ONT NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will become Premier of Ontario 2

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Wed, 2014-02-26 10:18

mark_alfred

Skinny Dipper wrote:

Andrea Horwath looks like she is promising to support a $12 minimum wage June 2016. If inflation were to exist at 3% per year, Ms. Horwath's proposal would actually be slightly less than the Liberal proposal to index to inflation which would be about $12.20.

Nonsense. Both plans begin with $11 per hour by June 1 of this year. Assuming 3% (which is unlikely), for the Libs under your scenario I calculate it would be $11.33 the next year, and then the year after (2016) it would be $11.67, not $12.20. So even under your extremely high CPI, the Liberal plan would be less than the NDP plan. 3% of $11.00 is 33 cents, which is less than the 50 cents the NDP is proposing for two years. 50 cents is about 4.55% of $11. So, the CPI would have to be greater than 4.55% for the next two years for the Liberal plan to be superior to the NDP plan. This is practically impossible. The NDP plan is superior.

The CPI for next two years is forecast at 2%, so under the Liberal plan, the minimum wage in June 2015 would be $11.22, and then in June 2016 would be $11.44. Under the NDP plan, the minimum wage in June 2015 would be $11.50, and in June 2016 would be $12.00. Thus, the NDP plan is 56 cents higher in 2016 than the Liberal plan.

Wed, 2014-02-26 17:36

#303

Catchfire

Stockholm is arguing that this policy is good not because it helps small businesses, but because your average voter likes the idea of supporting small businesses. That's true -- and exactly why the ONDP should support a high minimum wage, not because it will attract voters who make minimum wage, but because it will attract voters who think raising the minimum wage is a good thing to do.

The added bonus of the latter, which may have eluded Stockholm, is that it is actually good for people too.

Wed, 2014-02-26 18:31

#304

Unionist

mark_alfred wrote:
Thus, the NDP plan is 56 cents higher in 2016 than the Liberal plan.

Right. So if they split the difference at 28 cents, they could do a coalition!

Oh wait...

The NDP: Not my grandparents' party.

Wed, 2014-02-26 22:26

#305

mark_alfred

At 35 hours a week, the 56 cents more an hour equates to $1,019.20 extra a year. So, going with the Liberals would take over a thousand dollars from minimum wage workers' pockets.

Wed, 2014-02-26 22:28

#306

Unionist

Wow.

Thu, 2014-02-27 10:37

#307

mark_alfred

Steve Paikin gives some further thought to Horwath's letter to the premier: Maybe There's More Wiggle Room After All.

His thoughts here seemed rather obvious to me. The letter did not rule out tax increases (IE, corporate taxes) but rather opposed flat taxes and user fees.

Thu, 2014-02-27 12:41

#308

NorthReport

Sweet!

Introduce tax cuts in exchange for a $12 minimum wage: Ontario NDP

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/ontario-ndp-proposes-smal...

Thu, 2014-02-27 13:08

#309

Unionist

NorthReport wrote:

Sweet!

Yeah, sweet for employers. Instead of paying higher minimum wages out of their profits, the government subsidizes them. What a sad joke this ONDP is.

Fortunately, the MSM article quotes the voice of reason:

Quote:

"It sets the precedent that every time we talk about raising the minimum wage, businesses get to put their hand out for a tax cut too. Every time we cut taxes, there's less money to invest in transit, infrastructure and public services," Trish Hennessy, the left-leaning think-tank's [Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives] Ontario director told Yahoo Canada News.

"It also accepts the argument that minimum wage has only negative effects, when there is a building argument that says businesses that pay a higher wage benefit from increased employee loyalty, less staff turnover, fewer training costs and productivity gains.

"So, all around, political theatre but not good policy. Bottom line: We can't give business a tax cut every time we say you have to raise wages. We just can't."

Thu, 2014-02-27 14:16

#310

mark_alfred

For quite some time both the federal and Ontario NDP have supported tax cuts to small business. Likewise, both have supported increasing corporate taxes. One difference is that the Ontario NDP also supports raising taxes on the very wealthy, whereas the federal NDP have been reluctant to support this.

Thu, 2014-02-27 14:20

#311

josh

The CCPA just doesn't understand the brilliance of tactical positioning.

Thu, 2014-02-27 16:13

#312

Stockholm

josh wrote:

The CCPA just doesn't understand the brilliance of tactical positioning.

