La Presse; Liberals maintain lead at 40 per cent, PQ rebounds

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Wed, 2013-08-21 13:26

DaveW

Cover page of La Presse today: Couillard's PLQ at 40 per cent, Marois and PQ at 29, a slight recovery:

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201308/20/01-4681672-sondage-couillard-en-avance-marois-remonte.php

Fairly consistent with pre-summer polls, but Marois' visibility at Lac Megantic kept her in public eye, and favourably.

Last 3 elections PQ in the same 28-32 per cent range, but that has meant anything from 3rd place and facing to minority govt in 2012 ... but with Charest out of the way Liberal fatigue no longer a big factor.

CAQ fading at 20 and Q Solidaire (7) not gaining from anybody...

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Wed, 2013-08-21 13:29

DaveW

re the uncorrectible text above... "3rd place and FADING" in 2007 for PQ...

re Presse analysis:

C'est le vote chez les francophones qui brouille les analyses. Le Parti québécois arrive en tête avec 35%, contre 28% pour le PLQ et 24% pour la CAQ. «Le Parti libéral pourrait être majoritaire tout en étant deuxième chez les francophones», mais les calculs se compliquent «quand il y a une lutte à trois», estime Youri Rivest. Le départ de Jean-Martin Aussant porte un coup dur à Option nationale, dont les appuis fondent de moitié, à 2%. Québec solidaire fait une chute importante, passant de 11% à 7%. «Quand le vote pour ces deux partis descend, c'est un autre indicateur positif pour le Parti québécois», souligne Youri Rivest.

Thu, 2013-08-22 13:02

DaveW

at the federal level, also a Liberal Party rebound, with Justin clearly in the lead across Quebec: "far behind" is NDP of Mulcair:

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201308/21/01-4682050-sondage-crop-justin-trudeau-loin-devant-sauf-a-quebec.php

Le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) de Thomas Mulcair demeure deuxième. Mais un lointain deuxième, à 27 %. Mince consolation pour le NPD pour ce qui est de courtiser l'électorat francophone, il demeure pratiquement à égalité (31 %) avec le PLC (33 %).

Le Bloc québécois continue d'être une force marginale dans les deux cas. Le parti de Daniel Paillé aurait eu 17 % des intentions de vote à travers le Québec; 20 %, pour ce qui est des francophones uniquement.

Fri, 2013-08-23 04:00

Aristotleded24

DaveW wrote:
at the federal level, also a Liberal Party rebound, with Justin clearly in the lead across Quebec: "far behind" is NDP of Mulcair

And that is precisely why Mulcair mused about creating a Quebec section of the NPD. While it seems this provincial branch would draw significantly from all 4 parties currently represented, it's clear that the biggest losers would be the Liberals, since this gives federalist voters a left-of-centre option to support. Of course, if support for the Parti libéral du Québec were to evapourate, that would also have an impact on the federal party, and thus entrench the NPD as the dominant party federally as well.

Fri, 2013-08-23 05:32

Ken Burch

It truly blows my mind that that poll shows 93% of non-francophones in Quebec supporting the PLQ, apparently solely due to the federalist/sovereingtist split.

You'd think that, with that particular issue now totally on the backburner in Quebec, anglophones might possibly consider casting their ballots in Quebec elections on OTHER concerns...especially since, even if sovereignty did happen, it wouldn't really affect non-francophones all that bloody much.

Fri, 2013-08-23 08:35

pookie

Ken Burch wrote:

It truly blows my mind that that poll shows 93% of non-francophones in Quebec supporting the PLQ, apparently solely due to the federalist/sovereingtist split.

You'd think that, with that particular issue now totally on the backburner in Quebec, anglophones might possibly consider casting their ballots in Quebec elections on OTHER concerns...especially since, even if sovereignty did happen, it wouldn't really affect non-francophones all that bloody much.

it wouldn't?

Fri, 2013-08-23 11:50

Bärlüer

No, it wouldn't.

Or, to put it differently, it would affect non-francophones pretty much the same way it would affect francophones.

Fri, 2013-08-23 14:42

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
It truly blows my mind that that poll shows 93% of non-francophones in Quebec supporting the PLQ, apparently solely due to the federalist/sovereingtist split.

You'd think that, with that particular issue now totally on the backburner in Quebec, anglophones might possibly consider casting their ballots in Quebec elections on OTHER concerns...especially since, even if sovereignty did happen, it wouldn't really affect non-francophones all that bloody much.

