatoon--Humboldt)

Regina—Qu'Appelle: Conservative by 4424 votes, 14.56% (including Wynyard)
Regina—Wascana: Goodale by 2233 votes, 6.12% (if he runs again at age 66, and why not?)

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan: Conservative by 10301 votes, 27.8% (successor to Palliser)
Prince Albert: Conservative by 9980 votes, 31.02%
Battlefords—Lloydminster: Conservative by 9841 votes, 37.86%

I mentioned Wynyard:

November 30, 2013 – 1:30 – 4:00 p.m.

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Thanks Wilf

Can anyone tell me if Brampton gets any better for the NDP?

Sat, 2013-11-16 20:00

#403

terrytowel

Are the riding for Ontario finalized? And if so will the Ontario Government be adopting these new boundaries in time for the spring election (if the house falls)

Sun, 2013-11-17 16:52

#404

Wilf Day

scott16 wrote:
Can anyone tell me if Brampton gets any better for the NDP?

Definitely:
Brampton East 2011 Redistributed Results: NDP by 2012 votes, 6.93%

The rest are farther off:

Brampton Centre:
Conservative 46.47%

Liberal 25.18%

NDP 23.27%

Mississauga North
Conservative 37.62%

Liberal 36.92%

NDP 23.13%

terrytowel wrote:

Are the ridings for Ontario finalized? And if so will the Ontario Government be adopting these new boundaries in time for the spring election (if the house falls)?

Yes, final. But the Ontario government has been mum about their intentions; a spring election will be on the present boundaries.

Sun, 2013-11-17 22:31

#405

David Young

If the new boundaries aren't going to be passed in Parliament until spring, the earliest they could be passed in the Ontario Legislature would be during a fall sitting, wouldn't they.

Or does the Ontario Legislature have summer sessions?

Would the Liberals prefer an election with the old boundaries, or feel it'd be better to wait until the new ridings come into play?

Mon, 2013-11-18 21:17

#406

DLivings

David Young wrote:

If the new boundaries aren't going to be passed in Parliament until spring, the earliest they could be passed in the Ontario Legislature would be during a fall sitting, wouldn't they.

Or does the Ontario Legislature have summer sessions?

Would the Liberals prefer an election with the old boundaries, or feel it'd be better to wait until the new ridings come into play?

I guess I'm missing something here... the provincial legislatures are legislating the federal riding boundaries? I'm surprised if the provinces are involved.

Mon, 2013-11-18 22:29

#407

Michael Moriarity

DLivings wrote:

I guess I'm missing something here... the provincial legislatures are legislating the federal riding boundaries? I'm surprised if the provinces are involved.

While Mike Harris was premier of Ontario, he passed a law that made the provincial ridings the same as the federal ones, and so they have been ever since. But once the federal ridings are changed, provincial legislation will have to be passed to again synchronize the provincial ridings. This change was made in the name of saving taxpayers money by having fewer politicians. I think it was quite wrong headed, but many disagree with my opinion.

Mon, 2013-11-18 23:25

#408

Wilf Day

David Young wrote:
Would the Liberals prefer an election with the old boundaries, or feel it'd be better to wait until the new ridings come into play?

At the moment, they are more worried about Hudak. So they don't like the new 15 ridings which, on the 2011 federal votes, go about 10 to the Conservatives, three Liberals, two NDP. They seem to be getting away with this: I have seen no mention of Hudak complaining that Wynne is short-changing the GTA suburbs which get seven of the 15.

The new 15 are: 10 in the GTA: (3 in Toronto: University—Rosedale, Don Valley North, Scarborough—Rouge Park) (3 in Peel: Mississauga Centre, Brampton Centre, Brampton South), (3 in York Region: King—Vaughan, Aurora—Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, Markham—Unionville) plus Milton. Leaving 5 more: Flamborough—Glanbrook; Kitchener South—Hespeler, Barrie—Innisfil, Rideau--Carleton, and Hastings--Lennox & Addington.

Of course, the Liberals have never liked using the federal riding boundaries, which was Mike Harris' idea. The federal boundaries Commission is not supposed to be worried about school board boundaries, health unit districts and hospital catchment areas, and other such provincial matters, so the federal ridings are not suited to electing Ontario MPPs.

And of course no other province has so few MPPs per person. But the Ontario Liberals are in no position to say Ontario needs 149 MPPs (which it would be about to get, if Mike Harris hadn't shrunk the House in 1998) when their federal counterparts had been grandstanding against Harper adding 30 MPs. So they are stuck in neutral, waiting until (they have been hoping) they can regain their majority.

One more problem: Ontario's northern ridings today are still based on the 1991 census, because they were "grandfathered" by all-party agreement around 2004, giving the north one more MPP than MP. It's weird to contemplate doing that again, but no one has another solution either, without appointing a provincial boundaries commission and instructing them to keep the number of northern MPPs unchanged.

