ONT NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will become Premier of Ontario 2

terrytowel wrote:

We are going to the polls! Andrea just annnounced she wants an election

"I have lost confidence in Kathleen Wynne and her ability to deliver," Horwath said Friday.  "I cannot in good conscience support a government that people don’t trust anymore."

"This budget is not a solid plan for the future. It's a mad dash to escape the scandals. It's time for change. We do not support this government any longer."

A terrible decision.  I guess she plans to continue  to move to run to the right of the Liberals.

NorthReport wrote:

Like the federales, the Ontario Liberals don't walk the talk.

Terrible for  a couple of political parties I agree.

But looking good for another one. 

North Report Gerry Caplan said on Power & Politics last night it makes no sense for the NDP to go into this election at 20% in the polls. And he can't understand Andrea's logic. So could you maybe explain what Andrea is thinking?

Actually there are some real advantages for the NDP having a three way race.

Canadians are more and more cluing in to the fact there are 2 right-wing parties, one that tells  the truth about being right-wing, and one that lies about it.

What's also great is that their right-wing lackeys in the press are bashing each other so much, they are just canceling each other out.  

Andrea is one smart and politically-sharp person. Each time I see her at one of her presers I am nore and more impressed with her abilities.

NorthReport wrote:

Actually Josh if you weren't so lazy, and had taken a look at Kinsella's website today, you would realize that Kinsella did not think the NDP would do what Andrea just announced, so please go back to sleep.

I guess the difference between predicting whether something will  happen and wanting something to happen escapes you.

This coming Ontario election is kinda like the David and Golaith story.

It pits the two big powerful Liberal and Conservative right-wing parties, wanting to crush the tiny "but representing the people" NDP party. Looking forward to see how this story unfolds.

Andrea Horwath

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Horwath

jerrym wrote:

In my opinion, Andrea made the right decision politically (I''ll leave the policy issues aside for the moment). This does not mean she will win or even that they will automatically retain or even increase her 22 to 27% in the polls. However, if she did support the Liberals there was a growing danger that both within the party and outside that the perception would be the NDP is the left wing of the Liberal party and it would also be accused of trying to prolong their careers and salaries (something Hudak is already doing that would only have become louder with passing time). It is also possible that some of the alleged drop in NDP popularity since March arises from some voters feeling the NDP were not willing to defeat the Liberals in spite of the growing scandals, their poor economic performance and their Con-lite policies. 

If the Liberals were successful (which I doubt because they will implement as little of the NDP-like policies as possible and because of scandals simmering away on the backburner suddenly bursting into flames) in an extended term thanks to the NDP support and adoption of NDP policies, the general public would credit and vote for the Liberals. If the Liberals collapsed, the Hudak PCs would claim the NDP were the enablers of the relatively long term of a Liberal minority government that failed.

Remember that Layton pulled the plug on the 2011 Con government by voting in favour of a contempt of Parliament motion when the NDP were around 14% in the polls and many of the punditry proclaiming there was every chance they could lose some of its MPs. It is even possible that that could have happened if the campaign had went another way. However, I doubt the NDP would have been able to be seen as a plausible alternative to very prolonged scandal-plagued Con government for many voters if they had supported the Cons for much longer.

It maybe politically advantageous but in terms of policy for average canadians its disastrous. We keep scuttling progressive budgets, that only minority govs can be made to do, when we could simply vote out minority govs during other votes of confidence a few months later. Im not see what advantage the 10 years of tory rule when we scuttled a budget that would have finally brought us national childcare.

Now we are scuttling the desperately needed and late in coming CPP enhancement. WTH do we stand for anymore?

mark_alfred wrote:

Good press conference.  "Instead of fixing the mess in our electricity system, the Liberals want to drive hydro rates even higher with a firesale of our assets in a rerun of the failed privatisation of Ontario Hydro by the Conservatives.  You don't heat the house by burning the furniture."

