Ontario General Election 2014

FYI Skinny Dipper, policy here is that we don't post entire articles, but post a relevant quote with a link. Thanks.

Unionist wrote:

Seems to me that someone who cares about people would have welcomed the positive parts of the budget, expressed a serious concern about trust, and laid down some red lines - "implement the pension plan by DATE X, or we'll support a non-confidence vote". Likewise with other positive aspects. Then, when the government falls, it falls for reasons that people can understand - betrayal of their promises which sincere folks were prepared to support - not electoral opportunism on the part of Ms. Horwath and her handlers.

An excellent point, seeing as Wynne was most intent that no such thing might transpire, given how fast she ran down the Lieutenant governors office to dissolve the government without debating the budget, while even at that same time, Liberal organizers were distributing literature about how the NDP had "Voted" against increased child care benefits.

Wynne, very easily could have given Horwath time to consider her position, table the budget and then work through issues, and then wait for her friends at the Council of Trades and Unifor to apply pressure. But she wanted none of that messy democratic process stuff in the way of her "best shot" chance of winning a majority.

I imagine that Horwath would be intractable, but obviously the Liberals thought an election was to their advantage. There isn't any way around that fact.

The government did not "fall". It was dissolved, in point of fact.

Unionist wrote:

Salutin's article is mostly drivel, IMO, because it tries to situate policies and parties as "left" or "right" or something in between, terms which mean different things to different people. I prefer to look at policies and consider whether they serve the interests of the vast majority of people, or those of the wealthy powerful elite, or neither, or both. And whether those who propose them are sincere, and linked to popular movements, or just self-serving and opportunistic.

For example, sending every hydro user a $100 rebate. Is that "left" or "right"? Or just plain what it looks like (cynical politiciking)?

It does. But not so according to this well known press release runner for the Liberal party who works at TorStar, he seems to believe that Horwath's $100 plan is actually cover for some kind of crazy "revanchist radical leftist" scheme to reconstitute Ontario Hydro as a single publically owned crown corporation.

Quote:

By going after the gravy train. And putting Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Horwath would reconstitute the old Ontario Hydro, which was chopped into pieces by the last Tory government (it begat OPG, Hydro One, etc.). She’d also rein in CEO salaries. And curb exports of surplus hydro at low prices — just like that.

The Liberal pundits at Torstar seem to be in confusion at how best to skin the Horwath cat, the right "business Liberal", is accusing Horwath of being a naive and unrealistic radical socialist about to "nationalize" power generation, and the "progressive coffee shop and latte's Liberal" seems to be of the opinion she has gone over to the dark side with Rob Ford.

Regardless, Liberals agree, Horwath is bad news, whether it is because she is a silly leftist with notions about the state "capturing the commanding heights of the economy", or goostepping her way to oblivion as far as "polite company" because of so called "right-wing" populist posturing.

Pogo wrote:

The important note is that the Liberals are the ones who pulled the plug and called an election that clearly they were very very prepared for.

Had Horwath said: "Good start, but it needs work and timelines, and we're prepared to sit down and do what's needed for Ontarians" - there would not conceivably have been an election call. Wynne wouldn't have dared. This way, her excuse was ready-made - two parties holding a majority of seats declaring they'd oppose the budget.

Quote:

If you want to say in this hypotheical world the NDP could have negotiated all their issues, you first have to show that the Liberals had any interest in negotiating.

Um, absolutely totally wrong. I've spent my life in the workplace, and in the union, negotiating with people (employers) who have zero interest in negotiating anything anytime anywhere. They'd prefer a non-union world where "management rights" rule supreme, encumbered only by the few minimum standards and charter rights that exist.

It's the same in politics. The skill comes in creating an "interest" on the part of your enemies, your adversaries, your potential allies. If you can't do that, then you will accomplish nothing in life. Because no two groups or persons have identical interests. Life is about compromise. You are judged by what issues you choose to compromise on, and how far, vs. where you stand firm.

Did you hear the Liberals say they had no interest in negotiating budget items? Source, please. And what did the NDP say? That they would oppose the budget. They handed the advantage to Wynne on a silver platter. They won't even get to keep the platter. And Horwath's stance was utterly, unabashedly, unprincipled - because it was grounded in a miscalculation (probably) of short-term electoral gain rather than actually bringing Ontario out of austerity and inequality.

 

And lest we forget. Andrea did offer a basis of negotiation. She put forward an open letter asking that the Liberals include a "modest" increase in corporate taxes in an open letter.