Tue, 2013-11-19 00:12

#409

Krago

2011 Ontario Provincial Election

On existing provincial boundaries: Lib 53, PC 37, NDP 17

On new federal boundaries: Lib 60, PC 44, NDP 17

On new federal boundaries (Southern Ontario) and existing provincial boundaries (Northern Ontario): Lib 62, PC 44, NDP 16

Transposed provincial results by new federal ridings:

Ajax: LIB 48%, PC 35%, NDP 15%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing: NDP 46%, PC 28%, LIB 23%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill: PC 42%, LIB 42%, NDP 12%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Barrie--Innisfil: PC 46%, LIB 30%, NDP 19%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Barrie--Springwater--Oro--Medonte: PC 44%, LIB 33%, NDP 17%, GRN 5%, OTH 1%

Bay of Quinte: PC 41%, LIB 37%, NDP 16%, GRN 5%, OTH 1%

Beaches--East York: NDP 47%, LIB 36%, PC 14%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Brampton Centre: LIB 39%, PC 33%, NDP 21%, GRN 4%, OTH 4%

Brampton East: NDP 46%, LIB 31%, PC 19%, OTH 2%, GRN 1%

Brampton North: LIB 43%, PC 37%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Brampton South: LIB 42%, PC 34%, NDP 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Brampton West: LIB 46%, PC 30%, NDP 21%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Brant: LIB 37%, PC 34%, NDP 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound: PC 47%, LIB 26%, NDP 15%, GRN 6%, OTH 5%

Burlington: PC 40%, LIB 36%, NDP 19%, OTH 2%, GRN 2%

Cambridge: PC 37%, LIB 33%, NDP 25%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Chatham-Kent--Leamington: PC 41%, LIB 32%, NDP 24%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Davenport: NDP 46%, LIB 41%, PC 8%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Don Valley East: LIB 55%, PC 26%, NDP 16%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Don Valley North: LIB 50%, PC 32%, NDP 15%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Don Valley West: LIB 58%, PC 32%, NDP 8%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Dufferin--Caledon: PC 47%, LIB 27%, GRN 15%, NDP 11%, OTH 1%

Durham: PC 48%, LIB 28%, NDP 20%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Eglinton--Lawrence: LIB 54%, PC 34%, NDP 10%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Elgin--Middlesex--London: PC 49%, LIB 27%, NDP 22%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Essex: NDP 38%, PC 35%, LIB 25%, GRN 2%

Etobicoke Centre: LIB 51%, PC 33%, NDP 12%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Etobicoke--Lakeshore: LIB 51%, PC 29%, NDP 15%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Etobicoke North: LIB 49%, PC 24%, NDP 21%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

Flamborough--Glanbrook: PC 39%, LIB 35%, NDP 21%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Glengarry--Prescott--Russell: LIB 43%, PC 40%, NDP 14%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Guelph: LIB 42%, PC 26%, NDP 24%, GRN 7%, OTH 1%

Haldimand--Norfolk: PC 61%, NDP 19%, LIB 17%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock: PC 45%, LIB 34%, NDP 17%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Hamilton Centre: NDP 64%, LIB 16%, PC 12%, GRN 4%, OTH 4%

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek: NDP 51%, LIB 27%, PC 19%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Hamilton Mountain: NDP 47%, LIB 31%, PC 19%, OTH 2%, GRN 2%

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas: LIB 41%, NDP 27%, PC 26%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Hastings--Lennox and Addington: PC 45%, LIB 32%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Huron--Bruce: PC 43%, LIB 33%, NDP 21%, OTH 2%, GRN 2%

Kanata--Carleton: PC 48%, LIB 36%, NDP 11%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Kenora: NDP 49%, PC 38%, LIB 10%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

King--Vaughan: LIB 49%, PC 34%, NDP 12%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

Kingston and the Islands: LIB 49%, NDP 24%, PC 22%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Kitchener Centre: LIB 39%, PC 37%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Kitchener--Conestoga: PC 46%, LIB 36%, NDP 14%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Kitchener South--Hespeler: PC 40%, LIB 35%, NDP 21%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Lambton--Kent--Middlesex: PC 46%, LIB 29%, NDP 21%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Lanark--Frontenac: PC 52%, LIB 28%, NDP 16%, GRN 4%, OTH 0%

Leeds--Grenville: PC 64%, LIB 17%, NDP 15%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

London--Fanshawe: NDP 41%, LIB 28%, PC 27%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

London North Centre: LIB 45%, PC 29%, NDP 22%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