I think Andrea is playing this well. She has guts to pull the plug like this, and it was very canny to let the press have a sleepless night. Yesterday, she would have been sharing the stage with Wynne, today she gets the final word, all on her own.

jerrym wrote:

A one year extension of the Liberal government by NDP support would mean most, if not all, of these progressive policies would be barely implemented or only promised for future implementation (see pension), and would be easily wiped off the books by a Hudak government, which would likely have a greater chance of being elected as governments that are perceived as tired and scandal-ridden, as well as parties that enable their continuation in power, usually get punished even harder for staying way too long. 

It depends how they are implemented. ONDP can make it a condition of support that implemetation be quicker. You dont see anyone talking about how a tory gov will gut past budget improvements of just a year or 2 ago. 

I don't see why anyone thinks that the results of an election in a year, are going to be substantively different than they will be this year. Why bother waiting?

Rokossovsky wrote:

I don't see why anyone thinks that the results of an election in a year, are going to be substantively different than they will be this year. Why bother waiting?

Yeah, because what does policy matter.

josh wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

I don't see why anyone thinks that the results of an election in a year, are going to be substantively different than they will be this year. Why bother waiting?

Yeah, because what does policy matter.

Nice one! For guy who refuses to acknowledge or even attempt to discuss the clear policy distinctions between a promise not to liquidate important government assets such as Ontario Hydro, and a pledge not to increase the tax burden on middle and low income earners by rolling back corporate tax cuts, and one that promises to liquidate those assets, in order to pay down a deficit largely caused by irresponsible corporate tax cuts.

Not even once have you attempted to do so. Let alone broach any of the other little tidbits, like the apparent desire to cut back on access to seniors to hospital beds in order to fund pay raises for home care workers, because its "more economic" and pay for 3 billion dollars a year worth of tranist infrastructure, not by raising more money, but by shifting taxes from other programs -- not that you would even dare consider what Wynne is going to cut in order to achieve this end through this means.

The discussion that my comment is included in is one about the prospects of a Conservative ictory. If that is the only issue that people care about, then I believe its worth noting that Conservative victory is as likely next year, as it is this year.

You can't guide yourself by fear of Hudak for ever. He is (or someone like him) is certainly going to win, sooner or later, especially if we keep on providing corrupt Liberal government through our efforts to game the system, or as Horwath quite rightly pointed out, in the letter she wrote on the budget:

Andrea Horwath wrote:

If we sold out today then, in the next election when the public looked for change, they would punish Liberals and New Democrats alike. We can’t let that scenario play out.

In fact, the PCs are even more likely to win, given another year of this bullshit coming from the Liberals.

Rokossovsky wrote:

You can't guide yourself by fear of Hudak for ever. He is (or someone like him) is certainly going to win, sooner or later,

That is by no means a given.

josh wrote:

"Or ban unions outright."

Well that's a blessing.

No, they only have made it as hard as possible to form one. And as difficult as possible to have an effective one. Both models Hudak is eager to follow.

If the unions can't defend themselves by collective action, outside of politicking they are done for sooner or later. In fact, with each passing Liberal year they get weaker and weaker. In the last round of job actions the teachers unions were afraid to take on a 30,000 fine to cover the costs of a one day strike action, and demobilized their entire union of 70,000 members after weeks of preparation, because some Liberal appointed suits at the OLRB told them to "sit puppy".

I don't know if the ETFO and OSSTF leadership have even considered what the ramifications of supporting the Liberals in giving the Ministry of Education broad powers to determine precise framework of negotiation in a central bargaining context. Have they considered what Hudak would do to them, in scenario, now that they have essentially surrendered almost all local bargaining power.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

josh wrote:

She must be listening to Warren Kinsella, and following him down the rabbit hole.

Speaking of rabbit holes, the full quote was:

terrytowel wrote:

Gerry Caplan was on Power & Politics tonight and he criticized Andrea saying he doesn't understand her and hasn't for quite a while. The Liberal budget is a budget Andrea herself would have created if she was Premier says Caplan.

He also went on to say he can't understand her logic, wanting to trigger an election when they are at around 20% in the polls. And that she hasn't taken a stand on any of the important issues.

Yeah. That was a pretty good call on Caplan's part, given that no position had been taken by the NDP on the budget last night. Do you think he got a copy of his talking points before Andrea pulled the plug on the government?