Kathleen Wynne refused to discuss it and made no statements that anything was negotiable.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/05/08/andrea_horwaths_rightwing_populism_salutin.html

"Andrea Horwath's right-wing populism: Salutin After years of possibly delusional but honourable attempts by the NDP to stay anchored to its social democratic principles, Andrea Horwath marks a change.

Published on Thu May 08 2014 Open policard for MayorRob Ford  Andrea Horwath has led Canada’s NDP into a new era. They’ve floundered over an absence of clear principles for a long time, which has been true of formerly socialist and social democratic parties everywhere. It’s been a hard run, with the zeitgeist firmly in their face. But they maintained a sense that, despite their own behaviour, they still believed they were in the grand old traditions. It may have been delusional but it was an honourable attempt to stay anchored. Horwath marks the change. She’s a right-wing populist, full out.

[Edited by me in attempt to keep within copyright issues]

Okay, so Hudak has just lost the election.

Tim Hudak would cut 100,000 public sector jobs if Tories win Ontario election

Quote:

The Tory leader has already said that teachers will be targeted. He also vowed to eliminate agencies like the Ontario Power Authority, Local Health Integration Networks and the College of Trades.

Those steps would be coupled with a two-year wage freeze for everyone in the broader public sector including politicians, civil servants and anyone else paid by taxpayers.

The number of administrative jobs across government would also be reduced and Hudak would shrink the size of cabinet from 27 to 16 ministers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/tim-hudak-would...

"He just gave 3 million public sector workers 100,000 reasons to vote against him." Smokey Thomas, president of OPSEU

So he's going to create a million jobs by firing 100,000 people. I guess that's Tory math. And like my husband pointed out, it isn't just the public sector workers who won't vote for Hudak - it's also family members, un- or under-employed by the weak Ontario economy, who rely on the person in the family with the public sector job. (Like my family, for instance.) And if he's firing all these people, who are going to be patronizing the small businesses supposedly magically created by the public sector bloodbath?

Such a move could trigger a massive recession. Even people on the right are saying so.

Thank you, Tim Hudak! I mean that.

Sineed wrote:

Okay, so Hudak has just lost the election.

Thank you, Tim Hudak! I mean that.

If people are scared of those cuts, is it possible he is hoping for vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP, so his party can come up the middle?

terrytowel wrote:

Sineed wrote:

Okay, so Hudak has just lost the election.

Thank you, Tim Hudak! I mean that.

If people are scared of those cuts, is it possible he is hoping for vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP, so his party can come up the middle?

Yeah. With Hudak throwing the election its going to be tough using fear tactics to drive strategic voting. Once soft Tory voters start bleeding to the Liberals, that will free up some "strategic" space for NDP-Liberal voters to move NDP. Then again, the party of fear can expect even more Tories to start bleeding to them if the NDP gets momentum, and looks like it might govern.

The party of fear relies on strategic voting both ways, NDPrs go to the Liberals when the Tories are strong, and Tories go Liberal when the NDP does well.

You can see this swing in the federal polling, where a lot of left Tories first moved over to Trudeau, when the NDP was strong, but now that the Federal NDP doesn't look so competitive, they are drifting back to Harper.

terrytowel wrote:

Sineed wrote:

Okay, so Hudak has just lost the election.

Thank you, Tim Hudak! I mean that.

If people are scared of those cuts, is it possible he is hoping for vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP, so his party can come up the middle?

Tim Hudak is probably hoping for a Liberal-NDP vote split.

My prediction is that if the Conservatives poll in the high 30s, I expect non-Conservative voters to gravitate toward the Liberals in order to stop Hudak.  Voters may switch to the NDP only if the Liberals make some major mistakes in the campaign.

If the Conservatives start polling in the high 20s or lower, I think that non-Conservative voters may be safe in supporting either the Liberals or NDP (or Greens).

Pogo wrote:

Negotiations would have provided an opportunity for the Liberals to grab attention and show that the NDP has at least half-hearted support for their plan.  In this light negotiations would achieve nothing except give Liberals extra support.

Well, that's where we part company.

Several budget elements are not only positive in and of themselves - they are NDP policies (like the Ontario Retirement Plan). The ONDP should simply have hailed these budget items, pledged support for them, conditional on the Liberals not being habitual chronic liars as before. To worry about the Liberals grabbing attention - or being able to say the NDP had half-hearted support for their plan - is the worry of those who put party labels ahead of the interests of the people.