London West: LIB 46%, PC 30%, NDP 21%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Markham--Stouffville: LIB 47%, PC 35%, NDP 14%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Markham--Thornhill: LIB 50%, PC 35%, NDP 13%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Markham--Unionville: LIB 49%, PC 34%, NDP 12%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Milton: PC 47%, LIB 36%, NDP 14%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Mississauga Centre: LIB 47%, PC 31%, NDP 18%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Mississauga--Cooksville: LIB 45%, PC 34%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Mississauga--Erin Mills: LIB 45%, PC 36%, NDP 17%, GRN 2%, OTH 0%

Mississauga--Lakeshore: LIB 50%, PC 36%, NDP 10%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Mississauga--Malton: LIB 47%, PC 24%, NDP 23%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

Mississauga--Streetsville: LIB 50%, PC 31%, NDP 15%, GRN 4%, OTH 0%

Nepean: PC 51%, LIB 29%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Newmarket--Aurora: PC 46%, LIB 36%, NDP 15%, GRN 3%

Niagara Centre: NDP 46%, PC 30%, LIB 20%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Niagara Falls: LIB 36%, PC 35%, NDP 26%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Niagara West: PC 57%, LIB 23%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Nickel Belt: NDP 52%, LIB 27%, PC 18%, GRN 2%, OTH 0%

Nipissing--Timiskaming: PC 46%, LIB 28%, NDP 23%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Northumberland--Pine Ridge: PC 40%, LIB 37%, NDP 19%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Oakville: LIB 48%, PC 38%, NDP 10%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Oakville North--Burlington: PC 43%, LIB 42%, NDP 12%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Oshawa: PC 42%, NDP 35%, LIB 19%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Ottawa Centre: LIB 47%, NDP 29%, PC 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Ottawa--Orleans: LIB 46%, PC 41%, NDP 10%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Ottawa South: LIB 49%, PC 33%, NDP 13%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Ottawa--Vanier: LIB 51%, PC 24%, NDP 19%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Ottawa West--Nepean: LIB 42%, PC 39%, NDP 15%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Oxford: PC 55%, LIB 25%, NDP 16%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Parkdale--High Park: NDP 46%, LIB 37%, PC 12%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Parry Sound--Muskoka: PC 54%, LIB 18%, NDP 18%, GRN 9%, OTH 0%

Perth--Wellington: PC 40%, LIB 40%, NDP 16%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Peterborough: LIB 40%, PC 32%, NDP 25%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Pickering--Uxbridge: LIB 42%, PC 39%, NDP 15%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke: PC 71%, LIB 16%, NDP 11%, GRN 1%, OTH 1%

Richmond Hill: LIB 47%, PC 35%, NDP 13%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Rideau--Carleton: PC 58%, LIB 26%, NDP 12%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

St. Catharines: LIB 40%, PC 36%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

St. Paul's: LIB 58%, PC 21%, NDP 17%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Sarnia--Lambton: PC 48%, NDP 25%, LIB 22%, OTH 3%, GRN 1%

Sault Ste. Marie: LIB 53%, NDP 32%, PC 13%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Scarborough--Agincourt: LIB 47%, PC 32%, NDP 16%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

Scarborough Centre: LIB 51%, PC 23%, NDP 23%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Scarborough--Guildwood: LIB 49%, PC 28%, NDP 19%, OTH 2%, GRN 1%

Scarborough North: LIB 43%, NDP 30%, PC 23%, OTH 2%, GRN 1%

Scarborough--Rouge Park: LIB 46%, NDP 27%, PC 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Scarborough Southwest: LIB 44%, NDP 31%, PC 22%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Simcoe--Grey: PC 55%, LIB 21%, NDP 15%, GRN 9%

Simcoe North: PC 55%, LIB 22%, NDP 18%, GRN 5%

Spadina--Fort York: LIB 44%, NDP 37%, PC 14%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry: PC 55%, LIB 22%, NDP 21%, GRN 1%, OTH 1%

Sudbury: NDP 42%, LIB 40%, PC 15%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Thornhill: PC 48%, LIB 40%, NDP 9%, OTH 2%, GRN 2%

Thunder Bay--Rainy River: NDP 41%, LIB 33%, PC 24%, GRN 1%, OTH 0%

Thunder Bay--Superior North: LIB 44%, NDP 34%, PC 19%, GRN 2%, OTH 0%

Timmins--James Bay: NDP 53%, PC 29%, LIB 16%, GRN 1%, OTH 1%

Toronto Centre: LIB 54%, NDP 30%, PC 11%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Toronto--Danforth: NDP 54%, LIB 31%, PC 9%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%

University--Rosedale: LIB 44%, NDP 35%, PC 16%, GRN 5%, OTH 1%

Vaughan--Woodbridge: LIB 54%, PC 31%, NDP 11%, OTH 3%, GRN 1%

Waterloo: PC 45%, LIB 36%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Wellington--Halton Hills: PC 56%, LIB 27%, NDP 14%, GRN 3%

Whitby: PC 49%, LIB 34%, NDP 14%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Willowdale: LIB 51%, PC 32%, NDP 14%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Windsor--Tecumseh: LIB 43%, NDP 33%, PC 21%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Windsor West: LIB 41%, NDP 31%, PC 25%, GRN 3%

York Centre: LIB 46%, PC 35%, NDP 14%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

York--Simcoe: PC 53%, LIB 25%, NDP 16%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%

York South--Weston: LIB 45%, NDP 42%, PC 11%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

York West: LIB 50%, NDP 35%, PC 12%, OTH 1%, GRN 1%

Sat, 2013-11-23 01:55

#410

Wilf Day

Krago wrote:

Transposed provincial results by new federal ridings.