The problem is that the sovereigntist parties won't drop the issue, especially after QS kicked the beaver. The NPD is a federalist party but was able to do so in a way that didn't make sovereigntists feel unwelcome. QS had a chance to open up to federalist voters but dug in. It also doesn't help that many pieces I've seen written by left-wing writers on Quebec insist that sovereignty is an esseential part of any left-wing program.

Of course, the mis-steps of the current PQ government aren't helping either.

Sun, 2013-08-25 00:57

Alberta Observer

I think Ken Burch is really missing a big point. You get 93% support by non-francophones when it is Justin Trudeau, not Thomas Mulcair who denonouces the PQ "secularism" idea. The non-francophones know that the P.Q idea is an appeal to the old style intolerant pure-laine concepts. They are outside that tight circle.

The concept of federal/provincial politics is irrelevant in this case. The non-francophones just got a big reassurance that the Liberals (federal and provincial) "get it" on some of their deepest concerns, while the NDP/NPD appears to hold back while debating how a stand might play in francophone Quebec.

If a francophone party appears less threatening on this basic issue, it is the Quebec Solidaire not NPD, BQ, P.Q etc.

Really incredible that Harper is remaining silent on this, but maybe the gamble/guess is that the so-called secularism initiative plays reasonably well in the Quebec City area where the CPC still has some levels of support.

Tue, 2013-08-27 01:23

#10

Aristotleded24

Alberta Observer wrote:
If a francophone party appears less threatening on this basic issue, it is the Quebec Solidaire not NPD, BQ, P.Q etc.

Interesting observation. But where is support for the PQ headed? If it's just a simple matter that people are fed up with the PQ breaking their promises and going off on crazy tangents, then QS should be rising in public opinion corresponding to the drop in support for the PQ. Why is that not the case? Could it be that QS maintaining a hard-line sovereigntist identity is alienating people who might otherwise be attracted to its policy programme?

Fri, 2013-08-30 15:51

#11

Deckard

It blows my mind that the PLQ is getting any % larger than the Mafia membership. I should start learning Norwegian and pull the plug on the Noth American continent

Ser deg seinare!

Thu, 2013-09-19 10:11

#12

DaveW

the PLQ and also federal Libs slipping a bit after new leaders gave them boosts:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberals+lose+ground+Quebec+CROP+poll/8932189/story.html

QUEBEC — Both the provincial and federal wings of the Liberal party have dropped significantly in Quebec popularity over the summer, according to a fresh poll.

The provincial Liberal lead over the Parti Québécois fell from 13 to 5 percentage points between June and this month, according to the CROP poll. It was commissioned by La Presse.

The results were drawn from 1,000 respondents on the Internet; no margin of error was provided. The poll was conducted between last Thursday and Sunday.

The Quebec Liberal Party garnered 35 per cent support. That compares with 30 per cent for the governing PQ; 21 per cent for the Coalition Avenir Québec; and 11 per cent for Québec solidaire, CROP said.

Dissatisfaction with the PQ minority government of Premier Pauline Marois reached 61 per cent.

Thu, 2013-09-19 10:43

#13

lagatta

Aristotle, these things must be taken with many grains of salt, but there are credible reports that QS support is growing in central Montréal. This means a chance in Laurier-Dorion and Ste-Marie. Laurier-Dorion is just north of Gouin, which of course borders on Mercier. If QS can double our seats in the National Assembly, most likely all these seats would be adjacent - but that was pretty much the case when the PQ first elected MNAs.

Sun, 2021-11-21 19:28

#14

jfb

Thu, 2013-09-19 14:09

#15

DaveW

OK, I am wrong:

on another thread I said last spring after Trudeau came in that NDP would not put a nose ahead of Liberals again.... I still think NDP Quebec roots are shallow, with no history in many many ridings won in April 2011

so we will see...

Thu, 2013-09-19 14:50

#16

Stockholm

DaveW wrote:

OK, I am wrong:

on another thread I said last spring after Trudeau came in that NDP would not put a nose ahead of Liberals again.... I still think NDP Quebec roots are shallow, with no history in many many ridings won in April 2011

so we will see...

FYI, before the Diefenbaker sweep of 1958 - the Conservative party had no roots and no history in the Prairies.