Its not their job to do that - they are an advocacy group - they aren't trying to win an election. The NDP and the CCPA have different roles to play.

Thu, 2014-02-27 21:51

#313

theleftyinvestor

There's a good reason to have progressive NGOs that do not behave as an arm of the NDP.

Thu, 2014-02-27 22:43

#314

Aristotleded24

josh wrote:
The CCPA just doesn't understand the brilliance of tactical positioning.

And the NDP just doesn't understand that it will never win the support of any major business lobby even by enacting policies more business-friendly than the other business-friendly parties.

Thu, 2014-02-27 23:19

#315

Unionist

theleftyinvestor wrote:

There's a good reason to have progressive NGOs that do not behave as an arm of the NDP.

NGO? You must be referring to the NDP. That's a non-governmental organization if I've ever seen one. Even though they have no other agenda than becoming a GO.

Fri, 2014-02-28 01:05

#316

PrairieDemocrat15

Aristotleded24 wrote:

And the NDP just doesn't understand that it will never win the support of any major business lobby even by enacting policies more business-friendly than the other business-friendly parties.

This.

Fri, 2014-02-28 12:44

#317

scott16

i have a theory about what the ONDP is doing by supporting the libs with the two most recent votes. I think Andrea is trying to wait for this OPP investigation into the deleted emails to blow up. I just wonder if this, if my theory is correct, is a good idea.

Fri, 2014-02-28 14:18

#318

mark_alfred

Cheri DiNovo's bill 67 survives second reading. link

Fri, 2014-02-28 19:22

#319

Brachina

I know small business people and they don't deserve your shit Unionist. Running a small business is hard and profit margins or hell breaking even can be difficult. I will also mention that big businesses don't get this tax cut, but any minium wage workers benifit from this too.

Nor does it cover any additional fincial help the NDP hopes to offer like reducing thier Hydro bills and so on.

And this business cut makes it more palatible to the public, which guess what makes it more likely to actually happen, the Centre for Policy Alternatives doesn't have to worry about stuff like getting elected and make it happen and consquences. Its easy when its all theory and no action.

Fri, 2014-02-28 19:56

#320

Unionist

Brachina wrote:

I know small business people and they don't deserve your shit Unionist.

Sorry? They want to pay minimum wage and get tax cuts? I really feel for them.

Quote:
Running a small business is hard and profit margins or hell breaking even can be difficult.

Why don't they run a big business, then? Hang on, let me try to squeeze out sympathy for "small business". I'll let you know when it starts coming.

Quote:
I will also mention that big businesses don't get this tax cut, but any minium wage workers benifit from this too.

Remind me... what's the definition of "small business"? Serious question, I don't know how they calculate it.

Quote:
Nor does it cover any additional fincial help the NDP hopes to offer like reducing thier Hydro bills and so on.

Whose hydro bills? Small business, or minimum wage workers? I'm not familiar with the program of reducing hydro bills.

Quote:
And this business cut makes it more palatible to the public, which guess what makes it more likely to actually happen, the Centre for Policy Alternatives doesn't have to worry about stuff like getting elected and make it happen and consquences. Its easy when its all theory and no action.

You think the so-called "public" feels sorry for "small business" and doesn't give a shit about minimum wage workers? Who is this "public" - professionals? Farmers?

It's views like yours which prevent the NDP from ever becoming a party for the vast majority of people who suffer under this anti-human social system.

Fri, 2014-02-28 21:26

#321

mark_alfred

Unionist wrote:

It's views like yours which prevent the NDP from ever becoming a party for the vast majority of people who suffer under this anti-human social system.

People who support and advocate for the NDP is not what is holding back the NDP.

Sat, 2014-03-01 01:27

#322

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Clinton's former Labour Secretary Robert Reich has launched an online petition that calls for a $15 per hour minimum wage

I think it's disgraceful for the ONDP to let multi billion dollar low wage corporate empires off the hook in the name of supposedly helping small business.

Back in 2007, the ONDP was a staunch ally in the campaign to raise the minimum wage. That's no longer the case. The ONDP has thrown the working poor under the bus.

Sat, 2014-03-01 01:45

#323

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:
I know small business people and they don't deserve your shit Unionist. Running a small business is hard and profit margins or hell breaking even can be difficult. I will also mention that big businesses don't get this tax cut, but any minium wage workers benifit from this too.