You said you're a negotiator. You never commented on my point (in opposition to yours) that negotiations has nothing to do with whether anyone is "interested" in getting a deal. You have to get a deal regardless - or if not, you ensure that whoever walks away, you retain the advantage.

Horwath said she'd oppose the budget. She didn't say which parts. That showed her true interest. This is not a compliment.

 

 

My point was the act of negotiation in themselves was to the advantage to the Liberals as it gave credibility to their program in general.

http://democraticvotingcanada.blogspot.ca/2014/05/rick-salutins-hatchet-...

 

 Some intelligent thought on Rick Salutin's article, which I 100% agree with.

 

 Rick sold out to the star, which honestly has declared war against the Ontario NDP this election.

 

 I'm used to newspapers being biased against the NDP, but this time the star isn't just biased, its declared war against the ONDP and it all hands on deck for it. They're gunning for Andrea Horwath.

 See they got a taste for power when they went gunning for Rob Ford and basically destroyed his political career, and now they're trying to do the same thing to Andrea.

 And no I don't like Rob Ford, he's the worst thing to happen to Toronto, and a national embarrassment, but the honest truth is the star went gunning for Rob Ford in the hopes of destroying him, all hands on deck, beyond what can be concidered ethical journalism. And while I won't mourn Rob Ford's career, Olivia Chow while be a much better Mayor, they're trying to do the same thing to Andrea and that I have problem with.

 Thankfully she's no Rob Ford, so it won't work, they're more likely to alienate a fair sized chunk of thier readership instead.

Pogo wrote:

I am sure the NDP could have offered a olive branch, but let us assume for a moment that the Liberals were intending to go to call an election as soon as possible.  Negotiations would have provided an opportunity for the Liberals to grab attention and show that the NDP has at least half-hearted support for their plan.

Your assumption is correct, but the media have missed it.

The minority Liberal government has done nothing about new electoral boundaries. The current ridings are the same as the federal ridings based on the 2001 census, except in the North where they are still based on the 1991 census, giving the North an extra MPP compared with the federal MPs. But the 2015 federal election will be for an extra 15 Ontario MPs. On the votes cast in the 2011 federal election, the 15 additional MPs would be 11 Conservatives, two New Democrats and two Liberals.

Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath both needed the election to be held this year, or the failure to have new boundaries would have become an obvious gerrymander. So it was either this fall, in the middle of municipal elections in every Ontario municipality (now held only every four years) or this spring. Insiders all knew it was going to be this spring.

Andrea Horwath would have voted non-confidence before the budget, but Ontario’s rules (for some weird reason) did not allow this. So we have an election on, ostensibly, the Liberal platform/budget.

The NDP is left having to change the channel. Oddly, Hudak and Wynne are now helping!

 Comparing Andrea Horwath to Thacher, Mike Harris, Mitt Romney (who in his run for President of America was to the right to Stephen Harper), and so on is the most offensive tripe I'me ever read in the star. Even Thomas Walkom, who regularly seems to accuse the NDP of being the new liberal party, and is very critical of the NDP, never crossed that line.

Yeah Wynn's obsession with Stephen Harper is just biazzare and unproductive. Someone needs to remind her he's not running in this election. I can't stand him either, but you can't base your election campaign on fighting the Prime Minister in Ontario. It reminds me how she tried to shadow box with Mulcair during the Kitchener Waterloo bi election over national unity. Dumb, dumb, dumb. It worked out well for her, not.

Tim Hudak, I still mantain is a closet agent of the NDP, a Trojan Horse whose purpose is to sabotage the PCs chances of being government, and his latest debuckle, a million jobs, minus a 100,000, not to mention the other fuckups so far, has me convinced I'm right. These are not accidental fucks ups there delibrate.

Or maybe he's just a fuck up ;p

Andrea Horwath appears so far to be having the best campaign so far.
.

It's kind of sad that we have gone from people continuing to gripe about those foolish posters that came out four years ago, and which thankfully never made the cut, to completely ad hominem smear jobs of the kind Salutin is making.

The posters, suggest something about the NDP, but more likely than not they were a "trial balloon" marketing scheme, and not really worth continued attention 4 years later. I am glad they didn't go down that route. There comes a time when focussing on aesthetic trivialization just become more trivial aesthetics, and we should move on.

I always thought those posters were just something that some friend of the family made up, and a bad idea. But let's talk some policy, here. We owe it to ourselves.

Obviously there are some problems with the marketing pitch of the ONDP, but that doesn't make them "less progressive' than the Liberals by any stretch.