Thu, 2013-09-19 16:45

#17

DaveW

that is a good, counter-intuitive point about the Prairies and Quebec;

a bit like telling young people today that US black voters used to be a pillar of the Republican Party... Whaaa?!?

groups switch electoral allegiance as their circumstances change, like middle-class Canadian Jews whose Tory voting habits have increased visibly

on the other hand, is the NDP 2011 Layton sweep in Quebec like 1958 on the Prairies, or more like the 1980s Mulroney Tory majorities in Quebec that disappeared pretty fast ?

my first guess was the latter

Thu, 2013-09-19 16:51

#18

Stockholm

DaveW wrote:

on the other hand, is the NDP 2011 Layton sweep in Quebec like 1958 on the Prairies, or more like the 1980s Mulroney Tory majorities in Quebec that disappeared pretty fast ?

my first guess was the latter

Hard as it may be to believe today looking back, Mulroney came very close to building an enduring Tory power base in Quebec. Remember the Tories didn't just sweep Quebec once. they did it twice winning even more seats in 1988 as in 1984. If the Meech lake accord had passed, Bouchard would never have bolted and created the BQ and chances are the PCs would have remined strong in Quebec...the BQ managed to dominate QC through 6 elections before being wiped out...I think BQ is probably dead and that the likeliest medium term outlook in Quebec is that the CPC will have their 5-10 seats in CAQ-land (e.g. lower St. lawrence and parts of Quebec City), the Liberals may make a come back in the traditional heavily anglo- and allophone citadels...and if the NDP plays its cards right it will sweep everything else.

Thu, 2013-09-19 17:03

#19

DaveW

we can agree on much of that, but the Justin effect is broader than you say

Thu, 2013-09-19 18:19

#20

pookie

Bärlüer wrote:

No, it wouldn't.

Or, to put it differently, it would affect non-francophones pretty much the same way it would affect francophones.

Putting it differently actually completely changes the meaning.

Thu, 2013-09-19 19:06

#21

WyldRage

Never assume Québec will stay stable and continue voting the same way. We literally changed our collective allegiance in a week in the last election, and it also happened for the ADQ in 2007. Are we fickle? No, it was simply the first time since Mulroney that a federal party showed understanding and a willingness to solve Québec issues. The worst thing the NDP could do is take Québec for granted, especially since their new leader is was a Minister under Charest (if the UPAC found something, he could be dirtied by association).

Why has Trudeau dropped so precipitously? It's rather simple: he called his francophone base racists (I won't go into that debate here). Explanation: the Liberal brand is huge with anglos and allophones, but there is also a strong francophone base, the old pure-laine Catholics who are Federalists and who remember Lesage and the first Trudeau, yet are also strongly in favor of the Charter. By taking a black and white moral approach to his opposition, he alienated them, and they went back to the NDP and the conservatives.

Thu, 2013-09-19 20:09

#22

autoworker autoworker's picture

Trudeau has more to gain outside Quebec by staking a strong position against religious discrimination. Besides, he doesn't need to win a plurality in Quebec to form a majority government. The NPD have much more to lose there, and nationally if this controversy continues, as it likely will.

Fri, 2013-09-20 10:13

#23

Stockholm

The worst thing that can happen to Justin Trudeau in Quebec is for the best thing to happen for Canada - and that is for the PQ and Marois to lose power and for the Quebec liberals to come back under Couillard. Trudeau is essentially a pyromaniac trying desparately to polarize the debate in Quebec and recreate the zeitgeist of late 1970s and mid 90s. To do that he desperately needs a PQ provincial government as his foil. If the PQ is gone and Quenec goes back to the norm of people holding their nose and electing ridiculously unpopular Quebec Liberal governments - the consequences for the federal Liberals are very grave. What's good for Canada is bad for Trudeau and vice-versa.

Fri, 2013-09-20 10:33

#24

lagatta

Who wants the Federal Liberals anyway when the NDP are ahead of them?

Getting rid of the Con majority would be a good thing, but why want to increase the Liberal vote at the expense of the NDP?

Trudeau just doesn't "get" modern Québec society. I was furious about his comparison of the Charter stuff with the US South in the pre Civil-Rights era, and I certainly don't support the proposed Charter as written (or leaked). His fief is Parc-Extension, a ghetto of newcomers and ethnic power-broker politics, which is a terrible thing for immigrant workers.

Thu, 2013-09-26 12:49

#25

DaveW

Forum polling, a second-tier pollster, puts Liberals well ahead of PQ right now:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/09/15/quebec-liberals-jump-to-7-lead-over-pq-as-backlash-grows-over-quebec-values-charter/

A recent boost in support for the Quebec Liberals means the party could secure a “hair thin” majority in the province if an election were called today, suggests a new public opinion poll.

The poll, conducted by Forum Research, found support for Liberals in the province has jumped to 42% — up more than 10 points since the 2012 election — in the wake of the proposed Quebec charter of values.