No doubt there are business owners out there who are concerned about their communities, and I think we need to hear more from them. Unfortunately, the most vocal business lobbies are of the CFIB/Chamber of Commerce type, those that adamantly fight any improvement in labour standards for working people, and until these business owners speak up, they will continue to be lumped in with the lobby groups I just mentioned. And I'm sorry, but paying your workers a decent wage and managing your business properly is something that comes along with the territory. It has also been demonstrated several times that whatever additional costs may be upon businesses from an increase in minimum wage, those are more than made up for by increased buying power among the general population.

Sat, 2014-03-01 02:14

#324

onlinediscountanvils

Brachina wrote:
Running a small business is hard and profit margins or hell breaking even can be difficult.

So? Why should workers subsidize a failing business with poverty wages? Let that capital go elsewhere.

If your business can't break even, "my advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir".

Sun, 2014-03-02 19:58

#325

epaulo13

March 22nd Raise the Rates March to the Ontario Liberal Convention

Saturday, March 22nd, 2014

Assemble at Metro Hall, King and John, 1.00 PM

Meal, rally and march

Our Pots and pans are empty, bring yours to bang!!!!!!!!!!

*Buses coming in from Sudbury, Kingston, Kitchener-Waterloo and more -
Stay Tuned for More Info!

As we head into another round of provincial elections in the spring, we will not be swayed by fake gestures and empty rhetoric from any politicians.

We're going to march on the Convention to demand from all parties:

·Raise OW and ODSP 55% to restore the spending power lost since 1995!

·Provide a $14 an hour minimum wage fully indexed to inflation!

·Fully restore the Special Diet and Community Start Up Benefits!

·No merger of OW and ODSP, stop the attack on Disability benefits!

Organized and Endorsed by: Ontario Coalition Against Poverty, Sudbury Coalition Against Poverty, Kingston Coalition Against Poverty, Poverty Makes Us Sick Waterloo Region, CUPE - Ontario, and more!

http://www.ocap.ca/node/1137

Mon, 2014-03-03 17:45

#326

Geoff

epaulo13 wrote:

March 22nd Raise the Rates March to the Ontario Liberal Convention

Saturday, March 22nd, 2014

Assemble at Metro Hall, King and John, 1.00 PM

Meal, rally and march

Our Pots and pans are empty, bring yours to bang!!!!!!!!!!

*Buses coming in from Sudbury, Kingston, Kitchener-Waterloo and more -
Stay Tuned for More Info!

As we head into another round of provincial elections in the spring, we will not be swayed by fake gestures and empty rhetoric from any politicians.

We're going to march on the Convention to demand from all parties:

·Raise OW and ODSP 55% to restore the spending power lost since 1995!

·Provide a $14 an hour minimum wage fully indexed to inflation!

·Fully restore the Special Diet and Community Start Up Benefits!

·No merger of OW and ODSP, stop the attack on Disability benefits!

Organized and Endorsed by: Ontario Coalition Against Poverty, Sudbury Coalition Against Poverty, Kingston Coalition Against Poverty, Poverty Makes Us Sick Waterloo Region, CUPE - Ontario, and more!

http://www.ocap.ca/node/1137

You can be sure the NDP will be there with bells on.

Tue, 2014-03-04 20:41

#327

mark_alfred

Thanks epaulo13. Sounds good.

Tue, 2014-03-04 21:28

#328

onlinediscountanvils

[url=http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/gerry-caplan/2014/03/all-political-parti...
All the political parties can agree: It's the hardworkingmiddleclass, stupid![/url]

Gerry Caplan wrote:
Has there ever been a moment when the political class was so united?

Gerry Caplan wrote:
As for the NDP's Andrea Horwath, it's true that she's doing swimmingly, especially since -- or maybe because -- it's not immediately evident what she stands for or what she would do as premier, other than govern on behalf of you-know-who. Maybe the sweet smell of success trumps the reasons you want to win.

Ms. Horwath seems to have lots of public support, but I wonder how motivated her troops can be by a social democratic party that remains reprehensibly mute about the minimum wage for an eternity and finally endorses the government's own new minimum that will keep workers in poverty. And where would a Horwath government get enough dough to build a better, more just Ontario? Or is that not her goal? Who knows? Has Andrea Horwath become the NDP's Justin Trudeau, all personality, no substance?

