Now this guy knows how to win elections.
Wayne Gates profile: Byelection's No. 1 priority should be jobs
http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/2014/01/27/wayne-gates-profile
2090
Another Ontario by-election
Thu, 2014-02-13 14:10
#52
Thu, 2014-02-13 21:45
#53
About half the polls reported in Niagara:
135/263
NDP - 6717 41.3%
PC - 5633 34.6%
LIB - 3176 19.5%
Thu, 2014-02-13 21:50
#54
88 polls left to report, and Gates has a 1400 vote lead.
Call this one another NDP win!
Thu, 2014-02-13 22:01
#55
1300 vote lead with 39 polls to go.
Thu, 2014-02-13 23:12
#56
Looks like Niagra Falls is another bell-wether seat, having voted with the governing party in every election since 1985. I wonder...?
Thu, 2014-02-13 23:13
#57
knownothing
Final Tally Niagara Falls:
Wayne Gates NDP 14526 39.4
Bart Maves PC 13564 36.8
Thornhill we got 6.8%
Fri, 2014-02-14 00:17
#58
A solid win for the NDP and a solid loss for the PCs in Niagara. Now if only it was possible to believe that Horwath stood for anything. Unless a poll comes out tomorrow pointing to an NDP majority, I would prop up Wynne once more and enjoy this byelection thing. Better to defend 20+ seats than have to target them for pickup during a general election.
Fri, 2014-02-14 00:18
#59
It's not like Wynne didn't just give the NDP anything it wanted in the last budget. Governance by proxy!
Fri, 2014-02-14 00:54
#60
A solid win for the NDP and a solid loss for the PCs in Niagara. Now if only it was possible to believe that Horwath stood for anything. Unless a poll comes out tomorrow pointing to an NDP majority, I would prop up Wynne once more and enjoy this byelection thing. Better to defend 20+ seats than have to target them for pickup during a general election.
Why set your sights that low? Only 29 more Liberal seats need to go NDP in by-elections and then it's Premier Andrea!
Fri, 2014-02-14 02:22
#61
So comparing Forum's forecast with the actual election results in NFs:
Forum ? BY-Election / Difference
48% / 39% / 9%
33% / 37% / 4%
7% / 19% / 12%
Way too close for comfort here.
What happened?
Fri, 2014-02-14 02:25
#62
Thornhill By-Election
PCs - 48%
Libs - 41%
NDP - 7%
Fri, 2014-02-14 07:38
#63
A solid win for the NDP and a solid loss for the PCs in Niagara. Now if only it was possible to believe that Horwath stood for anything. Unless a poll comes out tomorrow pointing to an NDP majority, I would prop up Wynne once more and enjoy this byelection thing. Better to defend 20+ seats than have to target them for pickup during a general election.
I do think we will have an election in Ontario this spring. It's not because Andrea Horwath will agree to some non-confidence motion with Tim Hudak. I think Kathleen Wynne will pull the plug on the legislature and call an election.
The Ontario NDP does well winning selected by-elections by pooling its volunteers that come from different parts of Ontario. In a general election, it will be more difficult to pool its volunteers. The party has done well to make its winning by-elections into potential beach-heads in the next general election. It will be difficult for the Liberals to win these seats back.
I think that Kathleen Wynne will call an election this spring because she wants her Liberals to be the natural opposing party to Tim Hudak's retro Cons. If she waits longer, Andrea Horwath could eventually pick-up the title of the natural opposing party. Even though the Conservative candidate lost in Niagara Falls, the Conservatives did have a respectable second place finish. Tim Hudak's Conservatives could win some extra seats in parts of Ontario if the Liberals and NDP split the anti-Hudak vote.
Fri, 2014-02-14 09:56
#64
Quick and dirty map, based on 224 of the 263 'ordinary' polls, from last night's by-election.
(No results available for 'gray' polls.)
Fri, 2014-02-14 10:27
#65
Glad to see the NDP squeeze out a win. I think the Dippers were sitting with a 10% cushion when I went to bed.