Oh, and I have a bridge to sell you in Florida, if you think that is an accurate reflection of what Caplan actually said. Oh, but wait, you actually think that the NDP is "running to the right" of the Liberals by being opposed to taxes on lower and middle income people, proposing "the same" minimum wage deal, opposing privatization of Ontario Hydro and by proposing taxes on capital, so it looks like you have a few title deeds out on swampland already.

I saw that segment, and I think the way terrytowel described Caplan's statement is pretty accurate. The way I interpreted it, he was giving his opinion that the ONDP would be best off supporting the budget, but that he suspected they would defeat it and pay the price in the coming election. I personally feel that jerrym has it right, and the ONDP had little choice but to defeat the Liberals now, and take their chances in the campaign, but Caplan clearly was disagreeing with that point of view.

Did he? Fair enough.

Nonetheless, it is time to stop playing chicken little and have this fight. There is no way around it. The sky is going to fall eventually.. It must happen sooner or later. I think Horwath made the right decision politically and tactically.

The media people were really in a lather at that press conference. The Liberals are really desperate. I am sure of only one thing, and that is the Liberals are going to loose. I am confident that the Consevatives have a good shot at a minority government.

But the NDP have everthing to gain and nothing to loose. The Liberals are not going to go higher than they are now, and the NDP can only going up.

speaking of which:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election-looms-as-n...

The Liberals on Thursday tabled a sprawling, left-leaning budget containing a new provincial pension plan, increased wages for personal support and child-care workers and $29-billion for new subways and highways.

But New Democrat sources say those close to Ms. Horwath are bullish about their party’s chances in an election. Party insiders think the time is right to scoop up disaffected Liberal supporters and replace the Grits as the dominant party on the centre-left. The Liberals have been beset by spending scandals over the last two years, including the billion-dollar cancellations of two gas-fired power plants.

The NDP are also worried about being seen as subservient to the Liberals if they prop their government up too long, one source said.

Unionist will now get his chance to vote on Thursday, June 12 

Wynne is being guided by those brilliant strategists Scott Reid and David Herle, of the Paul Matin will win 250 seats fame.

It shows.

Never mind the EKOS attempt to manipulate today, and all the other Liberal CBC, and the rest of the mainstream press nonsense.

Federally the NDP is leading in Quebec and BC, and tied with the Liberals in Ontario.

Andrea showed her mettle today, has a good shot of becoming Premier this time around.

Wait until the camapign gets going and the massive Liberal scandals and attempted coverups start getting discussed.  

As a Manitoban, believe me when I say I have some very serious criticisms of the NDP government here. In 15 years of power, they have not acted on labour issues like anti-scab and automatic certification. They have not done nearly enough to reduce the apalling level of poverty in this province. Winnipeg's infrastructure is crumbling. And, don't get me wrong, I like small business too, but isn't a 0% tax rate on them a bit of overkill?

That said, having lived in 6 of the 10 provinces in this country, I can assure you that while living in poverty is never good, Manitoba is one of the better provinces to be in if you have to. Things like an absence of health care premiums and lower pharmacare deductibles do make a very big difference in the lives of ordinary people who are struggling. Having tuition fees at $4000 enables the access of far more people of modest means to education than does $9000. The Manitoba government's apprenticeship program, which partners with trade unions and business, is an excellent program which I myself hope to use in the coming months/years.

The fact is that Manitoba is poor - we do not have the resources of Alberta, BC or Saskatchewan, and we are not in possession of the concentration of people, industry and capital that Ontario and Quebec have. While we have a very low unemployment rate, people generally make less and this restricts the tax base that we can draw on for revenues. This makes us reliant on decreasing federal transfers for about 40% of the provincial budget. On this front, things are better now than they were in 1999. In the 1990s, the propulation was in decline and the economy was at risk of entering a contraction death spiral. The NDP's handling of the very successful provincial nominee program has allowed the province to grow by accepting and integrating upwards of 20000 new immigrants a year - a huge number, on a per capita basis.