Tue, 2014-03-04 21:46

#329

mark_alfred

In support of the Ranked Ballot Initiative for Toronto's municipal elections, Ontario NDP MPP Johah Schein put forward Bill 163, City of Toronto Alternative Voting System Act.

Tue, 2014-03-04 22:34

#330

PrairieDemocrat15

mark_alfred wrote:

In support of the Ranked Ballot Initiative for Toronto's municipal elections, Ontario NDP MPP Johah Schein put forward Bill 163, City of Toronto Alternative Voting System Act.

Will the NDP be pressing for a similar system in provinical elections? It seems now is an opportune time given people are talking about it and Toronto has requested it.

Preferential or ranked voting would be especially helpful in Onatrio presently given that Hudak's leading of the PCs far to the right has made the NDP and Libs closer policy-wise than the Libs and PCs.

Tue, 2014-03-04 23:01

#331

mark_alfred

I don't think so. Preferential voting makes sense when it's an individual being elected, but when it's a party system, I think proportional representation makes more sense.

Wed, 2014-03-05 00:31

#332

PrairieDemocrat15

mark_alfred wrote:

I don't think so. Preferential voting makes sense when it's an individual being elected, but when it's a party system, I think proportional representation makes more sense.

I prefer PR, too. Although a ranked ballot is still better than pure FPTP (which all provinces have right now). Regardless, electoral reform is on the table, now i the time to press the issue.

Wed, 2014-03-05 08:13

#333

mark_alfred

On CBC radio I heard ONDP MPP Jonah Schein also tabled a bill yesterday on internships (Bill 170, Greater Protection for Interns and Vulnerable Workers Act, 2014). I'm glad to see someone addressing this.

Also noticed that the government just recently tabled Bill 171, Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014, likely due to pressure from the ONDP to reign in huckster insurance companies. It'll be interesting to see if this meets the ONDP's demands or not.

Wed, 2014-03-05 14:32

#334

onlinediscountanvils

Nora Loreto: [url=http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/nora-loreto/2014/03/confronting-rightwar... the rightward slide of the ONDP[/url]

By refusing to support the groups that are the party’s core supporters, the ONDP has sent a clear message: they’re only interested in progressive voters to get elected. They have no intention of advancing progressive policies.

This is how it’s supposed to work: social democratic parties are supposed to amplify and give formal political voice to the demands of progressive movements. In turn, labour activists and progressives are supposed to support the party.

Somehow, the folks at the ONDP have forgotten this.

The ONDP has gone too far to the right to be able to maintain itself as a political party of the left. It is at best a centrist party that defends the neoliberal status quo and, at worst, a populist party that borrows rhetoric from the right in a bid for power.

This means that if the ONDP were to form government, Ontarians could only expect more of the same.

There is no better liberal party than the Liberal Party itself and, in spite of electoral gains since 2011, the ONDP's populist, ideologically vacant approach to winning will be the undoing of the party. One only needs to look at what happened in Nova Scotia, British Columbia or at Bob Rae's reign to see the outcome of such a strategy.

If the folks at the ONDP are only concerned about getting elected, fine. It’s time to be honest about this.

But, talking from the left side of one's mouth while writing policy with one's right hand does more than disenfranchise progressives from electoral politics. It actively prohibits anything from taking one's place on the left.

Thu, 2014-03-06 14:25

#335

GregbythePond

Nora Loreto raises some important points.

"This is how it’s supposed to work: social democratic parties are supposed to amplify and give formal political voice to the demands of progressive movements. In turn, labour activists and progressives are supposed to support the party.

Somehow, the folks at the ONDP have forgotten this."

The deliberate rejection by organizers at council to respond to a request for a Q&A session with the leader and the procedural burial of the $14 minimum wage and unpaid internship "emergency" resolutions demonstrate that those governing the party direction are not interested in a dialogue.

"If a concerted effort was put into fighting the ONDP's rightward drift, where a coordinated push in riding associations across the province could force progressive change from the ground up, steering the party to the left would be a noble endeavour. If the party resisted a coordinated take-over attempt, the same group of organizers and activists should start a new party."

Addressing the rightward drift just got a whole lot harder for the membership with a constitutional amendment that was changed to an "enabling motion" on Sunday morning.