Regardless, it is a satisfying victory, especially considering the vicious anti-labour attacks by the Conservatives.
Fri, 2014-02-14 10:37
#66
"So comparing Forum's forecast with the actual election results in NFs:
Forum ? BY-Election / Difference
48% / 39% / 9%
33% / 37% / 4%
7% / 19% / 12%
Way too close for comfort here.
What happened?"
Giving the margin of error, and the difficulty in predicting turnout in a by-election, it's not that bad.
Fri, 2014-02-14 11:52
#67
Forum keeps dynamiting their credibility.
Fri, 2014-02-14 15:53
#68
According to "Nicky" the NDP's own polling in Niagara Falls always had it MUCH closer than that crazy final poll by Forum - a win is a win and its worth recalling that as recently as 2007 the NDP came in fourth behind the Green party in Niagara falls with just 9% of the vote!
Fri, 2014-02-14 17:28
#69
That was quite a crash for the Liberals in Niagara Falls - thanks Justin.
Fri, 2014-02-14 22:14
#70
Though one thing the map inadvertently confirmed was my speculation that Old NOTL had a chance of being the Wynne Grits' last stronghold in the riding,,,
Fri, 2014-02-14 22:39
#71
I'm not worried the by-election turned out to be a sqeaker. The Niagara Falls is not traditional leftist territory. Labour won it in 1919, the CCF in 1943, and the NDP in 1990 and that's it. My point is the NDP and its predecessors only have won this riding when they do exceptionally well throughout the province. It is, as other have mentioned, a bellweather. Taking Windsor-Tecumseh is nothing special for the party, but winning in Niagara is a sign of something bigger.
Fri, 2014-02-14 23:29
#72
Thanks for the map in Post 63, Krago. The very preliminary results by municipality are (NDP%/PC%/Lib%/Grn%):
Fort Erie: 44% / 42% / 11% / 3%
Niagara Falls: 43% / 32% / 22% / 3%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 22% / 49% / 25% / 3%
In the 2011 Provincial election, the results by municipality (when the NDP candidate was the former mayor of Fort Erie) were:
Fort Erie: 39% / 41% / 19% / 1%
Niagara Falls: 25% / 31% / 42% / 2%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 12% / 44% / 42% / 2%
Fri, 2014-02-14 23:54
#73
I'm not worried the by-election turned out to be a sqeaker. The Niagara Falls is not traditional leftist territory. Labour won it in 1919, the CCF in 1943, and the NDP in 1990 and that's it. My point is the NDP and its predecessors only have won this riding when they do exceptionally well throughout the province. It is, as other have mentioned, a bellweather. Taking Windsor-Tecumseh is nothing special for the party, but winning in Niagara is a sign of something bigger.
What if the NDP targeted Niagara West-Glanbrook for pick-up next?
Sat, 2014-02-15 09:52
#74
Thanks for the map in Post 63, Krago. The very preliminary results by municipality are (NDP%/PC%/Lib%/Grn%):
Fort Erie: 44% / 42% / 11% / 3%
Niagara Falls: 43% / 32% / 22% / 3%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 22% / 49% / 25% / 3%
In the 2011 Provincial election, the results by municipality (when the NDP candidate was the former mayor of Fort Erie) were:
Fort Erie: 39% / 41% / 19% / 1%
Niagara Falls: 25% / 31% / 42% / 2%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 12% / 44% / 42% / 2%
The comparable results for the 1990 Provincial Election were:
Fort Erie: 44% / 22% / 26% / 8%
Niagara Falls: 47% / 13% / 26% / 14%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 21% / 29% / 43% / 7%
Sat, 2014-02-15 14:44
#75
If I was a paranoid sort I'd wonder if the deeply screwed up results of that Forum poll weren't designed to raise expectations on the NDP to ridulus levels and blunt Liberal embarrassment so they could say see we did better then expected, the NDP only won by a bit, blowing a huge lead (one which never existed of course).