Support for the Parti Quebecois sits at 35%, according to the poll. Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) came in third place with 12% support.

“We know from our polling that the proposed Charter is very popular among PQ supporters,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a Saturday statement, “but it appears that the ire it has raised amongst everyone else has blunted its usefulness as an electoral tool.”

Thu, 2013-09-26 13:08

#26

DaveW

a "ghetto of newcomers"?? how so?

anyway, you are not the target voter for a Justin, way way to his Left;

it is the broad middle of the QC electorate that does not like Harper et cie. and follows politics only intermittently ... meaning, statistically the average Quebecer

Tue, 2013-10-22 17:29

#27

DaveW

latest CROP results much tighter than poll at top of this thread (Libs 40-PQ 29) from late August,

but at 38-34, still a roll of the dice for PQ and Marois, as dissatisfaction levels remain very high, and economy emerging as stronger issue for Liberals and Couillard:

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201310/21/01-47021...

La tendance paraît favorable au Parti québécois, tant en ce qui concerne les intentions de vote - particulièrement chez les francophones - qu'en ce qui a trait au rattrapage réalisé par Pauline Marois dans la catégorie «Meilleur premier ministre». Mais elle ne l'est peut-être pas suffisamment pour se lancer en campagne électorale à court terme, croit le vice-président de CROP, Youri Rivest. Pas sans vrais risques, en tout cas.

Les libéraux se classent premiers dans cette enquête menée de jeudi à lundi auprès de 1000 personnes. Mais leur avance n'a jamais été aussi courte depuis l'arrivée de Philippe Couillard à leur tête.

Ils décrochent 38 % des appuis, alors que le Parti québécois en récolte 34 %. Un écart de 14 points les séparait en mai. Il est de 4 points à l'heure actuelle.

Sun, 2021-11-21 19:28

#28

jfb

Wed, 2013-10-23 15:30

#29

DaveW

checking my memories (above) of 1966 vote -- not quite, but close enough,

UN beat Liberals, despite 47-41% Liberal lead in votes cast:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election,_1966

Wed, 2013-10-23 17:25

#30

DaveW

My guess? a narrow Liberal victory -- but certainly another minority QC govt.;

there are several possibilities, I am not prejudging any; it is only October -- politics can change rapidly

Polls can be misleading. There was one hugely lopsided Quebec election back in I think 1966 when the winning party had 41 per cent of the vote and the loser -- 49 per cent;

then there was the spectacular Bourassa Liberal victory of 1970 when the new PQ polled strongly (about 30 percent) but got just 7 seats vs about 100 Liberals (the 3rd party disappeared), setting Premier Bourassa up for a huge fall eventually;

so yes, distortions occur, but pollsters in Quebec agree on 2 things :

1) there are many "silent" Liberal voters who discreetly pull the lever , but are not generally visible in polling (this happened in 2012, when Charest remained surprisingly strong)

2) minority govts generally result from the presence of 3 parties -- quite hard to fit together the mosaic for a majority govt when you trail in overall polling numbers, as Marois does today, plus PQ's very high dissatisfaction numbers;

hence her keen interest in polarizing the electorate and marginalizing the 3rd party CAQ.

Not sure it will work, pollster Leger calls it a "real risk" to call a vote. We will see.

Wed, 2013-10-23 18:09

#31

Stockholm

The reason why the Union Nationale beat the Liberals in 1966 despite losing the popular vote by a wide margin was more than just the usual Liberal over-concentration of votes in non-francophone ridings. That was part of the story - but the bigger story in 1966 was that the Quebec electoral map was very out of date and rural areas were drastically over-represented while growing suburban areas were grossly underrepresented...the UN swept all these underpopulated rural seats in the eastern townships etc... while the liberals won vast ridings in places like Laval that shoudl really have been two or three ridings each.

If the PQ manages to win despite having fewer votes than the Liberals it will be because of the Liberals wasting a lots of votes in places like the West Island - it won't be because the PQ has a ton of "pocket borough" ridings in rural Quebec

Thu, 2013-10-24 09:30

#32

DaveW

a reverse of that in 2013 might be that Marois has alienated greater Montreal and will win regional seats by wide margins, but have little or no representation in the metropolis and its growing suburbs, hence lose;

hard to win any majority that way, too

Sat, 2013-10-26 12:57

#33

Unionist

Pauline Marois says she will not call a general election in 2013. She will, however, proceed with two pending byelections on December 9. And she repeated her invitation to Liberal leader Philippe Couillard to run in Viau, unopposed by the PQ, in order to re-enter the National Assembly. Couillard had rejected that proposal when it was first made in August, saying he'd prefer to run in Roberval in the next general election. We'll see if he changes his mind.