This Liberal budget is a real trojan horse. The real question about the NDP is if it will live up to its promise. And that is doubtful.

"Staggering debt"

These Ontario Liberals are sounding more and more like the "Keystone Kops".

Ex-Liberal finance minister warned his party that deep spending cuts are needed to balance Ontario budget

It didn’t escape notice that his warning was akin to a Kardashian tut-tutting someone about overexposure: Ontario’s debt rose from $154-billion to $281-billion during Mr. Duncan’s own time as Finance Minister. But he had warned about debt issues, he said, before he left office.

That much is true. Seemingly emboldened by the fact that it wasn’t his problem to solve anymore, Mr. Duncan went on an anti-debt crusade in his last months at the legislature. Given the province’s debt levels, he said in January, 2013, low interest rates were a “ticking time bomb.” He warned contenders for the Liberal leadership that spending cuts would have to be doubled if the government was still going to reach a balanced budget by 2017-18.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/09/even-an-ex-liberal-finance-minis...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Cops

Rokossovsky wrote:

It's kind of sad that we have gone from people continuing to gripe about those foolish posters that came out four years ago, and which thankfully never made the cut, to completely ad hominem smear jobs of the kind Salutin is making.

The criticisms of those trial posters were that they ignored the NDP's long standing commitment to feminist principles and espoused a political aesthetics rather than actual political policies that would change the direction of the province. They were ad glossies rather than platform. They may have been ultimately rejected (if that's the case, their rejection owes no small part to the backlash the trials received), but at virtually every step of Horwath's tenure, she and her team have used exactly the same approach as the one epitomized by those posters. From her orange high heel shoe logo to crowing about a most-shared social media image (!) to, of course, her schizophrenic criticisms of the Wynne budget and her oft-evinced hame that the ONDP enjoys labour support.

So if you think the posters are just a sad gripe, I guess you'll never understand they are occasionally referenced, or why not everyone who cares about actually improving the lives of people are not falling over themselves in excitment over Horwath's depressing campaign.

 

Why the Ontario Liberals are likely to lose

 

 

It is my considered opinion that Syd Ryan jumped the shark and the "strategic" reality is that if the only issue of concern for labour is the fact that Tim Hudak might form the next government, it is time to unhitch themselves from the Liberal albatros, and 100% support the NDP.

The Liberals, regardless of any policy distinctions that may or may not be evident between them and the NDP, are seriously wounded in the credibility department and a large number of voters are very turned off. What this means is that the "hold your nose and vote Liberal" crowd are going to have very little insentive to get to the polls. I think that outside of Toronto the Liberal rank and file are demoralized, and organizationally weak.

On the other hand Conservatives are going to be very motivated now that Hudak has promised to fire a whole bunch of bad guys.

There is a big difference between voter "preference" in opinion polls, and motivated voters.

Support from rank and file teachers for one is going to be very weak indeed. Negative votes "Anybody but" campaigns are not inspiring. The Liberals might tread water, but as likely as not they are going down, not up.

The only non-Hudak party with real potential for growth and momentum is the NDP. So. There is no point in playing guessing games with polling statistics, and it is far better to commit to supporting the NDP in an effort to give them a push over the top.

It's labour, so not much chance of this, but this would be a truly inspired strategic decision. Otherwise, I think Liberals are going down and the Conservatives are getting a minority.

terrytowel wrote:

Sineed wrote:

Okay, so Hudak has just lost the election.

Thank you, Tim Hudak! I mean that.

If people are scared of those cuts, is it possible he is hoping for vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP, so his party can come up the middle?

That's precisely what he's hoping. Although since both he and Howarth both like talking about "job creators" there may be some confusion. The man is a clear and present danger. I hope the voters won't let him succeed with this strategy.

Catchfire wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

It's kind of sad that we have gone from people continuing to gripe about those foolish posters that came out four years ago, and which thankfully never made the cut, to completely ad hominem smear jobs of the kind Salutin is making.

The criticisms of those trial posters were that they ignored the NDP's long standing commitment to feminist principles and espoused a political aesthetics rather than actual political policies that would change the direction of the province. They were ad glossies rather than platform. They may have been ultimately rejected (if that's the case, their rejection owes no small part to the backlash the trials received), but at virtually every step of Horwath's tenure, she and her team have used exactly the same approach as the one epitomized by those posters. From her orange high heel shoe logo to crowing about a most-shared social media image (!) to, of course, her schizophrenic criticisms of the Wynne budget and her oft-evinced hame that the ONDP enjoys labour support.