Still I find the whole bellweather thing interesting, I think there will be an election this spring or Andrea Horwath gets something really big like both corporate tax increases and cutting the hst on home heating and electrity
. Its will cost Wynn big big big time for NDP support because big demands will be made, intended to be too big for Wynn to agree too.
Sat, 2014-02-15 16:03
#76
I'm not worried the by-election turned out to be a sqeaker. The Niagara Falls is not traditional leftist territory. Labour won it in 1919, the CCF in 1943, and the NDP in 1990 and that's it. My point is the NDP and its predecessors only have won this riding when they do exceptionally well throughout the province. It is, as other have mentioned, a bellweather. Taking Windsor-Tecumseh is nothing special for the party, but winning in Niagara is a sign of something bigger.
Well, it's not *obvious* territory...but then, once you factor out 1943 and 1990, what is? And besides, for much of that time a lot of that "leftist" vote which might otherwise have swung NDP was parked in the Liberal camp instead: LaMarsh federally, and against the grain of the Big Blue Machine provincially.
All in all, it's definitely "something bigger" next to Windsor-Tecumseh--but next to Kitchener-Waterloo or London West, it was more to be expected. And had Hudak not had so much invested in his hometown, the margin might've been bigger...
Sat, 2014-02-15 19:53
#77
But given that the riding is almost literally in Hudak's backyard and he still couldn't add the seat to the Conservative fold, doesn't that give voters the general impression that Hudak isn't a winner?
Sun, 2014-02-16 11:49
#78
The only time I feel good about Andrea Horwath not having any vision or policies is when I see this Concern trolling, Toronto Star style.
If the NDP's Liberal enemies could just practice a modicum of sincerity in their critiques, I could come around, but the Liberals have never stood for anything any time. Their political compass is a well-greased weather vane. Even the PC infighting is more inspiring on the policy front.
Mon, 2014-02-17 06:01
#79
I'm not worried the by-election turned out to be a sqeaker. The Niagara Falls is not traditional leftist territory. Labour won it in 1919, the CCF in 1943, and the NDP in 1990 and that's it. My point is the NDP and its predecessors only have won this riding when they do exceptionally well throughout the province. It is, as other have mentioned, a bellweather. Taking Windsor-Tecumseh is nothing special for the party, but winning in Niagara is a sign of something bigger.What if the NDP targeted Niagara West-Glanbrook for pick-up next?
Hey, in the 2007 election the NDP did better in Niagara West-Glanbrook than they did in Niagara Falls. That time they got 12.2% in NW-G and 9.8% in NF. Honestly, if I was Tim, I would be a little worried about the NDP's growing popularity in Niagara.
Mon, 2014-02-17 06:54
#80
Will Hudak have to spend more time in his own riding to get re-elected now?
Would that be bad news for the Conservatives, or is it looking more like some Conservatives would rather Hudak stay closer to home?
Mon, 2014-02-17 11:32
#81
Will Hudak have to spend more time in his own riding to get re-elected now?
No. In 2007, the NDP candidate in Niagara Falls lived in the Hamilton area, as no local person was willing to stand. The Niagara Falls Review referred to his place of residence in every article. The 2007 result for the Niagara Falls NDP was extraordinarily low.
On a separate note, referring back to Post #63, I looked at the 1990 poll by poll results, to discover that the NDP won none of the polls in the "ole town" part of Niagara on the Lake (the two polls won in NOTL in 1990 were in the St. David's and Homer communities within NOTL). So, the results in this by-election produced that unusual first.
Mon, 2014-02-17 14:38
#82
Will Hudak have to spend more time in his own riding to get re-elected now?
No. In 2007, the NDP candidate in Niagara Falls lived in the Hamilton area, as no local person was willing to stand. The Niagara Falls Review referred to his place of residence in every article. The 2007 result for the Niagara Falls NDP was extraordinarily low.