Sat, 2013-10-26 14:27

#34

cco

Liberals polish new ethics policy

Quote:
The new code outlines a code of conduct that will apply to all Liberal MNAs, candidates, employees and even party volunteers.

On the level of principles, [b]it says Liberals will respect all laws[/b] — Quebec and Canadian — plus the regulations set out in the Electoral Act in terms of lobbying.

In other words, the radical new Liberal ethics policy is...to obey the law. Wow. Wonder how much time they spent thinking that one up. (And note that they say it'll "cost them some friends".)

Granted, that's a major step forward for the PLQ.

Sat, 2013-10-26 14:46

#35

NorthReport

What a joke!

And as if anyone is gonna believe them.

Sat, 2013-10-26 15:07

#36

Unionist

That new code, including obeying all laws, only comes into effect if and when it's passed by convention in 2014. So they still have plenty of time to reconsider.

Sat, 2013-10-26 21:32

#37

DaveW

unclear if she thought PQ had a chance of winning, a real toss of the coin

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/marois-decides-against-calling-snap-election-in-2013/article15102365/#dashboard/follows/

Jean-Marc Fournier, the Liberal party’s house leader, said Marois only backed down from calling an election after realizing she didn’t have the necessary support.

A spokesman for the Coalition party, which holds the swing vote in the legislature, said the true test for the PQ will come when it opens the province’s financial books. The party called for an immediate update on the economic situation.

Critics have accused the PQ of trying to avoid the economy by focusing on identity issues.

Opinion polls suggest the values charter remains particularly popular in the area just outside Montreal, where the Coalition managed to beat out the PQ in several ridings during the last election.

Overall, polls suggest an election could go any number of ways: the PQ could win a majority, remain a minority, or lose power altogether.

Sun, 2013-10-27 09:47

#38

cco

If I were still at uni, there would be a great paper to write on the rise and fall of the CAQ as compared to the ADQ. Seems like the modern political dynamic is that every few years, someone gets the bright idea to found a far-right party that "unites federalists and sovereigntists", made up primarily of Liberal refugees and right-wing ex-Péquistes, which gets pumped up by the conservative media and briefly shines in the polls until the people involved realize they can't stand each other and most of their candidates are clowns. Then it collapses in tragicomedy (who remembers the 2009 ADQ clusterfuck where the leadership was decided by the vote of a houseplant by the name of Gilbert Laplante?), and everyone returns to the Liberal fold. Something tells me the CAQ is about to go the way of its antecedent party.

Oh, and Fournier's a piece of shit. I'm still pissed at him from the 2005 strike. Can't wait for him to be hauled out of the National Assembly in handcuffs. The fact the PLQ has made him their Assembly leader tells me all I need to know about the sincerity of their "reforms".

Mon, 2013-10-28 11:54

#39

DaveW

still no clear analysis why Marois called it off;

might still have won a minority (barely) and avoided negative news in budget next spring;

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201310/...

and at this point, we have almost 20 years of a three-party system in Quebec, so maybe no rush for a return to two-party show, despite all Marois' attempts to polarize the electorate

Mon, 2013-10-28 15:32

#40

DaveW

a fairly good assessment of why Marois could last a while:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Macpherson+Another+months+government/9092635/story.html

When party leader François Legault founded the Coalition in 2011, he gave himself 10 more years in politics to apply his program (he had previously spent 11 years as a PQ minister and MNA until he resigned in 2009).

But with the CAQ nowhere close to forming the official opposition, let alone a government, the 56-year-old millionaire might be tempted to get it over with and go down to honourable defeat on an issue of his choosing.

Most of his MNAs, however, might not be eager to give up what might be the best job some of them will ever have.

So they might be absent from the Assembly for a confidence vote that could bring down the government.

Fri, 2013-11-01 16:25

#41

cco

Anti-corruption police focused on fundraiser featuring Normandeau, court documents show

Quote:

The Quebec Liberals have been hit with the release of heavily redacted court documents describing a police investigation seeking evidence of an illegal political financing scheme where party donations would have been exchanged for lucrative public contracts.

La Presse and Radio-Canada reported another intriguing detail from the documents: that the raid was initially scheduled for June, 2012 – just before the Charest Liberals called an election – but it was called off for “operational” reasons, and delayed for more than a year.