Thu, 2014-03-06 14:52

#336

Brachina

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/03/05/scott-stinson-ndp-proposa...

The mininium wage increase is not in a vaccum, the ONDP has plans to save Canadians, especially low income Canadians money on there hydro. And yeah that means remerging all those pieces of Hydro into a single publicly owned enitity again.

Fri, 2014-03-07 08:53

#337

GregbythePond

I'm confused. I think the article you reference asserts that in fact the ONDP "plan" with respect to Ontario Hydro is "crazy talk".

Fri, 2014-03-07 11:09

#338

Brachina

I don't agree with the columnist opinion of the NDP policy, I only linked to it because it gives a basic run down of the NDPs policy. Focus on the facts ingore the dumbass opinion in other words.

Fri, 2014-03-07 11:19

#339

Unionist

Thanks for linking to that article, Brachina. I wasn't aware that Andrea Horwath is promising to send every family and business a $100 cheque. How long would I have to live in Ontario to be eligible for that (just wondering)?

Bonus: If Tom Mulcair wins federally, I could deposit that cheque for cheap in just about any ATM, right?

Just want to get my facts right before looking at apartment vacancy rates.

Fri, 2014-03-07 13:30

#340

onlinediscountanvils

I think it's worth noting that this piece was brought to my attention via a tweet by my friend who ran for the NDP in the last two federal elections, with the quote; "Emergency resolutions killed by NOTdemocraticParty brass".

Simon Black: [url=http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/03/04/ontario_ndp_losing_... NDP losing its voice on minimum wage[/url]

While Wynne’s modest approach was no surprise, anti-poverty and labour movement activists were shocked by Horwath’s announcement. Perhaps not since the Bob Rae government’s backtrack on public auto insurance has the NDP’s grassroots and traditional allies in labour and social justice movements been this incensed. Such anger was palpable at last weekend’s NDP provincial council meeting in downtown Toronto where a number of emergency resolutions were brought forward to bring the party in line with the $14 demand. These efforts were effectively squashed by party brass.

and...

Horwath’s proposal suggests that Ontario’s New Democrats are no longer on the side of some of the most vulnerable workers in our economy. Many grassroots members are concerned about that, along with the party’s relative silence on issues such as social assistance rates which force poor families to choose between feeding the kids and paying the rent. There is an understandable fear that the NDP’s rightward shift on economic issues undermines the party’s traditional message of social justice.

On the level of electoral politics, Horwath’s move is part of a grand strategy to attract disaffected Liberal voters by broadening the party’s appeal to the “middle-class” through pocketbook issues like lower auto-insurance rates. In doing so, the NDP is seeking to shed its image as a party dominated by trade union interests and social movement campaigners.

As a political strategy, it is doomed to failure. The key to an NDP majority lies in the 40 per cent of Ontarians who fail to turn up at the polls, disproportionately low-income families, youth and those with lower levels of formal education. A strong message of social justice, higher minimum wages, free post-secondary tuition and the creation of good, unionized jobs, along with intensive community outreach and organizing — not slick rebranding and overtures to an amorphous “middle-class” — would go a long way to forming the political base the party needs to win government.

Furthermore, as last year’s BC provincial election made clear, when the NDP alienates its traditional base, these voters are likely to just stay home on Election Day, hurting the party’s chances.

Fri, 2014-03-07 15:28

#341

Unionist

Well there's a clear, consistent, and courageous article. Thank you, oda! Do you think they'll turf him from his vice-president's position?

Fri, 2014-03-07 16:29

#342

Pogo

"The key to an NDP majority lies in the 40% of families that do not turn out to the polls" What a bunch of rubbish.

Fri, 2014-03-07 16:32

#343

wage zombie

Obama showed that conventional thinking about the uselessness of courting non-voters was wrong.

Fri, 2014-03-07 17:04

#344

epaulo13

pogo

..this is the actual quote

"The key to an NDP majority lies in the 40 per cent of Ontarians who fail to turn up at the polls, disproportionately low-income families, youth and those with lower levels of formal education."