But that's my point, Robo.
This time the NDP should be able to attract a much more credible candidate in Niagara West-Glanbrook, given the success nearby in Niagara Falls (and next-door in the Hamilton ridings and Welland).
A surge in NDP support in that part of Ontario would mean Hudak would be forced to spend more time in his home riding, wouldn't it?
Mon, 2014-02-17 15:14
#83
Of the ridings in Niagara and Hamilton, NWG is the weakest for the NDP. It would have been won by the NDP in the 1990 election; on the current boundaries, every other riding in Hamilton and Niagara would also have been won by the NDP in 1990 (i.e. Jim Bradley would not have survived). There are limited resources in every campaign for every party -- no party can run "full out" campaigns in every riding. So, while the NWG NDP should run the best campaign possible, the idea that the NDP should devote central resources to win NWG is not advisable.
As well, if Tim Hudak had to struggle to win a riding like NWG, his party would be in the process of losing so many seats so as to make him staying on as PC Leader politically impossible. So, if he had to spend extra time in his own seat in order to get re-elected, he might as well accept that he will shortly be gone as PC Leader. That's just an educated guess, but one that lakes sense from me, someone outside Hudak';s inner circle.
Mon, 2014-02-17 15:44
#84
No. In 2007, the NDP candidate in Niagara Falls lived in the Hamilton area, as no local person was willing to stand. The Niagara Falls Review referred to his place of residence in every article. The 2007 result for the Niagara Falls NDP was extraordinarily low.
And as well, there was a particularly strong NF Green candidate in that peak year for Team De Jong--she probably took a lot of oxygen from the decimated local NDP organization. (Conversely, w/Redekop in place, 2011 was the Greens' turn for the basement, w/only 1.6% of the NF vote.)
Mon, 2014-02-17 15:57
#85
Of the ridings in Niagara and Hamilton, NWG is the weakest for the NDP. It would have been won by the NDP in the 1990 election; on the current boundaries, every other riding in Hamilton and Niagara would also have been won by the NDP in 1990 (i.e. Jim Bradley would not have survived). There are limited resources in every campaign for every party -- no party can run "full out" campaigns in every riding. So, while the NWG NDP should run the best campaign possible, the idea that the NDP should devote central resources to win NWG is not advisable.
And by "best campaign possible": for the sake of just-in-case, keep in mind that the NDP tends to overachieve in Stoney Creek/Glanbrook, even the rural parts (spillover from Horwath Central + a certain Ian Deans hangover political culture, perhaps); and that Pelham was under the Kormos umbrella in 1999 and 2003. It's really Lincoln and West Lincoln that's the black-hole heart of Toryism, with patches of CHP/FCP-loving Bible Belt as enhancement. Grimsby's kinda in-between (rule of thumb: the closer it hugs the Escarpment, the more NDP-incompatible it tends to be).
So, in an outer-limits way, it *could* be winnable--or at least, Hudak defeatable (remember that in the first Fed election under the present boundaries in 2004, it was supposed to be a clear Tory pickup yet Dean Allison barely squeaked through). And despite being party leader, Hudak gained no personal-turf ground btw/2007 and 2011. I suspect a Lib-NDP opposition split is more likely, and "defeat" would be Hudak winning w/less tha 40% share...
Mon, 2014-02-17 18:20
#86
The nine Ontario by-elections in the last 18 months have revealed a number of different trends.
While the NDP has spectacularly gained four seats with increases anywhere from 13% in Niagara Falls to 29% in Windsor, its vote in four other seats rose only fractionally (Vaughan +.1, Ottawa +1) or fell (Thornhill -2, Lakeshore -8.) Guildwood was somewhere in the middle (+9%).
The change in the Conservative vote in 6 of the seats fell within a narrow range (-0.1% in Windsor to +3% in London.) Larger gains or losses (Ottawa +6, Lakeshore +17%, Kitchener -12%) might be attributable to the presence or absence of candidates with strong local support.