Excellent.

Spadina--Fort York (Rosario Marchese?): LIB 44%, NDP 37%, PC 14%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Ranking prospects:

York South--Weston: LIB 45%, NDP 42%, PC 11%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Oshawa: PC 42%, NDP 35%, LIB 19%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

University--Rosedale: LIB 44%, NDP 35%, PC 16%, GRN 5%, OTH 1%

York West: LIB 50%, NDP 35%, PC 12%, OTH 1%, GRN 1%

Thunder Bay--Superior North: LIB 44%, NDP 34%, PC 19%, GRN 2%, OTH 0%

Windsor--Tecumseh: LIB 43%, NDP 33%, PC 21%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Sault Ste. Marie: LIB 53%, NDP 32%, PC 13%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Windsor West: LIB 41%, NDP 31%, PC 25%, GRN 3%

Scarborough Southwest: LIB 44%, NDP 31%, PC 22%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Scarborough North: LIB 43%, NDP 30%, PC 23%, OTH 2%, GRN 1%

Toronto Centre: LIB 54%, NDP 30%, PC 11%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Ottawa Centre: LIB 47%, NDP 29%, PC 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas: LIB 41%, NDP 27%, PC 26%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Scarborough--Rouge Park: LIB 46%, NDP 27%, PC 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Niagara Falls: LIB 36%, PC 35%, NDP 26%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Peterborough: LIB 40%, PC 32%, NDP 25%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Cambridge: PC 37%, LIB 33%, NDP 25%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Sarnia--Lambton: PC 48%, NDP 25%, LIB 22%, OTH 3%, GRN 1%

Brant: LIB 37%, PC 34%, NDP 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

Chatham-Kent--Leamington: PC 41%, LIB 32%, NDP 24%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Guelph: LIB 42%, PC 26%, NDP 24%, GRN 7%, OTH 1%

Kingston and the Islands: LIB 49%, NDP 24%, PC 22%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Mississauga--Malton: LIB 47%, PC 24%, NDP 23%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

Nipissing--Timiskaming: PC 46%, LIB 28%, NDP 23%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%

Scarborough Centre: LIB 51%, PC 23%, NDP 23%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Elgin--Middlesex--London: PC 49%, LIB 27%, NDP 22%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

London North Centre: LIB 45%, PC 29%, NDP 22%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Etobicoke North: LIB 49%, PC 24%, NDP 21%, OTH 3%, GRN 2%

Flamborough--Glanbrook: PC 39%, LIB 35%, NDP 21%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

Brampton Centre: LIB 39%, PC 33%, NDP 21%, GRN 4%, OTH 4%

Brampton West: LIB 46%, PC 30%, NDP 21%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Huron--Bruce: PC 43%, LIB 33%, NDP 21%, OTH 2%, GRN 2%

Kitchener South--Hespeler: PC 40%, LIB 35%, NDP 21%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Lambton--Kent--Middlesex: PC 46%, LIB 29%, NDP 21%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

London West: LIB 46%, PC 30%, NDP 21%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry: PC 55%, LIB 22%, NDP 21%, GRN 1%, OTH 1%

Durham: PC 48%, LIB 28%, NDP 20%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Hastings--Lennox and Addington: PC 45%, LIB 32%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Kitchener Centre: LIB 39%, PC 37%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

St. Catharines: LIB 40%, PC 36%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Northumberland--Pine Ridge: PC 40%, LIB 37%, NDP 19%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Burlington: PC 40%, LIB 36%, NDP 19%, OTH 2%, GRN 2%

Barrie--Innisfil: PC 46%, LIB 30%, NDP 19%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Scarborough--Guildwood: LIB 49%, PC 28%, NDP 19%, OTH 2%, GRN 1%

Ottawa--Vanier: LIB 51%, PC 24%, NDP 19%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

Haldimand--Norfolk: PC 61%, NDP 19%, LIB 17%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

Some long-shots? But with 121 MPPs, a majority is 61. The above totals 63. And look at the by-election victor:
Waterloo: PC 45%, LIB 36%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

Sat, 2013-11-23 11:33

#411

Krago

Electoral Maps 5

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