A party spokeswoman has denied that any political interference led to a delay.

The Liberals reacted with a statement published on their website, saying the party is co-operating with the investigation by Quebec’s anti-corruption squad, known as UPAC.

C'mon, UPAC, go for the brass ring. I want to see Couillard in bracelets, in the dock next to his old pal Arthur Porter.

Mon, 2013-11-04 11:27

#42

Unionist

Unionist wrote:

Pauline Marois says she will not call a general election in 2013. She will, however, proceed with two pending byelections on December 9. And she repeated her invitation to Liberal leader Philippe Couillard to run in Viau, unopposed by the PQ, in order to re-enter the National Assembly. Couillard had rejected that proposal when it was first made in August, saying he'd prefer to run in Roberval in the next general election. We'll see if he changes his mind.

Couillard changed his mind. He has apparently announced that he'll run in Outremont. Must have been encouraged by Coderre's underwhelming triumph last night. Does that mean the PQ won't run a candidate (not that it would make much difference)?

Mon, 2013-11-04 11:44

#43

Stockholm

Will he stay in Outremont in a general election or will he then switch to Roberval?

Mon, 2013-11-04 11:45

#44

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

Will he stay in Outremont in a general election or will he then switch to Roberval?

Good question. It's still "breaking news", so I'm waiting to see what comments he may have made.

Mon, 2013-11-04 11:45

#45

cco

I'm more interested in QS's chances there. Too soon to win it, maybe, but they did surprisingly well last time.

Mon, 2013-11-04 11:49

#46

Unionist

Ok - there's a report saying neither the PQ nor CAQ will field candidates, but Édith Laperle of QS will run (she's a staffer with CUPE).

Sat, 2013-12-07 15:58

#47

Wilf Day

Leger poll in Le Devoir:

Quote:
Si des élections avaient eu lieu cette semaine, le Parti libéral du Québec aurait recueilli 37 % des votes, devant le Parti québécois (32 %) et la Coalition avenir Québec (19 %). L’écart entre le PLQ et le PQ s’est ainsi creusé de trois points depuis le dernier coup de sonde. Chez les francophones, le PQ domine (39 %), suivi des libéraux (28 %) et de la CAQ (21 %). Le sondage Léger révèle aussi que Philippe Couillard ferait le meilleur premier ministre selon 24 % des répondants, devant Pauline Marois (21 %) et François Legault (15 %). Le gouvernement Marois demeure contesté, avec 62 % d’insatisfaction. Finalement, la population se montre toujours parfaitement divisée quant à la charte de la laïcité.

Among francophones, PQ 39%, Liberals 28%, CAQ 21%. That means a PQ majority government, doesn't it? Have previous polls shown them this far ahead? If so, what are they waiting for?

Sat, 2013-12-07 17:22

#48

DaveW

No, all options are minority now, PQ cannot get a majority with 32 percent, which is why Marois punted 2 weeks ago on a December vote

The PQ problem is that they have lost much of the French middle class, while not replacing that... hence their attempts to polarize the electorate, but it has not really worked, CAQ is still alive and stable

Sat, 2013-12-07 20:48

#49

NorthReport

Where's QS?

Mon, 2013-12-09 16:59

#50

DaveW

QS back at 8 percent,

but François David has most positive votes among leaders, while Amir Khadr among most negatives for political personalities, behind runaway leader Marois

Most significant item in poll is that the support curves of PQ and Libs have stopped converging; any bounce for PQ from polarizing charter debate has stalled/stopped.

Marois stuck with very high negatives for a year now.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/394666/mulcair-favori-des-quebecois

Le PLQ domine les intentions de vote

Si des élections avaient eu lieu cette semaine, le Parti libéral du Québec aurait recueilli 37 % des votes, devant le Parti québécois (32 %) et la Coalition avenir Québec (19 %). L’écart entre le PLQ et le PQ s’est ainsi creusé de trois points depuis le dernier coup de sonde. Chez les francophones, le PQ domine (39 %), suivi des libéraux (28 %) et de la CAQ (21 %). Le sondage Léger révèle aussi que Philippe Couillard ferait le meilleur premier ministre selon 24 % des répondants, devant Pauline Marois (21 %) et François Legault (15 %). Le gouvernement Marois demeure contesté, avec 62 % d’insatisfaction. Finalement, la population se montre toujours parfaitement divisée quant à la charte de la laïcité

Mon, 2013-12-09 17:40

#51

NorthReport

QS needs to get into the double digits. That would be sweet!