This is not all to excuse the Manitoba NDP for all the things they haven't done, but they have done much that is worth celebrating. Manitoba is a cold, wretched miserable place, geographically speaking, in which to live - our NDP government makes it a little more livable. 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

[Gary Doer in Manitoba also came from a union background and not only was he no friend of organized labour while in office, but the labour movement in Manitoba has treated this NDP government with kid gloves. They have not been as forceful about anti-labour initiatives brought in by the NDP as they would have been if those same actions were to be carried out by Liberals or PCs, and their political strategy begins and ends with, "let's keep the NDP elected in Manitoba forever and ever and everything will be fine and happy." Just because someone comes out of the labour movement does not automatically mean that (s)he can walk on water, and it's not as if the labour movement itself is immune from corruption or other problems. It's also not unheard of that a politican who starts out great backslides over time.

In the cases of Manitoba and Quebec, I do think that progressive-ish governments helped.

DaveW wrote:

on a side note, Winnipeg has bounced back with a lot of optimistic projects from the Human Rights museum to the Jets return,  the Bluebombers stadium etc., and people are feeling better about themselves, it seems

viewed from Montreal, Winnipeg was paired with us in a"conjunctural decline" in the 1970s and 1980s, as the cities each lost their historic roles to others further west; but each seems to have regained a footing, and some optimism allowed

dunno if NDP had much to do with that

as is the case with many longer threads, getting off-topic;

I urge mods or somebody to open an "Ontario elections 2014"" thread for ease of use

re the Human Rights museum in Winnipeg,

I had only heard the basics; do tell if there are problems there , and I will be all ears over in the Manitoba/Prairies whatever forum

As much as I have criticized Andrea Horwath on her policies and some of her strategies, I do think this was the right time for the Ontario NDP to stop supporting the Liberal government.  If the party were to keep supporting an incompetent Liberal government, voters could just assume that the NDP would be an extension of the Liberal Party.

I do think that Andrea Horwath's move to NDP in a rightward direction is designed to attract the support of both Liberal and moderate Conservative supporters.  Some union leaders may criticize her for not supporting a progressive Liberal budget.  Then again, those same union leaders will likely be supporting the Liberals in the election campaign.  If an election were put off for another year or two, those same union leaders would still likely support the Liberals.

I will agree with Rokossovsky that unions like ETFO and the OSSTF need to start being much more pro-active in opposing government austerity measures such as imposing "contracts" on their members.  When ETFO had its one-day strike, the government could laugh a the union and its members knowing that its imposed "contract" could still be implemented.  The government stripped away the rights of unions to bargain fairly.  It will do so again no matter which party forms the government.  If the unions wish to stop such stripping of union rights, then the unions will need to get together and possibly go on a general strike (legal or not) in order to stop the futher erosion on unionized workers' rights.

Skinny Dipper wrote:

As much as I have criticized Andrea Horwath on her policies and some of her strategies, I do think this was the right time for the Ontario NDP to stop supporting the Liberal government.  If the party were to keep supporting an incompetent Liberal government, voters could just assume that the NDP would be an extension of the Liberal Party.

I do think that Andrea Horwath's move to NDP in a rightward direction is designed to attract the support of both Liberal and moderate Conservative supporters.  Some union leaders may criticize her for not supporting a progressive Liberal budget.  Then again, those same union leaders will likely be supporting the Liberals in the election campaign.  If an election were put off for another year or two, those same union leaders would still likely support the Liberals.

I will agree with Rokossovsky that unions like ETFO and the OSSTF need to start being much more pro-active in opposing government austerity measures such as imposing "contracts" on their members.  When ETFO had its one-day strike, the government could laugh a the union and its members knowing that its imposed "contract" could still be implemented.  The government stripped away the rights of unions to bargain fairly.  It will do so again no matter which party forms the government.  If the unions wish to stop such stripping of union rights, then the unions will need to get together and possibly go on a general strike (legal or not) in order to stop the futher erosion on unionized workers' rights.

Absolutely. The unions need to stand on their own two feet.

As for the election, while I disagree there has been much of a political shift to the right in anything other than "tone", the fact is that if the only issue of concern is the potential of a Tim Hudak government coming into being, then there is no time like the present to resolve that issue, now rather than next year.

I really can't see the political landscape changing significantly between now and then.