So if you think the posters are just a sad gripe, I guess you'll never understand they are occasionally referenced, or why not everyone who cares about actually improving the lives of people are not falling over themselves in excitment over Horwath's depressing campaign.

I do not find Ms. Horwath's opinions, or statements on policy on small business or "rewarding the job" creators at all out of keeping with the general line presented by Olivia Chow, the prospetive mayor of Toronto. However, she generally gets a pass from the self-same folks who are now repeatedly trashing Horwath for being right wing.

For example, this:

Olivia Chow wrote:

“Small businesses are essential to create jobs in our city. And as your new mayor, I will not spend my time in Hollywood being a celebrity. I’ll respond to entrepreneurs to help them get started and cut taxes to help them grow,” said Olivia. “My investment in creating jobs can be afforded by reasonable property taxes, which rise around the rate of inflation.

I don't really understand the criticism on policy, here. I don't see how that bragging about most hits on an photo ties in. It evidences popularity.

To me the reliance on these "unreleased" four year old images as being overwhelmingly important in terms of discerning her political intent only signals a lack of real criticism on points of policy over the last 4 years. If, as you say, the backlash succeeded in preventing the idea from taking off that is great. Why beat the dead horse, when you win?

More substantively, you say that the ONDP has no claim to "labour" support. Actually, that claim is quite well established. Indeed, the "Labour Council's" routinely endorse ALL ONDP incumbents. All of them.

OPSEU and Steelworkers supported her view on the budget, and her decision. Unions that expressed "no opinion" on the decision to oppose the budget, such as OSSTF, and ETFO, had these things to say about the Wynne budget, much in line with the NDP position:

ETFO:

sam hammond wrote:

While the government will introduce a new tax rate for the top two percent of earners, there is virtually no change to the province’s corporate tax rate, one of the lowest in North America. Economic studies continue to show that such measures are not creating jobs.

OSSTF:

Austerity alive and well for education in Ontario wrote:

“Our members have more than done their part,” said Elliott, “but this government persists in treating public education workers in Ontario as easy targets for an agenda of restraint that even the government itself is no longer comfortable acknowledging.”

And again, the OFL and the Labour Council's always supports ALL ONDP incumbents. To me that sounds like a fair amount of "Labour support".

I am not exactly clear what was "schizophrenic" about Horwath's position on the budget. She sent a letter declaring that for the budget to get NDP support the Liberals would have to make a shift on the issue of corporate taxes, in order to fund transit infrastructure building, without "privatizing" it. (See ATU113 campaign against TTC privatization, here.) A position on corporate taxes echoed by Sam Hammond of ETFO, above.

Wynne failed to respond to this offer, and she announced she would not be supporting the budget, which as OPSEU observes is basically what I call a sugar-coated privatization bomb:

<a href="http://www.opseu.org/politicalaction/budget-and-2014-election.htm">OPSEU wrote:

In the Budget, these changes would have been paid for in three main ways: through small tax increases, big spending cuts, and significant asset sales and privatization.

[emphasis is theirs]

And finally this on the rank and file position: care to tell me exactly how many "labour activists" actually run on the Liberal ticket? Well, there is OSSTF president Ken Coran of course who ran as a Liberal, only to be met with teachers in his own union actively campaigning against him.

Quote:

Ken Coran’s campaign to win London West for the Ontario Liberals is getting a thumbs up from local teachers, at least officially.

But it’s a different story at the grassroots, where teachers took to Facebook and Twitter to vent their frustration after high school teachers from the Thames Valley District school board received emails from their union urging them to support Coran in the Aug. 1 byelection.

I'll throw this idea out there. Were it not for the lurking presence of Tim Hudak, then the entire union movement in Ontario would have resoundingly denounced the Liberal budget, and endorsed the NDP. Labour in Ontario supports both the NDP and the Liberals in opposition to Tim Hudak. That is their position.

I don't know where you are getting your information from. But it is faulty.

What is schizophrenic? I really don't get that. What do you mean? She was pretty clear in her press conference, I thought.

She doesn't trust the Liberals to deliver.

In her follow up letter, she stated that it was her opinion that the prospects for a Progressive Conservative victory would only get better of the next year under Liberal management, and supporting the LIberals would not benefit the NDP either. There is a great case for this, given that with seat redistribution in the next election, the Tories would have 10 more seats than they have now, whereas the Liberals and the NDP would only gain four, based on the past election results.

And no, Andrea Horwath is not going to "change the direction of the province". At best she might stop the bleeding.