Fri, 2014-03-07 18:56

#345

Aristotleded24

Since the Manitoba NDP is always held up as the model for success for the NDP, now is a [url=http://policyfix.ca/2014/03/07/manitoba-budget-a-leap-forward-for-povert... time for Horwath to advocate higher social assistance rates[/url]

Fri, 2014-03-07 21:08

#346

onlinediscountanvils

Unionist wrote:
Well there's a clear, consistent, and courageous article. Thank you, oda! Do you think they'll turf him from his vice-president's position?

It is a very good article, but I should clarify; I do not know the author. The friend I was referring to (the twice federal candidate, and rock-solid grassroots activist on many issues) merely circulated it on social media today, along with the one-line synopsis about the "NOTdemocraticParty". He already cancelled his membership with the Ontario NDP last May, in protest over the direction of the party. I don't know what his current standing is with the federal party.

As a sometime NDP voter, but never a party member, I wouldn't know how the ONDP will react to the author of this piece. I can't imagine they'd be pleased about it. But good on him for writing it.

Fri, 2014-03-07 21:23

#347

PrairieDemocrat15

Merge OPG, Hydro One, IESO, and the OPA, ban non-utility electricty retailers, and announce that Ontario will not entertain any more privately owned electrictiy generation or transmission assests. Then Ontario can start to contain inceasing hydro bills brought on by the Conservatives' creation of an electricty "market" and the Liberals' encouragment of private generation through the Green Energy Act.

Fri, 2014-03-07 21:37

#348

Unionist

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

Unionist wrote:
Well there's a clear, consistent, and courageous article. Thank you, oda! Do you think they'll turf him from his vice-president's position?

It is a very good article, but I should clarify; I do not know the author.

A quick search reveals he's been writing pretty fine stuff for years, several columns having been picked up by [url=http://rabble.ca/taxonomy/term/1611]rabble.ca[/url]. And he seems to be an anti-poverty activist. Maybe there's hope yet.

Fri, 2014-03-07 22:53

#349

Pogo

Comparing Obama increasing the black vote and the Ontario NDP getting general non voters to the polls is ridiculous. Reasons for not voting are complex, pretending that all it takes is a good anti-poverty platform is just stupid.

Fri, 2014-03-07 23:31

#350

epaulo13

..it's not stupid when you consider what just took place in new york city elections.

eta:

..what your not addressing pogo is that the poverty groups and labour are saying what the ondp is offering is unacceptable. and the ondp is saying they are not accepting what the poverty groups and labour are proposing. this is a major split. and now a power struggle is emerging and it's no longer enough to say the libs and cons are worse. this is very healthy as i see it. lets see where this leads.

Sat, 2014-03-08 07:46

#351

Skinny Dipper

Pogo wrote:

"The key to an NDP majority lies in the 40% of families that do not turn out to the polls" What a bunch of rubbish.

I am actually going to agree with you, Pogo. I know another commenter had corrected the actual quote. However, I think you are correct in your brief comment.

When Jack Layton's federal NDP won a majority of the seats in Quebec and performed generally well outside Quebec, his campaign promises were targetted at existing middle-class, older voters. He did frame his promises with social democratic discourse. However, he did not go after lower-income, young non-voters. Why? It's because the marginal costs of reaching young non-voters would have been extremely high. It's better to use campaign resources on existing voters--the one's that have generally voted in previous elections.

In Ontario, I do think it is fine that Andrea Horwath is seeking a different group of voters--middle class, middle aged to older people, and those who have actually voted in previous elections. For the Ontario NDP (and the federal party), there is a need to attract new kinds of voters as organized labour in declining manufacturing industries cannot guarantee a good block of votes for the NDP. The problem with Andrea Horwath is that she is not presenting a case for social democracy to middle class voters. She is just presenting boutique politics with consumer promises to the voters. When Ms. Horwath initially refused to comment to reporters about the minimum wage, her failure was not that she refused to support a $14 living/minimum wage. It was that she refused to present a social democratic case for those making little money.

My problem with Andrea Horwath is that I would not know what kind of government she would lead if she were to become the next premier. Would it be social democratic? Would it be liberal? Would it be conservative? I don't know. Fortunately for Ms. Horwath, election campaigns tend to be highly centralized now. Even if loyal social-democratic NDP supporter refuse to participate actively in the next campaign, it won't affect the Ontario NDP that much as most voters decide on how to vote based on party reputations and their leaders. The local candidates and their volunteers may change the local vote by five percent at the most. A good centralized campaign can swing votes ten to 20 percentage points.

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