The Liberals lost major shares of the vote in those seats they lost to the NDP but tended to maintain much more of their vote in those seats in which the Conservatives were the major challengers and the NDP nowhere in sight. In four seats where the NDP vote stagnated the Liberals did relatively well. (Vaughan L-2 N =, Ottawa L -6 N +1, Lakeshore L -9 N -8, Thornhill L+1 N -2).
Only in Guildwood was there swing which roughly reflects the swings shown in the province –wide polls (L -13,C +2, N +9).
Now to try to make some sense of this:
- In three way races the swings will reflect the polls.
- In seats where the NDP is not in contention the Liberal vote will hold up relatively well and the NDP will stay low.
- In seats where the NDP is the alternative (either to the Liberals or the Conservatives), a large portion of the Liberal vote will shift to the NDP.
- The Conservatives, like their federal cousins are the second choice of relatively few voters. Under Hudak they are ideologically unacceptable to many voters beyond their base.
- Ontario may be entering a phase of strategic voting where the Conservatives have to compete against a single strong opponent in many constituencies. We may yet be saved from a Conservative government, at least a majority one.
Mon, 2014-02-17 18:36
#87
I think we will see a lot of two-way races in most ridings. Hudak will have his loyal voters. However, his party will likely gain little support from people who voted Liberal or NDP in the last election unless either the Liberals or NDP screws up severely during the election campaign. The Ontario NDP will do well in urban and small city ridings. It will do poorly in suburban areas around Toronto. It will likely also do poorly in agricultural areas. However, it will do well in rural non-agricultural areas like northern Ontario. The NDP could do well if it is a two-way battle between the Liberals and NDP. It will also do well against the Conservatives if the NDP came second in certain ridings in the last election.
Tue, 2014-02-18 08:22
#88
It will also do well against the Conservatives if the NDP came second in certain ridings in the last election.
Or a reasonably competitive 3rd place (cf. Cambridge)
Sat, 2014-05-03 17:25
#89
Thanks for the map in Post 63, Krago. The very preliminary results by municipality are (NDP%/PC%/Lib%/Grn%):
Fort Erie: 44% / 42% / 11% / 3%
Niagara Falls: 43% / 32% / 22% / 3%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 22% / 49% / 25% / 3%
In the 2011 Provincial election, the results by municipality (when the NDP candidate was the former mayor of Fort Erie) were:
Fort Erie: 39% / 41% / 19% / 1%
Niagara Falls: 25% / 31% / 42% / 2%
Niagara-on-the-Lake: 12% / 44% / 42% / 2%
I guess Elections Ontario decided to forego their normal practice of waiting months and months to publish poll by poll results after a by-election, I would guess in light of having a general election to manage. The 2014 by-election results are now posted on the Elections Ontario web site. Here are what the final numbers showed in Niagara falls riding, by municipality (NDP%/PC%/Lib%/Oth%/Turnout%):
Fort Erie: 44% / 41% / 10% / 5% / 38%
Niagara Falls: 42% / 32% / 21% / 4% / 34%
Niag-o-t-Lake: 22% / 49% / 24% / 5% / 39%
Returning Office: 37% / 35% / 23% / 3% / 2,316 votes (or 6.2% of all votes cast)
(a) The final numbers show that Tim Hudak's home town of Fort Erie was won by a bit of a bigger margin by Wayne Gates, who had been a Niagara Falls City Councillor until the by-election.
(b) On an interesting point, I see that when all of the Advance Polls beyond the Returning Office are counted, 16.5% of all votes cast in this by-election were cast before by-election day itself. Admitting this is speculation, I wonder if the lower turnout rate by municipality is affected by the location of the Returning Office -- I presume that voters that went to the Returning Office in Niagara Square in Niagara Falls were disproportionately from the City, and thus had more of an effect on on the Niagara Falls figures when calculating turnout numbers by municipality.
(c) Oh, Krago, where are your lovely map-making skills?